Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[jamtomorrow]

30 minutes ago, Underwhelmed said:

i dont believe you can anymore, FCA in their infinite wisdom banned it for UK retail.

That's my understanding too, the new ETFs would be covered by the FCA ban that came in January 6 this year -

https://www.fca.org.uk/news/press-releases/fca-bans-sale-crypto-derivatives-retail-consumers

No such problem if you have a trading account outside UK of course.

[Axeman123]

5 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

What the FAANGMAN hides ..

That is quite a thing to behold! It rather fits in the idea of a rolling bear market, with different sectors rolling over one after another, and all concealed by declining breadth. Any chance of seeing the inverse, ie % above all time closing high?

We might not be at the top yet, but we must be getting near!

[ThoughtCriminal]

Every day is laugh your tits off day

[Axeman123]

46 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Every day is laugh your tits off day

Surely they will just raise the price cap, and perhaps have some hardship scheme for widows and orphans badly impacted? Most of bulb's customers are probably perfectly able to absorb some increase, if not outright well off due to using a "green" energy supplier. 850B seems crazy.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Every day is laugh your tits off day

When you force own ROCE to levels where its not worth investing this is the shit show you get.Telcos were only a small way away from the same problem,but regulators are moving there just in time.

The UK government have tried to force down prices to levels that couldnt be sustained,and for me,the main reason they did it was to try to make up a bit for the council tax robbery etc going on.The civil service in this country are just a cushy group who do everything for their own interests.

The government has several things going on now that in the past would of brought governments down singular.It just shows what a printing press and a horrific opposition can do.Likely a new right leaning party will form and cut the Tories legs off.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

No such problem if you have a trading account outside UK of course.

I think it is.

[macca]

13 hours ago, spygirl said:

Talc is safe.

https://www.cancer.org/cancer/cancer-causes/talcum-powder-and-cancer.html

https://www.webmd.com/cancer/talcum-powder-cancer

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44816805

Well if it is they certainly got screwed..

[JREWING]

46 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

When you force own ROCE to levels where its not worth investing this is the shit show you get.Telcos were only a small way away from the same problem,but regulators are moving there just in time.

The UK government have tried to force down prices to levels that couldnt be sustained,and for me,the main reason they did it was to try to make up a bit for the council tax robbery etc going on.The civil service in this country are just a cushy group who do everything for their own interests.

The government has several things going on now that in the past would of brought governments down singular.It just shows what a printing press and a horrific opposition can do.Likely a new right leaning party will form and cut the Tories legs off.

We've no government DB. We are ruled under dictatorship now. One party under varying names. LabLibCon.

Democracy went decades ago along with affordable housing and the ability to earn a decent living to support a family relative to costs of energy and travel.

He was groomed, Diana Dors of government, perfect fit in the new world we are all being groomed for.

It's like is it really worth bothering to get out of bed for the shit show of a pantomime which we all have to star in.

Thank Fook for alcohol.

[Noallegiance]

 

[Axeman123]

3 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

 

Look at it this way: the post-2008 period was incredibly difficult to protect or grow wealth, as it was uncharted territory. Sure, in retrospect leverage plus residential property was the winner but I maintain that was not foreseeable at the time.

Decades of inflation dead ahead is surely an investors dream: a well understood environment with a well-tested historical playbook, that could see many of us out without needing to rotate asset classes again once we have bought in. The best inflation assets are currently at bargain prices, from a big picture perspective, and represent an opportunity to get in at the ground floor. The best analogy would be buying long-bonds when yields peaked in the late 1980s, and just putting your feet up for 30 years. 

[wherebee]

16 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

The best inflation assets are currently at bargain prices, from a big picture perspective, and represent an opportunity to get in at the ground floor. The best analogy would be buying long-bonds when yields peaked in the late 1980s, and just putting your feet up for 30 years. 

That is one view.  However, if the mass vaccinations across the west cause mass deaths in 2022, the inflationary assets will stutter.  I think oilies are still good, as their product will be in demand from the east, but things like telecom?  If even 5% of consumers die?

I am in oilies, miners, and not much else.

edit: in line with collapsing into the oilies and miners, sold off almost all of the scottish share last night.  Made 1500AUD including costs over the 2 month trade.  That'll do me, pig, that'll do.

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, wherebee said:

If even 5% of consumers die?

I don't foresee mass deaths. We just aren't hearing about enough instances for it to be that common. I could certainly imagine the shot's safety causing a scandal, and some genuine individual hardships (so comparable to historically not screening donated blood for HIV). I just don't personally see it as a macro-economic factor.

[leonardratso]

8 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I don't foresee mass deaths. We just aren't hearing about enough instances for it to be that common. I could certainly imagine the shot's safety causing a scandal, and some genuine individual hardships (so comparable to historically not screening donated blood for HIV). I just don't personally see it as a macro-economic factor.

yeah, if the percentages vaccinated are to to be believed then id assume more would be kicking the bucket from it by now, im not in great health, but i know a lot more are worse off health wise and by the law of percentages vaccinated i assume those in worse health would be mainly vaccinated by now, i just ignored the  calls for vaccination since the stuff they are all on about being curbed from doing i dont give a shit about anyway, i havent for years before all this shit came along. Work can go and fuck itself as well as far as im concerned if they hold that over me as well.

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The UK government have tried to force down prices to levels that couldnt be sustained,and for me,the main reason they did it was to try to make up a bit for the council tax robbery etc going on and get idiots to pay more for a house. The civil service in this country are just a cushy group who do everything for their own interests.

EVERYTHING the government is doing is about the housing market and making sure the bankers for all of the pie and the spare eggs.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

The best analogy would be buying long-bonds when yields peaked in the late 1980s, and just putting your feet up for 30 years. 

