Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Transistor Man]

16 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

4 as commodities go up and bonds and tech down, this turns into a frenzy of greed.  The hunter melt up. 

I would like to be challenged on this as a stress test of my position would be good before i lose shirt off back.

It’s just terminology, but The “melt up” that DH refers to, is a near term equity run-up I.e. S&P to 6000. 

Not the post-BK, commodities to the moon phase. 

[Axeman123]

In terms of how far the Fed can tighten before the wheels come off, here is an interesting take relating it to DXY/the dollar. If DHs dollar call plays out we may have longer to wait for the collapse in response to fed moves. This may also be what gives the fuel for the meltup before collapse.

 

[JMD]

20 hours ago, sancho panza said:

This is a warnign sign the top may be in sight soon or have passed.Clear echoes of Dec 99 for tech bubble historians when a few of the runners in that Bull run peaked.This fund has a lot of retail participation.

Plus this... The 'female Steve Jobs' (her own self styled description) - is found guilty of massive fraud. Her blood tester never worked, she knew it, her team of 'scientists' must have surely known it too. Anyway, maybe this is another example indicator of an end of tech sector cycle unwinding.                                                      https://www.businessinsider.com/theranos-founder-ceo-elizabeth-holmes-life-story-bio-2018-4?r=US&IR=T

[WICAO]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

But does this include the brokers fee?...most brokers charge a minimum .30-.35% account fee, and then you have your OCF/TER on each ETF.

Yes it includes all wrapper fees such as ISA and SIPP broker fees.  It is possible to find wrapper and product combinations that result in wrapper fees being a fixed cost and not a % of assets held.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

I've stolen this link from one of the covid threads. Not for the contents but Bloomberg's accompanying stats. Very telling and of interest here imo.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-11/repeat-booster-shots-risk-overloading-immune-system-ema-says

If you were an insider with access to vast amounts of low rate borrowing these two years have been a vast opportunity. Low rates, a pullback and a big rally. Much greater returns possible if you knew to buy Pfizer, Moderna and others.

What next? Sell, pay down some of the debt and buy oil, gas and gold? If BTC is going to be a thing long term (I don't know the answer to that and this isn't the thread for that debate) then buy that on a crash too.

[M S E Refugee]

27 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I've stolen this link from one of the covid threads. Not for the contents but Bloomberg's accompanying stats. Very telling and of interest here imo.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-11/repeat-booster-shots-risk-overloading-immune-system-ema-says

If you were an insider with access to vast amounts of low rate borrowing these two years have been a vast opportunity. Low rates, a pullback and a big rally. Much greater returns possible if you knew to buy Pfizer, Moderna and others.

What next? Sell, pay down some of the debt and buy oil, gas and gold? If BTC is going to be a thing long term (I don't know the answer to that and this isn't the thread for that debate) then buy that on a crash too.

I am in the same quandary after I sell my Watches.

I'm very tempted to pay a lump off my mortgage but I am very bullish on Thungela.

[DoINeedOne]

 

 

 

[CannonFodder]

1 minute ago, DoINeedOne said:

 

 

 

Somethings gotta give. Silver chart going gangbusters this lunch time

[sancho panza]

On 10/01/2022 at 10:00, Cattle Prod said:

To add: just by saying "windfall tax", you deter investment: "opposition party has threatened windfall tax" will literally go into the risk report that is done before every major investment, and the score for UK risks will have gone up. Taxes are the major component of this risk profile, and the big no-no is tinkering or grandfathering taxes, because companies have to make multi decade investments, and require fiscal stability to make the investment, and plan the project life. We will run an economic model for 20,30,40 years before even drilling the first well.  The UK has tinkered with taxes a lot over the last ten years, and is one of the reasons the supermajors have been divesting. Put simply, they will be happier working in a country with a high risk of coups etc, as long as the fiscal regime stays stable. And there are many 'unstable' countries out there who keep their fiscal regime stable for this exact reason. The other point is that the time to grab taxes, if you really have to, is when the countrys production is rising. Then new entrants will swallow it. UK production is in decline, and has been for 20 years. It's totally pointless, but you can count on labour to make it worse.

What a depressing read that psot was.Your logic is compelling.Whilst as a shareholder,it's good to see the companies avoid thse pitfalls but it jsut reminded me,(as if I really need reminding after 2 years of masks and lockdown) about how utterly incompetent our politicians are.Maybe we would be better off if Pfizer rant the health service or BP ran energy policy.

[janch]

3 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

It’s just terminology, but The “melt up” that DH refers to, is a near term equity run-up I.e. S&P to 6000. 

Not the post-BK, commodities to the moon phase. 

One other thing to remember about David Hunter's predictions is they apply to the US.  I don't think he thinks about the FTSE, so when he talks about a melt-up he's really talking about the S&P and the FAANGS etc.  If they then fall 80% which he also predicted then I doubt our reflation stocks will fall by anywhere near the same amount especially as there will be some people getting out of the FAANGS when they see the bust coming and going to value stocks.

