Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Sidd]

21 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Id say gold is 35% undervalued,but i havent added any or miners for a long time.

Hi @DurhamBorn, but by your own basis if it is 35% undervalued are you not looking to add more miners at this stage?

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

I just love the fact it nailed it to 1982 because my long term roadmap has that as the start of the dis-inflation cycle.Its incredible how the economy is so different now,yet liquidity still has the same affect.I noticed today Lidl is still trying to get warehouse workers here and now the job avert says "our sector leading pay increase from March".It wont make any difference though,they still wont keep people.Until benefits are changed or they open the immigrant flood gates from Eastern Europe why would anyone graft on nights.These companies treat workers like dirt thanks to the EU and Browns tax credits for two decades.

I think Lidls one of the better employers TBH in the sector especially in regards to pay. A deputy store manager can get £42k a year whilst a store manager can get up to £58k.

They also don’t have the overheads of say Tesco’s so could potentially raise the hourly rate if needed above the largest supermarket retailers.

What I do expect however is that people will leave the emergency services in their droves.

Civil service is one thing - low intensity work for low intensity people who want to coast through life with a massive pro home to work life balance and get a pension at the end of it.

Emergency workers are a different kettle of fish. Yes benefits can be good (although pension isn’t really a factor anymore - state age linked) but the pay is limited and is subject to budget cuts (most have already been frozen).

Newly recruited police officers (in London) start on £19k a year which is less than a PCSO. They are now also subject to pay freezes up the yearly banded scale if they fail a performance review or are on an action plan.

In todays society and aggro that comes with it, with no pension in reachable sight, there’s literally nothing left to keep these young low banded emergency service workers when cost of living starts to skyrocket.

I know I’d rather be working in Lidl instead faced with the above.

 

 

[Bobthebuilder]

Right, sh#t has just got real for me in bobs land, this is serious.

Hornby have just released their 2022 model train product line. Last year's prices for a steam train was £169.99, this year's releases £269.99. These are not new tooling, but re-releases.

Being discretionary spending, I'm shorting Hornby.

Things have got serious, folks.

[King Penda]

2 hours ago, dnb24 said:

You think watches are peaking? I’m thinking they might have a bit further to go- am also starting to wonder whether to let some go or keep hold in case I need to bribe a border guard.

I’m watching the classic cars or some of them fords are insane prices 

[King Penda]

13 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Right, sh#t has just got real for me in bobs land, this is serious.

Hornby have just released their 2022 model train product line. Last year's prices for a steam train was £169.99, this year's releases £269.99. These are not new tooling, but re-releases.

Being discretionary spending, I'm shorting Hornby.

Things have got serious, folks.

What gauge asking for a female friend

[Tingles]

Another excellent episode from Pailsade Gold, apologies if already posted.

Talking Points From This Episode

- The consequences of poor decision-making.

- Nuclear, global energy concerns, and green energy.

- Natural gas, fertilizer, and higher food prices.

- Speculation in crypto, the risks, and concerns around Tether.

 

 

[Lightscribe]

The unwinding of a 40 year disinflation cycle, the levelling up process will be catastrophic.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Sidd said:

Hi @DurhamBorn, but by your own basis if it is 35% undervalued are you not looking to add more miners at this stage?

Because im allocated nicely where i want to be.I dont chase the most profit now i try to keep balance.Im 50 and retired,my real aim is to die with exactly the capital i have now inflation adjusted.Its different to when i was 25 etc.I am watching several miners though and would add some more on any more pullbacks.Im also still happy to buy silver and will be.

[Funn3r]

OK here's where the rubber meets the road, for me at least. About three years ago I opened an HL account with 1 pound after following this thread since ToS, then totally bottled any use of it. Finally this week got sick and tired of my cash ISA getting 0.01% and arranged to have it transferred to HL as a Stocks&Shares ISA. 

I'll add in a bit more cash so let's say 50K for now. I have been saving what I thought were notable posts from this thread exactly for a time like this and got some ideas. Basically telecoms, oil companies, PMs, and maybe a little bit miners. Not expecting or accepting Advice but any general suggestions welcome on how to get started. I'm not dead yet but no spring chicken so time horizons are shall we say "limited." 

[leonardratso]

2 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

OK here's where the rubber meets the road, for me at least. About three years ago I opened an HL account with 1 pound after following this thread since ToS, then totally bottled any use of it. Finally this week got sick and tired of my cash ISA getting 0.01% and arranged to have it transferred to HL as a Stocks&Shares ISA. 

I'll add in a bit more cash so let's say 50K for now. I have been saving what I thought were notable posts from this thread exactly for a time like this and got some ideas. Basically telecoms, oil companies, PMs, and maybe a little bit miners. Not expecting or accepting Advice but any general suggestions welcome on how to get started. I'm not dead yet but no spring chicken so time horizons are shall we say "limited." 

hookers and coke to the end ........

[Spiney Norman]

5 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Basically telecoms, oil companies, PMs, and maybe a little bit miners.

What are PM's?

Spiney.

[leonardratso]

Just now, Spiney Norman said:

What are PM's?

Spiney.

precious metals

[Funn3r]

3 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

precious metals

See I'm part of the problem now. I don't understand most of the thread acronyms and techspeak but I'm doing it myself. Sorry about that.

[Funn3r]

9 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

hookers and coke to the end ........

If there was an easy way to do that I would (might.) I have no idea how to get fixed up with a hooker, or if I would want to when she turned up. Dark markets a bit easier for the other thing but has to be more to life shurely.

[Noallegiance]

45 minutes ago, Tingles said:

Another excellent episode from Pailsade Gold, apologies if already posted.

Talking Points From This Episode

- The consequences of poor decision-making.

