Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[ThoughtCriminal]

I think we have a consensus here, more or less, that if Truss doesn't do a Thatcher then UK PLC is fucked.

 

You'd imagine that would become clear within 6 months as she makes her cabinet appointments and policy choices.

 

My question is: if it's all bullshit and we are indeed on the Titanic then what do we do? Where is our lifeboat? 

 

I think we need to start thinking about it because that point is approaching rapidly.

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I think we have a consensus here, more or less, that if Truss doesn't do a Thatcher then UK PLC is fucked.

 

You'd imagine that would become clear within 6 months as she makes her cabinet appointments and policy choices.

 

, my question is: if it's all bullshit and we are indeed on the Titanic then what do we do? Where is our lifeboat? 

 

I think we need to start thinking about it because that point is approaching rapidly.

More like 6 weeks than 6 months, just wait till the banksters get back from holiday, the action will start at the end of September if not a week or two before then.

[Pip321]

51 minutes ago, nirvana said:

FAIL!!! at both 1790 and 1780 so the whales decided to BUM THE SHIT OUT OF THE GOLD HODLERS AGAIN....

Sorry gents but that's how Mr Market works 

 

I have looked up the economic and stock broker terminology in my reference books but struggled to find ‘bum the shit out of gold hodlers’ but I think I get the gist 😂

At the risk of stating the obvious it is becoming increasingly transparent that the concerted effort will continue to ensure Gold (and silver) paper value is suppressed indefinitely….and anyone holding be made to feel they are wrong. I think it will continue right up to the last minute….indeed before that we could see even cheaper prices  

For me, Gold will then come into its own when literally everything collapses ie currencies, stock and housing markets and by that time it will be too late to try buy gold.

One thing I know for certain JP Morgan will somehow by magic make money from whatever happens.

[M S E Refugee]

3 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I think we have a consensus here, more or less, that if Truss doesn't do a Thatcher then UK PLC is fucked.

 

You'd imagine that would become clear within 6 months as she makes her cabinet appointments and policy choices.

 

My question is: if it's all bullshit and we are indeed on the Titanic then what do we do? Where is our lifeboat? 

 

I think we need to start thinking about it because that point is approaching rapidly.

I got my Polish Passport the other Monday but the only sensible Country in Europe is Hungary.

I've not lost hope on the UK, hopefully we will see some Bulldog spirit once people have empty stomachs and are freezing.

I bet many more people know about the WEF than they did 18 months ago.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Are you buying at the minute? I'm still far to heavy in cash, I'm far too pessimistic on stocks so I'm pondering buying more silver and gold.

 

Think SP said being neutral isn't really an option and I have to agree. Sitting in cash waiting for BK is looking like slow suicide.

 

Approx. 18 months ago I was 30% cash, but now 15% cash. I have mostly bought PM's/mining stocks. I'm still waiting for a BK buying opp, but if in the meantime PM's ramp up I shall sell most of them with the intention of buying back lower after any BK. It does mean i'm currently very overweight PM's (nearly double what I'd ideally hold long term) but as you comment sitting on the sidelines looked increasingly like a bad idea. 

[Jay]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Turkey are ahead of the game,inflation will slow there,their bonds have been rallying for a while.

They announced resumption of diplomatic ties with Israel..clever move..am still speculating that they will cut a couple of more times, lira depreciation of another 10%..if/when that happens probably pre election then I will join the party..gradually..erdogan is slowly getting more pragmatic and showing leadership abilities imo..I think you maybe ahead of the pack..

[M S E Refugee]

China ramps up gold buying – Bloomberg https://www.rt.com/business/561105-china-ramps-up-gold-buying/

China imported 80 tons of Gold from Switzerland last month.

[Jay]

11 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I got my Polish Passport the other Monday but the only sensible Country in Europe is Hungary.

I've not lost hope on the UK, hopefully we will see some Bulldog spirit once people have empty stomachs and are freezing.

I bet many more people know about the WEF than they did 18 months ago.

The Swiss seem to be quite sensible too..

