Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[HousePriceMania]

 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

 

seems same lady was in the Telegraph too

Last orders for Britain's pubs as energy crisis strikes

Miranda Richardson, landlady of the Live and Let Live, has been told the £1,400 she pays each month for gas and electricity will rise by 50pc thanks to the escalating energy crisis.

 

“Just to open the doors each week it costs £2,700 and that doesn’t include food and drink,” she said. “That’s just the lease, staff wages and energy bills, which are huge outgoings.

 

“I can’t make cutbacks like I can at home. You can’t tell customers to put on an extra jumper or turn lights off. The cellar equipment needs to be powered 24/7 to keep the beer cool and stock frozen, they can’t just be turned off.”

https://archive.ph/TR808

I said a few weeks back about someone i know who runs a pub told there son they don't know if they will still be in the pub next year

 

So more pubs and restaurants will go under less nice places to go

 

Was chatting with my partner about the younger ones in our family and how they don't even go out drinking when i was there age i was out Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday if i could handle it but there was so many pubs to go too, but now...

Why run a business like that when you can go on bennies?.Massive changes about to hit.Governments have destroyed the economy.Not enough produced.The economy is saying people who consume but dont produce need to consume much less until they do produce.Government is saying,no those who produce must consume less,and pay more for those who dont produce so they can consume even more.Its nuthouse stuff yet its the basis of government policy.

[Virgil Caine]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/income-tax-liabilities-statistics-tax-year-2018-to-2019-to-tax-year-2021-to-2022/summary-statistics#income-tax-payer-numbers-by-type

It’s better to look at the net drain on the UK as a whole than rely on BBC statistics.

We have a 67 million population (obviously much more than that, the census results will be interesting this year) which includes 11.7 million children. 

There is a ‘projected’ 27 million basic tax payers in the UK with 4.13 million higher tax payers and 440k additional rate.

That means roughly 24.3 million of adults (over 44%) of the population pay no income tax at all.

It was thought to be 43% in 2014/15 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/9667319/half-adults-dont-pay-income-tax/amp/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7326881/amp/How-nearly-HALF-British-adults-pay-NO-income-tax-data-reveals-23-million-adults-exempt-PAYE.html

 

 

 

Income tax is only about a third of U.K. government tax at about 198 billion. Payroll taxes including NIC come in just under 50% of total tax yield. The rest comes from indirect taxes that most consumers don’t even realise they are paying. Over the decades indirect taxes have become much more important to the U.K. government which is perhaps why they run scared at the prospect of a recession as a drop in consumption will impact their own funding. It is one of the the reasons why politicians use benefits to fund consumption and why the Chancellor is particularly happy if those in receipt of such money spunk it on fags and booze etc.  Inflation puts up costs but it also boosts the government’s tax take. The total percentage of tax as a portion of GDP is now over 30% which is where it was in the mid 1970s I believe. What has changed in the interim is the distribution of those taxes

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hmrc-tax-and-nics-receipts-for-the-uk/hmrc-tax-receipts-and-national-insurance-contributions-for-the-uk-new-annual-bulletin

https://ifs.org.uk/taxlab/key-questions/how-have-government-revenues-changed-over-time

[stoobs]

Been filling up my coal cellar recently.

6 weeks ago it was £141 for half a tonne delivered into the cellar.

Today it is £180 (from the same supplier).

Jesus.

[HousePriceMania]

BP and Shell shot up at 2.30 ( US opening time ).  Anyone know why ?

[feed]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

BP and Shell shot up at 2.30 ( US opening time ).  Anyone know why ?

guess this

Goldman Sachs has predicted oil will surge to $140 a barrel this summer, with a fall in Russian supply adding to pressures in the market.

But the bank said consumers will feel as though prices have surged to $160, in part because refinery bottlenecks mean gas prices are surging.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-forecast-us-gas-prices-goldman-sachs-refining-russia-2022-6

[RickyBacker]

Quite possibly one of the best videos I've seen about the current state of the world with a focus on global energy and supply chains. It's a monster presentation... I'm 1h 40 mins in and it is truly captivating. 
Grab a beer and enjoy / worry about the state of the world based on data and facts.

