Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Virgil Caine]

3 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I am oddly upbeat about the UKs prospects.

Watched the Panorama about the failed mini-bonds etc under Bailey's watch at the FSA on iplayer last night. Nothing in that was new, and yet suddenly it is front and centre. That doesn't just happen. I take this as a sign Bailey is on the way out, and a shift in monetary policy is coming.

Truss is really telling it like it is. We have all been here before where they make the right noises and then carry on with business as usual of course, but this time feels different. Even lefty newspapers are starting to sound like us on here. The overton window has shifted dramatically, and that generally precedes action. Even Pishy has been trying to outdo her on DOSBODianism, the consensus in the leadership contest would have been considered radical just a year ago!

I agree that Britain is on a knife edge, but I see signs that the right people get it and have sensible plans. Maybe I am just a dreamer of course.

To be honest I am amazed Bailey has lasted this long. The BOE inflation forecasting has been woeful. Presumably he is being saved to be offered up as a public sacrifice  at a suitable moment.

Quite a few quasi governmental like the BOE and the utility regulators are coming under the spotlight now for failing to come any where near matching their supposed brief. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

18 minutes ago, Harley said:

I'm about 35% equity and 25% hards like PMs.  Was a higher equity figure.  Anyways, now back above my NAV at the start of the year due to the equity.  Not so negative out there from that POV.

So you're about 40% cash Harley?

[Axeman123]

Just now, Virgil Caine said:

To be honest I amazed Bailey has lasted this long.

It does seem like his time to be sacrificed has come. The fear would be that as a distraction, and more of the same policy.

[DoINeedOne]

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I have slowed down buying as I have got a decent amount of Silver but I am buying  small amounts of Pre 1947 Silver when ever I can buy it near spot.

I think the Pre 1947 stuff could be very useful as it comes in small increments.

There will be no CGT on it either as it was legal tender.

I had a load of these from a big bag of old coins i had as a kid

Problems is after sorting them out i don't have a clue where i have put them

[ThoughtCriminal]

This is the definitive example of giving zero fucks.

[Harley]

3 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

So you're about 40% cash Harley?

Pretty much.  5% bonds, split US and UK long duration government and TIPS, and 35% cash, split deposits, and UK and US short term government bonds, etc.

Just a snapshot.  Too much cash (especially GBP) but not seeing much more out there atm within the mandated (by me!) risk reward setup.  Most equities were drawn down to their initial ladders and only recently have started to be ramped back up for some holdings (based on their charts).

[Yadda yadda yadda]

39 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This is the definitive example of giving zero fucks.

Surprising that high rates are seen as less of an electoral problem than high inflation. Wages must be keeping up.

HSBC MSCI Turkey is up a little on the day. Lira down slightly less than the market is up.

[manservantjerkins]

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Wouldn't be surprised about Morrisons going under given it's more expensive than not only Aldi and Lidl, but also Tesco and Sainsburys. Most of their supermarkets feel dingy as fook.

Worked as a department "manager" at a new build store a good few years ago; one of the conditions of the planning permission being granted meant they had to offer a large chunk of jobs to the people at the job centre opposite. Holy shit, some people are beyond useless. One man with a 27 inch neck who had to wait 6 weeks for a special order shirt, another grown man cried when asked why it took him 5 minutes to put ONE case out on a shelf.

They also hired some consultancy to come up with a new management structure: instead of department manager, supervisor, worker, they decided on multiple "co-managers", so immediately peoples backs were up when they found out other people's salaries, no one was actually in charge, and nothing got done. 

When they took over Safeway, they got rid of all the scanners etc, preferring manual, paper based counts, then realiised that was retarded and brought them back in at significant cost and reduced functionality.

I hope they go out of business
 

[DurhamBorn]

Turkey are ahead of the game,inflation will slow there,their bonds have been rallying for a while.

[JMD]

6 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/life/886196/why-is-it-always-cold-in-office-women-temperature-thermostat-science

Anyone remember these type of stories from a few years ago?

Cold temperatures in the Office are sexist!

That article references a report called 'female thermal "demand''', sounds about right. Women prefer the office temperature to be 25C and the men 22C apparently! And I note that this year the debate had morphed into the topic of the female menopause where if companies only suggested providing additional office fans during a hot summer this would be a case of mysogeny?

Of course these stories are really tragic examples of how the West has become arrogantly self-satisfied, naval-gazing, and dangerously and irresponsibility smug with itself over recent decades. However events can change quickly and this year we saw how rapidly the geopolitical tables can turn, whereby Putin has had the 'temerity' to shake a threatening stick at the West. He has metaphorically raised up the 'Russian Bear' and somewhat ironically directed it into 'proding back' at the West! The pathetic, self-flagelating and confused (was it?) responce from the West has been very telling. 

I bet that 'Female Thermal Demand' debate will now be relegated to the sewer of debate where it belongs to be... However the self-serving media have already moved on and are already ramping their next replacement shiny-new-shite story of 'Foreboding Thermonuclear Devices' (i know thats very clumsy, but I'm not a journalist!).    

[janch]

3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Speaking of Thungella........

 

530% in a year!

 

Hope you all choke on your divis.

 

Bastards. 😂

I've been in and out a couple of times already!   I got the initial free shares and sold more or less straight away instead of adding to them.  I rebought and then sold again at a loss in the dip around Nov 21.  IIRC they had problems getting the coal to the coast because of a decrepit railway line and I got nervous.  I rebought in April this year and will be hanging on now.  I post as this is almost textbook of how not to trade/invest.   Of course in retrospect it's easy to see what should have been done and in my defence it was a new spin-off from AAL and it could have been a disastrous flop.  I don't have much of a holding but the divi will be nice.

