Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

I dont think they do. I view the system as being built on fear. Fear of being caught, fear of being fined etc. As long as you dont take the mickey I reckon you can get away with most things

...or alternatively if you want the state fully 'off your back', why not self-identity as Romany Gypsie!?

[belfastchild]

3 hours ago, Hancock said:

Couldnt you N Irish, just emigrate to the south ... fill out the appropriate forms for HMRC that you're a non resident.

Now i realise you'd the only be allowed to spend 90 days in the UK, but how would they know .. unless of course they bring back border checks!

Have you seen the tax rates down south? ;-)

If hard brexit Id just have two separate businesses, one in the north for uk/ni work, one in the south for the rest of the world.

Tax rates are high but when you see that one of my mates in an absolute mansion pays less in property tax, bin charges, water charges etc than I pay for a 3 bed bungalow in rates...

Ive an Irish passport so can travel anywhere, can work anywhere (within reason) so semi retired plan was to get out of here for 3-6 months of the year but covid put paid to that (or my resistance to having the vaccine having already had covid, does).

[JMD]

4 hours ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

If you've ever logged on to the HMRC gateway, you can see that they are linking you to your accounts with private banks.  It's still not perfect, but it's definitely happening.

Glad to hear it's not perfect - at least not yet, gives me hope that it may ultimately fail.                                                    They have been sharing our data between departments and agencies for years, started back in the 90's, but often it is for no good reason, so always felt suspicious to me.                                                                                                 Actually, now I come to think about it, why couldn't the HMRC Gateway system morph into a future CBDC? After all the infrastructure and security is already there.

[ThoughtCriminal]

29 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Do you think they will ever do a "Chernobyl" style dramatisation?

"CPI 6.2%, not great not terrible"

"western economies do not blow up!"

etc

Theres inflation everywhere comrade. 

 

"No there fucking isnt! You understand?!?!" 😂😂😂

[AWW]

7 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

£50k pa is a good family income. If people need subsidy on that sort of salary, especially if over two wages and with half tax free, then the system is broken.

No it's not. It's only £3k a month in your hand. Doesn't leave much after rent/mortgage, council tax, utility bills, food and clothing. In fact, wouldn't even cover our outgoings (London, renting).

And yes, the system is broken and has been for some time.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Perfect meme for a day like this.......... 

[ThoughtCriminal]

The man has a point. 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

33 minutes ago, AWW said:

No it's not. It's only £3k a month in your hand. Doesn't leave much after rent/mortgage, council tax, utility bills, food and clothing. In fact, wouldn't even cover our outgoings (London, renting).

And yes, the system is broken and has been for some time.

£3,400 per month if split over two wages. Plus whatever basic non means tested child benefit is. Although I realise that is now means tested if you're on six figures. It isn't poverty line. I did also caveat that this applied in most of the country. Renting a three bed home in London is going to make that difficult.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Hear hear. 

 

Without getting all "Yas are me best fucking pals and i love you all!", I appreciate this place so much just because its the only place i can go where people arent consumer zombies trapped in the matrix. 

 

Everyone i know is a normie with zero fucking clue whats happening and whats potentially coming down the road.

 

Those two scenes in Margin Call and The Big Short where they're reflecting on whats coming and how barely anyone realises, that hits home now. 

 

Sometimes its enough to know youre not mad and there are others who also get it. 

 

Anyway, thats enough of that before i start hugging you all and piss myself. 

Bit gay, mate.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Take it you keep your wife's kegs in your drawer then ... which comes in handy sometimes!

 BK material as it'll force an earlier interest rate rise -

 

 

 

July 2022 for a rate rise...after they've stolen 20% of peoples savings.

 

These criminals must be brought to justice.

[ThoughtCriminal]

129 seconds of gold from Stan Druckenmiller. 

 

Truth bomb after truth bomb. 

[AWW]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Renting a three bed home in London is going to make that difficult.

I hear this sort of thing a lot. Like living in a modest flat in a MoR part of the city where you were born and bred is somehow extravagant. London is a perfect demonstration of the broken system. The place where the funny money is created and first flows to is the place where the effects are felt most.

I'd be quite interested to know if geography plays a part in DB's mapping out of liquidity flows.

[jamtomorrow]

Aaaaand some more BK fuel (as if we needed it) ...

