Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

YEP...Bang on!

 

I was doing my engineering apprenticeship at this time, during the day-release at college, someone every other week was getting made redundant, BUT there was NO talk of dole, it was get on ya bike and get knocking on companies doors or going into another trade.

 

TV Highlight of the week was: Boys From The Black Stuff with Yozzer Hughes "Gis a job, I can do that!"

 

The pathetic BBC should repeat this drama series, but what a hope as it may upset barrel-necks Sharon & Tim, who ffs will need special trauma bennies because of watching it!

 

P.S - BRING back Thatcher, she'd sort this country out!

 

Great series and tough times. Probably need some more of this medicine to get ride of all this woke rubbish. They were happy days looking back. Skint, home brew, proper bands, proper mates and no face ache. In hind sight, Thatcher was a c**t, but I’d swap her for the current dross.

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

They should work out and publish how much some of these whinging bennie whales have been given tax and work free over the past 10, 15 or 20 years. Some of the figures will be mind blowing!

Indeed but how many realise it’s a trap which could actually get a lot worse yet .

[working woman]

We will know a journalist has been reading this entertaining thread  if we see a best selling book in the style of a steamy Jilly Cooper novel, with a title along the lines of  "Stockmarkets and  Tumbles" or "Macros and Massages". 

Come on journalist, fess up, you are only here for the hilarious tales of romantic adventures............

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, working woman said:

We will know a journalist has been reading this entertaining thread  if we see a best selling book in the style of a steamy Jilly Cooper novel, with a title along the lines of  "Stockmarkets and  Tumbles" or "Macros and Massages". 

Come on journalist, fess up, you are only here for the hilarious tales of romantic adventures............

Leads,Lags,Slags and Fags.

 

[mcdongle]

12 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

According to this 15% of Venezuelan output is joint ventures with Russia.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-11/russian-oil-rigs-in-venezuela-complicate-u-s-talks-with-maduro

[WICAO]

The Reserve Bank of Australia have just raised interest rates 0.5% to 0.85% while staring at official inflation figures of 5.1% and expecting that to go higher.  Behind the curve anyone...

I'm doing my best, as always, to reducing my personal inflation to deflation levels.  Year to date my personal inflation is at -2.9% so doing ok so far.  Food is the big one for me though at +20.4% so plenty of work to address that coming up.

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, WICAO said:

The Reserve Bank of Australia have just raised interest rates 0.5% to 0.85% while staring at official inflation figures of 5.1% and expecting that to go higher.  Behind the curve anyone...

I'm doing my best, as always, to reducing my personal inflation to deflation levels.  Year to date my personal inflation is at -2.9% so doing ok so far.  Food is the big one for me though at +20.4% so plenty of work to address that coming up.

The papers in Australia are calling it 'aggressive'.  fucking shills.

[JohnnyB]

Any thoughts as to why the EU still holding out with no IR increases whilst the Anglosphere seems to be panicking somewhat?

[wherebee]

5 minutes ago, JohnnyB said:

Any thoughts as to why the EU still holding out with no IR increases whilst the Anglosphere seems to be panicking somewhat?

it's a tuesday.  they are still recovering from a weekend fucking their mistresses on taxpayer funded hotel breaks in Geneva.

[WICAO]

39 minutes ago, wherebee said:

The papers in Australia are calling it 'aggressive'.  fucking shills.

Aggressive, don't make me laugh.  They sat on their arses and just watched house prices rise by over 30% in a year and did nothing.  Hopefully, for the sake of the young the piper now gets paid.

[Plan-b]

26 minutes ago, wherebee said:

it's a tuesday.  they are still recovering from a weekend fucking their mistresses on taxpayer funded hotel breaks in Geneva.

Well, not all of them..  

[snaga]

1 hour ago, JohnnyB said:

Any thoughts as to why the EU still holding out with no IR increases whilst the Anglosphere seems to be panicking somewhat?

because Germany needs a weak Euro else their exports collapse? just speculation.

EU policy always seems to lag a year or so behind the US, whether it's QE stimulus or rate changes.

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, JohnnyB said:

Any thoughts as to why the EU still holding out with no IR increases whilst the Anglosphere seems to be panicking somewhat?

Anglosphere tends to have decisive systems of government, relatively speaking. Evil and incompetent politicians, of course, but when they finally get their heads out of their arses they can at least act quickly.

Rest of the old world (and generally the associated former colonies) tends to have total gridlock by default, with fragile coalitions and dozens of main political parties the norm. The only way forward for the EU will either be radical change to central control, or fragmentation. 

[Axeman123]

28 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Well, not all of them.. 

I was going to say adult/human/female, probably pick one or maybe two...

[Onsamui]

8 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Anglosphere tends to have decisive systems of government, relatively speaking. Evil and incompetent politicians, of course, but when they finally get their heads out of their arses they can at least act quickly.

