Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Wouldn't be surprised about Morrisons going under given it's more expensive than not only Aldi and Lidl, but also Tesco and Sainsburys. Most of their supermarkets feel dingy as fook.

Yes dingy, plus seems like they've had their lighting turned down for years, or is that just me? But now with the energy price rises, will they issue candles at the door?!  (...back to to 70s we go ladies and gentlemen shoppers)

[DurhamBorn]

400 job losses.Its just been on our local TV news.The below comment is the interesting one.They couldnt get workers.There will be tens of thousands on bennies in the catchment area.They interviewed several workers,every one was Eastern European.Obvious company couldnt get any locals to work for minimum wage,they prefer bennies.This is an example of systemic collapse.Its not that there arent workers,its that they cant compete with bennies.

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/gateshead-orchard-factory-close-jobs-24788390

 

"There has also been a shortage of available staff to work at our Gateshead site.”

[Xtal]

2 hours ago, Errol said:

Both of these temperatures are far too high!

Horribly warm. 17 is plenty

[Yadda yadda yadda]

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

400 job losses.Its just been on our local TV news.The below comment is the interesting one.They couldnt get workers.There will be tens of thousands on bennies in the catchment area.They interviewed several workers,every one was Eastern European.Obvious company couldnt get any locals to work for minimum wage,they prefer bennies.This is an example of systemic collapse.Its not that there arent workers,its that they cant compete with bennies.

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/gateshead-orchard-factory-close-jobs-24788390

 

"There has also been a shortage of available staff to work at our Gateshead site.”

A part of the country where housing is relatively cheap ought to be one where minimum wage work can easily outcompete benefits. Scandalous that it doesn't.

[M S E Refugee]

22 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

400 job losses.Its just been on our local TV news.The below comment is the interesting one.They couldnt get workers.There will be tens of thousands on bennies in the catchment area.They interviewed several workers,every one was Eastern European.Obvious company couldnt get any locals to work for minimum wage,they prefer bennies.This is an example of systemic collapse.Its not that there arent workers,its that they cant compete with bennies.

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/gateshead-orchard-factory-close-jobs-24788390

 

"There has also been a shortage of available staff to work at our Gateshead site.”

When I left School in 1989 Carlisle had 5 factories and you were pretty much guaranteed to find a Job one of them and they all paid good money.

We have 3 left, Pirelli's still pay good money but the two the other Factories Carrs Biscuits and Cavaghan&Gray pay a little bit more than minimum wage so they are choc full of foreign labour.

It is pretty much pointless for the natives to take these jobs.

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

LSE ETFS.  IBTL, GOV, GILS and UTIP.  A recent ladder into EMHG as well.

Do yuo think those are near the bottom ?

 

 

[Bus Stop Boxer]

Last chunk covers gold.

[Funn3r]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Turkey are ahead of the game,inflation will slow there,their bonds have been rallying for a while.

I went there a few months back expecting a backward desperate economy and could not have been more surprised. How do I invest? Already tried Turkcell in my HL ISA and got knocked back as I may have said. 

[M S E Refugee]

6 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

I went there a few months back expecting a backward desperate economy and could not have been more surprised. How do I invest? Already tried Turkcell in my HL ISA and got knocked back as I may have said. 

https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251879/ishares-msci-turkey-ucits-etf

[onlyme]

33 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

400 job losses.Its just been on our local TV news.The below comment is the interesting one.They couldnt get workers.There will be tens of thousands on bennies in the catchment area.They interviewed several workers,every one was Eastern European.Obvious company couldnt get any locals to work for minimum wage,they prefer bennies.This is an example of systemic collapse.Its not that there arent workers,its that they cant compete with bennies.

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/gateshead-orchard-factory-close-jobs-24788390

 

"There has also been a shortage of available staff to work at our Gateshead site.”

i can't think of a more disincentivising environment than one where a wage won't put a roof over your head - either purchased or rented, even shared in some cases.  Wage and living cost arbitrage obviously still ongoing - EE's can slum it for a few years and set themselves up in their homeland, no such getout for the locals, an opportunity for one group, a curse for another. Yes the benefits should not be that high, but they are largely that high thanks to the same bubble in capital and rental values, the rent due passing directly from taxpayer to landlord. 

