Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[The Grey Man]

9 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Slave Colony UK

And odd that flight list from Heathrow has been extended to mid October.

They, who are they, really don't want plebs leaving.

[feed]

31 minutes ago, The Grey Man said:

Saw a lad on full PIP today. Lives in S Manchester. Old house converterted to, in my parlance, bedsits. Shared bathroom. Small hob in his room. Room sounded 5m by 4m tops.

Bed by fridge. 460 notes a month. 

Landlord.  No credit checks or ID checks. Still gets the rental.

Shit hole UK.

I was renting something not that dissimilar to that for £100 a week almost 20 years ago.  Essex though,  

 

[Calcutta]

51 minutes ago, The Grey Man said:

Saw a lad on full PIP today. Lives in S Manchester. Old house converterted to, in my parlance, bedsits. Shared bathroom. Small hob in his room. Room sounded 5m by 4m tops.

Bed by fridge. 460 notes a month. 

Landlord.  No credit checks or ID checks. Still gets the rental.

Shit hole UK.

Standard going rate for a bedsit,  that's probably the limit the LHA rate will cover.  

In full pip he could probably blag a flat out of them,  

Only shared place I've ever lived that wasn't a fucking horrible nightmare was a trap house. That was nice,  I mean everything was trashed but we all looked out for eachother.  Door was always open,  everyone was friendly, we had all the cash and drugs we could ever want.  Golden moments. 

Any other shared place is just a grim collection of drunks and broken men.  Me included sometimes.  

The ones with foreigners can be alright,  depends where they're from.  Moldovans and gypsies are hard work,  baltic and central Europe can be sound if they're just working to save money while they're young and go home. 

Either way there's no way anyone native with a full time job or children should be anywhere near the fucking places. 

[The Grey Man]

Just now, Calcutta said:

Standard going rate for a bedsit,  that's probably the limit the LHA rate will cover.  

In full pip he could probably blag a flat out of them,  

Only shared place I've ever lived that wasn't a fucking horrible nightmare was a trap house. That was nice,  I mean everything was trashed but we all looked out for eachother.  Door was always open,  everyone was friendly, we had all the cash and drugs we could ever want.  Golden moments. 

Any other shared place is just a grim collection of drunks and broken men.  Me included sometimes.  

The ones with foreigners can be alright,  depends where they're from.  Moldovans and gypsies are hard work,  baltic and central Europe can be sound if they're just working to save money while they're young and go home. 

Either way there's no way anyone native with a full time job or children should be anywhere near the fucking places. 

Yep. This lads isssue is he needs a bit of guidance before he ends up 6ft under.

He can get better accomm.

Next door has opened up as a HMO.

I think Indians. Loads moved in to the area. Propper Indians.

As much as I was dreading it. They are pretty queit. Guessing nurses.

They have no cars yet so no wrecking of road space. Leave that to the Manc airport spazzers.

 

[spygirl]

On 16/08/2022 at 09:39, Lightscribe said:

Pay spines encourage employees to stay in a job. (It costs the tax payer around about £100k to train a police officer). You would get a higher turnover than you do now and that is already increasing at a rapid clip. They start on £20k a year. And it’s true real wage declines have happened constantly for over 15 years. Without pay spines to a reasonable wage progression there wouldn’t be any. It depends if you think it would be better without them at all. 90% of people never have any interaction with the police until they need them. Then it’s a different story.

Don’t blame the current people working they will suffer the same as everyone else, blame the system and the ridiculous pension schemes of the boomer years that were never sustainable.
 

It doesn't cost anywhere near 100k to train a copper, trust me.

 

[spygirl]

On 16/08/2022 at 11:37, Axeman123 said:

Funded by selling 50 year bonds to pension funds. What rate would they want to commit for that length of time? I predict the whole thing will fizzle, perhaps after selling some shares and making the founder rich.

Covered bonds, which don't really exist beyond 15y terms.

 

[Calcutta]

3 minutes ago, The Grey Man said:

Yep. This lads isssue is he needs a bit of guidance before he ends up 6ft under.

He can get better accomm.

Next door has opened up as a HMO.

I think Indians. Loads moved in to the area. Propper Indians.

As much as I was dreading it. They are pretty queit. Guessing nurses.

They have no cars yet so no wrecking of road space. Leave that to the Manc airport spazzers.