Rest of the old world (and generally the associated former colonies) tends to have total gridlock by default, with fragile coalitions and dozens of main political parties the norm. The only way forward for the EU will either be radical change to central control, or fragmentation. 

European Debt Crisis Explained | Armstrong Economics  short video

European Debt Crisis Unfolding on Target | Armstrong Economics short read

 

[geordie_lurch]

14 minutes ago, Onsamui said:

European Debt Crisis Explained | Armstrong Economics  short video

Incredible that video clip was first aired 12 years ago and obviously the sums involved have increased MASSIVELY since then

[geordie_lurch]

A good article on Zerohedge here specifically talking about "Ticking Timebomb": 500,000 UK Small Businesses Could Imminently Go Bust via a Radio 4 interview with the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) chairman which I don't remember anyone else mentioning yet. Emphasis added by me...

----

As a stagflationary storm looms over the UK economy, the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) chairman warned of a tsunami of small business closings without new support packages from the government. 

FSB chairman Martin McTague, recently told BBC Radio 4's Today, "there is still a massive problem with small businesses. They are facing something like twice the rate of inflation for their production prices, and it's a ticking timebomb. They have got literally weeks left before they run out of cash and that will mean hundreds of thousands of businesses, and lots of people losing their jobs."

McTague referred to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) data, showing that 2 million (or about 40%) of the UK's small businesses had less than three months of cash in reserves to support operations. He noted that 10% (or 200,000) were in grave danger, and 300,000 only had a few weeks of cash left. 

"It is a very real possibility because … they don't have the cash reserves. They don't have any way they can tackle this problem," McTague said. 

FSB chairman's warning comes as April UK inflation hit 9%, the highest level since 1982. Inflation has been widely sparked not just by loose monetary policy conditions during the virus pandemic but now soaring energy costs as Europe tries to ween itself off Russian fossil fuels and monetary tightening by the central bank. 

McTague gave one example of a hotel owner in Scarborough, a resort town on England's North Sea coast, which had profits wiped out because soaring power bills were five times higher than normal levels. 

"They weren't able to trade any longer without essentially trading at a loss and therefore damaging the future of their business and everybody that worked for them," he said. 

Soaring inflation and faltering growth is a perfect recipe for a stagflationary macro backdrop that is already crushing small businesses and households. ONS data showed the economy contracted by .1% in March, and the economy appears to be sliding into what could be the beginning of a recession. 

----

[DurhamBorn]

Another private equity bid this time for Biffa. @Harley predicted years ago on here that "they" would take all cash producing assets private so the little man would be left with nothing to invest in,but government bonds and hopeless themes.

 

[Bricormortis]

Could someone recap for me on what was being said about the amount of economically inactive / benefits claimants up thread please ?

Was it 20% of the working age population is not working...or 20% of the population of working age is in reciept of a benefit. ?

[Axeman123]

14 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

As a stagflationary storm looms over the UK economy, the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) chairman warned of a tsunami of small business closings without new support packages from the government. 

Those businesses need to close, sadly. If BJ is serious about lowering taxes and conservative principles, refusing a bailout for these unfortunate businesses would be a good starting point.

[Pip321]

9 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

A good article on Zerohedge here specifically talking about "Ticking Timebomb": 500,000 UK Small Businesses Could Imminently Go Bust via a Radio 4 interview with the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) chairman which I don't remember anyone else mentioning yet. Emphasis added by me...

----

As a stagflationary storm looms over the UK economy, the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) chairman warned of a tsunami of small business closings without new support packages from the government. 

FSB chairman Martin McTague, recently told BBC Radio 4's Today, "there is still a massive problem with small businesses. They are facing something like twice the rate of inflation for their production prices, and it's a ticking timebomb. They have got literally weeks left before they run out of cash and that will mean hundreds of thousands of businesses, and lots of people losing their jobs."

McTague referred to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) data, showing that 2 million (or about 40%) of the UK's small businesses had less than three months of cash in reserves to support operations. He noted that 10% (or 200,000) were in grave danger, and 300,000 only had a few weeks of cash left. 

"It is a very real possibility because … they don't have the cash reserves. They don't have any way they can tackle this problem," McTague said. 

FSB chairman's warning comes as April UK inflation hit 9%, the highest level since 1982. Inflation has been widely sparked not just by loose monetary policy conditions during the virus pandemic but now soaring energy costs as Europe tries to ween itself off Russian fossil fuels and monetary tightening by the central bank. 

McTague gave one example of a hotel owner in Scarborough, a resort town on England's North Sea coast, which had profits wiped out because soaring power bills were five times higher than normal levels. 

"They weren't able to trade any longer without essentially trading at a loss and therefore damaging the future of their business and everybody that worked for them," he said. 

