Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[DoINeedOne]

4 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

 

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-to-exit-rosneft-shareholding.html
 

More info here

[geordie_lurch]

20 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

 

As I was speculating and I'd already set up my stop losses as I can see BP losing 20% tomorrow but who knows as gold and silver have dropped in all this madness!

As Jim Pickard says in a later tweet...

"who will the buyer be and at what price"

I think BP will survive this obviously but if I can buy my current shares back for 20% less in a few days then I will try.

[Bobthebuilder]

11 minutes ago, nirvana said:

christ I've had THE most horrendous indigestion! AND I had to stop mid bowl of banana and honey to have a crap!

This is most unlike me.......wait til I have a word with Stigette of the dump next week!

Mind you I did get totally off my head, get the munchies, then remembered they'd given me a manky chicken and emmental sarnie too so scoffed that down.....maybe a bit too quick 

Well, I can say one thing, I am not having a chicken Kiev for tea again anytime soon.

Wife popped into Gregg's yesterday just before closing, everything reduced to clear, she bought half the shop, makes a change from more shoes.

Chicken and bacon baguette for tea tonight.

[nirvana]

that's a nice table top mate, I had to take my photo on the floor, cos my kitchen top is totally covered so I should probs stop talking tuddle and go with cleaning more......and that tomato looks totally gorgeous, so I'm off before I start eating my monitor, enjoy!

[Shamone]

8 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

chicken Kiev

I spent many a night shift making them. 

[moneyscam]

16 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

As I was speculating and I'd already set up my stop losses as I can see BP losing 20% tomorrow but who knows as gold and silver have dropped in all this madness!

As Jim Pickard says in a later tweet...

"who will the buyer be and at what price"ho will the buyer be and at what price"

I think BP will survive this obviously but if I can buy my current shares back for 20% less in a few days then I will try.

Arse, range of loss estimated £3-6 bn so you could be right. Got £18K in them so can stomach the loss, still don't like it.

[Bobthebuilder]

10 minutes ago, Shamone said:

I spent many a night shift making them. 

I hope you weren't wearing that glove.

[nirvana]

good coming on here BP on my radar again lol

found a note from Valerie too whilst tidying lol, I think I need to go on the 'camper van' lookout again for the summer......no decent totty around here......

[Shamone]

5 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I hope you weren't wearing that glove.

Blue gloves. One shift one of the nutters there kept putting his false teeth down the line. They were bread and battered and nearly went through the fryer.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, CannonFodder said:

I.m struggling to understand how much of this is gov outrage and how much is posturing to voters on all sides 

It's the great reset, phase covid+1!

[Harley]

45 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

 

After a recent call from a government minister.  I wonder what the deal was.  BP is a strange company, like the John Lewis of the O&G sector!

[Option5]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

After a recent call from a government minister.  I wonder what the deal was.  BP is a strange company, like the John Lewis of the O&G sector!

I've worked in the oil and gas industry since 1980. It has long been said that BP made money despite all their efforts to fail. They are the only company I have never directly worked for by choice. I always considered them badly managed and unsafe to work for.

[DoINeedOne]

Again two tweets which can mean two different things

need to find source and what they actually plan to do 

[planit]

• bp will exit its 19.75% shareholding in Rosneft.
• Both bp-nominated directors to resign from Rosneft board with immediate effect.
• bp will no longer report reserves, production or profit for Rosneft.
• Changes in accounting treatment of Rosneft shareholding expected to lead to a material non-cash charge.
• bp’s financial frame and distribution guidance remains unchanged.

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-to-exit-rosneft-shareholding.html

 

This reads like BP's solution is to pretend it doesn't own 20% of Rosneft. Sounds like this is to placate the politicians and wokesters. The wording is all carefully constructed in order to manage the fallout from the public focus on this stake. Perhaps we should be looking at who was heavily shorting BP last week.

Notice BP is not saying it will perform a fire-sale which would not be in the interests of shareholders. The accounting changes are due to it being held as an "asset for sale" instead of an integral part of their business. They still have the opportunity to change their mind and reinstate it if it all blows over (but I doubt they will due to their green changes).

 

Quote

bp chief executive officer Bernard Looney added: “Like so many, I have been deeply shocked and saddened by the situation unfolding in Ukraine and my heart goes out to everyone affected. It has caused us to fundamentally rethink bp’s position with Rosneft. I am convinced that the decisions we have taken as a board are not only the right thing to do, but are also in the long-term interests of bp. Our immediate priority is caring for our great people in the region and we will do our utmost to support them. We are also looking at how bp can support the wider humanitarian effort.”

 

I for one am more worried about Looney's green agenda than I was before, whilst BP kept that stake it showed they weren't going ESG insane.

I also think this is going to get slaughtered in early trading tomorrow as the way it's worded is very negative sounding. They had already pissed off all the O&G investors so this will clearly not help and on top of that they are still a long way from attracting any ESG investors.

I would be happy if they did an extra $2bn of buybacks tomorrow with all the cash they are making.

 

Even though I have too many BP shares (through options) I will be buying if I can get them less than 320.

If we are trying to pinpoint the bottom tomorrow I will pick 308p. 

The covered calls I sold on Friday look like a good move 

[planit]

 

Does anyone else believe Russia is making out like bandits by using all the oil profits to buy Russian companies at pennies on the pound?