 

Know a few of them, probably was one 20 years ago. I got lucky,  had the right people around me and the right advice and as much as life does seem a little fucked right now,  I'm basically happy and I'm not dead like a lot of my friends are. Usually my first piece of advice to any young man is the advice I would give my younger self. 

Fuck more fat girls. 

 

[The Grey Man]

Just now, Calcutta said:

Know a few of them, probably was one 20 years ago. I got lucky,  had the right people around me and the right advice and as much as life does seem a little fucked right now,  I'm basically happy and I'm not dead like a lot of my friends are. Usually my first piece of advice to any young man is the advice I would give my younger self. 

Fuck more fat girls. 

 

I doubt the chap I saw is ready for such advice.

He has been exposed to MARAC. DV. Probation. Missed the appt today.

I won't derail futher.

[Lightscribe]

33 minutes ago, spygirl said:

It doesn't cost anywhere near 100k to train a copper, trust me.

 

https://foi.west-midlands.police.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/954_ATTACHMENT_01.pdf
 

£75k+ depending on constabulary. Don’t forget you have to train and kit specials (volunteers as well) that come and go on a whim. 

20% attrition rate, costs soon add up for every officer trained that stays the distance and actually keeps in the job.

 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/police-forces-lose-20-of-officers-during-probation-5lnts6xb2

[GoneDark]

43 minutes ago, The Grey Man said:

Yep. This lads isssue is he needs a bit of guidance before he ends up 6ft under.

He can get better accomm.

Next door has opened up as a HMO.

I think Indians. Loads moved in to the area. Propper Indians.

As much as I was dreading it. They are pretty queit. Guessing nurses.

They have no cars yet so no wrecking of road space. Leave that to the Manc airport spazzers.

 

Derailing thread. 

[spygirl]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://foi.west-midlands.police.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/954_ATTACHMENT_01.pdf
 

£75k+ depending on constabulary. Don’t forget you have to train and kit specials (volunteers as well) that come and go on a whim. 

20% attrition rate, costs soon add up for every officer trained that stays the distance and actually keeps in the job.

 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/police-forces-lose-20-of-officers-during-probation-5lnts6xb2

That's how much they claim it costs.

Work out what training they are given and you'll get a much lower figure.

Met says 59k

https://www.met.police.uk/foi-ai/metropolitan-police/disclosure-2020/february-2020/capita-cost-of-employing-a-police-officer/

And that includes coppers pay.

[The Grey Man]

My accounts require a pension meeting in the morning.

I think I will be biting my tongue on forecasts.

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Covered bonds, which don't really exist beyond 15y terms.

I assume they intend to create a market for them, otherwise they are lending LOOONG term at a fixed rate, and borrowing at a shorter term to fund it. Kind of hard to beleive that would be allowed, and the fixed rate gaurantee for a borrower would be worthless in bankruptcy for the lender.

It all just sounds like a founders enrichment scheme to me.

[Lightscribe]

25 minutes ago, spygirl said:

That's how much they claim it costs.

Work out what training they are given and you'll get a much lower figure.

Met says 59k

https://www.met.police.uk/foi-ai/metropolitan-police/disclosure-2020/february-2020/capita-cost-of-employing-a-police-officer/

And that includes coppers pay.

That’s the direct cost and doesn’t include ‘other costs’ like support staff salaries etc. They’ve also reduced the training time compared to other forces and outsourced the main portion of officer training to a college run a 3rd party contractor (which was never going to end well) so they’re hardly at Hendon.

The attrition rate is increasing as well as using direct entry routes in which its even higher.

[Axeman123]

More detail on the CPI forecast for August, that I posted yesterday (This guy had it right last month)

[Yadda yadda yadda]

25 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

More detail on the CPI forecast for August, that I posted yesterday (This guy had it right last month)

Almost a quarter of the CPI is based on 'Owner's Equivalent Rent'. A completely made up figure called imputed rent in the UK. No-one is benefiting from this 'money'. No economic activity is occurring. The house already exists and has been paid for. Maintenance is paid for by the owner, that is actual economic activity. The money not spent on rent is spent elsewhere or saved. It is lunacy.

Do they double count imputed rent and mortgage payments? I see there is no separate accounting of mortgage payments. Do they come under Other Components - Finance?

CPI and GDP are massive cons.

PS if the prediction is right pivot inbound.

[UnconventionalWisdom]

Dalio has liquidated a lot of his emerging market holdings. 

