Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I would be 'very worried' if I was Chancellor (msn.com)

Agreed, I would be too!

[Bricormortis]

Douglas De Zaster here, I'm thinking of putting a first ladder into uranium stocks, Kazatomprom, also Denison Mines, any opinions on this /  timing the sector ? 

Edit to say I am given to understand uranium futures seemed to have broken above a key range and a floor is forming under Sprott physical.

[HousePriceMania]

 

[Harley]

7 hours ago, Harley said:

Thanks for this @sancho panza.  To return the favour, I ran these through my own momentum model.  Only one data point but suggests any uptick from here is early days (green/amber/blank shows the strength of the signal) with any sustained uptick yet to follow through into the weekly and monthly data.  I have anonymised the data to stop any position taking off it as DYOR and no responsibility accepted, just one data point based on the way I look at things.

Is it just me or has this image disappeared?  I can report if needed.  Just a heat map though showing early days.

[Bobthebuilder]

5 minutes ago, Harley said:

Is it just me or has this image disappeared?  I can report if needed.  Just a heat map though showing early days.

I did wonder why you posted it, very thin on any info compared to your high standard. Just presumed it was some traders thing that I didn't understand.

[Gin]

13 minutes ago, Harley said:

Is it just me or has this image disappeared?  I can report if needed.  Just a heat map though showing early days.

Image disappeared .

[Jesus Wept]

9 hours ago, PrincessDrac said:

Rotated out of BP into BATS this morning. I'm an income seeker, the BATS Divs are so juicy. I like the quarter payments.

 

Just purchased a nice tranche of BATS myself this afternoon at 2535p.

I am still holding a large segment of BP  and RDSB which I bought in ladders at and around the lows - when all the ethical funds were selling up and they were unloved. I am keeping my BP and RDSB as there will be juicy dividends to come in the future.

I have a large chunk of unused ISA allowances sitting in cash. 
 

What to buy? What to buy? Or do I just sit out?  Is BT looking more buyable after giving up 25%+ since it hit 200p? 
 

Oil and Natural Gas Service plays? Enbridge ( @DurhamBorn - thank you) has done great recently.

Schlumberger? Lamprell? 

More telecoms? Vodaphone? Tefonica Brazil (VIV) ? Verizon 

Some miners Rio Tinto? 
 

Anyone else buying? Any targets? 

 

[Noallegiance]

23 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Just purchased a nice tranche of BATS myself this afternoon at 2535p.

I am still holding a large segment of BP  and RDSB which I bought in ladders at and around the lows - when all the ethical funds were selling up and they were unloved. I am keeping my BP and RDSB as there will be juicy dividends to come in the future.

I have a large chunk of unused ISA allowances sitting in cash. 
 

What to buy? What to buy? Or do I just sit out?  Is BT looking more buyable after giving up 25%+ since it hit 200p? 
 

Oil and Natural Gas Service plays? Enbridge ( @DurhamBorn - thank you) has done great recently.

Schlumberger? Lamprell? 

More telecoms? Vodaphone? Tefonica Brazil (VIV) ? Verizon 

Some miners Rio Tinto? 
 

Anyone else buying? Any targets? 

 

I bought Shib Inu today 

[Hancock]

6 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I would be 'very worried' if I was Chancellor (msn.com)

I was expecting to read an article about a gang of competent people looking to string the cunt up from a lamppost, you disappoint!

[UnconventionalWisdom]

Interview with our friend David Hunter: 

 

My summary: 