Soaring inflation and faltering growth is a perfect recipe for a stagflationary macro backdrop that is already crushing small businesses and households. ONS data showed the economy contracted by .1% in March, and the economy appears to be sliding into what could be the beginning of a recession. 

----

Interesting.

So just the following will ask for assistance as inflation hits:

Small business owners (above), Large business owners, working families, Pensioners, single mums, landlords, tenants, farmers, disabled, private sector, public sector, local councils, car manufacturers, food suppliers, clothes production companies, NHS, dentists, building trade, banks, non working singles, mental health consultants, chemical suppliers, medical suppliers, commodity producers, gyms, taxi firms, bus companies, holiday and flight companies, pubs, hotels……yadda, yadda, yadda.

Everyone ready with the begging bowls. Printy printy will save us all. 

It’s a longer queue than at the breast inspection job vacancy role advertised in a Mens Health magazine.😉

[DurhamBorn]

36 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

A good article on Zerohedge here specifically talking about "Ticking Timebomb": 500,000 UK Small Businesses Could Imminently Go Bust via a Radio 4 interview with the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) chairman which I don't remember anyone else mentioning yet. Emphasis added by me...

----

As a stagflationary storm looms over the UK economy, the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) chairman warned of a tsunami of small business closings without new support packages from the government. 

FSB chairman Martin McTague, recently told BBC Radio 4's Today, "there is still a massive problem with small businesses. They are facing something like twice the rate of inflation for their production prices, and it's a ticking timebomb. They have got literally weeks left before they run out of cash and that will mean hundreds of thousands of businesses, and lots of people losing their jobs."

McTague referred to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) data, showing that 2 million (or about 40%) of the UK's small businesses had less than three months of cash in reserves to support operations. He noted that 10% (or 200,000) were in grave danger, and 300,000 only had a few weeks of cash left. 

"It is a very real possibility because … they don't have the cash reserves. They don't have any way they can tackle this problem," McTague said. 

FSB chairman's warning comes as April UK inflation hit 9%, the highest level since 1982. Inflation has been widely sparked not just by loose monetary policy conditions during the virus pandemic but now soaring energy costs as Europe tries to ween itself off Russian fossil fuels and monetary tightening by the central bank. 

McTague gave one example of a hotel owner in Scarborough, a resort town on England's North Sea coast, which had profits wiped out because soaring power bills were five times higher than normal levels. 

"They weren't able to trade any longer without essentially trading at a loss and therefore damaging the future of their business and everybody that worked for them," he said. 

Soaring inflation and faltering growth is a perfect recipe for a stagflationary macro backdrop that is already crushing small businesses and households. ONS data showed the economy contracted by .1% in March, and the economy appears to be sliding into what could be the beginning of a recession. 

----

Bennies again as well.Every cafe etc over there on the coast has job adverts in the windows and all the shops.However they simply cant compete with the bennies.Cafes cant pay £500 a week for staff.The polos think high bennies keeps demand up,and to be fair they are right,but we are well past the point where they become very destructive.Who is going to buy all the probates in Scabby? .Wonder if that bonkers Cat Cafe is still going.

[DurhamBorn]

34 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Could someone recap for me on what was being said about the amount of economically inactive / benefits claimants up thread please ?

Was it 20% of the working age population is not working...or 20% of the population of working age is in reciept of a benefit. ?

I think 87% of my home town rely on bennies and government wages.Its over 50% on a benefit in this county.20% of working age arent working,but in many areas its 50%+,a few will be wives/husbands,but its mostly bennie claims.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, snaga said:

because Germany needs a weak Euro else their exports collapse? just speculation.

EU policy always seems to lag a year or so behind the US, whether it's QE stimulus or rate changes.

Rock and a hard place. Increase interest rates and the Italian budget deficit spirals. Leave as is and inflation takes off like a meme stock. Eventually they either have transfer payments from Germany to Italy and others or Germany leaves the Euro. They probably do a bit of the former before opting for the latter.

For now they will try to fudge. By delaying interest rate rises and then proceeding slowly they can capture some more of the inflation for tax receipts. Means inflation gets worse than it would have been.

To me it looks like there is no way out. The imbalances are too great and have been ignored. Italy will devalue it's currency eventually. France might try and go along with Germany and Benelux in a new North Euro forgetting that half of their country and most of its spirit is southern European.

[Democorruptcy]

10 hours ago, working woman said:

We will know a journalist has been reading this entertaining thread  if we see a best selling book in the style of a steamy Jilly Cooper novel, with a title along the lines of  "Stockmarkets and  Tumbles" or "Macros and Massages". 

Come on journalist, fess up, you are only here for the hilarious tales of romantic adventures............

The journalists and other lurkers are here for info about where to get the latest yellow reduced sticker items. Everybody is trying to reduce their personal inflation these days.