I'm not trying to make excuses for a large proportion that may be lazy sods but this whole system has sucked for 20 years, the growth of BTL and mass economic migration have gone hand in hand in a positive feedback mechanism that has handed the taxpayer the bill for corporates to have the bargaining power to bring in such things as zero hour contracts and wages in real terms that have dwindled or outright collapsed compared to say the price / cost of housing.

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

One thing I know for certain JP Morgan will somehow by magic make money from whatever happens.

exactly that's the plan......and apologies think I was a bit hyper earlier after too much Kouign Amann....

PS in other news WTI rallied heavily off 85 so if you didn't make a fortune off that, take more notes next time comrades 

 

[onlyme]

4 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This is the definitive example of giving zero fucks.

Reckon the Turks are quite used to high inflation, certainly when travelling there a few times 30 years ago on each visit you'd have to recalibrate your exchange rate from the year before. I suppose if everything goes up in roughly the same proportion, wages, cost of goods, housing, investments it makes little difference, just a nominal sum on a piece of paper. It might encourage people to invest their time and use their money rather than sitting on it  as well. What is means for pension and alike who knows, maybe in such a long run inflationary environment your pension is invested in somewhat different assets to cope with the likelihood of similar for most of your life.

[Calcutta]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

400 job losses.Its just been on our local TV news.The below comment is the interesting one.They couldnt get workers.There will be tens of thousands on bennies in the catchment area.They interviewed several workers,every one was Eastern European.Obvious company couldnt get any locals to work for minimum wage,they prefer bennies.This is an example of systemic collapse.Its not that there arent workers,its that they cant compete with bennies.

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/gateshead-orchard-factory-close-jobs-24788390

 

"There has also been a shortage of available staff to work at our Gateshead site.”

Moving the work to a mothballed factory in Corby,  where a 1bed flat is £700pm and the people who work in it will either live in HMOs or tents in the woods.  

 

[The Grey Man]

13 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Moving the work to a mothballed factory in Corby,  where a 1bed flat is £700pm and the people who work in it will either live in HMOs or tents in the woods.  

 

Saw a lad on full PIP today. Lives in S Manchester. Old house converterted to, in my parlance, bedsits. Shared bathroom. Small hob in his room. Room sounded 5m by 4m tops.

Bed by fridge. 460 notes a month. 

Landlord.  No credit checks or ID checks. Still gets the rental.

Shit hole UK.

[HousePriceMania]

8 minutes ago, The Grey Man said:

Saw a lad on full PIP today. Lives in S Manchester. Old house converterted to, in my parlance, bedsits. Shared bathroom. Small hob in his room. Room sounded 5m by 4m tops.

Bed by fridge. 460 notes a month. 

Landlord.  No credit checks or ID checks. Still gets the rental.

Shit hole UK.

Slave Colony UK

[The Grey Man]

9 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Slave Colony UK

And odd that flight list from Heathrow has been extended to mid October.

They, who are they, really don't want plebs leaving.

[feed]

31 minutes ago, The Grey Man said:

Saw a lad on full PIP today. Lives in S Manchester. Old house converterted to, in my parlance, bedsits. Shared bathroom. Small hob in his room. Room sounded 5m by 4m tops.

Bed by fridge. 460 notes a month. 

Landlord.  No credit checks or ID checks. Still gets the rental.

Shit hole UK.

I was renting something not that dissimilar to that for £100 a week almost 20 years ago.  Essex though,  

 

[Calcutta]

51 minutes ago, The Grey Man said:

Saw a lad on full PIP today. Lives in S Manchester. Old house converterted to, in my parlance, bedsits. Shared bathroom. Small hob in his room. Room sounded 5m by 4m tops.

Bed by fridge. 460 notes a month. 

Landlord.  No credit checks or ID checks. Still gets the rental.

Shit hole UK.

Standard going rate for a bedsit,  that's probably the limit the LHA rate will cover.  

In full pip he could probably blag a flat out of them,  

Only shared place I've ever lived that wasn't a fucking horrible nightmare was a trap house. That was nice,  I mean everything was trashed but we all looked out for eachother.  Door was always open,  everyone was friendly, we had all the cash and drugs we could ever want.  Golden moments. 

Any other shared place is just a grim collection of drunks and broken men.  Me included sometimes.  

The ones with foreigners can be alright,  depends where they're from.  Moldovans and gypsies are hard work,  baltic and central Europe can be sound if they're just working to save money while they're young and go home. 

Either way there's no way anyone native with a full time job or children should be anywhere near the fucking places. 

