Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Colliedog1]

10 hours ago, AWW said:

I have started to buy all sorts of shit that is on the "I'll need that at some point" list. Even stuff I might not need for years. It won't be that long before others start to do the same, then it's game over for the transitory inflation theorists.

Except houses, obvs 

I have enough shoes, socks , toothbrushes etc to last my lifetime. I buy bankrupt stock to resell but keep some of it.

[Democorruptcy]

9 hours ago, WICAO said:

In addition to thinking what should my portfolio look like also don't forget to think product (individual shares, funds, ETF, etc) and wrapper (a S&S ISA, SIPP, trading account is a wrapper) costs.  For example with the HL S&S ISA and just thinking annual costs (there will also be trading costs, buy/sell spreads, possibly performance fees, etc)):

• Buy funds and you'll be paying 0.45% in wrapper fees on your total investment on your first £250,000 with it starting to decrease a little on amounts above that.  There will then also be product fees.
• Buy shares which includes ETF's and it's also 0.45% but importantly capped at £45.

So for example let's say somebody has £100,000 invested:

• in the Vanguard Global Equity Income Fund - Income.  HL will take 0.45% and Vanguard will take 0.48%.  So annual fees will be £930.
• in the Vanguard FTSE Global All Cap Index Fund.  HL will take 0.45% and Vanguard will take 0.23%.  So annual fees will be £680.
• If instead they bought Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF (VWRL).  HL will take 0.45% but capped at £45 and Vanguard will take 0.22%.  So annual fees will be £265.
• if instead they bought individual shares.  HL will take 0.45% but capped at £45 and there will be no ongoing product costs.  So annual fees will be £45.

A big difference there particularly when compounded over many years or when thinking safe withdrawal rates in retirement.

As always do your own research, not a recommendation, the value of this is directly proportional to what you paid for it, etc etc

On the 'if they bought individual shares' what about the upfront £500 stamp duty, trading fee and currency fee if it's a foreign share? Compounded of course!

Re ISA/SIPP costs across different firms, the more you are playing with the more the price at transaction matters. Could a 'cheap' firm offer a slightly lower price and trouser a little bit? I suppose it's difficult to assess across firms with real time prices. I've seen stats on it for US firms but not for UK. Have you seen any?

[CannonFodder]

I.m with 3 platforms. Iweb. Ig and hargreaves. One Sipp and two isas.

Hargreaves is the best imho, customer service is superb. Iweb the cheapest. Ig has some niche features but they wasted on me. IG also pissing me off atm regarding a specific issue so thinking of transferring tbh. Lets give em a month to come good.

I pay a bit more in fees having 3 but I feel better in terms of counter party risk. Eg someone goes pop.

Thinking its time for a different isa, interactive investors seems quite rated on here? AJ Bell is another name. Anyone else that I have missed.

Edit. Ig also very cheap forex fees

My company pension is in standard life, worst of the 4 and sl fees are ridiculous

[HousePriceMania]

53 minutes ago, Colliedog1 said:

I have enough shoes, socks , toothbrushes etc to last my lifetime. I buy bankrupt stock to resell but keep some of it.

Out of interest, where do you get the bankrupt stock from or find out about them ?

[moneyscam]

I have a question. My only income streams are my dividends and some capital gains. These will never hit the £12.5K personal tax allowance limit. None of my investments are in any wrappers as I just had them transferred over from a custody account in Switzerland. Am I right in thinking there is no particular advantage in putting these into S+S ISA in my case as long as they remain below £12.5K + dividend allowance + capital gain allowance? 

I know I could look all this up for myself but I ask here also for the benefit of others that may be reading this and in the same position. Cheers for any answers 

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

On the 'if they bought individual shares' what about the upfront £500 stamp duty, trading fee and currency fee if it's a foreign share? Compounded of course!

Re ISA/SIPP costs across different firms, the more you are playing with the more the price at transaction matters. Could a 'cheap' firm offer a slightly lower price and trouser a little bit? I suppose it's difficult to assess across firms with real time prices. I've seen stats on it for US firms but not for UK. Have you seen any?

Agree and thats why im usually a long term buy and hold.Its only the last three years iv really churned everything,but going forward only be odd buys and sells.I can swallow a one off (or two if selling) currency fees for long term holds.Repsol for instance has just today sent everyone a big fat divi and il be holding them another 8 years or more.

£200 fee on a HL half a mill Sipp is incredible value plus they dont charge for anyone drawing down amounts,thats a big thing to watch for anyone in drawdown.

