Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[afly]

2 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

BP down 3.35% last week despite oil being up on the week. Have you included the decline in your figures?

That seems to be how bp works.

Has Russian holdings? Takes a pounding.

Dumps Russians holdings? Gets taken to pound town 

[JREWING]

11 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Is this one an over reaction?

In total i bought 15 grands worth of Russian shares on Thurs/Fri, and i cant but help think its one of my worst financial decisions.

Maybe its all just been overblown at the weekend and things will calm down, but i don't see my getting that money back for a while, maybe never.

So Hancock.

What is the price that BP has to hit for you're balls to grow and you go balls deep into BP.

Or you had a re think. This week could be your moment or you having second thoughts.

[Calcutta]

11 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Anyone going to sell BP first thing Monday as they seem to be the most exposed to Russia?

I'll have 10k worth @303p please.

 

[JREWING]

11 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

I'll have 10k worth @303p please.

 

Tight git. 

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, JREWING said:

So Hancock.

What is the price that BP has to hit for you're balls to grow and you go balls deep into BP.

Or you had a re think. This week could be your moment or you having second thoughts.

That strategy was knocked on the head the other week. But most definitely knocked on the head as I got carried away last Thursday afternoon /Friday afternoon as the Russia shares seemed like a bargain ... looks like it was a case of buying the dip instead of buying the crash ... though even buying the crash might end up with the company being confiscated.

Really is a whole new paradigm.

My fuck up is i want to buy a house pretty soon, and i may not get the money back from the above for a while if ever ... i'm finishing a 10 day trip tomorrow, and it maybe a case that all the money earned was lost in a mad few hours of button tapping last week. Maybe write the money off as another one of lifes lessons!

Buy a house, do a bit of work and avoid the stress of all this shit .... would prefer to be poor and stress free than trying to grab a few extra grand here and there.

[kibuc]

23 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Is this one an over reaction?

In total i bought 15 grands worth of Russian shares on Thurs/Fri, and i cant but help think its one of my worst financial decisions.

Maybe its all just been overblown at the weekend and things will calm down, but i don't see my getting that money back for a while, maybe never.

I have no exposure at the moment, bought small position in Poly on Thu and sold on Fri for a quick 30%, precisely because I didn't want to hold anyhitng so volatile over the weekend. So, for me whatever comes on Monday (if anything) will be just a first ladder, from which I'll have plenty of scope to average down.

While I'm open to buying anything that looks oversold tomorrow, I might apply different investing horizon to, say BP and Gazprom. BP is the one that got away in 2020 and I'd be prepared to hold it very long term if I managed to buy it on offer. Poly or Gazprom would be more of a short-term play.

Also, I'm currently 100% in junior miners so all my money are by definition never to be seen again 

[planit]

8 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

I'll have 10k worth @303p please.

 

There is a high chance shares are going to dive tomorrow first thing.

The sentiment and chat over the weekend has been extremely negative compared to Friday even though not too much has changed (apart from the west trying to engineer a Russian bank run).

 

There have been a few comments about cashing out on Monday first thing but..

Part time retails traders will have been catching up over the weekend and they all might be putting in orders to reduce exposure for Monday morning. I feel there won't be an opportunity to sell out as these companies will gap down with  everyone trying to get out the door at the same time.

As DB said, try and be non-emotional in your decisions, it is clear that selling BP @-20% is stupid if only 10% of their profits come from Rosneft.

Good luck for tomorrow everyone, I hope the talks on the Belarusian border tomorrow go well and Russian troops stop fighting.

[DurhamBorn]

Tut tut,all these il buy at prices,,if you hold no BP how about buying a ladder if they are 10%+ down and set ladders at 7%,14%,21% below that then go and do something else.Markets whipsaw retail investors all the time,an investors job isnt to time prices,but pick the areas the cycle gives a tailwind to and have a mechanical buying policy.Three of four ladders is the best way iv found in 35 years of doing this to avoid emotion ruining returns.Kaplans tiny ladders are even better,but we dont get free trades.

Think like a contrarian,BP will be buying back shares much cheaper now.