 

[janch]

Japan aren't doing too well either:

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/

They are yet to recover from covid plus their energy problems are challenging and they may be in for blackouts:

  " Japan’s power reserve ratio, which measures spare capacity, is expected to barely reach the minimum 3% needed for a stable supply in the Tokyo, Tohoku and Chubu areas next month, according to the government.
The ratio is expected to go negative for Tokyo in January and February, which would trigger blackouts. "

[HousePriceMania]

30 minutes ago, feed said:

guess this

Goldman Sachs has predicted oil will surge to $140 a barrel this summer, with a fall in Russian supply adding to pressures in the market.

But the bank said consumers will feel as though prices have surged to $160, in part because refinery bottlenecks mean gas prices are surging.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-forecast-us-gas-prices-goldman-sachs-refining-russia-2022-6

Do you think they are basing this number of the all time high of 139.33 ?

 

If people are at breaking point could we see this fall quicker than expected ?

[Hardhat]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Il be selling the rest of mine very soon.Been a fantastic call,hit the bottom on them and had a very big holding,but i want those profits in divis not windmills etc and its time to move on from them.Shares are still cheap in the context of the cycle,but it looks like the gains are on capital more than divis.I can understand their logic though,but im off with my loot.

Divi in July

[Eventually Right]

34 minutes ago, RickyBacker said:

Quite possibly one of the best videos I've seen about the current state of the world with a focus on global energy and supply chains. It's a monster presentation... I'm 1h 40 mins in and it is truly captivating. 
Grab a beer and enjoy / worry about the state of the world based on data and facts.

 

I watched about 30 mins of that last week, but haven't had the chance to watch more, but I'd agree very worthwhile watch.

 

I had a question that @Cattle Prod  might be able to help with-starting about 16 mins in for 4-5 mins, he's talking about Russian oil wells shutting down (effectively) permanently if the oil stops flowing because a lot of them are in the permafrost, and if the oil doesn't flow, the wells crack/require massive effort, and western expertise to restart them-and the western oil services companies are apparently now boycotting Russia for moral reasons.

So his thesis is this happens sooner or later, when either Russians accidentally blow up a pipeline, or the Ukrainians lose the war, start a guerrilla insurgency, and have no reason not to blow up what was once their own pipelines (because the Russians now own/control them), resulting in a massive oil supply shock.

So my question to @Cattle Prod given your expertise, is does that sound right to you?  If those pipelines get taken out, are those Russian wells quickly rendered useless for years on end?

[Chewing Grass]

The revenuers owe me tax, I just realised their paying on account wheeze means that I gave them X whole Great British Pounds last year and I effectively get 0.9X Smaller British Pounds back this year.

Cunts

[Option5]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Wonder if that bonkers Cat Cafe is still going.

Trading as a ltd company.

FAMILIARS CAT CAFÉ LTD

Up to their eyeballs in debt 

 

[Option5]

17 minutes ago, Eventually Right said:

I watched about 30 mins of that last week, but haven't had the chance to watch more, but I'd agree very worthwhile watch.

 

I had a question that @Cattle Prod  might be able to help with-starting about 16 mins in for 4-5 mins, he's talking about Russian oil wells shutting down (effectively) permanently if the oil stops flowing because a lot of them are in the permafrost, and if the oil doesn't flow, the wells crack/require massive effort, and western expertise to restart them-and the western oil services companies are apparently now boycotting Russia for moral reasons.

So his thesis is this happens sooner or later, when either Russians accidentally blow up a pipeline, or the Ukrainians lose the war, start a guerrilla insurgency, and have no reason not to blow up what was once their own pipelines (because the Russians now own/control them), resulting in a massive oil supply shock.

So my question to @Cattle Prod given your expertise, is does that sound right to you?  If those pipelines get taken out, are those Russian wells quickly rendered useless for years on end?

If the wells shut down the temperature starts to drop, below a certain temperature they won't start up again without outside stimulation.

We had some in Kazakhstan where the cold had weaked the cement in the well. One or two actually blew the tree off the top of the completion when they tried to restart them.

[feed]

52 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Do you think they are basing this number of the all time high of 139.33 ?

It's Goldman, they probably expect the conflict to end, Russian oil to re enter the market and price to fall below $80.  