[CVG]

1 hour ago, CannonFodder said:

Iweb the cheapest.

I decided to move my business to iWeb. The reasons being:

• I have simple UK based equity holdings that are all found on the platform
• Any foreign exposure can usually be obtained via sector or market ETF's or UK based investment trusts
• Every trade is just £5.
• No annual platform fees (just an initial set up fee)
• Crucially, I understand that for my partner to inherit my ISA, it has to be on the same platform, e.g. they wouldn't be able to migrate it from HL to iWeb on my death (or vice-versa). Seems an odd restriction so welcome anyone telling me that's nonsense.

Inheriting an ISA from your spouse or civil partner

If your spouse or civil partner dies you can inherit their ISA allowance.

As well as your normal ISA allowance you can add a tax-free amount up to either:

• the value they held in their ISA when they died
• the value of their ISA when it’s closed

Contact your ISA provider or the provider of your spouse or civil partner’s ISAfor details.

[Funn3r]

Heartfelt thanks for everyone who replied to my "getting started" post. I shall paste them into a local file so I can refer back without needing to search the forum. HL emailed me to say the transfer in is complete. I shall definitely take it slowly rather than the "balls-deep on day 1" approach. 

Forgot to say, my kids previously got me into trading crypto so hopefully at least slightly got experience of volatility swings and staying cool when things are turning red.

If operating the ISA works out then my next step will be to move one of my pensions into a SIPP, instead of the uninspiring current options available at work, both to (hopefully) improve its performance and so I can potentially try DB's divi tax trick which I didn't know about. 

Thanks again all.

[Hancock]

Think this is as close as Davey comes to admitting he got it wrong.

[HousePriceMania]

has someone from here got a job at zerohedge ?

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/von-greyerz-coming-market-madness-could-take-70-years-recover

"Silver is likely to go up 2-3 times as fast as gold and is therefore a fantastic speculative investment as long as it is held in physical form."

[CannonFodder]

47 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

I have a question. My only income streams are my dividends and some capital gains. These will never hit the £12.5K personal tax allowance limit. None of my investments are in any wrappers as I just had them transferred over from a custody account in Switzerland. Am I right in thinking there is no particular advantage in putting these into S+S ISA in my case as long as they remain below £12.5K + dividend allowance + capital gain allowance? 

I know I could look all this up for myself but I ask here also for the benefit of others that may be reading this and in the same position. Cheers for any answers 

 

Will you ever work again? If so, isa may be useful.

There is 12.5k personal allowance 12.3k cgt allowance and 2k dividend allowance, these are 3 different things. Personal can be used for dividends or wages so if no income then 14.5 of dividends however if over 10k of dividends then self assessment forms are needed.

Also tax laws change, an isa is a protection to an extent. They used to take 10 percent regardless and one had to ask for it back if non earning.

 

[Hancock]

To avoid over exposure to FAANGS from a S and P tracker, these may be of interest.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fear-the-faang-stocks-heres-a-better-sp-500-index-fund-for-you-2018-07-26

Anyone know of ETF for the S&P500 that have 0 FAANG/tech stocks in?

[Democorruptcy]

57 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

I have a question. My only income streams are my dividends and some capital gains. These will never hit the £12.5K personal tax allowance limit. None of my investments are in any wrappers as I just had them transferred over from a custody account in Switzerland. Am I right in thinking there is no particular advantage in putting these into S+S ISA in my case as long as they remain below £12.5K + dividend allowance + capital gain allowance? 

I know I could look all this up for myself but I ask here also for the benefit of others that may be reading this and in the same position. Cheers for any answers 

 

What's the downside of moving it to an ISA? Re not moving, it's inheritance tax free, they could freeze tax allowances or you might bust them striking gold.

 

[HousePriceMania]

12 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Heartfelt thanks for everyone who replied to my "getting started" post. I shall paste them into a local file so I can refer back without needing to search the forum. HL emailed me to say the transfer in is complete. I shall definitely take it slowly rather than the "balls-deep on day 1" approach. 

Forgot to say, my kids previously got me into trading crypto so hopefully at least slightly got experience of volatility swings and staying cool when things are turning red.

If operating the ISA works out then my next step will be to move one of my pensions into a SIPP, instead of the uninspiring current options available at work, both to (hopefully) improve its performance and so I can potentially try DB's divi tax trick which I didn't know about. 

Thanks again all.