- Dollar tops here
- Target for S&P was 4500 in July, now it's shifted to 5300 (or possibly 5500)
- 42000 on the DOW
- 18000 on Nasdaq
- 2900 on Russel
- 80% drop in equities afterward the rise
- FAANGS, industrials, commodities all to rise together
- Big increases in airlines
- Bearish on oils- sees now as the top.
- Bonds have gone up, but will go down before going up even higher (to 2.5 on the 10 year).
- Gold to 2500 before the bust,
- silver to 50 before the bust (as stated before)
- Long consolidation for metals 
- Miners have been underperforming due to bad managers- got excited at the wrong time- speculation.
Now better run and a hated asset class.
- Metals the best asset class.
- Miners never been more profitable (See Jeff Clark Video from a couple of days ago on the same channel)
- Big crash afterwards with equities going down up to 80%
- Fragile place due to pressure of leverage combined with ecomonic difficulties due to Covid. 
- Monetary mistake will result in a big problem.
- Central banks between a rock and a hard place- either way they go will loead us to a bust.
- Recovery cycle. 
- Inflationary led recover-certain sectors will be hot.
- Bust contained in a 12 month period
- Peak to trough 6-9 months.
- Bulk of assets will be hit hard
- 2 assets to buck the trend- US treasuries and US dollar
- 80 on DXY, the bust will head to 120 (possibly 140)
- Treasuries 10 year to zero (maybe negative), 30 year 3% down to 0.5%) 
- Inflation to deflation in the bust. 
- FED will print like they have never printed before. 
- Leverage makes this the largest bust in history
- Central banks the only answer and they will do whatever to save the system.
- 20-30 trillion on the FED's balance sheet. Similar around the world.

[Harley]

Say @DurhamBorn.  You still holding TIMB?  I am.  A bit concerned about the chart pattern on the daily and weekly.  A textbook bearish descending triangle.  At least bearish most of the time.  Momentum looks quite good though.  Of course, if it goes the other way, wow!  Maybe some forex effects. 

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

Interview with our friend David Hunter: 

 

My summary: 

- Dollar tops here
- Target for S&P was 4500 in July, now it's shifted to 5300 (or possibly 5500)
- 42000 on the DOW
- 18000 on Nasdaq
- 2900 on Russel
- 80% drop in equities afterward the rise
- FAANGS, industrials, commodities all to rise together
- Big increases in airlines
- Bearish on oils- sees now as the top.
- Bonds have gone up, but will go down before going up even higher (to 2.5 on the 10 year).
- Gold to 2500 before the bust,
- silver to 50 before the bust (as stated before)
- Long consolidation for metals 
- Miners have been underperforming due to bad managers- got excited at the wrong time- speculation.
Now better run and a hated asset class.
- Metals the best asset class.
- Miners never been more profitable (See Jeff Clark Video from a couple of days ago on the same channel)
- Big crash afterwards with equities going down up to 80%
- Fragile place due to pressure of leverage combined with ecomonic difficulties due to Covid. 
- Monetary mistake will result in a big problem.
- Central banks between a rock and a hard place- either way they go will loead us to a bust.
- Recovery cycle. 
- Inflationary led recover-certain sectors will be hot.
- Bust contained in a 12 month period
- Peak to trough 6-9 months.
- Bulk of assets will be hit hard
- 2 assets to buck the trend- US treasuries and US dollar
- 80 on DXY, the bust will head to 120 (possibly 140)
- Treasuries 10 year to zero (maybe negative), 30 year 3% down to 0.5%) 
- Inflation to deflation in the bust. 
- FED will print like they have never printed before. 
- Leverage makes this the largest bust in history
- Central banks the only answer and they will do whatever to save the system.
- 20-30 trillion on the FED's balance sheet. Similar around the world.

Do I know buy a shit load of yeast? Only kidding. Someone always has to put the bread on the shelf. 

Just now, Phil said:

Do I know buy a shit load of yeast? Only kidding. Someone always has to put the bread on the shelf. 

Not know. Now. 

[Jesus Wept]

Brent Oil rising toward $85 

Hasn't been that high since late 2018.

Where is the top on this?

Crack up Boom anyone? 
 

Inflation adjusted oil price since 70s

[Harley]

17 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Crack up Boom anyone? 

Over 300% up since Mar20.  Maybe it's already had one?

[Jesus Wept]

12 minutes ago, Harley said:

Over 300% up since Mar20.  Maybe it's already had one?

What’s to stop it doubling to $160 on speculation and a continued “dash to assets”?

let’s face it though …..we’ve got one hell of a collapse coming….

