Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[janch]

3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Speaking of Thungella........

 

530% in a year!

 

Hope you all choke on your divis.

 

Bastards. 😂

I've been in and out a couple of times already!   I got the initial free shares and sold more or less straight away instead of adding to them.  I rebought and then sold again at a loss in the dip around Nov 21.  IIRC they had problems getting the coal to the coast because of a decrepit railway line and I got nervous.  I rebought in April this year and will be hanging on now.  I post as this is almost textbook of how not to trade/invest.   Of course in retrospect it's easy to see what should have been done and in my defence it was a new spin-off from AAL and it could have been a disastrous flop.  I don't have much of a holding but the divi will be nice.

[HousePriceMania]

26 minutes ago, Harley said:

Pretty much.  5% bonds, split US and UK long duration government and TIPS, and 35% cash, split deposits, and UK and US short term government bonds, etc.

Just a snapshot.  Too much cash (especially GBP) but not seeing much more out there atm within the mandated (by me!) risk reward setup.  Most equities were drawn down to their initial ladders and only recently have started to be ramped back up for some holdings (based on their charts).

Where did you buy your " government and TIPS" bonds  ? 

[M S E Refugee]

6 minutes ago, manservantjerkins said:

One man with a 27 inch neck who had to wait 6 weeks for a special order shirt

For some reason I automatically thought he had a long neck but now I realise you meant girth.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Russian Defense Ministry: “Three MiG-31 aircraft with Kinzhal hypersonic missiles have been relocated to the Chkalovsk airfield in the Kaliningrad region and are starting round-the-clock duty.”

 

Speculation is that these are highly likely to be nuclear warheads. Can hit almost anywhere in Europe within a few minutes from Kaliningrad as they travel at 150 miles per MINUTE.

 

Looks like Putin has decided to ramp things up.

[manservantjerkins]

1 minute ago, M S E Refugee said:

For some reason I automatically thought he had a long neck but now I realise you meant girth.

He needed a neck bra 

[Plan-b]

An old Video but it still applies, the comments indicate the extent of the damage done. 

 

 

[JMD]

5 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I think Rafi Farber will be correct and many assets will hyper-deflate against Gold and Silver.

You still like the divi paying stocks though don't you? Or are they only short term holds for you?

I'm thinking you might be 50% PM's?... I am being nosey of course, you obviously don't have to answer that question.

[M S E Refugee]

24 minutes ago, JMD said:

You still like the divi paying stocks though don't you? Or are they only short term holds for you?

Yes I like the dividend stocks and my biggest holdings are in AEI,HHI,SCF with the rest of the Portfolio made up of Miners, and Energy.

My Freetrade ISA is me plagiarising @DurhamBorn's ideas such as Emerging Markets (Latin America and Turkey) , Asset Managers, Silver Miners, Coal and I like Marine Transportation and Pipelines.

I also have a year's wages in Physical Silver.

[Errol]

48 minutes ago, JMD said:

Women prefer the office temperature to be 25C and the men 22C apparently!   

Both of these temperatures are far too high!

[nirvana]

On 06/08/2022 at 20:51, nirvana said:

how about this one? that's taken from MT4......XAUUSD........if it can clear 1790 and gets some wind behind it could go on a run OR methinks EURUSD longs from 1.015 looks interesting 

 

FAIL!!! at both 1790 and 1780 so the whales decided to BUM THE SHIT OUT OF THE GOLD HODLERS AGAIN....

Sorry gents but that's how Mr Market works 

 

[Inigo]

55 minutes ago, manservantjerkins said:

Worked as a department "manager" at a new build store a good few years ago; one of the conditions of the planning permission being granted meant they had to offer a large chunk of jobs to the people at the job centre opposite. Holy shit, some people are beyond useless. One man with a 27 inch neck who had to wait 6 weeks for a special order shirt, another grown man cried when asked why it took him 5 minutes to put ONE case out on a shelf.