Hi @Funn3r, When people were buying shares pre-2020 some people were asking why were they not waiting for the predicted falls, take the Scottish share as an example, many people will have wished they had waited.  I myself bought into the narrative and although it came good at the time due to laddering into the oil shares there was a fortune to be lost in March 2020.

So, now, ask yourself the same question....

Is now a good time to be buying into the market when the IRs/Inflation/End of QE events are still to play out and while most on here expect a BK ( which could mean 80% fall in share prices which wont recover in real terms for decades ).

If you missed the 2020 bottom and subsequent profits I'd be more inclined to wait 3-9 months before investing in anything especially if you are a buy and hold investor.

Saying that, with inflation picking up I am wondering if there will be a rush to assets with people buying any old shite for vast sums of money, look at 2nd hand cars and houses at the mo !!!

The central bankers who's aim is to control inflation and have a stable economy have created an instable economy and massive inflation....what comes next is anyone's guess.

If you look at the stock market post 2007 it was up up up...so with £1Tn pumped in maybe it will be 10 years of gains.  I just think sitting out most of 2022 is a wise move.

I do hold oil shares (UP) and some miners (DOWN) at present in a SIPP.  With gains, dividends and the tax free element even if I lose 60% in nominal terms then I'd not actually have lost out.  I have sold out some profits recently though as I think there are a lot of problems in the pipeline now.

[DoINeedOne]

1 hour ago, moneyscam said:

I have a question. My only income streams are my dividends and some capital gains. These will never hit the £12.5K personal tax allowance limit. None of my investments are in any wrappers as I just had them transferred over from a custody account in Switzerland. Am I right in thinking there is no particular advantage in putting these into S+S ISA in my case as long as they remain below £12.5K + dividend allowance + capital gain allowance? 

I know I could look all this up for myself but I ask here also for the benefit of others that may be reading this and in the same position. Cheers for any answers 

 

I don't really see the downside to having it within an ISA at least it would give you abit more room to move for anything outside of the ISA dividends, CGT etc...

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

14 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

What's the downside of moving it to an ISA? Re not moving, it's inheritance tax free, they could freeze tax allowances or you might bust them striking gold.

 

I mistakenly put ISA tax free there thinking of a SIPP.

[Democorruptcy]

37 minutes ago, CVG said:

I decided to move my business to iWeb. The reasons being:

• I have simple UK based equity holdings that are all found on the platform
• Any foreign exposure can usually be obtained via sector or market ETF's or UK based investment trusts
• Every trade is just £5.
• No annual platform fees (just an initial set up fee)
• Crucially, I understand that for my partner to inherit my ISA, it has to be on the same platform, e.g. they wouldn't be able to migrate it from HL to iWeb on my death (or vice-versa). Seems an odd restriction so welcome anyone telling me that's nonsense.

Inheriting an ISA from your spouse or civil partner

If your spouse or civil partner dies you can inherit their ISA allowance.

As well as your normal ISA allowance you can add a tax-free amount up to either:

• the value they held in their ISA when they died
• the value of their ISA when it’s closed

Contact your ISA provider or the provider of your spouse or civil partner’s ISAfor details.

That doesn't prove your edit either way. It says 'their ISA' not 'their ISA's'. I've never read it had to be on the same platform so had just been looking and found the same page.

I thought another reason why an ISA inheritance might not count as APS was if you no longer lived with your spouse or civil partner, unless it's changed from 2018

Quote

 

It is important to note that in order to make use of the APS for ISAs then the deceased’s spouse or civil partner must have been living with them. If the couple are separated, whether by court order, deed of separation or where the marriage or partnership has completely broken down then the APS does not apply.

https://moneyfacts.co.uk/isa/guides/the-rules-on-inheriting-isas/

 

 

[MrXxxx]

18 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Right, sh#t has just got real for me in bobs land, this is serious.

Hornby have just released their 2022 model train product line. Last year's prices for a steam train was £169.99, this year's releases £269.99. These are not new tooling, but re-releases.

Being discretionary spending, I'm shorting Hornby.

Things have got serious, folks.

Better to go Emerging Markets in my opinion!

[Funn3r]

25 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Hi @Funn3r, When people were buying shares pre-2020 some people were asking why were they not waiting for the predicted falls, take the Scottish share as an example, many people will have wished they had waited.  I myself bought into the narrative and although it came good at the time due to laddering into the oil shares there was a fortune to be lost in March 2020.

So, now, ask yourself the same question....

Is now a good time to be buying into the market when the IRs/Inflation/End of QE events are still to play out and while most on here expect a BK ( which could mean 80% fall in share prices which wont recover in real terms for decades ).

