Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Plan-b]

47 minutes ago, Harley said:

I note JRS (JPM Russia Trust) is up 26% the last two weeks.

Yes it was 600/800p pre invasion now at 92p ish.

It can be bought on HL after completing a risks questionnaire.

I did well with POLY after the invasion I'm tempted with JRS.

Largish spread though, probably because it's not actively traded and it is basically gambling.

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

Working people had never in the main experienced car ownership or the delights of going somewhere abroad prior to WW2 and even the 1950s so the simple folk won't be happy.

My uncle wanted to be a vet.  War came and he was made to go down the mines in Wales and worked there until he retired.  Hard, dangerous, and he hated it.  Retired, bought a small farm, and loved his life again after 30+ years bloody hard graft.

Imagine a 17 year old now being told - down the mines for you boyo.  Stop your snivelling.

 

Never happen.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Luke Gromen makes a great point about thinking of everything in terms of energy.

 

He says the Ruble is basically a gas backed currency and he thinks it will appreciate against the dollar. 

 

 

[Noallegiance]

What am I missing about the US$?

Being in commods is being killed right now.

[Plan-b]

3 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

What am I missing about the US$?

Being in commods is being killed right now.

Unfortunately it will probably be the last horse in the western worlds glue factory

[Axeman123]

6 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

What am I missing about the US$?

Being in commods is being killed right now.

IMO it is all about the fed pivot.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, feed said:

The lend lease agreements that have been made with Ukraine.  I do wonder when it gets to the point, where they’re no longer practically  profitable, as they'll be in debt for more than 100 years anyway.  And the infrastructure rebuild contracts become the next profit point.  

Great point.  I was thinking the same.  Will it (the remaining farmland since the Russians have the other stuff) be owned by Blackrock and co?  That is, a US enclave in Europe and close enough to stuff muck around?  Maybe get those biolabs going again, etc.  Like all things, always look for the second or (certainly in this case) more derivative of what's served up to you.

[Harley]

41 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Yes it was 600/800p pre invasion now at 92p ish.

It can be bought on HL after completing a risks questionnaire.

I did well with POLY after the invasion I'm tempted with JRS.

Largish spread though, probably because it's not actively traded and it is basically gambling.

I still own 'cause I like me pain and as a hedge in case Ivor turns up at me house 'cause I can then wave it at him and we'll all be cool.  Hell, I may even ladder up babe if I can get the fill!

[CannonFodder]

Just now, Axeman123 said:

IMO it is all about the fed pivot.

I feel it is also China playing silly buggers - downplaying their economy to talk up dollar to force people off it becomes two expensive. Also places pressure to pivot at which point China does opposite.

Seen their new fire brigade? - any possible dual use of these would you say.

As they build up their fire brigade , nothing to worry about

 

 

[Big Boy]

36 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Yes it was 600/800p pre invasion now at 92p ish.

It can be bought on HL after completing a risks questionnaire.

I did well with POLY after the invasion I'm tempted with JRS.

I like a bit of risk and made a small amount from POLY too.

The questionnaire:

Have you read any educational material?

Yeah (DOSBODS).

You have completed the questionnaire and may now trade in complex products.

[Harley]

19 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

What am I missing about the US$?

Being in commods is being killed right now.

Ah, not that bad, I'm up £19.91 atm!

I was in too early but some look bullish (maybe later!).

I know I see cup and handle chart patterns everywhere () but there sure looks a few.

Feck, there goes another one....!

[nirvana]

39 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

What am I missing about the US$?

Being in commods is being killed right now.

USD doesn't need to be great when everything else is sooooo shite......it's a 2 way bet 

in other news the BBs are buying Gold at 1750....fill yer boots bro!! 

[Noallegiance]

[BWW]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Reminds me of these people...

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/hp/front/ps950-000-cloud-over-channel-4-chateau-s-mr-fawlty-6582050.html

That was Slovakia though.

Dodgy as fuck IIRC

Then they put up 11 years later...

 

https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/man-laundered-78000-two-victims-15086341

Man laundered £78,000 from two victims of wine investment scam

David Darrell, 52, admitted transferring criminal property and was ordered to pay back the cash and handed a suspended jail term

 

not sure what any of that has to do with a brit moving to hungary. out of 100s of thousands who move, these crims are rare enough to make the press.