[Alifelessbinary]

Until there are some meaningful steps towards negotiation in the Ukraine it’s going to be extremely volatile market. I’ve been cursing my cash holdings lately due to the inflation drag but I’ll be looking to use them in a few areas. At times like this I’ve learnt to write a list of potential stocks and ladders. 

I’ve been tempted by a few of the Russian stocks like POLY, however I’ve been burnt a few times and so now my investment aim is to simply beat inflation. This means I avoid high risk situation where a total stock loss is possible. Saying that I’m sure some brave souls will make a fortune over the next few weeks, but it’s not for me. 

It’s frustrating that private investors will likely be locked out of the best trading tomorrow morning while the institutions swamp the trading bandwidth. 

If we stay disciplined we can thrive in this environment and beat the big boys. I wish everyone the best of luck and we’ll steer through this one together. I’ll be picking BP up tomorrow if they drop more that 12%.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Well well well..........

[Loki]

7 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Well well well..........

 

I don't follow, the I in SWIFT means international, the EU couldn't do shit directly to Moscow or China anyway 

[Hancock]

10 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Well well well..........

My hope is this weekend people have been watching too much rolling news, and reading twitter and coming up with the conclusion that its going to be the end of the world for Russia.

Obviously its very bad, but hopefully not companies becoming worthless bad.

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

 

I don't follow, the I in SWIFT means international, the EU couldn't do shit directly to Moscow or China anyway 

yeah but it's based in Belgium so the EU fukkers could probs do something with the puters....or think they can lol

Off to dream of buying BP sub £3......good luck y'all

[Loki]

Just now, nirvana said:

yeah but it's based in Belgium so the EU fukkers could probs do something with the puters....or think they can lol

Off to dream of buying BP sub £3......good luck y'all

Oh right, maybe then.  I expect they're stupid enough to try and make Putin say (In Russian) GAS TURN OFF NOW

[dnb24]

47 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The main worry is Putin has made a huge mistake and a caged Honey Badger is nasty

I think Putins probably made plans over the past 8 years ready for this. Biden gave him the go ahead on the 25th Jan, hoping to strengthen NATO through a unilateral agreement (based on fear) through the Baltic etc. I think Putin takes the Donbas, there will be an agreement with Ukraine- Ukraine becomes a neutral country (as per Switzerland) with Ukraine doing very well from acting as a buffer between East and West. Biden gets a strengthened NATO (for whatever that’s worth). May be wrong on this, but nothing I’m seeing seems hot headed reaction from either side- the chess moves are being well telegraphed- which to me indicates an agreement will be made.

[nirvana]

this sounds bad hmmmm

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, dnb24 said:

I think Putins probably made plans over the past 8 years ready for this. Biden gave him the go ahead on the 25th Jan, hoping to strengthen NATO through a unilateral agreement (based on fear) through the Baltic etc. I think Putin takes the Donbas, there will be an agreement with Ukraine- Ukraine becomes a neutral country (as per Switzerland) with Ukraine doing very well from acting as a buffer between East and West. Biden gets a strengthened NATO (for whatever that’s worth). May be wrong on this, but nothing I’m seeing seems hot headed reaction from either side- the chess moves are being well telegraphed- which to me indicates an agreement will be made.

I think thats the likely outcome,and a good outcome for everyone.Putin saves face by getting those "Russian" areas back ,likely his plan.West looks good for "saving" Ukraine,government can go fiscal mad in case "those ruskies" try it again.Everything about this cycle is about inflation,and being whipsawed out of inflation assets will likely do massive damage.

[HousePriceMania]

Been skiing in Italy last week, have i missed much? 

[feed]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

Been skiing in Italy last week, have i missed much? 

Not really, the broccoli from lidl is good value.  

[Majorpain]

12 minutes ago, nirvana said:

this sounds bad hmmmm

 

There are two ways it looks likely to go wrong:

1.  Banks can make payments out of Swift but its not quick and its not easy, if EU cant keep up payments at best Russia will want money up front for energy, at worst physical transfers of "stuff" that will bypass swift completely.

