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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko
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Put in an order to but £3k of Voda @ 110p the other week ... forgot about it until i got a email today! 

Should have done 3 ladders of £1300!

Edited by Hancock
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7 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I knew I held on to them for a reason!

Harland & Wolff Set to Receive Marine License for Gas Project, Shares Rise - MarketWatch

Up 14% this morning! I've never been so happy about being slightly less in the red!

Up 25% in a day, yet in my ISA im still down by 45%!

Good news though, can see it getting that 45% back in the coming months.

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sancho panza

Goldies on a tear.Anglo gold $15 to $19 in two weeks.

Presuming it's this unless anyone knows otherwise.Wonder what happened to the yellow stuff after 08?

https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-consumer-prices-outpace-forecast-as-inflation-dogs-economy-2642533

(Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose in September by more than forecast, resuming a faster pace of growth and underscoring the persistence of inflationary pressures in the economy.

The consumer price index increased 0.4% from August, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday. Compared with a year ago, the CPI rose 5.4%, matching the largest annual gain since 2008. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, so-called core inflation rose 0.2% from the prior month.

image.thumb.png.27925c6ae5c043968142e30c189f799c.png

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Cattle Prod
3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I did my garden wall myself earlier in the year and enjoyed doing it.A few bags of blue circle ready mixed mortar ,a pointing tool and a mortar board.It looked a bit funny at first bit after a couple of weeks looked great once it weathered a bit.I actually then got my 7m ladders out and repaired all the little small bits coming away etc on my gable end re-pointing them.It gets the wind,front and back were fine.Iv got a small bit of damp coming through above one window i think its next doors downpipe blocked as it pisses out so will be splashing up under the tiles.I can clean her gutters or silicon in some pvc so mine goes down my downpipe hers splashes all over the place on her side.

I got 7m ladders myself after you mentioned that, jealous I guess. Then I fixed a gutter elbow with duck tape for about 50p, so already paid for the ladders. Some nice photos of the neighbours gardens too 😉

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25 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Goldies on a tear.Anglo gold $15 to $19 in two weeks.

Presuming it's this unless anyone knows otherwise.Wonder what happened to the yellow stuff after 08?

https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-consumer-prices-outpace-forecast-as-inflation-dogs-economy-2642533

(Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose in September by more than forecast, resuming a faster pace of growth and underscoring the persistence of inflationary pressures in the economy.

The consumer price index increased 0.4% from August, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday. Compared with a year ago, the CPI rose 5.4%, matching the largest annual gain since 2008. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, so-called core inflation rose 0.2% from the prior month.

image.thumb.png.27925c6ae5c043968142e30c189f799c.png

SP, was that Wealthion video post, i sent (p38 of thread) any good? I sent it in response to your post from a couple weeks back, when i think you were asking about potential silvies... Wealthion were mainly discussing developers/explorers so maybe not what you were looking for. Anyway i'm very cautious, but one under discussion/analysis - a developer: Southern Silver - did look interesting to me. 

 

 

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Cattle Prod
3 hours ago, JMD said:

Bit off-topic maybe, but i've heard that cars, pizzas and dumpster-diving (though not much mentioned recently) have their their own dispensation?!

Anyway, my own Ford Focus will be 18 years old next year and i will be looking to replace it with a SUV - great practicality, plus really like the idea of higher ride height!

Would anyone have a recommendation for a 5-year old SUV (depreciation sweet spot?), petrol or diesel (though diesel fuel may be banned soon?). Am seeking reliability - because kinda hoping to make it last out until its 20th birthday at least!! Plus ideally looking for something under £10k, with good running costs (i.e. no huge BMW replacement-parts-markup con/expensive electronics)... Something like a Nissan Quashqai perhaps, though apparently their reliability is not great? 

I have a 6 year old outlander hybrid, never given me a spot of trouble, love it, comfy, great acceleration, quiet, gives the misses something to virtue signal about when my occupation comes up. Only repair was the rear washer which the fecking monkeys at Longleat ate. Cost 15k 3 yrs ago, done 30k miles. No depreciation, it'd go for about 16k now!

Edited by Cattle Prod
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Cattle Prod
3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I see we're awaiting the Oct report later today but worth noting that on Sep 13th 21 EIA states.We're jsut a functioning airline industry away from a market with a steepening deficit.

Interesting to see how wrong they were about brent at $71(I'm sure we'll pull back but jsut sayin')

Worth noting as well that the 97.4 mbpd prediction for 2021 will be heavily weighted towards year end meaning we may well start 2022 running at full tilt

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/jet_fuel_consumption/

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https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $71 per barrel (b) in August, down $4/b from July but up $26/b from August 2020. Brent prices have risen over the past year as result of steady draws on global oil inventories, which averaged 1.8 million barrels per day (b/d) during the first half of 2021 (1H21). We expect Brent prices will remain near current levels for the remainder of 2021, averaging $71/b during the fourth quarter of 2021 (4Q21).

We estimate that 98.4 million b/d of petroleum and liquid fuels was consumed globally in August, an increase of 5.7 million b/d from August 2020 but still 4.0 million b/d less than in August 2019. We forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 97.4 million b/d for all of 2021, which is a 5.0 million b/d increase from 2020, and by an additional 3.6 million b/d in 2022 to average 101.0 million b/d, almost even with 2019 levels.

Lots of good points there Sancho but I'll add a reminder that most big oilies are cash flow positive around $35 -$40 a barrel. The smart investors will have a calendar of when their hedges roll off, because they will print money at these prices. Their spending hasn't budged.

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Cattle Prod
47 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Goldies on a tear.Anglo gold $15 to $19 in two weeks.