They also hired some consultancy to come up with a new management structure: instead of department manager, supervisor, worker, they decided on multiple "co-managers", so immediately peoples backs were up when they found out other people's salaries, no one was actually in charge, and nothing got done. 

When they took over Safeway, they got rid of all the scanners etc, preferring manual, paper based counts, then realiised that was retarded and brought them back in at significant cost and reduced functionality.

I hope they go out of business
 

I had a mate in the nineties whose dad was big in the food business.  When his dad came to visit they would go to the Morrison's for Sunday lunch.  Ken Morrison was still a gruff, old-fashioned Yorkshireman and wanted to run Morrison's as a cheap and cheerful northern supermarket.  Apparently it was his kids who wanted to expand and compete with the big boys.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Turkey are ahead of the game,inflation will slow there,their bonds have been rallying for a while.

Rate cut and the election due.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Where did you buy your " government and TIPS" bonds  ? 

LSE ETFS.  IBTL, GOV, GILS and UTIP.  A recent ladder into EMHG as well.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I am oddly upbeat about the UKs prospects.

Watched the Panorama about the failed mini-bonds etc under Bailey's watch at the FSA on iplayer last night. Nothing in that was new, and yet suddenly it is front and centre. That doesn't just happen. I take this as a sign Bailey is on the way out, and a shift in monetary policy is coming.

Truss is really telling it like it is. We have all been here before where they make the right noises and then carry on with business as usual of course, but this time feels different. Even lefty newspapers are starting to sound like us on here. The overton window has shifted dramatically, and that generally precedes action. Even Pishy has been trying to outdo her on DOSBODianism, the consensus in the leadership contest would have been considered radical just a year ago!

I agree that Britain is on a knife edge, but I see signs that the right people get it and have sensible plans. Maybe I am just a dreamer of course.

I agree regarding Bailey. Are there any good (dosbodian) contenders for his job?

I will look out for a 'night of the long knives' cabinet purge once Truss assumes her leader role. I expect this to happen during the first two weeks, but if doesn't then for me that would imply Truss has no real ambition to implement the deep changes necessary. After all she will need loyal/capable lieutenants, maybe also a 'Chingford Skinhead'/Norman Tebbit type to keep her backbencher and cabinet rabble in line!

[Jay]

6 hours ago, Harley said:

Or just read up on Venezuela.

Nah…it ain’t gonna get that bad..is it…

[ThoughtCriminal]

I think we have a consensus here, more or less, that if Truss doesn't do a Thatcher then UK PLC is fucked.

 

You'd imagine that would become clear within 6 months as she makes her cabinet appointments and policy choices.

 

My question is: if it's all bullshit and we are indeed on the Titanic then what do we do? Where is our lifeboat? 

 

I think we need to start thinking about it because that point is approaching rapidly.

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I think we have a consensus here, more or less, that if Truss doesn't do a Thatcher then UK PLC is fucked.

 

You'd imagine that would become clear within 6 months as she makes her cabinet appointments and policy choices.

 

, my question is: if it's all bullshit and we are indeed on the Titanic then what do we do? Where is our lifeboat? 

 

I think we need to start thinking about it because that point is approaching rapidly.

More like 6 weeks than 6 months, just wait till the banksters get back from holiday, the action will start at the end of September if not a week or two before then.

[Pip321]

51 minutes ago, nirvana said:

FAIL!!! at both 1790 and 1780 so the whales decided to BUM THE SHIT OUT OF THE GOLD HODLERS AGAIN....

Sorry gents but that's how Mr Market works 

 

I have looked up the economic and stock broker terminology in my reference books but struggled to find ‘bum the shit out of gold hodlers’ but I think I get the gist 😂

At the risk of stating the obvious it is becoming increasingly transparent that the concerted effort will continue to ensure Gold (and silver) paper value is suppressed indefinitely….and anyone holding be made to feel they are wrong. I think it will continue right up to the last minute….indeed before that we could see even cheaper prices  

For me, Gold will then come into its own when literally everything collapses ie currencies, stock and housing markets and by that time it will be too late to try buy gold.

