Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I think Rishi and Javid took the first lfieboats they could,find a reason and resign.Sh1t's about to get real methinks.

Boris will get the blame for what's coming and he'll go into the old folks home swearing he's the reincarnation of Churchill and that he won the war against covid.

I agree, something is afoot but what's about to come  ?

[Calcutta]

10 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I agree, something is afoot but what's about to come  ?

What we need to know is why did they quit in the first place? Is it because Sunak wanted to pull back spending and save the country, or did Bojo? 

If it's the former then I guess we'll watch him fail. If its the latter then we're all fucked. 

[Noallegiance]

17 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

What we need to know is why did they quit in the first place? Is it because Sunak wanted to pull back spending and save the country, or did Bojo? 

If it's the former then I guess we'll watch him fail. If its the latter then we're all fucked. 

Quite.

Politicians all of a sudden spouting about honesty is, well, dishonest.

[sleepwello'nights]

2 hours ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

I dont buy often, i last bought in 2010 and after the Cyprus bail in (when prices promptly cratered)

But i check Baird almost daily.

But only Sovs. And when spot drops, so does a Sov. If its not as much as spot then it must be very close.

 

I don't watch physical prices very often, but I see the gold charts on Kitco. The daily price has gone from $1850 to $1750 this year. Some of the move has been covered by the fall in £UK Gold Britannias do seem a tad cheaper than I last recall. There's quite a difference between various dealers:

Baird Mint £1521.91, Coininvest £1491.86, Bullion by post £1548.00

[Bricormortis]

6 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Gold has fallen dramatically in price in July. Any idea why.

The expectation of an ECB pivot is part of the jigsaw apparently.

Commodity weakness also.

[HousePriceMania]

39 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

What we need to know is why did they quit in the first place? Is it because Sunak wanted to pull back spending and save the country, or did Bojo? 

If it's the former then I guess we'll watch him fail. If its the latter then we're all fucked. 

That's a question I've been pondering.

First thing that happened to Fat Boris in 2020 was Sajid David quit.  Little was made of it at the time.  4 weeks later we have £1Tn QE and 0% IRs and a YES MAN chancellor.  

Roll forward 2 years.  Inflation 11%, IRs 1.25% and the BoE look like doing nothing about it.

House prices up 30%.

Sunak's name has been associated with all this but given that Sajid quit I'd say this was all Fat Boris.  Given his ego and unwillingness to change tact and now leave, it has the signs that this man is a banker front man will no regard for the consequences of his own actions.

Sunak's already rich, he didn't have to push up house prices 30%, Boris of the inbred blue blooded related to the monarchy, useless **** probably needed this economic miracle more than he did.

If someone has a compelling argument as to why the madness we witness was Sunak's doing I like to hear it.  It could of course be both of them, Sunak's ex GS .

[feed]

2 hours ago, afly said:

We're fucked

 

That all reads like it's part of Rishis leadership campaign 

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Old faithful never disappoints.

 

Armageddon could be declared imminent and UK housing would still go up.

What sort of armageddon? A meteor crashing to the UK would obviously obliterate some houses, so yes with supply down prices would be up. When people came out of their underground shelters, they would be rushing to buy like after the covid lockdown starting pistol was fired.

[Axeman123]

7 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

If someone has a compelling argument as to why the madness we witness was Sunak's doing I like to hear it.  It could of course be both of them, Sunak's ex GS .

IMO Javid resigning was intended to wound BJ, as spite for his having won and perhaps intended to start a trend. He was also a failed leadership contender.

Pishy was parachuted in as fair exchange for his FiL having paid for a GE campaign, no doubt with intentions that he would move next door after BJ hand become soiled "getting Brexit done". Eat out to help out had Pishy front and centre, no doubt intended to build his profile ready for the leadership and subsequent GE. The mega covid handouts in an environment of seemingly limitless scope for QE no doubt appealed to him as he expected it to be the next chancellors' problem once he was in number 10. It is only recently that Pishy has become financially cautious, no doubt fearing he would be the fall guy.

[Harley]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv also bought a few more Ashmore this morning.

Macro: Talks OK

Fundamental: Assumed OK

Technical: Getting better?

[Pip321]

59 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

What we need to know is why did they quit in the first place? Is it because Sunak wanted to pull back spending and save the country, or did Bojo? 

If it's the former then I guess we'll watch him fail. If its the latter then we're all fucked. 