[spongeh]

59 minutes ago, Inigo said:

I had a mate in the nineties whose dad was big in the food business.  When his dad came to visit they would go to the Morrison's for Sunday lunch.  Ken Morrison was still a gruff, old-fashioned Yorkshireman and wanted to run Morrison's as a cheap and cheerful northern supermarket.  Apparently it was his kids who wanted to expand and compete with the big boys.

I worked at Morrisons through the 90s & 2000s and sat having lunch with Ken on serval occasions, he was a decent guy, who had time for his workers.

I don't think it was his kids that pushed for the expansion as Ken was still in charge when they took over Safeways and his kids were generally wasters. 

Once they took over Safeways, that was when the rot set in.

[Plan-b]

27 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

I have looked up the economic and stock broker terminology in my reference books but struggled to find ‘bum the shit out of gold hodlers’ but I think I get the gist 😂

At the risk of stating the obvious it is becoming increasingly transparent that the concerted effort will continue to ensure Gold (and silver) paper value is suppressed indefinitely….and anyone holding be made to feel they are wrong. I think it will continue right up to the last minute….indeed before that we could see even cheaper prices  

For me, Gold will then come into its own when literally everything collapses ie currencies, stock and housing markets and by that time it will be too late to try buy gold.

One thing I know for certain JP Morgan will somehow by magic make money from whatever happens.

Gold is a bet against Governments and Central Banks.

 It only has to do its job once I hope I never see that day. 

"Gold Is Money, Everything Else Is Credit" JP Morgan

 

 

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Wouldn't be surprised about Morrisons going under given it's more expensive than not only Aldi and Lidl, but also Tesco and Sainsburys. Most of their supermarkets feel dingy as fook.

Yes dingy, plus seems like they've had their lighting turned down for years, or is that just me? But now with the energy price rises, will they issue candles at the door?!  (...back to to 70s we go ladies and gentlemen shoppers)

[DurhamBorn]

400 job losses.Its just been on our local TV news.The below comment is the interesting one.They couldnt get workers.There will be tens of thousands on bennies in the catchment area.They interviewed several workers,every one was Eastern European.Obvious company couldnt get any locals to work for minimum wage,they prefer bennies.This is an example of systemic collapse.Its not that there arent workers,its that they cant compete with bennies.

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/gateshead-orchard-factory-close-jobs-24788390

 

"There has also been a shortage of available staff to work at our Gateshead site.”

[Xtal]

2 hours ago, Errol said:

Both of these temperatures are far too high!

Horribly warm. 17 is plenty

[Yadda yadda yadda]

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

400 job losses.Its just been on our local TV news.The below comment is the interesting one.They couldnt get workers.There will be tens of thousands on bennies in the catchment area.They interviewed several workers,every one was Eastern European.Obvious company couldnt get any locals to work for minimum wage,they prefer bennies.This is an example of systemic collapse.Its not that there arent workers,its that they cant compete with bennies.

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/gateshead-orchard-factory-close-jobs-24788390

 

"There has also been a shortage of available staff to work at our Gateshead site.”

A part of the country where housing is relatively cheap ought to be one where minimum wage work can easily outcompete benefits. Scandalous that it doesn't.

[M S E Refugee]

22 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

400 job losses.Its just been on our local TV news.The below comment is the interesting one.They couldnt get workers.There will be tens of thousands on bennies in the catchment area.They interviewed several workers,every one was Eastern European.Obvious company couldnt get any locals to work for minimum wage,they prefer bennies.This is an example of systemic collapse.Its not that there arent workers,its that they cant compete with bennies.

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/gateshead-orchard-factory-close-jobs-24788390

 

"There has also been a shortage of available staff to work at our Gateshead site.”

When I left School in 1989 Carlisle had 5 factories and you were pretty much guaranteed to find a Job one of them and they all paid good money.

We have 3 left, Pirelli's still pay good money but the two the other Factories Carrs Biscuits and Cavaghan&Gray pay a little bit more than minimum wage so they are choc full of foreign labour.

It is pretty much pointless for the natives to take these jobs.

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

LSE ETFS.  IBTL, GOV, GILS and UTIP.  A recent ladder into EMHG as well.

Do yuo think those are near the bottom ?

 

 

[Bus Stop Boxer]

Last chunk covers gold.

[Funn3r]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Turkey are ahead of the game,inflation will slow there,their bonds have been rallying for a while.

