Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Hear hear. 

 

Without getting all "Yas are me best fucking pals and i love you all!", I appreciate this place so much just because its the only place i can go where people arent consumer zombies trapped in the matrix. 

 

Everyone i know is a normie with zero fucking clue whats happening and whats potentially coming down the road.

 

Those two scenes in Margin Call and The Big Short where they're reflecting on whats coming and how barely anyone realises, that hits home now. 

 

Sometimes its enough to know youre not mad and there are others who also get it. 

 

Anyway, thats enough of that before i start hugging you all and piss myself. 

I'm still long the market,but you've got to know where the exit is.....

from kaplan.

[Bricks & Mortar]

Don Durrett analysis of the mighty Great Panther.

Posting because they've been a talked about share round these parts.  And also, for the 'rubber band' theme.

I don't own them.  I probably won't buy them.  DYOR, natch.
 

 

[sancho panza]

I kinwo a few pages back some one was psoting DH saying airliens a good place to be as oil pops down.

BA balance sheet-as is often said-'a pensions deficit with an airline attached'

Total equity/Total long term debt=11.9%............................

Net income last year -6923

[SpectrumFX]

14 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I kinwo a few pages back some one was psoting DH saying airliens a good place to be as oil pops down.

BA balance sheet-as is often said-'a pensions deficit with an airline attached'

Total equity/Total long term debt=11.9%............................

Net income last year -6923

As I recall Benjamin Graham said in the Intelligent Investor that airlines never really make money in the long run.

Maybe that view is out of date, but he put me right off buying any.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Yeah if they carry throuh with it,I'll be jobless in April but I remain unvaxxed and unrepentant.

The compensation you eventually get will more than make up for it.

Was a lady who worked as a carer on ITV this morning that got sacked for refusing the vaxx, obviously they got her in on the presumption she was some thick minimum wage earner from Hull, but her points were very well put together and she made the govt look vile. (not that its too hard).

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

Feels like grabbing pennies from in front of a steam roller by putting more money in at this moment in time.

Silver is only up 1.2% as of 20:36.

Need to get back to chilling and waiting for the BK!

I'm looking at pulling the sails in a bit and/or having the bug out routes ready on the basis of the Hunter interview I posted.  The narrative felt about right to me.  

PS:  I don't understand the "silver is only up..." comment.  I wasn't being a historian or day trader.

[Hancock]

10 minutes ago, Harley said:

I'm looking at pulling the sails in a bit and/or having the bug out routes ready on the basis of the Hunter interview I posted.  The narrative felt about right to me.  

PS:  I don't understand the "silver is only up..." comment.  I wasn't being a historian or day trader.

It was up by 3.5% after the 6.2% inflation news was released ... causing some minor hysteria on here!

And the former comment, i bought 4k worth of shares yesterday, and in hindsight i see the down side as being far greater than the sums i could make in a so called melt up.

My SIPP went above 160k for the first time today, with just 16k being in cash ... tempted to sell up so its 50% cash in the coming months ... just don't really know what to sell! 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

It's a lot better than what I had! Who do you recco for international?

SIPPs are hard.  II worth a look (esp. forex balances, more exchanges, and market access).  DYOR.

[Harley]

28 minutes ago, Hancock said:

It was up by 3.5% after the 6.2% inflation news was released ... causing some minor hysteria on here!

And the former comment, i bought 4k worth of shares yesterday, and in hindsight i see the down side as being far greater than the sums i could make in a so called melt up.

My SIPP went above 160k for the first time today, with just 16k being in cash ... tempted to sell up so its 50% cash in the coming months ... just don't really know what to sell! 

OK.  I was referring to the commodity rather than miners.  I don't care about daily moves unless they are part of a bigger play.  I think similar in that I was underwhelmed on a risk reward basis listening to David Hunter's projected final top.  I'd rather leave that on the table or at best do a tight trade.

I expect everything to get smashed down in a BK.  My issue in prepping is more where to hide as I'll just cut across the board (or hedge).  Maybe bonds (etfs not engaged in security lending) for one last hurrah, and PMs (to avoid institutional risk) which I expect to bounce back.  Maybe a bit of crypto too given I expect its utility will be valued in a crunch.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

It's a lot better than what I had! Who do you recco for international?

My main criteria was low charges/market access, so I chose II/Sipp and HL/ISA. I'm happy with II because it holds most of my invested wealth so low charges are of greater importance for me, with market access secondary. However I do find HL limited for Scandi/Asia/Japan stocks, so I may switch to another ISA if it had similar low charges but a better stock market access. Also need to be careful as some providers state they give access to various markets, but sometimes this comes only via phone dealing, which frequently comes with an additional hefty £50 charge per buy/sell!

[Talking Monkey]

20 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

They are removing incentives to work in many areas.Its very sinister.Take Universal Credit.Now families earning up to £50k can get it (thats if they are getting £750 a month for rent in it) there is no point saving because it stops your claim if you have over £16k.