 

 

 

 

[leonardratso]

uncle dave still deramping the oil;

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Say @DurhamBorn.  You still holding TIMB?  I am.  A bit concerned about the chart pattern on the daily and weekly.  A textbook bearish descending triangle.  At least bearish most of the time.  Momentum looks quite good though.  Of course, if it goes the other way, wow!  Maybe some forex effects. 

Iv got a small holding,mainly TEF Brasil down there,i was/am wanting to add some more TIMB,but have been building my Orange stake up instead so il likely add a few more when i get chance.A lot is currency and banking on that long bear reversing.

[Harley]

57 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

What’s to stop it doubling to $160 on speculation and a continued “dash to assets”?

let’s face it though …..we’ve got one hell of a collapse coming….

Quite possible.  It's done it before.  Maybe a pullback before though 

[SillyBilly]

My estimation on oil is in the short term (less than 2 years) there is more pushing it up than at any point in the last 10-15 years due to the clusterfuck that is COVID-19 policy on the market, so I will stick with the oilies until we see $100 a barrel at least,  intend to keep topping up on the troughs until then. Would start top slicing if that number hits, will hold for dividends if it doesn't get hit. All I can see in my work is things snowballing now in terms of inflation, it is ripping through everything and I think some are in denial about it. Once the lid is off, it is off. And I am betting quite significantly it is off.

 

 

[Seacrest]

How does the Uk post high,s from here unless there is a huge disconnect from reality.  I would expect profit warnings shortly,   N2EX for this afternoon has Electricity priced at over 40p per Kwh,  you also need to factor in the levvies imposed on Industry that will add 35% to the cost of the consumed,  so between 6pm and 8pm un hedged industry is paying somewhere around 56p per Kwh for power. 

CO2 is available from europe at almost 4 x the cost of the limited and now controlled supply  in the UK,  I could go on. profits from companies are being  eroded fast,  some Utilities will work 90 days payments  for Industry  if you are reporting out quarterly and using a yearly average as your cost base we are shortly going to see who is unhedged,  its far too late for anyone to hedge now until next autumn unless there is a huge disruption coming,  business who's suppliers have gone to the wall, cannot hedge outside of contract so the hedges have gone as well they are also now subject to next day pricing.  I guess the industry levvies  could be stopped for a while so they only pay consumed cost.    these are indeed interesting times...  

[Harley]

13 hours ago, Jesus Wept said:

Anyone else buying? Any targets? 

Got me thinking I should be more aggressive for my income portfolio.  Sure, ideal to avoid a loss but should I be that bothered if it's a proxy for an annuity, the stocks (not many) aren't silly over valued, and are in macro favourable sectors?  It should be the div amount and security that's key.  Of course a trading portfolio is something different.

[Harley]

12 hours ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

Interview with our friend David Hunter: 

 

My summary: 

- Dollar tops here
- Target for S&P was 4500 in July, now it's shifted to 5300 (or possibly 5500)
- 42000 on the DOW
- 18000 on Nasdaq
- 2900 on Russel
- 80% drop in equities afterward the rise
- FAANGS, industrials, commodities all to rise together
- Big increases in airlines
- Bearish on oils- sees now as the top.
- Bonds have gone up, but will go down before going up even higher (to 2.5 on the 10 year).
- Gold to 2500 before the bust,
- silver to 50 before the bust (as stated before)
- Long consolidation for metals 
- Miners have been underperforming due to bad managers- got excited at the wrong time- speculation.
Now better run and a hated asset class.
- Metals the best asset class.
- Miners never been more profitable (See Jeff Clark Video from a couple of days ago on the same channel)
- Big crash afterwards with equities going down up to 80%
- Fragile place due to pressure of leverage combined with ecomonic difficulties due to Covid. 
- Monetary mistake will result in a big problem.
- Central banks between a rock and a hard place- either way they go will loead us to a bust.
- Recovery cycle. 
- Inflationary led recover-certain sectors will be hot.
- Bust contained in a 12 month period
- Peak to trough 6-9 months.
- Bulk of assets will be hit hard
- 2 assets to buck the trend- US treasuries and US dollar
- 80 on DXY, the bust will head to 120 (possibly 140)
- Treasuries 10 year to zero (maybe negative), 30 year 3% down to 0.5%) 
- Inflation to deflation in the bust. 
- FED will print like they have never printed before. 
- Leverage makes this the largest bust in history
- Central banks the only answer and they will do whatever to save the system.
- 20-30 trillion on the FED's balance sheet. Similar around the world.