2.  Russia has minimal debt and big surplus, that $200bn is currently greasing Eurodollar markets in Europe with ample liquidity.  Pull the plug on that and European banks suddenly find there is a gaping hole of a $200bn liquidity crisis.

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, feed said:

Not really, the broccoli from lidl is good value.  

🤣🤣👍👍👍

 

just catching up, fuck, it's all gone mental!!! 

I have some poly shares and would have bough more at 600 if I'd been here last week. 

Gazprom was on my wish list too. 

And... Was almost tempted by evraz. 

 

Probably a good week to have missed

I have a load of bp so need to decide what to do there before 8am.

My shorts are doing well though. Can't win them all though. 

Im going to stay up or get up early to see what Asia does. 

 

 

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Is this one an over reaction?

In total i bought 15 grands worth of Russian shares on Thurs/Fri, and i cant but help think its one of my worst financial decisions.

Maybe its all just been overblown at the weekend and things will calm down, but i don't see my getting that money back for a while, maybe never.

Whats your timescale?

5 years is a long time in geopolitics

[HousePriceMania]

From what I'm looking at now, i think it is safe to say the markets are rigged. 

 

Read a good quote on TOS just then along the lines of... 

 

If the rumour tonight is of nuclear war, buy the rumour, if its wrong you'll make a fortune, if its right you won't have to worry about it. 

 

We might not be facing nuclear war but we are facing a financial calamity with the bankers refusing to address inflation.

 

I'll be buying tomorrow, the only question is, will i try and sell first. 

[geordie_lurch]

This is another good article on Zerohedge likening the Russia swift stuff to the Lehman weekend. This week's going to be memorable I think... https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pozsar-warns-another-lehman-weekend-russia-sanctions-may-trigger-central-bank-liquidity

Lehman weekend 2.0

Which brings us to the punchline of Pozsar's warning: "there is no difference between Lehman unable to pay back money funds because its tri-party clearing agent is unwilling to unwind o/n repo trades, and banks unable to receive and make payments because they are out of SWIFT." He then adds that the Herstatt risk – or settlement risk – owes its name to a mishap at a single bank, but "the risk in the current  scenario involves an entire country’s banking system."

And here comes Pozsar with another Lehman analogy:

Banks’ inability to make payments due to their exclusion from SWIFT is the same as Lehman’s inability to make payments due to its clearing bank’s unwillingness to send payments on its behalf. History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes….

[Harley]

2 hours ago, planit said:

• bp will exit its 19.75% shareholding in Rosneft.
• Both bp-nominated directors to resign from Rosneft board with immediate effect.
• bp will no longer report reserves, production or profit for Rosneft.
• Changes in accounting treatment of Rosneft shareholding expected to lead to a material non-cash charge.
• bp’s financial frame and distribution guidance remains unchanged.

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-to-exit-rosneft-shareholding.html

 

This reads like BP's solution is to pretend it doesn't own 20% of Rosneft. Sounds like this is to placate the politicians and wokesters. The wording is all carefully constructed in order to manage the fallout from the public focus on this stake. Perhaps we should be looking at who was heavily shorting BP last week.

Notice BP is not saying it will perform a fire-sale which would not be in the interests of shareholders. The accounting changes are due to it being held as an "asset for sale" instead of an integral part of their business. They still have the opportunity to change their mind and reinstate it if it all blows over (but I doubt they will due to their green changes).

 

 

I for one am more worried about Looney's green agenda than I was before, whilst BP kept that stake it showed they weren't going ESG insane.

I also think this is going to get slaughtered in early trading tomorrow as the way it's worded is very negative sounding. They had already pissed off all the O&G investors so this will clearly not help and on top of that they are still a long way from attracting any ESG investors.

I would be happy if they did an extra $2bn of buybacks tomorrow with all the cash they are making.

 

Even though I have too many BP shares (through options) I will be buying if I can get them less than 320.

If we are trying to pinpoint the bottom tomorrow I will pick 308p. 

The covered calls I sold on Friday look like a good move 

As much as I like buying at a discount, this company is a dud to me.  Congrats to anyone who managed to feck them over for a profit before they fecked you.