The way the resignation letter was written (other than it looking like a job advert of his achievements) suggested Sunak wanted to pull back the spending. Ie we have hard times ahead and about ‘being honest with people’. I think that read more economy related than recruiting sex offenders, parties, shagging women etc…those latter things are just business as usual for MPs nowadays 😉

So I think BJ wanted to spend.

However the context is now BJs resignation it now depends on who takes over…..with the inevitable outcome of ‘failing and fucking’ anyway.  

[afly]

Baker would bring Rishi back as chancellor?

 

 

[Axeman123]

3 minutes ago, afly said:

Baker would bring Rishi back as chancellor?

 

 

Baker setting out his stall as kingmaker, once he has demonstrated his support in the early stages of the contest IMO.

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, afly said:

Baker would bring Rishi back as chancellor?

 

 

"Rishi Sunak (“unfulfilled potential”)".  Question answered then.  Although IMHO more like "has yet to show potential"?

[DurhamBorn]

15 minutes ago, Harley said:

Macro: Talks OK

Fundamental: Assumed OK

Technical: Getting better?

I like their exposure to Asian debt,they should double or more from here over 4 years.Not advice to buy for anyone else,but risk/reward nice.Iv put a ladder down at £1.82 as well if needed.

[HousePriceMania]

57 minutes ago, feed said:

That all reads like it's part of Rishis leadership campaign 

Suddenly he's no longer the idiot who's destroyed the economy but the nice fella who saved us and everyone wants as PM.

A billionaire father in law could buy a lot of friends.

[afly]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

Suddenly he's no longer the idiot who's destroyed the economy but the nice fella who saved us and everyone wants as PM.

A billionaire father in law could buy a lot of friends.

I never understood that about Mays election. She was only able to form a majority because she formed a coalition with the DUP by giving them £2bn of public money. That seemed scandalous to me? The press didnt really say much about it at the time, but I'm fairly sure that most people could become PM if they had access to £2bn of other peoples money to fritter away on getting there.

[HousePriceMania]

15 minutes ago, afly said:

I never understood that about Mays election. She was only able to form a majority because she formed a coalition with the DUP by giving them £2bn of public money. That seemed scandalous to me? The press didnt really say much about it at the time, but I'm fairly sure that most people could become PM if they had access to £2bn of other peoples money to fritter away on getting there.

The msm are all complicit and part of the establishment scam 

[Boglet]

5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

Yeah I think it's time to harbour some tins.COuld be a tought winter.For me big kahuna includes breaking of the credit wave in the banks and debt deflation.

Funily enough MP,Mrs P has always mocked my hoarding of tins and water filters and then two nights back we had a power cut and she was worreid about dinner getting cooekd for the kids.No rpoblems says I,wood out of the garage,Barby sparked and food cooked outside.All of a sudden I'm not such a loon....:-)

 

 

Steve baker would be my pick of a very bad bunch.I like the cut of his jib and he's the most libertarian leaning of the tories in parliemnt but he' s surrounded by blood suckers and blood suckers generally pick blood suckers to dish out the goodies.

Must say the US has some promising talent coming through eg ron de santis but for me this  is the sort of leader we need

 

LOL that's great. 

I'm a white nationalist and even I would give very serious consideration to voting for this guy 

[THEFREEMAN]

Gonna have a pint of cask or ginger beer and a chocolate bar tonight to celebrate USD to DKK roping 7.30

onwards and upwards to 8.00

[Ash4781b]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

The way the resignation letter was written (other than it looking like a job advert of his achievements) suggested Sunak wanted to pull back the spending. Ie we have hard times ahead and about ‘being honest with people’. I think that read more economy related than recruiting sex offenders, parties, shagging women etc…those latter things are just business as usual for MPs nowadays 😉

So I think BJ wanted to spend.

However the context is now BJs resignation it now depends on who takes over…..with the inevitable outcome of ‘failing and fucking’ anyway.  

reigning in public spending, while households cut back on consumer spending, businesses cut investment and the Bank of England raising rates would be tough times.

My issue is a lot of business models will be totally smashed to pieces. 

[Democorruptcy]

Hussman:

Are we there yet?

 

[Ash4781b]

BTL could be in a huge mess. I remember from last time many had no firebreak to their residential property and mortgage. Although I expect gov’ would bailout. They always do.

[feed]

17 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

reigning in public spending, while households cut back on consumer spending, businesses cut investment and the Bank of England raising rates would be tough times.

My issue is a lot of business models will be totally smashed to pieces. 

 

[HousePriceMania]

19 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

BTL could be in a huge mess. 

Thanks, i needed cheering up today