I ran through the charts and don't see much of this, but that depends on his timings, or at least sequencing.  For example,  I see more upside for DXY but agree 80 is a strong support level if/when it pulls back.  Also very hard to see more index highs but such is the state of things crazies could happen.  GDX not looking that strong IMO.  Seems to have broken through support with a bye bye kiss.  So he could be right eventually in each prediction but the hard part is sequencing and timing.  Still a kind of potential picture is quite useful, at least as a strawman to work from.  Just emphasises this stuff is interesting but is no substitute for your own hard work.  DYOR.

[Harley]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv got a small holding,mainly TEF Brasil down there,i was/am wanting to add some more TIMB,but have been building my Orange stake up instead so il likely add a few more when i get chance.A lot is currency and banking on that long bear reversing.

I'm down about 10% on TIMB.  That's quite good for me and nothing given the hold period and potential upside.  I'm struggling with Telcos given the charts and fundamentals, despite buying into the macro thesis.  I must try harder! 

PS:  A few more South American companies popped up this week as potential momentum value plays.   Mostly utilities.  I passed for some reason.  Maybe the debt levels.

[geordie_lurch]

Yet another 'conspiracy theory' becoming true here... smart meters are only there to control when the plebs can use electricity and now when we can charge these new amazing electric vehicles It's also interesting because TPTB are also admitting the national grid simply isn't able to power our energy needs going forward without such restrictions Just wait until this is also tied into your Covid Passport (Digital ID) and "social credit score" so if you haven't been a good 'citizen' you won't be allowed any power

"The United Kingdom plans to pass legislation that will see EV home and workplace chargers being switched off at peak times to avoid blackouts.

Announced by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps, the proposed law stipulates that electric car chargers installed at home or at the workplace may not function for up to nine hours a day to avoid overloading the national electricity grid.

As of May 30, 2022, new home and workplace chargers being installed must be “smart” chargers connected to the internet and able to employ pre-sets limiting their ability to function from 8 am to 11 am and 4 pm to 10 pm. However, users of home chargers will be able to override the pre-sets should they need to, although it’s not clear how often they will be able to do that.

In addition to the nine hours a day of downtime, authorities will be able to impose a “randomized delay” of 30 minutes on individual chargers in certain areas to prevent grid spikes at other times."

 

[HousePriceMania]

51 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Yet another 'conspiracy theory' becoming true here... smart meters are only there to control when the plebs can use electricity and now when we can charge these new amazing electric vehicles It's also interesting because TPTB are also admitting the national grid simply isn't able to power our energy needs going forward without such restrictions Just wait until this is also tied into your Covid Passport (Digital ID) and "social credit score" so if you haven't been a good 'citizen' you won't be allowed any power

"The United Kingdom plans to pass legislation that will see EV home and workplace chargers being switched off at peak times to avoid blackouts.

Announced by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps, the proposed law stipulates that electric car chargers installed at home or at the workplace may not function for up to nine hours a day to avoid overloading the national electricity grid.

As of May 30, 2022, new home and workplace chargers being installed must be “smart” chargers connected to the internet and able to employ pre-sets limiting their ability to function from 8 am to 11 am and 4 pm to 10 pm. However, users of home chargers will be able to override the pre-sets should they need to, although it’s not clear how often they will be able to do that.

In addition to the nine hours a day of downtime, authorities will be able to impose a “randomized delay” of 30 minutes on individual chargers in certain areas to prevent grid spikes at other times."

 

Which network connection are they using ?