[HousePriceMania]

26 minutes ago, Harley said:

Pretty much.  5% bonds, split US and UK long duration government and TIPS, and 35% cash, split deposits, and UK and US short term government bonds, etc.

Just a snapshot.  Too much cash (especially GBP) but not seeing much more out there atm within the mandated (by me!) risk reward setup.  Most equities were drawn down to their initial ladders and only recently have started to be ramped back up for some holdings (based on their charts).

Where did you buy your " government and TIPS" bonds  ? 

[M S E Refugee]

6 minutes ago, manservantjerkins said:

One man with a 27 inch neck who had to wait 6 weeks for a special order shirt

For some reason I automatically thought he had a long neck but now I realise you meant girth.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Russian Defense Ministry: “Three MiG-31 aircraft with Kinzhal hypersonic missiles have been relocated to the Chkalovsk airfield in the Kaliningrad region and are starting round-the-clock duty.”

 

Speculation is that these are highly likely to be nuclear warheads. Can hit almost anywhere in Europe within a few minutes from Kaliningrad as they travel at 150 miles per MINUTE.

 

Looks like Putin has decided to ramp things up.

[manservantjerkins]

1 minute ago, M S E Refugee said:

For some reason I automatically thought he had a long neck but now I realise you meant girth.

He needed a neck bra 

[Plan-b]

An old Video but it still applies, the comments indicate the extent of the damage done. 

 

 

[JMD]

5 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I think Rafi Farber will be correct and many assets will hyper-deflate against Gold and Silver.

You still like the divi paying stocks though don't you? Or are they only short term holds for you?

I'm thinking you might be 50% PM's?... I am being nosey of course, you obviously don't have to answer that question.

[M S E Refugee]

24 minutes ago, JMD said:

You still like the divi paying stocks though don't you? Or are they only short term holds for you?

Yes I like the dividend stocks and my biggest holdings are in AEI,HHI,SCF with the rest of the Portfolio made up of Miners, and Energy.

My Freetrade ISA is me plagiarising @DurhamBorn's ideas such as Emerging Markets (Latin America and Turkey) , Asset Managers, Silver Miners, Coal and I like Marine Transportation and Pipelines.

I also have a year's wages in Physical Silver.

[Errol]

48 minutes ago, JMD said:

Women prefer the office temperature to be 25C and the men 22C apparently!   

Both of these temperatures are far too high!

[nirvana]

On 06/08/2022 at 20:51, nirvana said:

how about this one? that's taken from MT4......XAUUSD........if it can clear 1790 and gets some wind behind it could go on a run OR methinks EURUSD longs from 1.015 looks interesting 

 

FAIL!!! at both 1790 and 1780 so the whales decided to BUM THE SHIT OUT OF THE GOLD HODLERS AGAIN....

Sorry gents but that's how Mr Market works 

 

[Inigo]

55 minutes ago, manservantjerkins said:

Worked as a department "manager" at a new build store a good few years ago; one of the conditions of the planning permission being granted meant they had to offer a large chunk of jobs to the people at the job centre opposite. Holy shit, some people are beyond useless. One man with a 27 inch neck who had to wait 6 weeks for a special order shirt, another grown man cried when asked why it took him 5 minutes to put ONE case out on a shelf.

They also hired some consultancy to come up with a new management structure: instead of department manager, supervisor, worker, they decided on multiple "co-managers", so immediately peoples backs were up when they found out other people's salaries, no one was actually in charge, and nothing got done. 

When they took over Safeway, they got rid of all the scanners etc, preferring manual, paper based counts, then realiised that was retarded and brought them back in at significant cost and reduced functionality.

I hope they go out of business
 

I had a mate in the nineties whose dad was big in the food business.  When his dad came to visit they would go to the Morrison's for Sunday lunch.  Ken Morrison was still a gruff, old-fashioned Yorkshireman and wanted to run Morrison's as a cheap and cheerful northern supermarket.  Apparently it was his kids who wanted to expand and compete with the big boys.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Turkey are ahead of the game,inflation will slow there,their bonds have been rallying for a while.

Rate cut and the election due.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Where did you buy your " government and TIPS" bonds  ? 

LSE ETFS.  IBTL, GOV, GILS and UTIP.  A recent ladder into EMHG as well.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I am oddly upbeat about the UKs prospects.

Watched the Panorama about the failed mini-bonds etc under Bailey's watch at the FSA on iplayer last night. Nothing in that was new, and yet suddenly it is front and centre. That doesn't just happen. I take this as a sign Bailey is on the way out, and a shift in monetary policy is coming.

Truss is really telling it like it is. We have all been here before where they make the right noises and then carry on with business as usual of course, but this time feels different. Even lefty newspapers are starting to sound like us on here. The overton window has shifted dramatically, and that generally precedes action. Even Pishy has been trying to outdo her on DOSBODianism, the consensus in the leadership contest would have been considered radical just a year ago!

I agree that Britain is on a knife edge, but I see signs that the right people get it and have sensible plans. Maybe I am just a dreamer of course.

I agree regarding Bailey. Are there any good (dosbodian) contenders for his job?

I will look out for a 'night of the long knives' cabinet purge once Truss assumes her leader role. I expect this to happen during the first two weeks, but if doesn't then for me that would imply Truss has no real ambition to implement the deep changes necessary. After all she will need loyal/capable lieutenants, maybe also a 'Chingford Skinhead'/Norman Tebbit type to keep her backbencher and cabinet rabble in line!

[Jay]

6 hours ago, Harley said:

Or just read up on Venezuela.

Nah…it ain’t gonna get that bad..is it…