- Nuclear, global energy concerns, and green energy.

- Natural gas, fertilizer, and higher food prices.

- Speculation in crypto, the risks, and concerns around Tether.

 

 

I listened to this earlier today.

Really smart chap.

[leonardratso]

if your really not so sure id go with the funds, the amalgamated stuff, its much cheaper to buy and sell, even free i think in HL, i like funds for this reason, they wont go to the moon like individual stocks can, but there again they usually dont bomb as hard either. Thats just a function of their spreading it out and weightings.

I know they arent liked much but ive been just throwing a little every month into fundsmiths T class accumulator, its leaning more towards faang stuff but its maanaged to make +120% in the last 18 to 24 months. Not a huge amount is in there but i do the same with PM/Oilers/Gas/energy funds as well, just trickle it in every month. Those are a sideline though for me, i do the individual stocks as well and some shitcoin.

 

[leonardratso]

5 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

If there was an easy way to do that I would (might.) I have no idea how to get fixed up with a hooker, or if I would want to when she turned up. Dark markets a bit easier for the other thing but has to be more to life shurely.

1.make sure you dont need that 50K for living off.

2.get on and do it, some will win, some will lose, hopefully winners>losers.

3.Dont bet the farm on 1 horse, spread it around like manure on a field.

4.sit back and wait, dont be tempted to fire everything back to cash cos some stuff went down 5-10-15-30%

eg. rockhopper, i went from +10% to -15% to -20% to +8% again now, not a huge amount but i didnt sell at the bottom at maximum loss, check out @M S E Refugee and his thungella journeys, ive done the same in the same stock as well, in big, top slice watch falls back in - staying in.

Its up to you.

[CVG]

3 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

1.make sure you dont need that 50K for living off.

I'd add, clear any personal debt like credit cards and loans because they'll probably be costing more than you can make in returns

Perhaps have a look at some typical portfolios and think about what appeals/works for you.

https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/

[Lightscribe]

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/benefits-hike-should-be-doubled-to-protect-poorest-from-cost-of-living-surge-ifs-12514571

Bennies to the moon!

How best to invest… BATS and DGE?

[CannonFodder]

All good stuff above. Some other stuff.

Dont let it get to you, it can be an emotional roller coaster if you log in on day 2 and you are 10k down. Its all numbers.

Everyone has a few that go pop and a few that rocket, if your first share has an extreme result good or bad, dont mean they all do that. I need a minimum of 10 shares so i only lose 10 % if one goes pop, that  works for me

Dont go near the AIM until you know what you are doing. Stick to good quality stocks 

Dont believe a word you see on a message board or written by a share journalists. 

Things take a long time, be prepared to wait years for things to happen

There are books menitionwd here on this thread which will help

 

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/benefits-hike-should-be-doubled-to-protect-poorest-from-cost-of-living-surge-ifs-12514571

Bennies to the moon!

How best to invest… BATS and DGE?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59966752

 

 

[Loki]

  

8 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Dont go near the AIM until you know what you are doing.

  

8 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Dont go near the AIM until you know what you are doing.

  

8 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Dont go near the AIM until you know what you are doing.

 

Multiquotes for emphasis! 

BTW

Dont go near the AIM until you know what you are doing.

[Noallegiance]

53 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

OK here's where the rubber meets the road, for me at least. About three years ago I opened an HL account with 1 pound after following this thread since ToS, then totally bottled any use of it. Finally this week got sick and tired of my cash ISA getting 0.01% and arranged to have it transferred to HL as a Stocks&Shares ISA. 

I'll add in a bit more cash so let's say 50K for now. I have been saving what I thought were notable posts from this thread exactly for a time like this and got some ideas. Basically telecoms, oil companies, PMs, and maybe a little bit miners. Not expecting or accepting Advice but any general suggestions welcome on how to get started. I'm not dead yet but no spring chicken so time horizons are shall we say "limited." 

I try to keep it at a wide perspective.

If this is the thread that's got your investing juices flowing then it's a long term investment decision. Distinctly different to a traders view.

If you believe the premise then buy a set of diversified stocks that may benefit from the coming cycle. Monitor. Skim. Reallocate within the space. Keep an eye on news events. But set your portfolio because you believe the mid-long macro vision.

That's not the same as buying stuff to triple in the next 20 months. Though some could and have.

Steady div payers in the right areas for the cycle is what it was about for me, with a few hundred £ in a couple of non div fun 'to the moon or bust' e.g. Avalon Advanced Materials, just in case.

Be prepared to look at red numbers and be fine with it.

NB. I was a complete novice and terrified of it 20 months ago.

[Democorruptcy]

On 11/01/2022 at 18:42, DurhamBorn said:

Id say gold is 35% undervalued,but i havent added any or miners for a long time.

It seems ridiculous that despite real yields being so negative the PMs haven't done better. I've been itching to buy for ages but it seems reality is being suspended.

[Xtal]

22 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I try to keep it at a wide perspective.

If this is the thread that's got your investing juices flowing then it's a long term investment decision. Distinctly different to a traders view.

If you believe the premise then buy a set of diversified stocks that may benefit from the coming cycle. Monitor. Skim. Reallocate within the space. Keep an eye on news events. But set your portfolio because you believe the mid-long macro vision.

That's not the same as buying stuff to triple in the next 20 months. Though some could and have.

Steady div payers in the right areas for the cycle is what it was about for me, with a few hundred £ in a couple of non div fun 'to the moon or bust' e.g. Avalon Advanced Materials, just in case.

Be prepared to look at red numbers and be fine with it.

NB. I was a complete novice and terrified of it 20 months ago.

Yes, I've learnt a massive amount from this thread, but if there's one thing above all else it's staying calm through day to day fluctuations.