Presuming it's this unless anyone knows otherwise.Wonder what happened to the yellow stuff after 08?

https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-consumer-prices-outpace-forecast-as-inflation-dogs-economy-2642533

(Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose in September by more than forecast, resuming a faster pace of growth and underscoring the persistence of inflationary pressures in the economy.

The consumer price index increased 0.4% from August, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday. Compared with a year ago, the CPI rose 5.4%, matching the largest annual gain since 2008. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, so-called core inflation rose 0.2% from the prior month.

image.thumb.png.27925c6ae5c043968142e30c189f799c.png

And technicals, sentiment etc. Decl. ...am irresponsibly long.

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Castlevania
59 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Goldies on a tear.Anglo gold $15 to $19 in two weeks.

Presuming it's this unless anyone knows otherwise.Wonder what happened to the yellow stuff after 08?

https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-consumer-prices-outpace-forecast-as-inflation-dogs-economy-2642533

(Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose in September by more than forecast, resuming a faster pace of growth and underscoring the persistence of inflationary pressures in the economy.

The consumer price index increased 0.4% from August, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday. Compared with a year ago, the CPI rose 5.4%, matching the largest annual gain since 2008. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, so-called core inflation rose 0.2% from the prior month.

image.thumb.png.27925c6ae5c043968142e30c189f799c.png

Even the Mighty Panther is up!

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1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Goldies on a tear.Anglo gold $15 to $19 in two weeks.

Presuming it's this unless anyone knows otherwise.Wonder what happened to the yellow stuff after 08?

https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-consumer-prices-outpace-forecast-as-inflation-dogs-economy-2642533

(Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose in September by more than forecast, resuming a faster pace of growth and underscoring the persistence of inflationary pressures in the economy.

The consumer price index increased 0.4% from August, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday. Compared with a year ago, the CPI rose 5.4%, matching the largest annual gain since 2008. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, so-called core inflation rose 0.2% from the prior month.

image.thumb.png.27925c6ae5c043968142e30c189f799c.png

Long may it continue. Still quite down from June highs but a good Sling up in the last few days. 

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8 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

As @sancho panza said, we are a recovered aviation sector or cold winter away from a panic.

Hunter has said a few times he expects airlines to recover from here, but will the share price be in any way related to air travel?

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JimmyTheBruce
10 hours ago, Gin said:

What is almost a leisure activity for some of renovating houses to flip has all but ended . I hope life is going back to basics. Do that which is needed and not what is wanted . Make a home warm if possible , move to a bigger one only if really needed , replace the 20 year old boiler .(with what is questionable now though) Maybe decorate every ten years but all the fancy shit will end .

Surely HPI showing rises has been stopped dead in its tracks the present boom based on so few house sales is the last gasp.

The remote controlled blinds around the conservatory will mostly be confined to history and Alexa can fuck off too. Well I can dream..:)

Does this mean I have to return my smart bulbs or be excommunicated!?

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Majorpain

https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/glencore-backed-u-k-gas-shipper-cng-is-exiting-wholesale-market

Quote

CNG chief executive officer Paul Stanley said “the company has been forced into an impossible position” after many of its utility customers ceased trading during the energy crisis. CNG still has about 18 utility customers on its books who will now need to seek alternative sources of gas, he said.

Glencore has been a minority shareholder since 2019 and has provided “substantial financial support to CNG through challenging market conditions,” a company spokesperson said. Glencore is “engaging with the regulator” on finding a solution.

Big wholesaler just pulled out of supplying gas to 18 UK utility companies, they will have to find the gas somewhere else now.  I did say (5th!) that there was going to come a point when the people who are hedging on the other side to the utility companies would decide the better course of action is to pull the plug rather than subsidising consumers for ridiculously overpriced gas.

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24 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/glencore-backed-u-k-gas-shipper-cng-is-exiting-wholesale-market

Big wholesaler just pulled out of supplying gas to 18 UK utility companies, they will have to find the gas somewhere else now.  I did say (5th!) that there was going to come a point when the people who are hedging on the other side to the utility companies would decide the better course of action is to pull the plug rather than subsidising consumers for ridiculously overpriced gas.

Does this massively increase the chances of electricity generation interruption? 

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Democorruptcy
On 12/10/2021 at 19:06, sancho panza said:

#herecomesthebankingcrisis

the debate will flow down in the property crash thread but a heads up here if one hasn't been given already.June data has been released at RM and the liquidity has dried up.Price spiking higher on lower volume(no flats sold at all and only 7 terraces in a a psotcode with 40,000 hosueholds,7 detached sales explains the price action......

In normal times,probably 70-75% of registrations would be done by the three month mark.Even if they double June's(unlikely given lockdown ended in July) then they're 50% down on last year.

Simply incredible price/sales data.Dow theorists would have a field day if this holds up with next months update

I can see lower volume leading to an estate agent crisis because they depend on commission from sales, not sure why it would lead to a banking crisis. Lower volumes protect the prices of their assets.

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DurhamBorn

I think the lower volume on houses at the moment is due to lack of supply so people darent sell in case they cant find anything.Around here if you were selling a terrace and looking to buy a 3 bed semi there were always plenty to choose from,a normal market.Now if a 3 bed semi comes up it sells in a few hours or days.There is massive risk in selling and not getting anything.We still have a huge problem of southern bennie claims moving here and landlords buying up houses to rent to them,working first time buyers etc funding those bennies to price them out etc.

I think housing will turn from BTL pain,not owner occupier.It needs welfare freezes on rent,social housing building on a massive scale to cut the rents under the BTL and higher rates.We will get the higher rates,so it then we might start to see some BTL sell up.

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