[Axeman123]

"An extension of the Thatcherite right-to-buy, a joint cost-of-living speech with Rishi Sunak, the first migrant Rwanda flights, a series of high-profile foreign jaunts and a reshuffle of his team are all on the cards in the coming weeks as Mr Johnson tries to get back on track."

Source:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10891773/Boris-appeals-hard-working-Britons-let-job-confidence-vote-blow.html

The coming weeks meaning the 6 1/2 weeks until Parliament's summer recess starts on 22/7. How many contentious bills will be presented in that time, thereby presenting an opening for a humiliating defeat? Not many IMO. Welcome to a summer of inertia...

[HousePriceMania]

41 minutes ago, Option5 said:

Trading as a ltd company.

FAMILIARS CAT CAFÉ LTD

Up to their eyeballs in debt 

 

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/11911184/charges

 

Persons entitled

• Blackrock Secured Finance Limited

Brief description

The company charges to the chargee, by way of first fixed…

 

Then....

 

https://legalbeagles.info/forums/forum/legalbeagles-consumer-forums/news-and-information/1452948-alfandari-changed-name-to-blackrock-secured-finance-now-bluerock

 

Alfandari changed name to BlackRock Secured Finance ( now bluerock )

4th March 2019, 15:35:PM

 

Alfandari does not offer business loans, and nor does Nationwide Corporate Finance. They do, however, offer secured finance and hire agreements.

Alfandari changed their name in January 2019 to BlackRock Secured Finance Ltd


https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/06944649/charges

 

Persons entitled

• Barclays Bank PLC

Brief description

Contains fixed charge…

https://www.companysearchesmadesimple.com/company/uk/06944649/bluerock-secured-finance-limited/

 

 

[DoINeedOne]

I know @reformed nice guy started a thread here about Gazporm shares

Today i received a reply from HL which i posted in that thread 

[HousePriceMania]

The more you did about the finance people for the cat cafe, the more interesting it gets

 

https://ifamagazine.com/article/sundays-money-pages-9/

 

"Following up last week’s report, The Sunday Times reveals that more than 2,000 business owners are in debt to a loans firm accused of high-pressure sales tactics that families claim have cost them their homes.

The firm that offered these deals, Nationwide Corporate Finance, is run by two brothers: Kevin and Martin Robbins." 

 

"They are, or have been, listed as directors of NCF and its associated companies, including the lender Bluerock Secured Finance, previously known as Blackrock Secured Finance and before that, Alfandari Private Equities."

 

The poor cat people are in trouble me thinks.
 

 

[Funn3r]

On 06/06/2022 at 09:37, Loki said:

U.K. 15 Year Gilt 2.475%

U.K. 30 Year Gilt 2.457%

U.K. 50 Year Gilt 2.266%

 

That's not right surely?

That's amazing. The shorter the term the more you get. Do they do a U.K. 24 Hour Gilt?

[Funn3r]

On 06/06/2022 at 10:42, Mapper said:

Tis true.

Maybe, it was 10s of thousands of years.

Yes and that one place you said would still show human traces is only "allegedly" anyway.

[Spiney Norman]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The economy is saying people who consume but dont produce need to consume much less until they do produce.Government is saying,no those who produce must consume less,and pay more for those who dont produce so they can consume even more.Its nuthouse stuff yet its the basis of government policy.

Thats very well put DB.

You should say that on TV, if people understood what is happening and is about to get worse there maybe change.

You would be seen as the next "Tommy Robinson" an economic "Tommy Robinson" by the 1%.

[geordie_lurch]

Not going to lie, it's hard watching XOM hitting $102.8 after I took profits at $80 and needed the cash

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Option5 said:

Trading as a ltd company.

FAMILIARS CAT CAFÉ LTD

Up to their eyeballs in debt 

 

Dont like to focus on people,but its fascinating to see how that works out because its top of cycle stuff.

 

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Dont like to focus on people,but its fascinating to see how that works out because its top of cycle stuff.

 

It's interesting to see stuff like this, serves as a warning to people not to get into bed with people who will take everything from you.

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Not going to lie, it's hard watching XOM hitting $102.8 after I took profits at $80 and needed the cash

Me too.