I went there a few months back expecting a backward desperate economy and could not have been more surprised. How do I invest? Already tried Turkcell in my HL ISA and got knocked back as I may have said. 

[M S E Refugee]

6 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

I went there a few months back expecting a backward desperate economy and could not have been more surprised. How do I invest? Already tried Turkcell in my HL ISA and got knocked back as I may have said. 

https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251879/ishares-msci-turkey-ucits-etf

[onlyme]

33 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

400 job losses.Its just been on our local TV news.The below comment is the interesting one.They couldnt get workers.There will be tens of thousands on bennies in the catchment area.They interviewed several workers,every one was Eastern European.Obvious company couldnt get any locals to work for minimum wage,they prefer bennies.This is an example of systemic collapse.Its not that there arent workers,its that they cant compete with bennies.

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/gateshead-orchard-factory-close-jobs-24788390

 

"There has also been a shortage of available staff to work at our Gateshead site.”

i can't think of a more disincentivising environment than one where a wage won't put a roof over your head - either purchased or rented, even shared in some cases.  Wage and living cost arbitrage obviously still ongoing - EE's can slum it for a few years and set themselves up in their homeland, no such getout for the locals, an opportunity for one group, a curse for another. Yes the benefits should not be that high, but they are largely that high thanks to the same bubble in capital and rental values, the rent due passing directly from taxpayer to landlord. 

I'm not trying to make excuses for a large proportion that may be lazy sods but this whole system has sucked for 20 years, the growth of BTL and mass economic migration have gone hand in hand in a positive feedback mechanism that has handed the taxpayer the bill for corporates to have the bargaining power to bring in such things as zero hour contracts and wages in real terms that have dwindled or outright collapsed compared to say the price / cost of housing.

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

One thing I know for certain JP Morgan will somehow by magic make money from whatever happens.

exactly that's the plan......and apologies think I was a bit hyper earlier after too much Kouign Amann....

PS in other news WTI rallied heavily off 85 so if you didn't make a fortune off that, take more notes next time comrades 

 

[onlyme]

4 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This is the definitive example of giving zero fucks.

Reckon the Turks are quite used to high inflation, certainly when travelling there a few times 30 years ago on each visit you'd have to recalibrate your exchange rate from the year before. I suppose if everything goes up in roughly the same proportion, wages, cost of goods, housing, investments it makes little difference, just a nominal sum on a piece of paper. It might encourage people to invest their time and use their money rather than sitting on it  as well. What is means for pension and alike who knows, maybe in such a long run inflationary environment your pension is invested in somewhat different assets to cope with the likelihood of similar for most of your life.

[Calcutta]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

400 job losses.Its just been on our local TV news.The below comment is the interesting one.They couldnt get workers.There will be tens of thousands on bennies in the catchment area.They interviewed several workers,every one was Eastern European.Obvious company couldnt get any locals to work for minimum wage,they prefer bennies.This is an example of systemic collapse.Its not that there arent workers,its that they cant compete with bennies.

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/gateshead-orchard-factory-close-jobs-24788390

 

"There has also been a shortage of available staff to work at our Gateshead site.”

Moving the work to a mothballed factory in Corby,  where a 1bed flat is £700pm and the people who work in it will either live in HMOs or tents in the woods.  

 

[The Grey Man]

13 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Moving the work to a mothballed factory in Corby,  where a 1bed flat is £700pm and the people who work in it will either live in HMOs or tents in the woods.  

 

Saw a lad on full PIP today. Lives in S Manchester. Old house converterted to, in my parlance, bedsits. Shared bathroom. Small hob in his room. Room sounded 5m by 4m tops.

Bed by fridge. 460 notes a month. 

Landlord.  No credit checks or ID checks. Still gets the rental.

Shit hole UK.

[HousePriceMania]

8 minutes ago, The Grey Man said:

Saw a lad on full PIP today. Lives in S Manchester. Old house converterted to, in my parlance, bedsits. Shared bathroom. Small hob in his room. Room sounded 5m by 4m tops.

Bed by fridge. 460 notes a month. 

Landlord.  No credit checks or ID checks. Still gets the rental.

Shit hole UK.

Slave Colony UK