 

[Harley]

Good interview with David Hunter.  Very fluent and clear.  It feels we're getting close and I feel comfortable with his big picture.  He starts talking about a 5% dip.  This is probably where he's getting it wrong - too granular - he should stick to the big picture.

https://contrarianpod.com/content/podcasts/season3/david-hunter-coming-stock-market-bust/

 

[Majorpain]

6 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Aaaaand some more BK fuel (as if we needed it) ...

 

"While more than 90% of Evergrande's creditors are from China itself, there are also many international creditors from the US and Europe. International investors alone have put around $23.67 billion into 23 bonds and three large loans issued by the lurching property developer. Among the already known institutional investors are well-known addresses such as Fidelity, Blackrock, UBS, Ashmore Group, Prudential, HSBC, Pictet, Vontobel, BNP and Allianz. However, by far not all international investors are known so far, but only 148 investors with increased reporting obligations, such as fund companies, who have invested a total of 3.44 billion US dollars. There could still be some negative surprises here."

I still subscribe to the view that the CCP will bail out the local creditors and stuff the foreign ones, but it is interesting how much of it is held domestically.  Quote taken from great link below.

http://www.dmsa-agentur.de/download/20211024_DMSA_EVG_RR_en.pdf

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Thanks also to those who made me realise I could move my SIPP to HL for more choice, especially on the TSX.

HL?  IMO not good enough for international.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Hancock said:

Take it you keep your wife's kegs in your drawer then ... which comes in handy sometimes!

 BK material as it'll force an earlier interest rate rise -

 

 

 

The 1940s is when they really inflated away the debt!

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

There are going to be masses of skint people in their mid 40s because government policy is now to fill them with free money,then remove it.

Benefits/state pensions will be eroded by `real` inflation whilst appearing to keep up with CPI. They will all be indebted and so won't have any `choice` about retiring...as they will a) have mortgages to service, or b) have rent to pay to the future insurance BTL landlords...either way the governments `friends` will `make out like bandits`.

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Probably nothing again but..

 

Technically, silver currently looks more appealing to me than gold.

[Hardhat]

3 hours ago, AWW said:

No it's not. It's only £3k a month in your hand. Doesn't leave much after rent/mortgage, council tax, utility bills, food and clothing. In fact, wouldn't even cover our outgoings (London, renting).

And yes, the system is broken and has been for some time.

Not terrible, not great, no help from anyone.

Squeezed middle.

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Benefits for the rich

 

 

This is the point I am packing up and leaving. This is yet another wealth redistribution tactic and the tories are collecting everyone's money the debt and housing.

Agree, they are giving everyones taxes to indebted others from whom their `friends` can steal it from....I can understand why so many fifty somethings have given up, and decided to retire early so that they don't have to see their taxes stolen.

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Good thinking. Sometimes that might not be convenient. So if the meter reading is 8555 you can't easily transpose. In that case your finger slipped on the keypad. 8 is immediately above 5 so you could key 8855 by mistake.

"I`m sorry but your call centre operative obviously didn't understand my English accent" :-)

[Hancock]

20 minutes ago, Harley said:

Technically, silver currently looks more appealing to me than gold.

Feels like grabbing pennies from in front of a steam roller by putting more money in at this moment in time.

Silver is only up 1.2% as of 20:36.

Need to get back to chilling and waiting for the BK!

[Noallegiance]

US 10yr up 7.87% to 1.563

US 30yr up 5.34% to 1.918

...in one day.

Seems large.

[sancho panza]

On 09/11/2021 at 21:04, DurhamBorn said:

Notice the NHS today forcing jabs on people or lose your job,incredible that it is even thought about.

Yeah if they carry throuh with it,I'll be jobless in April but I remain unvaxxed and unrepentant.

Heard a nurse on Talk Radio saying how's she works A&E/ICU and has seen enough adverse effects coming in to convince her not to have it.She said she was a single Mum and if she was one of the unlucky ones,then who'd raise her kids.My sentiments exactly.

I don't judge people who have it,each to their own.But it's worrying that Javid hasn't ruled out expanding the clot shot mandate to other industries.I was thinking of doing teaching when the paramedicing comes to an end but after listening to that imbecile I've decided my next part time career will be something where I can pay the bills with minimal interraction from the gubbermint.

I've also determined that I will minimise my tax footprint in the spirit of your teachings.It's the only way to fight the parasites in Westminster.

Here it is