Also according to Max Keiser (sorry no link) there are many "unicorn" stocks in the US which have yet to make a profit and many of these will sink without a trace ie go bust.  These are mostly NASDAQ tech type stocks.

[Joncrete Cungle]

5 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

https://amp.ft.com/content/437d322c-4fe5-4ee2-9943-e279ed209707
 

Pets are in bubble territory just as tech and the fangs, you’ll have to wait for the BK.

You can’t even light cash anymore when it becomes increasingly worthless to keep warm (maybe that was all part of the plan) 

It's currently more profitable to turn the crops we grow into petfood than it is to put it in the human food chain....

[CannonFodder]

11 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

It's currently more profitable to turn the crops we grow into petfood than it is to put it in the human food chain....

Thats reminded me that i read about 10 years ago that high fuel prices were leading to famine. Not just cost of food but agricultural land started producing crop for bio.fuels and bio diesels. Sad really.

[Joncrete Cungle]

Just now, CannonFodder said:

Thats reminded me that i read about 10 years ago that high fuel prices were leading to famine. Not just cost of food but agricultural land started producing crop for bio.fuels and bio diesels. Sad really.

Yes one of the huge neighbours started growing to produce biodiesel and another crop that I think was trucked to Drax and burned if I remember correctly.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

 

 

 

I just love the fact it nailed it to 1982 because my long term roadmap has that as the start of the dis-inflation cycle.Its incredible how the economy is so different now,yet liquidity still has the same affect.I noticed today Lidl is still trying to get warehouse workers here and now the job avert says "our sector leading pay increase from March".It wont make any difference though,they still wont keep people.Until benefits are changed or they open the immigrant flood gates from Eastern Europe why would anyone graft on nights.These companies treat workers like dirt thanks to the EU and Browns tax credits for two decades.

[Sugarlips]

Building the economy back better in the north west 

 

[Loki]

14 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

Building the economy back better in the north west 

 

 

Gulp

(I just looked again...it's a parody account, Hatt Mancock!)

[Castlevania]

5 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

Building the economy back better in the north west 

 

So they’re locking up the old and vulnerable? 

[Castlevania]

I sold ~10% of my oil stocks today. Not that I wanted to but they were too big a proportion of my portfolio.

Redeployed 3/5 of the proceeds into accumulating more B2G, Barrick and Telefonica Brasil. Remainder in cash as tobacco stocks have run away - will wait and see if they come back into my target price range or not.

[dnb24]

3 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I am in the same quandary after I sell my Watches.

I'm very tempted to pay a lump off my mortgage but I am very bullish on Thungela.

You think watches are peaking? I’m thinking they might have a bit further to go- am also starting to wonder whether to let some go or keep hold in case I need to bribe a border guard.

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, janch said:

One other thing to remember about David Hunter's predictions is they apply to the US.  I don't think he thinks about the FTSE, so when he talks about a melt-up he's really talking about the S&P and the FAANGS etc.  If they then fall 80% which he also predicted then I doubt our reflation stocks will fall by anywhere near the same amount especially as there will be some people getting out of the FAANGS when they see the bust coming and going to value stocks.

Also according to Max Keiser (sorry no link) there are many "unicorn" stocks in the US which have yet to make a profit and many of these will sink without a trace ie go bust.  These are mostly NASDAQ tech type stocks.

I wrestle with this.

These market blips have taken down my portfolio as well as the cycle leaders. DH does say that every sector will get hit in the downturn.

Someone I was listening to on Palisade Radio (I think) was also saying that, as the biggest market in the world, a US bear market tends to mean everybody else has one, too.

 

But it doesn't stop me asking questions of myself all the time!

[geordie_lurch]

14 minutes ago, Loki said:

Gulp

Don't worry @Loki @Sugarlips that's a spoof Matt Hancock account the freds have retweeted

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, dnb24 said:

You think watches are peaking? I’m thinking they might have a bit further to go- am also starting to wonder whether to let some go or keep hold in case I need to bribe a border guard.

I may buy a few Sovereigns with the proceeds as they are less conspicuous.

Maybe the Rolex madness will continue but I would imagine they will be the first thing to be sold off if we have a BK.

 

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Don't worry @Loki @Sugarlips that's a spoof Matt Hancock account the freds have retweeted

Yeah I thought I'd verify for myself, it seemed a bit much!

[Majorpain]

2 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

 

 

 

Worse than that under the bonnet, Goods inflation 10.7% and rising....

That doesn't even include food and energy!

[jamtomorrow]

18 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Worse than that under the bonnet, Goods inflation 10.7% and rising....

That doesn't even include food and energy!

Not to mention the persistent whiff of cooked books from the rent element: