Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[sancho panza]

#herecomesthebankingcrisis

the debate will flow down in the property crash thread but a heads up here if one hasn't been given already.June data has been released at RM and the liquidity has dried up.Price spiking higher on lower volume(no flats sold at all and only 7 terraces in a a psotcode with 40,000 hosueholds,7 detached sales explains the price action......

In normal times,probably 70-75% of registrations would be done by the three month mark.Even if they double June's(unlikely given lockdown ended in July) then they're 50% down on last year.

 

Simply incredible price/sales data.Dow theorists would have a field day if this holds up with next months update

 

context

[Barnsey]

6 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Ok, so unemployment isn't up, but high energy prices are making life distinctly unpleasant for everyone at the minute so whilst history isn't repeating itself, it is IMO rhyming.

Definitely rhyming MP, but bargaining power remains on the employee's side for now. Things about to get very turbulent in all job sectors methinks.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Lynn makes an interesting point. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Inching ever closer............

[Noallegiance]

7 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Inching ever closer............

It's quite frightening the level to which practicality has made way for nonsense. And I don't consider myself practical.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

Denison mines (Uranium ) up over 8% today Kazatomprom over 7 %.

France looks like launching small nuclear reactors as well.The irony is nuclear is the real threat to big oil,not wind.Wind they can buy themselves and make returns over cost of capital.If everyone goes down the nuclear route as they might il be watching for a time to sell all the oilies later in the cycle.

[Hancock]

3 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

Denison mines (Uranium ) up over 8% today Kazatomprom over 7 %.

Just checked my FCU and its up 30% today, which gets it back to where it was the other week!

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

#herecomesthebankingcrisis

the debate will flow down in the property crash thread but a heads up here if one hasn't been given already.June data has been released at RM and the liquidity has dried up.Price spiking higher on lower volume(no flats sold at all and only 7 terraces in a a psotcode with 40,000 hosueholds,7 detached sales explains the price action......

In normal times,probably 70-75% of registrations would be done by the three month mark.Even if they double June's(unlikely given lockdown ended in July) then they're 50% down on last year.

 

Simply incredible price/sales data.Dow theorists would have a field day if this holds up with next months update

 

context

The crash is coming, its on the edge of the cliff waiting to be put out of its misery.

Sadly i think its come too late for me, needed it to happen years ago to live the life i'd planned for me and the nipper.

[Hunty]

3 hours ago, Hancock said:

The crash is coming, its on the edge of the cliff waiting to be put out of its misery.

Sadly i think its come too late for me, needed it to happen years ago to live the life i'd planned for me and the nipper.

Being a good dad is more important than any abode or house value. You fella seem to being focused on just that. I read you're posts and smile. You're a rich man. You'll be fine. Good dads are not to be taken for granted. I had a shit one.

Some great posters on here. Good dads. Durhamborn, Cattleprod, SanchowPronzow, applogies fella too many beers. Harley et al. And all you other guys. Great read, keep it real. Maybe one day meet up somewhere neautral. Beer fest and a proper natter.

Family is wealth, everything else is outside noise.

Cheers gents. 

BTW. Hope Brent falls. Cashed out of Oil today. Long live windmills and candles. Xxx

[wherebee]

37 minutes ago, Hunty said:

Family is wealth, everything else is outside noise.

Cheers gents. 

BTW. Hope Brent falls. Cashed out of Oil today. Long live windmills and candles. Xxx

I cashed out my XOM at 60.5.  Now I look at 61-2 and think GAH.  But then I think that's real cash realised.

[lid]

The donut in the all night garage just rang through a four pack of Guinness as a single can. 

Four cans of the finest chilled devil's buttermilk for £1.49

A fantastic small victory ☺️

 

[Seacrest]

The UK electricity  plan that is being spun out to industry is simple enough,  we need Europe to feed us power when we have no wind to generate. It is as simple as that,   its  going to be ok because its forecast to be windy at the end October  and prices will fall ....  we will sell back to Europe

That is the strategy,  France has not delivered as expected and  Nord  is 700Mw and due to go to 1400 next year which is by far the cheapest to import

Uk carbon trades higher than Europe  so Europe  sells power to the Uk we are the most expensive country  of the former union for energy.  Im not sure how you sell that at a strategy meeting when deciding if you want a UK investment

 Every European country built out gas storage the choice here was wind.

It's an admirable strategy that is now laid bare,  what happens when industry now forward purchases all power for 22/23/24 when prices normalise so as not to get caught again and we have another month of no wind....?   well this situation  is unprecedented and the risk passes back to the supplier.. a lot of business people have just caught on how reliant this country is for energy from Europe at present and 1 country in particular

[ThoughtCriminal]

Walking the dog and whats parked up in a layby? Blue gold! Calor gas in case you cant tell from my shitty pic. 

 

Driver was having a piss so i thought id be a true dosbodder and do some research. He said he's never been so busy as everyone is ordering double and even treble as they're worried about shortages. 

 

Isnt it funny how things trickle down? 

[AyrshireBoy]

Hunterston, Dungeness and Hinkley point B all go into de commissioning in the next year, so we will need to burn even more gas on days with no wind to keep the lights on.

West Burton Power Station which burns coal was fired up earlier this week, nice timing for the COP 🙄

[Majorpain]

12 hours ago, sancho panza said:

#herecomesthebankingcrisis

the debate will flow down in the property crash thread but a heads up here if one hasn't been given already.June data has been released at RM and the liquidity has dried up.Price spiking higher on lower volume(no flats sold at all and only 7 terraces in a a psotcode with 40,000 hosueholds,7 detached sales explains the price action......

