Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I just don't see the current energy prices as sustainable, and only Russia can provide releif. Sooner or later the EU is going to have to make some kind of dirty deal and pivot to a more ambiguous alignment IMO, akin to Turkey. There are no other alternatives for the decade ahead. LNG? nowhere near the capacity, long lead-times to add more. SMRs? lead-time. A return to medieval living standards? Le Penn et al will rise.

Don't get me wrong, the EU will never openly align with BRICS or renounce its NATO alignment. I would however expect to see strategic relaxation and non-enforcement of sanctions in tandem with the same old rhatoric. Watch what they do and ignore what they say. We are already seeing this with the pipeline turbine etc.

For sure I agree with your main point, but I still see big disparity in price. After all Europe has missed the cheap longterm gas contract it could have done with Russia. At same time US energy is nominally cheaper, it's domesticly produced meaning no added transport costs, and far less taxed.

Thing is I'm assuming US will be even more agrresive on its cost cutting going forward if it wants to onshore it's own industries, and so wonder how this will play out In competition with Europe...  plus should UK become part of NAFTA quick sharp?!

[feed]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Truss will win the next election easily if she sticks to the policies she states.If she just stopped the boats and returned a load she would win.The public sense something is badly badly wrong and are desperate for tough policies.Crucial to her is getting the right people in her cabinet.Its a shame our country isnt big enough to split like India and Pakistan and send the lefties to one half.The Tories have been a disaster as well as the last Labour government mainly because they have moved to the left.Most of the Red Wall voters i know who moved from Labour at the last election would scrap bennies and machine gun the invaders in the channel.Where the media get the idea they want more of both i dont know.

They're slaves to the macro.  

As much as we talk about the failure of the British political system, their options have been limited for the last 20+ years by Greenspans actions post 9/11 and dot com bust, followed by the GFC.  The fear of a deflationary collapse. real or imaginary.    

The left seem to be under the impression that giving money to those that spend it to shore up velocity was something else.  Of course those vested in the continuation will fight the change, but it's inevitable.  We’re in the end of a 40 year cycle transition.  And transitional places and spaces are always the most dangerous.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Have you not been outside today?

We don't need Putin's energy look how much Solar Power we are producing.

♫ Who do think you think you are kidding Mr Putler♫

Dad's Army, Allo Allo...  When will someone be brave enough to make a gentle comedy about the brutish and inept USSR?        ...However maybe that opportunity is now missed if we are now entering a new Cold War II? 

[Harley]

18 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/r/rio-tinto-plc-ordinary-10p

That is a whopper of a divi, if accurate.

Also, a big cliff on the morning of the 11th.

Interesting stuff, thanks.

It's the candle on the 5 Aug22, especially the HA candle, that's the humdinger.  Drifting higher atm but not much conviction, as that candle suggests.  Like several others.  Glad you pointed out the cliff on 11 Aug22.  Maybe I need to day trade these ones or use some limit orders.  I could have paid for a year's heating oil there!

[M S E Refugee]

11 minutes ago, JMD said:

Dad's Army, Allo Allo...  When will someone be brave enough to make a gentle comedy about the brutish and inept USSR?        ...However maybe that opportunity is now missed if we are now entering a new Cold War II? 

At the moment comedy is pretty much dead and has been for quite a few years.

[Bobthebuilder]

23 minutes ago, Harley said:

It's the candle on the 5 Aug22, especially the HA candle, that's the humdinger.  Drifting higher atm but not much conviction, as that candle suggests.  Like several others.  Glad you pointed out the cliff on 11 Aug22.  Maybe I need to day trade these ones or use some limit orders.  I could have paid for a year's heating oil there!

I bought some FRES earlier this year, similar roller-coaster price wise. Been thinking of attempting to trade it between 6.50-7.50. might try some RIO also.

I need to start trying a bit of trading, been very lazy on this thread so far regarding that.

But then again, look at those lovely divis, whopper with cheese and bacon.

[M S E Refugee]

43 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Truss will win the next election easily if she sticks to the policies she states.If she just stopped the boats and returned a load she would win.The public sense something is badly badly wrong and are desperate for tough policies.Crucial to her is getting the right people in her cabinet.Its a shame our country isnt big enough to split like India and Pakistan and send the lefties to one half.The Tories have been a disaster as well as the last Labour government mainly because they have moved to the left.Most of the Red Wall voters i know who moved from Labour at the last election would scrap bennies and machine gun the invaders in the channel.Where the media get the idea they want more of both i dont know.

