Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[lid]

20 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Nothing is ever a sure thing,but iv been hearing things like the above since i was 12.Enjoy it now,they coming for you etc.Those people have nothing now mostly,flogging on on nightshifts in manual work,look like shit,health gone.Life is winners and losers,nothing else,always been that way.Iv lived in the poorest town in the country at its poorest time,and yet i loved it as much as i love life now.Id swap every penny to go back to then because id get time back.The great reset is real i think,but it will fail,just like every other time in history.Akhenaten reset Egypt,Alexanda ,Ceasar and countless others yet all their countries and empires returned to what they were before.Entropy is all powerful and tightened grips make systems unstable.

I think we all hope and pray that this great reset shit is just that, a flash in the pan.

If you've worked all your life and squirreled dough away and these cunts decide that your dough is fair game for a bail in, but their dough isn't. Fuck that for a game of soldiers 

 

 

[wherebee]

18 minutes ago, lid said:

I think we all hope and pray that this great reset shit is just that, a flash in the pan.

If you've worked all your life and squirreled dough away and these cunts decide that your dough is fair game for a bail in, but their dough isn't. Fuck that for a game of soldiers 

 

 

I am pretty sure the great reset is going to turn out to be a miserable failure.  There will be a lot of pain in places like Canada, NZ, and yes maybe Australia as they try to bring it in, but China and Russia have already won the economic war after the past six months.  

The organisers failed to take into account human nature (as the communists always do).  So fuckem.  I agree having some insurance is worthwhile, even if it's just several boxes of whiskey you could trade with, but overall I think they lost their chance by not accomplishing the reset during 2020-21 when the COVID panic was maximal.

As that trucker said the other day - nobody ever moves from the red pill camp to the blue pill camp.  Ever.  The movement is only ever one way.

[lid]

2 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I am pretty sure the great reset is going to turn out to be a miserable failure.  There will be a lot of pain in places like Canada, NZ, and yes maybe Australia as they try to bring it in, but China and Russia have already won the economic war after the past six months.  

The organisers failed to take into account human nature (as the communists always do).  So fuckem.  I agree having some insurance is worthwhile, even if it's just several boxes of whiskey you could trade with, but overall I think they lost their chance by not accomplishing the reset during 2020-21 when the COVID panic was maximal.

As that trucker said the other day - nobody ever moves from the red pill camp to the blue pill camp.  Ever.  The movement is only ever one way.

Well yeah, but where's the pushback gonna come from? I mean it's all good and well having an armed populace being there to stop tyranny but it looks like it didn't actually do what it said on the tin.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[marceau]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The great reset is real i think,but it will fail,just like every other time in history.Akhenaten reset Egypt,Alexanda ,Ceasar and countless others yet all their countries and empires returned to what they were before.Entropy is all powerful and tightened grips make systems unstable.

These people swam with a fortunate tide for so long that they managed to convince themselves that they were causing the tide. 

Now they'll swim against it and get nowhere. More realistic people will take over.... eventually. It's the transition that's the problem.

[Lightscribe]

4 hours ago, wherebee said:

I am pretty sure the great reset is going to turn out to be a miserable failure.  There will be a lot of pain in places like Canada, NZ, and yes maybe Australia as they try to bring it in, but China and Russia have already won the economic war after the past six months.  

The organisers failed to take into account human nature (as the communists always do).  So fuckem.  I agree having some insurance is worthwhile, even if it's just several boxes of whiskey you could trade with, but overall I think they lost their chance by not accomplishing the reset during 2020-21 when the COVID panic was maximal.

As that trucker said the other day - nobody ever moves from the red pill camp to the blue pill camp.  Ever.  The movement is only ever one way.

Food and supply chain shortages, famines, war, energy crisis’, recessions, long term vaccine effects, spiralling inflation and possible civil war in the US should do it.

I don’t think it’s been a failure at all, more like a resounding success so far.

Its a karma thing after all, law of the universe and all that. In order for people to accept a ‘new normal’ they have to actually have to want it over their present state of things. Ordo ab chao. Can’t make an omelette without cracking a few eggs.

[Royston]

6 hours ago, Sidd said:

Could almost argue the government are subsidising the gig economy.

Full time working average to middle earners are.

[marceau]

6 hours ago, lid said:

To me it's looking like the West is circling the drain.