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/1849970/alibabas-delisting-risk-proves-too-much-for-ray-dalio

 

Delisting risk. Do they know something about what's coming or is it just being prudent? 

What's the hive mind's thoughts? 

[JMD]

5 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I've not lost hope on the UK, hopefully we will see some Bulldog spirit once people have empty stomachs and are freezing.

I bet many more people know about the WEF than they did 18 months ago.

Neil Oliver on GB news does a good job and must have woken millions up with his weekly monologues. NHS failures, Canadian truckers, farmers curiosity 'encouraged' to exit farming, and other topics have all been recently covered by him. Its encouraging that a broadcast channel is presenting these topics to the viewing public.

...And shameful that BBC doesn't even attempt serious reporting on these issues. I mean it's budget is well over £4billion pounds if include it's profit from worldwide commercial sales. With nearly 10% of that spent on news and current affairs - how exactly do they justify that kind of spend while operating such a poor service? 

[Bus Stop Boxer]

Concentrate....

[JMD]

6 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I think we have a consensus here, more or less, that if Truss doesn't do a Thatcher then UK PLC is fucked.

You'd imagine that would become clear within 6 months as she makes her cabinet appointments and policy choices.

My question is: if it's all bullshit and we are indeed on the Titanic then what do we do? Where is our lifeboat? 

I think we need to start thinking about it because that point is approaching rapidly.

For individual stocks, I think the @DurhamBorn idea of hedging against the risk of sterling collapse is a powerful one. So perhaps only hold UK companies that export/or is a potential on-shorer; companies that earn substantially from overseas markets especially Asia/South America to capitalise on their future potential relative currency outperformance compared to  the pound.         

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Almost a quarter of the CPI is based on 'Owner's Equivalent Rent'. A completely made up figure called imputed rent in the UK. No-one is benefiting from this 'money'. No economic activity is occurring. The house already exists and has been paid for. Maintenance is paid for by the owner, that is actual economic activity. The money not spent on rent is spent elsewhere or saved. It is lunacy.

Do they double count imputed rent and mortgage payments? I see there is no separate accounting of mortgage payments. Do they come under Other Components - Finance?

CPI and GDP are massive cons.

PS if the prediction is right pivot inbound.

Everyone in the UK has at least one shoe. Most have at least two. Almost everyone wears at least one of their shoes a day.

They could buy a new shoe each day. Or they could rent them. Look at bowling alleys. They rent out shoes and often charge money for them.

Think of the GDP that is not being counted!

 

[Harley]

6 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Do yuo think those are near the bottom ?

VGOV and IBTL are the remains of my permanent portfolio allocation (25% bonds).  I'm undecided what to do with VGOV as the chart keeps offering promise.  I would dump at the right price.  I actually increased IBTL as a sterling hedge and because its chart had promise.  All based on the charts not on the yapping.  UTIP was offering a 5% yield so used to park money, again sterling hedged.  Now 7% after falling on its ex div date.

PS: TV may have the UTIP yield wrong?

[sancho panza]

11 hours ago, MightyTharg said:

 

Gross margin sounds good at 33%. What happens to get it down to 3% net profit?

Gross profit is sale price minus cost of goods.Operating profit then takes off stuff like rent,wages,leccy etc.Net profit is operating profit minus things like interest and taxes.

@Castlevania is a pro in that game,may be able to give a better answer.

3% net is bugger all when you heating bill has jsut doubled and (gvien there a high end retialer) your footfall has jsut taken a kicking.

Time will tell.We sold them around £3 in 2017 or 2018.Glad to see them go.

I think a lot of recent private equity buy outs are about to get mullered @spygirl who knows more on that than I do.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Almost a quarter of the CPI is based on 'Owner's Equivalent Rent'. A completely made up figure called imputed rent in the UK. No-one is benefiting from this 'money'. No economic activity is occurring. The house already exists and has been paid for. Maintenance is paid for by the owner, that is actual economic activity. The money not spent on rent is spent elsewhere or saved. It is lunacy.

Do they double count imputed rent and mortgage payments? I see there is no separate accounting of mortgage payments. Do they come under Other Components - Finance?

CPI and GDP are massive cons.

PS if the prediction is right pivot inbound.

As I understand it,they don't include mortgage payments.RPI does but not CPIH

[Mapper]

2 hours ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Concentrate....

Good advice. I did, and I didn't hear a word they said.