We got stuck on the A66 yesterday so I decided to take a detour over the Peninines back to Cumbria and passed through your neck of the woods.

I have never been to Barnard Castle before and I have to say it is stunning, it took ages to get back home but it was a very enjoyable drive home.

[JMD]

49 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

These guys are so big they can do deals themselves,Evonik is firing up its own coal fired powe station.They also have plants in other countries BASF is huge in Asian.Hydrogen will be the big fuel in time,i still think most cars will end up hydrogen even though nobody seems to think so at the moment.At Cummins we has our best guys working with Hyundai on hydrogen,then a 2nd lower team on electric.Obvious the electric were insurance,but hydrogen was the main focus.I also bought some of a company called Chemours Co (CC) during the covid crash,its trebled since,but i only bought a small holding and was wanting to add more but never got the chance to add.They make a product called Nafion we were using in the fuel cells (i worked in Emission Solutions for Cummins).

Thanks DB. Many good points you make there. My fixed energy deal runs out next March, and I think all the prospects of frighteningly high prices are negatively biasing my thought processes!?!

 I'd had heard of the industrial energy switch occuring (from gas to coal), but did think this might be impractical for most factories, etc? Confess I am pretty ignorant about this important topic. Maybe someone (technical?) could post more info about the coal energy switch - in terms of how successful it could be for Europe, plus also how long such a change could/would take?

[Axeman123]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

For sure I agree with your main point, but I still see big disparity in price. After all Europe has missed the cheap longterm gas contract it could have done with Russia. At same time US energy is nominally cheaper, it's domesticly produced meaning no added transport costs, and far less taxed.

Thing is I'm assuming US will be even more agrresive on its cost cutting going forward if it wants to onshore it's own industries, and so wonder how this will play out In competition with Europe...  plus should UK become part of NAFTA quick sharp?!

I bolded the IMO important part, the USA is now a rival to Europe. Hobbling them with uncompetitive energy prices stops American companies putting manufacturing there that has been pulled back from Asia.

I would expect NAFTA to be strictly limited to the geographic Americas, and Mexico/the isthmus countries/Colombia to pick up any low wage stuff that the USA doesn't want within it's own borders.

[Ma2]

4 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

Indeed any army that can make hypersonic missiles from washing machines and fridges would be unstoppable

Sounds like they might have hired The A Team 

[ThoughtCriminal]

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

 

What a fucking legend Putin is.

[Loki]

10 hours ago, RJT1979 said:

 

 

 

YES

[Bobthebuilder]

9 minutes ago, Loki said:

YES

They did a right shit job anyway, best rip it out and start again.

Anecdotal. Trade work in London is drying up, have a neighbor whos sleeping on site 20 miles from home painting a flat????????????

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Loki said:

YES

It happens alot, sometimes on a small scale, like when you  don't get paid for fitting front door locks, getting shafted and the only recourse is to drop the whole bunch of keys ( 15 sets)  into the river, all 3 for the set, after sneaking  back on site and locking the doors. Should have paid up instead of  scamming bloke. 

It is against the law to do damage blah blah blah. Fuck em. Don't let em finish the job, then say you ain't happy ( never had intent to pay or knew they couldn't afford it). 

[Loki]

13 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

They did a right shit job anyway, best rip it out and start again.

Anecdotal. Trade work in London is drying up, have a neighbor whos sleeping on site 20 miles from home painting a flat????????????

I don't go anywhere near that shithole anymore unless it's made extremely worth my while 

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

I don't go anywhere near that shithole anymore unless it's made extremely worth my while 

Its my life 24/7, been here for decades.

What do you call worth your while, as an hourly rate?

Genuine question.

[onlyme]

23 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

They did a right shit job anyway, best rip it out and start again.

Anecdotal. Trade work in London is drying up, have a neighbor whos sleeping on site 20 miles from home painting a flat????????????

Not surprised at all, felt this was coming, been positioning myself for the last few weeks for even more flexibility work wise at least cost possible to ride the storm. 

[tank]

12 hours ago, Boon said:

It would be extremely embarrassing for the Tories to vote a leader in and then do a vote of confidence 12 months later. Not that I can see it happening, even Boris had a period when he was solid. 

Sure the public are going to be pissed off with her, and odds-on there will be social unrest. But IMO she is enacting the policies that many in the party want. I think no MPs are gonna say it but what is the point of handing out loads of cash to people, if they aren't gonna vote for you anyway? 