All this virtue signalling is very expensive to the companies and countries carrying it out.

[DurhamBorn]

If BPs stake is worthless it should knock max 9% off the share price.Anything over is an over-reaction.Of course the question is who will buy the stake if they are to get anything for it?

On normal days BP buys back around 10% of shares traded with its buybacks and given their lower priced hedges should be rolling off now and being re-hedged around 100 bucks they could up that in the short term by a lot to counter the flow of sell orders

Id rather BP didnt lose the stake,but in the scheme of whats going on probably best to move now before the Ruskies do it for them.

Obvious Putin has made a huge error invading Ukraine,he has united the west,even Sweden sending arms now,very likely talks will kick in soon,the question then is should BP of waited it out,but i think they have probably made the right choice,but selling the stake at best with the ruble where its going will destroy between 5% and 9% of value.

[JimmyTheBruce]

23 minutes ago, planit said:

 

Does anyone else believe Russia is making out like bandits by using all the oil profits to buy Russian companies at pennies on the pound?

Must admit was thinking this myself last week.

[kibuc]

2 hours ago, PrincessDrac said:

LINK

Expected this.

Could be a good day or week for the PM miner's. 

MOSCOW, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Russia's central bank on Sunday said it would resume buying gold on the domestic market from Feb. 28, as it undertakes measures to try and ensure financial stability during Western sanctions against Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.

Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his military command to put nuclear-armed forces on high alert as Ukrainian fighters defending the city of Kharkiv said they had repelled an attack by invading Russian troops.

I'm not sure why they'd advertise their position like this, unless the goal is to create a price spike for their planned dump. I think it's only logical they'll have to sell some of their reserves - whether it's $ or gold - to prop up the Ruble.

[nirvana]

14 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Could we see sub £3 tomorrow? 

let's hope so, I'm back in then 

[geordie_lurch]

The ruble has been seen at the following per dollar as well as possibly over 200 according to the following and closed Friday at 83  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/traders-brace-chaotic-fx-market-open-ruble-set-collapse

 

[Hancock]

4 hours ago, kibuc said:

I'm prepared to buy anything that drops significantly on Monday, whether it's Poly, BP or Tesla (ok, maybe not that one). Turbulent times create overreactions which generate some of the best buying opportunities. 

Is this one an over reaction?

In total i bought 15 grands worth of Russian shares on Thurs/Fri, and i cant but help think its one of my worst financial decisions.

Maybe its all just been overblown at the weekend and things will calm down, but i don't see my getting that money back for a while, maybe never.

[BadAlchemy]

43 minutes ago, kibuc said:

I'm not sure why they'd advertise their position like this, unless the goal is to create a price spike for their planned dump. I think it's only logical they'll have to sell some of their reserves - whether it's $ or gold - to prop up the Ruble.

They could drive the price higher by selling oil for gold on very favourable terms? Increase the buying power of their gold reserves and cause a headache for the west who want the gold price suppressed.

Interesting thread...

 

[DurhamBorn]

44 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

BP's latest annual results, published two weeks ago, revealed Rosneft accounted for $2.7bn (£2bn) of its profits, about a fifth of its total.

@DurhamBornwould it not maybe knock 20% off the sp ? Could we see sub £3 tomorrow? 

I suspect around 12% to 14% then pull 4% of it back over a few weeks of buybacks,however it could be more short term if the market gets hit hard across the board,not sure what US futures are saying they should be open.The value had been cut in half last week anyway.Not sure there will be many buyers,but it could be they sell once things settle down,or the Ruskies take it anyway.

Doesnt bother me at all the falls,but it does show newbies on here why you have max limits on each investment.I sold 23% of my BP holding overall because it grew too big.That 23% had doubled with divs.I didnt want too,same as selling a few BAT,but you need to be clinical,rules remove emotion.It could be i shave something else and add more BP later.

These sort of things happen during a nasty cycle like this,but they all add up to more inflation.I expect CBs will add liquidity while still increasing rates,if so my roadmap was showing that and it made me scratch my head a lot.

The main worry is Putin has made a huge mistake and a caged Honey Badger is nasty.Best thing now would be talks and some kind of bodged deal before we end up with a hot war sucking everyone in.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

If BPs stake is worthless it should knock max 9% off the share price.Anything over is an over-reaction.Of course the question is who will buy the stake if they are to get anything for it?

On normal days BP buys back around 10% of shares traded with its buybacks and given their lower priced hedges should be rolling off now and being re-hedged around 100 bucks they could up that in the short term by a lot to counter the flow of sell orders

Id rather BP didnt lose the stake,but in the scheme of whats going on probably best to move now before the Ruskies do it for them.

Obvious Putin has made a huge error invading Ukraine,he has united the west,even Sweden sending arms now,very likely talks will kick in soon,the question then is should BP of waited it out,but i think they have probably made the right choice,but selling the stake at best with the ruble where its going will destroy between 5% and 9% of value.

BP down 3.35% last week despite oil being up on the week. Have you included the decline in your figures?

[ThoughtCriminal]

I have to say that I'd be amazed if putin hasn't factored all of this in before he dropped the hammer.

 

This looks like a Russia, China and India led move to break dollar hegemony.

 

This isn't a blip, we're witnessing the crossing of the Rubicon.