In normal times,probably 70-75% of registrations would be done by the three month mark.Even if they double June's(unlikely given lockdown ended in July) then they're 50% down on last year.

 

Simply incredible price/sales data.Dow theorists would have a field day if this holds up with next months update

 

context

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/supply-chain-crisis-destroying-britains-home-renovation-boom/

Telegraph had an interesting story on that, because people who are looking at moving cant get it renovated, due to shortage in contractors/materials, its depressing demand.  

Lockdown boom has given way to energy crisis boom for construction raw materials!  Coupled with 5% (and increasing....) inflation that the BOE is going to have to deal with, its hard to see exactly what is going to be positive for house prices for the next few years.

[TNS]

31 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/supply-chain-crisis-destroying-britains-home-renovation-boom/

Telegraph had an interesting story on that, because people who are looking at moving cant get it renovated, due to shortage in contractors/materials, its depressing demand.  

Lockdown boom has given way to energy crisis boom for construction raw materials!  Coupled with 5% (and increasing....) inflation that the BOE is going to have to deal with, its hard to see exactly what is going to be positive for house prices for the next few years.

I Was amazed recently how many loft conversions taking place in surrey given they were 50k+ for the average semi pre lockdown so must be pushing 70odd now.

[DurhamBorn]

Scottish Share cancelled its Capital Markets day today for November.A shrewd move from the CEO for me.They would likely of mentioned dividend policy etc and other matters that might be best not to highlight at the moment.The MSM are toxic and would likely of labelled a 2.5p a year div on a share that was usually over 200p fat cats etc missing the point that the county would be much better if the divi was 15p and rising and government hadnt slaughtered them with crazy regs and wokeness.

Its also obvious they are hoping to get lots of regulations changed,in their words to stop this happening again,rightly so,but that should also help them as well and they want to keep stum until those regulations are changed i expect.

 

 

 

[Noallegiance]

I knew I held on to them for a reason!

Harland & Wolff Set to Receive Marine License for Gas Project, Shares Rise - MarketWatch

Up 14% this morning! I've never been so happy about being slightly less in the red!

[Bricormortis]

Denison ended  over 19 % up.

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I knew I held on to them for a reason!

Harland & Wolff Set to Receive Marine License for Gas Project, Shares Rise - MarketWatch

Up 14% this morning! I've never been so happy about being slightly less in the red!

 

I wondered how long it would be until the eco-mentalists would be ignored.  Funny timing, now it gets passed.  I don't even see what their problem was, it's an underground cavern.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Walking the dog and whats parked up in a layby? Blue gold! Calor gas in case you cant tell from my shitty pic. 

 

Driver was having a piss so i thought id be a true dosbodder and do some research. He said he's never been so busy as everyone is ordering double and even treble as they're worried about shortages. 

 

Isnt it funny how things trickle down? 

Only a Dosbodser would, in the cause of financial research, risk popping into a layby in the dark of the morning to chat to a man with his funny hanging out!

PS: "Trickle down" you say?  I would have done worse if you had collared me!

[Bricormortis]

15 hours ago, AyrshireBoy said:

Heat pumps are shit unless your house is super insulated even then the radiator size required is a joke.

If your doing a new build and put it in a concrete slab for underfloor heating then its amazing as that's what it was designed for.

Up here the local authorities have been installing them in poorly insulated houses so they can claim the FIT payments.

Tenants that already suffer fuel poverty are left with increased bills and a marginally better heating system than the storage heaters they replaced. 

Thats why I am so pleased its a cold place like Scotland that is taking the lead with installations. This will I hope get rumbled for being incompatible with old houses in cold places sooner rather than later. I live in a cold zone  as I'm 1300 ft up on the edge of the Brecon Beacons, dont want to be forced into having a heat pump.  It is not progress.

I bloody loves my Baxi 600.

[AyrshireBoy]

52 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Thats why I am so pleased its a cold place like Scotland that is taking the lead with installations. This will I hope get rumbled for being incompatible with old houses in cold places sooner rather than later. I live in a cold zone  as I'm 1300 ft up on the edge of the Brecon Beacons, dont want to be forced into having a heat pump.  It is not progress.

I bloody loves my Baxi 600.

Suppose we always take the hit for RUK, Poll tax, vaccine passports, shitty heating 😂 

If youve not got gas then good insulation and a log burner are the way to go IMO, solar panels and battery storage if you want to get fancy. 

[Gin]

3 hours ago, Majorpain said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/supply-chain-crisis-destroying-britains-home-renovation-boom/

Telegraph had an interesting story on that, because people who are looking at moving cant get it renovated, due to shortage in contractors/materials, its depressing demand.  

Lockdown boom has given way to energy crisis boom for construction raw materials!  Coupled with 5% (and increasing....) inflation that the BOE is going to have to deal with, its hard to see exactly what is going to be positive for house prices for the next few years.

What is almost a leisure activity for some of renovating houses to flip has all but ended . I hope life is going back to basics. Do that which is needed and not what is wanted . Make a home warm if possible , move to a bigger one only if really needed , replace the 20 year old boiler .(with what is questionable now though) Maybe decorate every ten years but all the fancy shit will end .

Surely HPI showing rises has been stopped dead in its tracks the present boom based on so few house sales is the last gasp.

The remote controlled blinds around the conservatory will mostly be confined to history and Alexa can fuck off too. Well I can dream..

[reformed nice guy]

3 hours ago, AyrshireBoy said:

Hunterston, Dungeness and Hinkley point B all go into de commissioning in the next year, so we will need to burn even more gas on days with no wind to keep the lights on.

West Burton Power Station which burns coal was fired up earlier this week, nice timing for the COP 🙄

Some coal and open cycle plants were getting £3.75 per kwh yesterday!