If you missed the 2020 bottom and subsequent profits I'd be more inclined to wait 3-9 months before investing in anything especially if you are a buy and hold investor.

Saying that, with inflation picking up I am wondering if there will be a rush to assets with people buying any old shite for vast sums of money, look at 2nd hand cars and houses at the mo !!!

The central bankers who's aim is to control inflation and have a stable economy have created an instable economy and massive inflation....what comes next is anyone's guess.

If you look at the stock market post 2007 it was up up up...so with £1Tn pumped in maybe it will be 10 years of gains.  I just think sitting out most of 2022 is a wise move.

I do hold oil shares (UP) and some miners (DOWN) at present in a SIPP.  With gains, dividends and the tax free element even if I lose 60% in nominal terms then I'd not actually have lost out.  I have sold out some profits recently though as I think there are a lot of problems in the pipeline now.

Nobody likes losing money but I am more paranoid than most about a BK. It's ironic that someone like me is forced into the stock market at a time like this; it's the last thing I would naturally want to do. But just can't ignore inflation any longer. Very true what DB has said many times something like "the market hurts as many participants as possible."

I understand what you are telling me though and I am not planning on piling in with fingers crossed. Going to be fairly cautious with things I hope will be somewhat BK-resistant and no expectations of sudden huge profits; just want to keep my head above water.

[MrXxxx]

16 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

The unwinding of a 40 year disinflation cycle, the levelling up process will be catastrophic.

I am assuming that this is UK based, if so its interesting that it coincides with the reduction in Unionization/Union power.

[MrXxxx]

16 hours ago, Funn3r said:

OK here's where the rubber meets the road, for me at least. About three years ago I opened an HL account with 1 pound after following this thread since ToS, then totally bottled any use of it. Finally this week got sick and tired of my cash ISA getting 0.01% and arranged to have it transferred to HL as a Stocks&Shares ISA. 

I'll add in a bit more cash so let's say 50K for now. I have been saving what I thought were notable posts from this thread exactly for a time like this and got some ideas. Basically telecoms, oil companies, PMs, and maybe a little bit miners. Not expecting or accepting Advice but any general suggestions welcome on how to get started. I'm not dead yet but no spring chicken so time horizons are shall we say "limited." 

Blue chip divi payers...bought at Mar 2020 prices :-)

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Colliedog1 said:

I have enough shoes, socks , toothbrushes etc to last my lifetime. I buy bankrupt stock to resell but keep some of it.

We had a good clear out about two years ago, packed up all the stuff, but never got round to going to the charity shops.  We're back to raiding the stuff now and wondering what we were thinking! 

[MrXxxx]

16 hours ago, leonardratso said:

its leaning more towards faang stuff but its maanaged to make +120% in the last 18 to 24 months

I can imagine it has, but will it be making such a good return in the next 18 to 24 months?...I think not, but given our 'Clown World' my logic could be completely wrong! :-)

[moneyscam]

32 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Will you ever work again? If so, isa may be useful.

There is 12.5k personal allowance 12.3k cgt allowance and 2k dividend allowance, these are 3 different things. Personal can be used for dividends or wages so if no income then 14.5 of dividends however if over 10k of dividends then self assessment forms are needed.

Also tax laws change, an isa is a protection to an extent. They used to take 10 percent regardless and one had to ask for it back if non earning.

 

Thank you and the others that have answered. I never intend to do paid work again, I am very fortunate in that I have that option. I do intend to do some volunteer work for a charity / church / food bank / animal shelter to fill my time a bit and socialise a bit more.

I had to sort a lot out after moving back here from Switzerland with pensions and investments over there so neglected tidying things up here. You make a good point about potential tax changes so I think I will start moving my current portfolio into S+S ISA's. As for SIPP's, the maximum I can contribute is £2880 grossed up to £3600 so that's another area I need to sort out, it would be silly to forego the guaranteed 20% return as in my case (I turn in 55 in 2025) I could withdraw all of that tax free over 2 years.

I've also only got 14 years of NI contributions and recently found out because I worked in Switzerland for 9 years I can purchase additional years for £165 each rather than £800 so that is another no brainer thing I need to sort out soon.

[Joncrete Cungle]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Out of interest, where do you get the bankrupt stock from or find out about them ?

Have a poke around search engines there are lots of places auctioning stuff off all the time. I have bought stuff from BPI auctions in the past, you had to  be able to  collect it from their warehouse Mon -Fri.