The 'west' as most people know it is only 60-70 years old. It's largely failed, lost touch with reality and is being flushed. That's just how it works, the old is replaced by the new.

 

[Chewing Grass]

Just checked out Aprils building materials inflation and it is 25.2% YOY averaged out.

There are other tables in the report but they lag too much to be informative.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1079453/22-cs6_-_Construction_Building_Materials_-_Commentary_May_2022.pdf

 

[JohnnyB]

17 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Just checked out Aprils building materials inflation and it is 25.2% YOY averaged out.

There are other tables in the report but they lag too much to be informative.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1079453/22-cs6_-_Construction_Building_Materials_-_Commentary_May_2022.pdf

 

Thanks, I can't see anything anywhere that would see inflation start to drop despite what the media and central banks are saying. Core materials costs haven't fully filtered through yet, energy prices still rising net and geopolitical problems aren't going away. Same with food.

I really want to see a 0.5% rate rise, that would shake a lot of people up and the btls shit themselves. BoE want to go on a nice smooth 0.25 drip path and pretend they are in control but they aren't. Maybe the threat of 10% inflation in September when they do the bennies calcs will be the trigger - workers will riot if they see the non-worker class get that uplift when they are struggling.

[Juniper]

I read this piece on hyperinflation at the weekend 

https://rudy.substack.com/p/a-very-ordinary-life?s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=direct

It’s not inconceivable that the Davos crowd aspire to this:

“Finally, there was a revaluation and each person could turn in so much of the previous money, if they hadn’t spent it for nothing already, and get a small amount of new currency. It was very little, 200 marks or so. And the rest was all lost. I’m not sure how they did manage to stabilize the currency, but once the government decided to take action they did it.

Of course all the little people who had small savings were wiped out. But the big factories and banking houses and multi-millionaires didn’t seem to be affected at all. They went right on piling up their millions. Those big holdings were protected somehow from loss. But the mass of the people were completely broke.”

I still think and hope we’re not headed for hyperinflation but each time we do payouts, such as the current bungs for the ‘cost of living crisis’, the more I fear we won’t be far off. 

[Sasquatch]

40 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Just checked out Aprils building materials inflation and it is 25.2% YOY averaged out.

There are other tables in the report but they lag too much to be informative.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1079453/22-cs6_-_Construction_Building_Materials_-_Commentary_May_2022.pdf

 

 

Not quite seeing these increases from my perspective, probably more like 10 to 15%. However, we are seeing a spread of up to 50% on tenders which is quite something. ie winning builder says he'll do the job for £1m. Builder no 5 says £1.5M. 

[CannonFodder]

 

Always best to get the view of the man in the street. - needs sound

 

 

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

48 minutes ago, JohnnyB said:

Thanks, I can't see anything anywhere that would see inflation start to drop despite what the media and central banks are saying. Core materials costs haven't fully filtered through yet, energy prices still rising net and geopolitical problems aren't going away. Same with food.

I really want to see a 0.5% rate rise, that would shake a lot of people up and the btls shit themselves. BoE want to go on a nice smooth 0.25 drip path and pretend they are in control but they aren't. Maybe the threat of 10% inflation in September when they do the bennies calcs will be the trigger - workers will riot if they see the non-worker class get that uplift when they are struggling.

Not sure the workers will riot. Down tools is more likely. Strike in unionised industries.

Someone should explain to me why wages rising with high inflation is a bad thing but benefits must always do so?

In fact benefits will rise by more than inflation as they will get an extra utilities bung on top of inflation.

[DurhamBorn]

42 minutes ago, JohnnyB said:

Thanks, I can't see anything anywhere that would see inflation start to drop despite what the media and central banks are saying. Core materials costs haven't fully filtered through yet, energy prices still rising net and geopolitical problems aren't going away. Same with food.

I really want to see a 0.5% rate rise, that would shake a lot of people up and the btls shit themselves. BoE want to go on a nice smooth 0.25 drip path and pretend they are in control but they aren't. Maybe the threat of 10% inflation in September when they do the bennies calcs will be the trigger - workers will riot if they see the non-worker class get that uplift when they are struggling.

I think that might be what changes things,the 10% bennie and retired government workers uplifts.It comes alongside allowance freezes in tax and will be paid for with more inflation on the workers paying for it.