So we now have masses of people in their prime working years where there is no incentive to increase hours and/or save.The flip side of course is that in due course you end up with these same people hitting say 47,kids go over 18 and they get no benefits,but have not bought a house so have full rent,no savings,and 20 years until state pension.

Most of this is caused by central banks monetising debt for government.Instead of private savings creating capital for the economy,the central bank is now doing it and passing to government.We are now communist in all but name in many areas.

There are going to be masses of skint people in their mid 40s because government policy is now to fill them with free money,then remove it.

It is very sinister and makes me wonder are confiscatory policies coming a few years down the line in order to help keep the show on the road a little longer. Will our sipps and isas be taking a haircut at some point. 

[Sugarlips]

15 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

It is very sinister and makes me wonder are confiscatory policies coming a few years down the line in order to help keep the show on the road a little longer. Will our sipps and isas be taking a haircut at some point. 

Direct Theft is the most likely way for those of us on here to own nothing and be happy so yes, that makes sense..

[wherebee]

52 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

It is very sinister and makes me wonder are confiscatory policies coming a few years down the line in order to help keep the show on the road a little longer. Will our sipps and isas be taking a haircut at some point. 

I have assumed this since the GFC.  Diversify, both in terms of asset formats and locations.

[jamtomorrow]

12 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I have assumed this since the GFC.  Diversify, both in terms of asset formats and locations.

I'm increasingly working on the basis that if you can't deny it or hide it, it's not really "yours".

I'm still paying into the SIPP, but not as much as I could. The earliest I can go into drawdown is 2031, which is beyond the event horizon where "normal physics" applies.

The tax advantages are sorely tempting, but SIPPs do increasingly resemble a honeytrap with current direction of travel.

[Harley]

7 hours ago, JMD said:

Also need to be careful as some providers state they give access to various markets, but sometimes this comes only via phone dealing, which frequently comes with an additional hefty £50 charge per buy/sell!

Yes, and those who only offer CDIs on the LSE, not real foreign market access.  Liquidity, counter party risk, voting, trading windows, etc.  Never say never but it's not the same.

[MvR]

12 hours ago, Harley said:

Technically, silver currently looks more appealing to me than gold.

Middle to long term I tend to agree.  Very short term, I do see a fairly strong band of resistance/supply from 25.12 to 25.50 ish, which might give us some pause or even a brief pullback to 24 or even a bit lower, but I'm not betting on it. If we do break through, it's relatively clear air up to 28ish on my charts before any serious resistance.

 It feels like much of the accumulation that was going to happen, has already happened, and with the macro picture, ( just my holistic take on thoughts here, DH, and global worries about China / Ukraine etc ), I'm fully loaded and ready to ride out any pullbacks that may occur.

[Harley]

18 minutes ago, MvR said:

Middle to long term I tend to agree.  Very short term, I do see a fairly strong band of resistance/supply from 25.12 to 25.50 ish, which might give us some pause or even a brief pullback to 24 or even a bit lower, but I'm not betting on it. If we do break through, it's relatively clear air up to 28ish on my charts before any serious resistance.

 It feels like much of the accumulation that was going to happen, has already happened, and with the macro picture, ( just my holistic take on thoughts here, DH, and global worries about China / Ukraine etc ), I'm fully loaded and ready to ride out any pullbacks that may occur.

Yes.  I'm not looking for an imminent uptick, indeed we may see more basing, but the chart suggests we're on the pullback leg of a cup and handle and momentum looks like it's well placed to run up at some point.  The miners are leading as usual.  But yes, this will be a bumpy ride.  Gold looks even more murky and needs to maintain a base at a higher level.  I wouldn't rush out and buy anything at the moment, as per @Hancock steamroller post.  And yes, the PM market has the feel of one where some hands have been quietly accumulating.

PS:  We do however have a gold to silver ratio to re-align though.  Even if it's lost some of its mojo, it's still wacky atm.

PPS:  May be any up from here would be crushed by a BK in the short to intermediate term but relatively speaking that would be a good result!  So maybe a place to hide?

[Axeman123]

GBP down from 1.42 on June 1st to 1.33 today, at what point does this become a currency crisis? >6% exchange rate decline equals an equivalent increase in imported energy inflation. Certainly this puts a November base rate rise in play, no?

Certainly another way of looking at it is that 1.33 merely puts us back to December 2020 level, but we weren't expriencing an inflation scare back then. Yet another way to look at it is that we are still way above the five year low of 1.16 from March 2020.

[HousePriceMania]

11 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

GBP down from 1.42 on June 1st to 1.33 today, at what point does this become a currency crisis? >6% exchange rate decline equals an equivalent increase in imported energy inflation. Certainly this puts a November base rate rise in play, no?

Certainly another way of looking at it is that 1.33 merely puts us back to December 2020 level, but we weren't expriencing an inflation scare back then. Yet another way to look at it is that we are still way above the five year low of 1.16 from March 2020.