I think the most likely outcome is Labour winning at the next GE but with a hung parliament it might be real difficult to bring much genuine change in.

 

She is telling the old farts and armchair generals who make up the Tory membership what they want to hear. Not hard when you're a blond ditz and your opponent is a 'commie darkie'. 😀 😃

She was way out of her depth as foreign secretary, so I can't see her improving as PM, nor can I see her implementing anything radically different from Johnson. 

Starmer is no Corbyn. He is a 'safe pair of hands' - i.e. a vaucous Blairite - as far the media proprietors and The City are concerned. It's the powerful rentiers at the top who benefit from loose fiscal and monetary policy, not to mention the Tory voting landlord class. There will be a lot of very nervous Tory MPs come the new year if the economy takes a turn. What some card carrying old fart in Tunbridge Wells thinks will be the last thing on their minds if the opinion polls are showing a Labour landslide.

[Loki]

12 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Its my life 24/7, been here for decades.

What do you call worth your while, as an hourly rate?

Genuine question.

For London? Nothing anyone would pay when there's plenty of busy fools willing to enter the crucible and undercut each other 

That's no reflection on you as it sounds like you have a good thing going with repeat decent customers etc.  We're in different spheres 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Rollseyes said:

cooking a pizza in my ridge monkey

Is that what they call it these days

[Bobthebuilder]

1 minute ago, Rollseyes said:

Will wave at you from my camper when you are putting up your tent in the rain, assuming it's not while I am cooking a pizza in my ridge monkey. 

I will scratch my bollocks in my hotel room as breakfast is served.

[Don Coglione]

21 minutes ago, tank said:

She is telling the old farts and armchair generals who make up the Tory membership what they want to hear. Not hard when you're a blond ditz and your opponent is a 'commie darkie'. 😀 😃

She was way out of her depth as foreign secretary, so I can't see her improving as PM, nor can I see her implementing anything radically different from Johnson. 

Starmer is no Corbyn. He is a 'safe pair of hands' - i.e. a vaucous Blairite - as far the media proprietors and The City are concerned. It's the powerful rentiers at the top who benefit from loose fiscal and monetary policy, not to mention the Tory voting landlord class. There will be a lot of very nervous Tory MPs come the new year if the economy takes a turn. What some card carrying old fart in Tunbridge Wells thinks will be the last thing on their minds if the opinion polls are showing a Labour landslide.

The PM is merely a figurehead these days (cf Biden); what matters is the advice she/he receives from the mandarins. If Truss has some true macro realists pulling her chain, we might just come out of this in one piece,

[leonardratso]

6 minutes ago, Loki said:

Is that what they call it these days

hmm sounds like a euphemism for taking a crap.

[DurhamBorn]

8 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

We got stuck on the A66 yesterday so I decided to take a detour over the Peninines back to Cumbria and passed through your neck of the woods.

I have never been to Barnard Castle before and I have to say it is stunning, it took ages to get back home but it was a very enjoyable drive home.

I worked there for 10 years at GSK,fantastic around here.I take it you went over the tops through Middleton in Teesdale and over to Alston.If you drove past Brampton back in Cumbria i had a few very interesting weekends staying in The Howard Arms with a sales manager for Greggs from Glasgow, 

[DurhamBorn]

8 hours ago, JMD said:

Thanks DB. Many good points you make there. My fixed energy deal runs out next March, and I think all the prospects of frighteningly high prices are negatively biasing my thought processes!?!

 I'd had heard of the industrial energy switch occuring (from gas to coal), but did think this might be impractical for most factories, etc? Confess I am pretty ignorant about this important topic. Maybe someone (technical?) could post more info about the coal energy switch - in terms of how successful it could be for Europe, plus also how long such a change could/would take?

When i started work in 86 most factories still produced their own heat with a boiler room and boiler man.My first ever job was doing work experience with the boiler man at a local clothing company when i was 14.He used to cook our sausages on the top of the boiler.He was only little,but strongest man iv ever seen and he was over 60 then,he used to shovel the coal in but also fix everything.He had a small holding as well.He said come here friday before xmas and il give you a turkey tell your mam not to buy one.So i went and he gave me a turkey in a sack with its head sticking out,very much alive,i had a hell of a job getting it home on my BMX it kept trying to bite my hands.My dad chopped its head off with an axe.