Funny enough,some of the worst hit will be government and council workers still working.They will see retired getting 10% while they get 4%ish.The line between work and not is already in the wrong place.If i was public sector within a few years of retiring id go now because youl get the much bigger increase in pension than wages.Its economics of the madhouse.If someone aged 12 was learning macro and came up with it they would get a slap from their mentor.

Those 10% increases come directly from people not getting 10%.Dishi has already undone all the decent work the Cameron government did on welfare.Not enough,but they made some progress.This government seem unable to argue any case at all and simply live in fear of the left wing press etc.

Luckily the BOE is out of the picture for printing.Their models have been a disaster.The government is fighting the economy trying to fix itself.Its telling them those 50% consuming and not producing need to consume much less and then produce much more.Government is trying to let them consume even more of what someone else produces and for even more to hang up their boots.It really is macro suicide.

[Pip321]

16 minutes ago, Juniper said:

I read this piece on hyperinflation at the weekend 

https://rudy.substack.com/p/a-very-ordinary-life?s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=direct

It’s not inconceivable that the Davos crowd aspire to this:

“Finally, there was a revaluation and each person could turn in so much of the previous money, if they hadn’t spent it for nothing already, and get a small amount of new currency. It was very little, 200 marks or so. And the rest was all lost. I’m not sure how they did manage to stabilize the currency, but once the government decided to take action they did it.

Of course all the little people who had small savings were wiped out. But the big factories and banking houses and multi-millionaires didn’t seem to be affected at all. They went right on piling up their millions. Those big holdings were protected somehow from loss. But the mass of the people were completely broke.”

I still think and hope we’re not headed for hyperinflation but each time we do payouts, such as the current bungs for the ‘cost of living crisis’, the more I fear we won’t be far off. 

Hyper inflation is an interesting study. Those who survived it and did ‘okay’ seemed to own ‘stuff’ rather than money…..and that’s where shares can come in.

Ignoring share price almost completely, if you own a share of a company (albeit a tiny share) then it’s tangible, a real asset. Assuming the company survives hyper inflation (and that is not a certainty) then your share still exists and so does dividends which hopefully are rising because of inflation. Effectively see it as owning a factory rather than holding cash during the inflation period. The cash loses always….the factory ‘may’ lose or infact may even prosper afterwards. That brings me to this whole thread which seems spot on  

Gold is king, the ultimate hedge but it’s price has been and can be manipulated over a few decades….so that’s an issue. It will win but will we be there to see it? Worth a hedge but not 100% 

Commodities and stuff we need do well so I will buy today what I know I need tomorrow  

So with inflation today it feels like hyper inflation but on slow burn and the boiling frog it’s easy to sit and watch.

So shares mention on this thread may fall but they are offering a stake in the new world that comes out the other side.

Only other consideration is an uncomfortable truth about property. Like gold it’s tangible and short term it could half from todays daft prices and indeed never recover in real terms to todays levels but verses cash it offers a rental return which assuming people survive and earn more can nudge up as inflation continues. So like shares I see potential significant falls in prices….but a long term hedge. With shares however it’s easier to be selective and pick shares that hopefully do fairly well even during the downturn itself. 

Interesting times….I am buying a wheel barrow for my pound notes.😆 

[geordie_lurch]

Vote of no confidence gone in against Boris via BBC here

Guess we will see if this is just to make sure he can't face another one within the next 12 months or TPTB want a new face for Build Back Better

 

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Not sure the workers will riot. Down tools is more likely. Strike in unionised industries.

Someone should explain to me why wages rising with high inflation is a bad thing but benefits must always do so?

In fact benefits will rise by more than inflation as they will get an extra utilities bung on top of inflation.

Just doubling the pain on the workers,mostly low paid workers who try to get on in life.Its sickening.Just another massive policy error from a useless government.

[HousePriceMania]

7 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Vote of no confidence gone in against Boris via BBC here

Guess we will see if this is just to make sure he can't face another one within the next 12 months or TPTB want a new face for Build Back Better

 

Is that why the stock market is flying ?

 

[feed]

The great reset is done.  Assuming it was ever real.

Xi, Putin, Modi are all nationalists.  3 Billion people directly and the SE Asia regions under Chinese influence, it's almost half the worlds population.  

Our leaders are myopic, but at some point the western elites will figure out that they now have more to fear from the populations of other countries than they do from their own populations.  Presumably after the Ukraine capitulates.   