[The Grey Man]

Just now, Calcutta said:

Standard going rate for a bedsit,  that's probably the limit the LHA rate will cover.  

In full pip he could probably blag a flat out of them,  

Only shared place I've ever lived that wasn't a fucking horrible nightmare was a trap house. That was nice,  I mean everything was trashed but we all looked out for eachother.  Door was always open,  everyone was friendly, we had all the cash and drugs we could ever want.  Golden moments. 

Any other shared place is just a grim collection of drunks and broken men.  Me included sometimes.  

The ones with foreigners can be alright,  depends where they're from.  Moldovans and gypsies are hard work,  baltic and central Europe can be sound if they're just working to save money while they're young and go home. 

Either way there's no way anyone native with a full time job or children should be anywhere near the fucking places. 

Yep. This lads isssue is he needs a bit of guidance before he ends up 6ft under.

He can get better accomm.

Next door has opened up as a HMO.

I think Indians. Loads moved in to the area. Propper Indians.

As much as I was dreading it. They are pretty queit. Guessing nurses.

They have no cars yet so no wrecking of road space. Leave that to the Manc airport spazzers.

 

[spygirl]

On 16/08/2022 at 09:39, Lightscribe said:

Pay spines encourage employees to stay in a job. (It costs the tax payer around about £100k to train a police officer). You would get a higher turnover than you do now and that is already increasing at a rapid clip. They start on £20k a year. And it’s true real wage declines have happened constantly for over 15 years. Without pay spines to a reasonable wage progression there wouldn’t be any. It depends if you think it would be better without them at all. 90% of people never have any interaction with the police until they need them. Then it’s a different story.

Don’t blame the current people working they will suffer the same as everyone else, blame the system and the ridiculous pension schemes of the boomer years that were never sustainable.
 

It doesn't cost anywhere near 100k to train a copper, trust me.

 

[spygirl]

On 16/08/2022 at 11:37, Axeman123 said:

Funded by selling 50 year bonds to pension funds. What rate would they want to commit for that length of time? I predict the whole thing will fizzle, perhaps after selling some shares and making the founder rich.

Covered bonds, which don't really exist beyond 15y terms.

 

[Calcutta]

3 minutes ago, The Grey Man said:

Yep. This lads isssue is he needs a bit of guidance before he ends up 6ft under.

He can get better accomm.

Next door has opened up as a HMO.

I think Indians. Loads moved in to the area. Propper Indians.

As much as I was dreading it. They are pretty queit. Guessing nurses.

They have no cars yet so no wrecking of road space. Leave that to the Manc airport spazzers.

 

Know a few of them, probably was one 20 years ago. I got lucky,  had the right people around me and the right advice and as much as life does seem a little fucked right now,  I'm basically happy and I'm not dead like a lot of my friends are. Usually my first piece of advice to any young man is the advice I would give my younger self. 

Fuck more fat girls. 

 

[The Grey Man]

Just now, Calcutta said:

Know a few of them, probably was one 20 years ago. I got lucky,  had the right people around me and the right advice and as much as life does seem a little fucked right now,  I'm basically happy and I'm not dead like a lot of my friends are. Usually my first piece of advice to any young man is the advice I would give my younger self. 

Fuck more fat girls. 

 

I doubt the chap I saw is ready for such advice.

He has been exposed to MARAC. DV. Probation. Missed the appt today.

I won't derail futher.

[Lightscribe]

33 minutes ago, spygirl said:

It doesn't cost anywhere near 100k to train a copper, trust me.

 

https://foi.west-midlands.police.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/954_ATTACHMENT_01.pdf
 

£75k+ depending on constabulary. Don’t forget you have to train and kit specials (volunteers as well) that come and go on a whim. 

20% attrition rate, costs soon add up for every officer trained that stays the distance and actually keeps in the job.

 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/police-forces-lose-20-of-officers-during-probation-5lnts6xb2

[GoneDark]

43 minutes ago, The Grey Man said:

Yep. This lads isssue is he needs a bit of guidance before he ends up 6ft under.

He can get better accomm.

Next door has opened up as a HMO.

I think Indians. Loads moved in to the area. Propper Indians.

As much as I was dreading it. They are pretty queit. Guessing nurses.

They have no cars yet so no wrecking of road space. Leave that to the Manc airport spazzers.

 

Derailing thread.