This is part of my plan, inflation is a nightmare but if you can time that one right you are gonna be laughing all the way through retirement.

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

When you force own ROCE to levels where its not worth investing this is the shit show you get.Telcos were only a small way away from the same problem,but regulators are moving there just in time.

The UK government have tried to force down prices to levels that couldnt be sustained,and for me,the main reason they did it was to try to make up a bit for the council tax robbery etc going on.The civil service in this country are just a cushy group who do everything for their own interests.

The government has several things going on now that in the past would of brought governments down singular.It just shows what a printing press and a horrific opposition can do.Likely a new right leaning party will form and cut the Tories legs off.

I've said for years that the government/labour/tory/liberals/bankers were leading us down a dark path that will result in a far right wing government.

I feel like I am living in German 1920s and as the rich/bankers/establishment line their own pockets time and time again more and more people are getting angry or least starting to think something doesn't seem right. 

Any anger could spill over, especially if the £/system collapses and people are left with nothing.  I for one would be offski right now if I were not British.  I think if I was Welsh/Irish/Scottish I'd be making a plan to go back there too. Humans can be right nasty c**ts.  

Was coronavirus a test run for what's to come, just so they can see what they can get away with.

It's all going a bit totalitarian mad now.  The only thing they've not stomped on is free speech but that's coming in Jan.

[Mapper]

7 hours ago, Hancock said:

But you can legislate the asset owning middle class and the rich into prosperity, its what out govt has been doing since its inception, legislation that has seemingly been on steroids for the last 25 years.

Socialism for the rich.

[Mapper]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

What the FAANGMAN hides ..

Look at Nikola down there in the penny dreadfuls! -87%

Weren't they as big as Tesla at one point, but never having produced anything?

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Mapper said:

Look at Nikola down there in the penny dreadfuls! -87%

Weren't they as big as Tesla at one point, but never having produced anything?

They're working on the "making up for it in volume" part

[Eventually Right]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

That is one view.  However, if the mass vaccinations across the west cause mass deaths in 2022, the inflationary assets will stutter.  I think oilies are still good, as their product will be in demand from the east, but things like telecom?  If even 5% of consumers die?

I am in oilies, miners, and not much else.

edit: in line with collapsing into the oilies and miners, sold off almost all of the scottish share last night.  Made 1500AUD including costs over the 2 month trade.  That'll do me, pig, that'll do.

If your base case is at least 5% of the adult population is likely to die from vaccines in the next year or so, I think it makes normal investing rationales (“inflation would do x, currency would do y, therefore invest in z”) moot.
 

In that scenario, you’d have utter chaos-fear/anger/violence on a scale not seen for a couple of centuries. Oil prices would crater (along with most things) as markets discount future perceived likely deaths, as well as potential civil wars etc. gold might get a bid, but miners would probably be at very high risky of nationalisation (even in safe N American/European jurisdictions).

I’d be limiting my investments to PM coins, a fully stacked larder, and relocating somewhere as rural as possible if I believed that-I’d want minimal exposure to financial assets.

[wherebee]

3 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I don't foresee mass deaths. We just aren't hearing about enough instances for it to be that common. I could certainly imagine the shot's safety causing a scandal, and some genuine individual hardships (so comparable to historically not screening donated blood for HIV). I just don't personally see it as a macro-economic factor.

well, jury is out, but don't forget even the early adopters of the vaccines have less than 12 months so far for any sizeable numbers of jabbed.  

On the one hand, I hope I'm wrong as if I am right as someone posted above, everything will go to shit

On the other hand, I hope I am right as if not, democracy and personal freedom is fucked (see austria, australia, germany, etc etc)

[Don Coglione]

4 hours ago, Mapper said:

Look at Nikola down there in the penny dreadfuls! -87%

Weren't they as big as Tesla at one point, but never having produced anything?

IG cunts wouldn't let me short it at $35.

Cunts.

[Barnsey]

[jamtomorrow]

DXY crossing 96.5 this morning.

I wonder to what extent the ongoing collapse of the Turkish Lira is an unexpected factor? Turkish M2 is supposedly in the region of 450bn, so would any meaningful rate of replacement by USD work as extra taper (since it seems like the effect will be "pure" liquidity absorption by Turkish economy)?

Just 1.5% per month would put it right in the middle of current monthly taper rates, so a steady flow at that rate effectively bringing the entire taper program forward by a month. And 1.5% seems on the low side given the rate of collapse and what that must be doing to sentiment within the Turkish economy.

[MrXxxx]

Some considerations on where your miners of all commods may be located?

 

BoA downgrades Hochschild Mining to 'underperform' after Peru announces plans to close two mines

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Bank of America downgraded their recommendation for shares of Hochschild Mining from 'buy' to 'underperform', marking down their target price from 280.0p to 90.0p in the process.
The latter, they said, valued the company at 0.5 times its net present value, which was at the trough end of its historical price-to-net present value valuation range.

They specifically cited the Peruvian government's announcement that it would close four mines for the move.

Two of those, Inmaculada and Pallancata, represented roughly three quarters of their net present value-to-discounted cash flow valuation for the company and approximately 70% of its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation.

Inmaculada alone was responsible for 60% of the miner´s EBITDA.

Hochschild's remaining mine, San Jose, was located in Argentina.

"While the company will likely dispute this decision we don't see equity outperforming until the dispute is resolved."

The analysts also weighed in on the possible implications for copper miners in the country.

Copper accounted for about 40% of Peru's exports and gold for 16%.

"No information suggests that the government will close other mines but we cannot rule out it will go after large(r) mines. Other companies with exposure to Peru: Southern Copper, Glencore, Anglo American (inter alia). We also note that Peru is one of the world's larger producers of copper (c. 11% of global output)."