The crisis of confidence, in getting it wrong again and that reducing national identity, in the face of the balkanisation of the world, was a really stupid idea.  They will want a buffer of native mass population to protect them.  Our politicians are ideological opportunists and will turn to nationalism.   

it'll be a return to the 1950's. Both standard of living and cultural paranoia, suspicion and fear of the "other".  

 

[HousePriceMania]

12 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Yup would most likely be real a Superocean Heritage would about £4k new in 2017. Was considering one on Tesco points exchanged x3 to Goldsmiths back then but decided to go the extra mile for a Rolex BLNR instead (sadly sold now)

The watch of a Sportsman

 

[Pip321]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think that might be what changes things,the 10% bennie and retired government workers uplifts.It comes alongside allowance freezes in tax and will be paid for with more inflation on the workers paying for it.

Funny enough,some of the worst hit will be government and council workers still working.They will see retired getting 10% while they get 4%ish.The line between work and not is already in the wrong place.If i was public sector within a few years of retiring id go now because youl get the much bigger increase in pension than wages.Its economics of the madhouse.If someone aged 12 was learning macro and came up with it they would get a slap from their mentor.

Those 10% increases come directly from people not getting 10%.Dishi has already undone all the decent work the Cameron government did on welfare.Not enough,but they made some progress.This government seem unable to argue any case at all and simply live in fear of the left wing press etc.

Luckily the BOE is out of the picture for printing.Their models have been a disaster.The government is fighting the economy trying to fix itself.Its telling them those 50% consuming and not producing need to consume much less and then produce much more.Government is trying to let them consume even more of what someone else produces and for even more to hang up their boots.It really is macro suicide.

I worked for a big finance group. They froze our pensions in 2012 ish. Ie I did get a 1/60th more for every extra year worked but it was based in my 2012 pay. Our scheme offered a 50 year retirement but with penalties….which no one was prepared to take. 

So I left a 50, knowing my pension was then index linked and worked out it would increase (relatively) faster than my salary, and a lot faster than my frozen pension.  I worked out by 65 the pension in payment  would be have risen with RPI and be almost the same as if I had waited to retire at 65. Balmy. 

My boss was a senior director (decent chap…an actuary) and was shocked when I showed him, his scheme was very different of course😆😆. I left on very good terms for lots of positive reasons but this was contributing factor to my planning to leave in the first instance. 

As an aside I transferred my pension to a SIPP because of the massive offer the pension funds made and also my circumstances and other assets made it a sensible idea (not advocating for others)…that’s another story😉

[M S E Refugee]

9 minutes ago, feed said:

The great reset is done.  Assuming it was ever real.

Xi, Putin, Modi are all nationalists.  3 Billion people directly and the SE Asia regions under Chinese influence, it's almost half the worlds population.  

Our leaders are myopic, but at some point the western elites will figure out that they now have more to fear from the populations of other countries than they do from their own populations.  Presumably after the Ukraine capitulates.   

The crisis of confidence, in getting it wrong again and that reducing national identity, in the face of the balkanisation of the world, was a really stupid idea.  They will want a buffer of native mass population to protect them.  Our politicians are ideological opportunists and will turn to nationalism.   

it'll be a return to the 1950's. Both standard of living and cultural paranoia, suspicion and fear of the "other".  

 

I do get the feeling that possibly the Bilderbergers have been played by the Russians and Chinese, hence the recent meetings of the WEF and Bilderbergers in quick succession.

 

[feed]

4 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I do get the feeling that possibly the Bilderbergers have been played by the Russians and Chinese, hence the meetings of the WEF and Bilderbergers in quick succession.

 

Sanctioning the Russian reserves.  I don't know if they were played or not.  If it was a trap or not.
But, it was always going to change everything.  Arrogance, hubris, stupidity to not expect a reaction.  

[Chewing Grass]

Carmageddon, the SMMT data is out for May.

Luxury car sales decimated, only Manufacturers doing OK are Dacia, MG, Polestar and Porsche.

Tesla doesn't play ball with the SMMT.

JLR doing appallingly.

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

[kibuc]

Does anyone remember what rules used to apply in regard to arriving in UK from EU with gold/silver (particularly Britannias or other legal tender) on you before Brexit? Was there a customs declaration, any limits etc? Or was it legally possible to bring it in without notifying the authorities?