One thing I know for certain JP Morgan will somehow by magic make money from whatever happens.

[M S E Refugee]

3 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I think we have a consensus here, more or less, that if Truss doesn't do a Thatcher then UK PLC is fucked.

 

You'd imagine that would become clear within 6 months as she makes her cabinet appointments and policy choices.

 

My question is: if it's all bullshit and we are indeed on the Titanic then what do we do? Where is our lifeboat? 

 

I think we need to start thinking about it because that point is approaching rapidly.

I got my Polish Passport the other Monday but the only sensible Country in Europe is Hungary.

I've not lost hope on the UK, hopefully we will see some Bulldog spirit once people have empty stomachs and are freezing.

I bet many more people know about the WEF than they did 18 months ago.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Are you buying at the minute? I'm still far to heavy in cash, I'm far too pessimistic on stocks so I'm pondering buying more silver and gold.

 

Think SP said being neutral isn't really an option and I have to agree. Sitting in cash waiting for BK is looking like slow suicide.

 

Approx. 18 months ago I was 30% cash, but now 15% cash. I have mostly bought PM's/mining stocks. I'm still waiting for a BK buying opp, but if in the meantime PM's ramp up I shall sell most of them with the intention of buying back lower after any BK. It does mean i'm currently very overweight PM's (nearly double what I'd ideally hold long term) but as you comment sitting on the sidelines looked increasingly like a bad idea. 

[Jay]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Turkey are ahead of the game,inflation will slow there,their bonds have been rallying for a while.

They announced resumption of diplomatic ties with Israel..clever move..am still speculating that they will cut a couple of more times, lira depreciation of another 10%..if/when that happens probably pre election then I will join the party..gradually..erdogan is slowly getting more pragmatic and showing leadership abilities imo..I think you maybe ahead of the pack..

[M S E Refugee]

China ramps up gold buying – Bloomberg https://www.rt.com/business/561105-china-ramps-up-gold-buying/

China imported 80 tons of Gold from Switzerland last month.

[Jay]

11 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I got my Polish Passport the other Monday but the only sensible Country in Europe is Hungary.

I've not lost hope on the UK, hopefully we will see some Bulldog spirit once people have empty stomachs and are freezing.

I bet many more people know about the WEF than they did 18 months ago.

The Swiss seem to be quite sensible too..

[spongeh]

59 minutes ago, Inigo said:

I had a mate in the nineties whose dad was big in the food business.  When his dad came to visit they would go to the Morrison's for Sunday lunch.  Ken Morrison was still a gruff, old-fashioned Yorkshireman and wanted to run Morrison's as a cheap and cheerful northern supermarket.  Apparently it was his kids who wanted to expand and compete with the big boys.

I worked at Morrisons through the 90s & 2000s and sat having lunch with Ken on serval occasions, he was a decent guy, who had time for his workers.

I don't think it was his kids that pushed for the expansion as Ken was still in charge when they took over Safeways and his kids were generally wasters. 

Once they took over Safeways, that was when the rot set in.

[Plan-b]

27 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

I have looked up the economic and stock broker terminology in my reference books but struggled to find ‘bum the shit out of gold hodlers’ but I think I get the gist 😂

At the risk of stating the obvious it is becoming increasingly transparent that the concerted effort will continue to ensure Gold (and silver) paper value is suppressed indefinitely….and anyone holding be made to feel they are wrong. I think it will continue right up to the last minute….indeed before that we could see even cheaper prices  

For me, Gold will then come into its own when literally everything collapses ie currencies, stock and housing markets and by that time it will be too late to try buy gold.

One thing I know for certain JP Morgan will somehow by magic make money from whatever happens.

Gold is a bet against Governments and Central Banks.

 It only has to do its job once I hope I never see that day. 

"Gold Is Money, Everything Else Is Credit" JP Morgan