Have the tory MPs become worth less ?

Job done.

[DoINeedOne]

15 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

129 seconds of gold from Stan Druckenmiller. 

 

Truth bomb after truth bomb. 

Just to note the full interview has been posted in the Twitter comments here 

https://vimeo.com/548917378

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

17 hours ago, Hancock said:

 

I seem unable to copy tweets, but this bloke seems to be onto something -

 

 

Distribution cycle.Savings need to be spent to keep up the same standard of living for private sector workers and the retired.Government is hammering them to give to state workers and bennies.Incredible to think this is a Tory government with a big majority.The parties are all the same now,that is obvious.They are all the enemy of ordinary workers.

[HousePriceMania]

10 hours ago, Harley said:

OK.  I was referring to the commodity rather than miners.  I don't care about daily moves unless they are part of a bigger play.  I think similar in that I was underwhelmed on a risk reward basis listening to David Hunter's projected final top.  I'd rather leave that on the table or at best do a tight trade.

I expect everything to get smashed down in a BK.  My issue in prepping is more where to hide as I'll just cut across the board (or hedge).  Maybe bonds (etfs not engaged in security lending) for one last hurrah, and PMs (to avoid institutional risk) which I expect to bounce back.  Maybe a bit of crypto too given I expect its utility will be valued in a crunch.

Are people expecting a BK in the next 6 months yet ?

 

I was going to say that the UK stock market bust might not be so bad as the US one and to prove my point I did the chart below.

I then realized that I sort of disproved my point, the UK bust could be massive and you could be looking at a 50%+ collapse in a BKK/Depression with little prospect of a recovery if they dont QE to the max, which in itself will cause even more instability.

Thanks to this thread peoples portfolios should now be positions to weather that fall much better if it comes and to do well if they just keep pumping ad infinitum. 

If you take the 1990 £2000 level and adjust for inflation you are looking at a fair value of around £4700 for the FTSE, that is some way down from 7300.

This is nothing as crazy as the U.S. but it should give people food for thought.

I have a full allocation of the shares I intended to buy for now after yesterday.

The US inflation figures have spooked me and I still dont expect the criminal FED to change course.

I am now willing to risk/hold now even with the prospect of a 60% bust, which in reality is around about the SIPP tax I've saved + current gains, my reasoning it just to make sure if an inflationary panic kicks off my family is not left with nothing. 

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Distribution cycle.Savings need to be spent to keep up the same standard of living for private sector workers and the retired.Government is hammering them to give to state workers and bennies.Incredible to think this is a Tory government with a big majority.The parties are all the same now,that is obvious.They are all the enemy of ordinary workers.

It would follow that they have a common goal/master.

Take your pick, i'd say, corporations/banks/landed gentry.

Democracy is an illusion, 2016 has exposed them, that is exactly why I voted to leave the EU, they have no where to hide any more.

[DurhamBorn]

9 hours ago, JMD said:

My main criteria was low charges/market access, so I chose II/Sipp and HL/ISA. I'm happy with II because it holds most of my invested wealth so low charges are of greater importance for me, with market access secondary. However I do find HL limited for Scandi/Asia/Japan stocks, so I may switch to another ISA if it had similar low charges but a better stock market access. Also need to be careful as some providers state they give access to various markets, but sometimes this comes only via phone dealing, which frequently comes with an additional hefty £50 charge per buy/sell!

The big let down with HL is they dont offer access to Japan,Hong Kong,Australia etc.They might start if Abrdn do buy II because they will have a real challenger then.

Their SIPP is very very cheap though if you have a decent amount in and dont hold funds.

 

[Noallegiance]

14 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Are people expecting a BK in the next 6 months yet ?

 

I was going to say that the UK stock market bust might not be so bad as the US one and to prove my point I did the chart below.

I then realized that I sort of disproved my point, the UK bust could be massive and you could be looking at a 50%+ collapse in a BKK/Depression with little prospect of a recovery if they dont QE to the max, which in itself will cause even more instability.

Thanks to this thread peoples portfolios should now be positions to weather that fall much better if it comes and to do well if they just keep pumping ad infinitum. 

If you take the 1990 £2000 level and adjust for inflation you are looking at a fair value of around £4700 for the FTSE, that is some way down from 7300.

This is nothing as crazy as the U.S. but it should give people food for thought.

I have a full allocation of the shares I intended to buy for now after yesterday.

The US inflation figures have spooked me and I still dont expect the criminal FED to change course.

I am now willing to risk/hold now even with the prospect of a 60% bust, which in reality is around about the SIPP tax I've saved + current gains, my reasoning it just to make sure if an inflationary panic kicks off my family is not left with nothing. 

 

 

A point made by a few clever people is that, given the intervention in falling markets since 1987, if left to market forces nobody knows where the actual bottom is.