My takeaway from your second link is that you can receive a grand a month for nothing more than transferring money through an account in your name and when up for money laundering in court be found not guilty. who knew.

[Noallegiance]

I wasn't sure where to put this so I'll stick it here:

Anyone else noticed an uptick in RAF activity? Just now had a couple of jets scream over. Last few months have had some feel-good Spitfire fly-pasts going on.

[Axeman123]

The Overton window inches over...

https://www.politico.eu/article/vice-president-of-the-german-parliament-calls-for-activation-of-nord-stream-2/

"Germany should allow the blocked Nord Stream 2 pipeline to begin pumping Russian natural gas so 'people do not have to freeze in winter and that our industry does not suffer serious damage,' Wolfgang Kubicki, vice president of the German parliament, said Friday."

[janch]

Nigel Farage has been banging on about immigration across the channel for ever but he does now have a valid point as we are on track for approx 1million this year by his reckoning (a city the size of Brum as he put it the other day).  He also changed his tune about the French being useless in stopping it and said it's down to "pull factors" ie a hotel on arrival and a benefit of around £40 per week.  No wonder no-one can get a house or GP appointment etc.  There are even ads by the traffikers for custom and it's now mainly Albanians who are not refugees but definitely economic migrants.

@spygirl has been banging on about stopping benefits for migrants for years so fair play.  Seems like Nigel has caught up with you. The government need to get on to it sharpish or we will be completely overrun and the collapse will be even quicker.  This is the first time I've heard anyone else talking about in terms of the benefits being dished out.  He's on GBNews at 7pm Mon-Thurs.

[Lightscribe]

I’m  just going to leave this here again…

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Jay said:

I hope you are exaggerating..80% ..but probably not..you talk of collapse….would collapse mean a within Britain or would you classify the break up of Britain as a collapse..I think cable was 1.7 during the last referendum.. would make sense for the scots to try again..the possibility of independent Scotland seem to be increasing imo especially as I think we get to deflation..even the welsh go there own..that for me would a collapse and not for others…that would mean England gets the bulk of the problems economically.. would have no choice but to cut benefits, pensions etc..be lucky..

Are you saying if the UK union were to break up it would be negative for England? If that is what your saying i would disagree and think the public spending figures per person (below) speak for themselves. I believe it would be a net gain for England if the region's went independent, reducing the UK population by 10 million (5m Scotland, 3m Wales, 2m NI) would alone help reduce social support costs, infrastructure costs, etc. Plus if factor in the taxes raised per person from the region's, the tax-spend ratio becomes even more stark. Not to mention that lots of central government jobs (eg DVLC) would relocate back to England.        Btw, I genuinely wanted Scotland to stay  back at the time of their first indie vote, but now I couldn't much care what they decide next time they wangle another 'once in a generation vote'!                  

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn04033/

[Inigo]

5 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I wasn't sure where to put this so I'll stick it here:

Anyone else noticed an uptick in RAF activity? Just now had a couple of jets scream over. Last few months have had some feel-good Spitfire fly-pasts going on.

I had three F-15s go low and loud over the office yesterday.  Enough to get the local Facebook group going.  Turns out they were on their way back from an airshow in Eastbourne.

[Big Boy]

8 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I wasn't sure where to put this so I'll stick it here:

Anyone else noticed an uptick in RAF activity? Just now had a couple of jets scream over. Last few months have had some feel-good Spitfire fly-pasts going on.

I'm on the flightpath east from a large "RAF" (USAF) base.  Transport aircraft activity has tailed off recently.

[Starsend]

3 minutes ago, janch said:

Nigel Farage has been banging on about immigration across the channel for ever but he does now have a valid point as we are on track for approx 1million this year by his reckoning (a city the size of Brum as he put it the other day).  He also changed his tune about the French being useless in stopping it and said it's down to "pull factors" ie a hotel on arrival and a benefit of around £40 per week.  No wonder no-one can get a house or GP appointment etc.  There are even ads by the traffikers for custom and it's now mainly Albanians who are not refugees but definitely economic migrants.

@spygirl has been banging on about stopping benefits for migrants for years so fair play.  Seems like Nigel has caught up with you. The government need to get on to it sharpish or we will be completely overrun and the collapse will be even quicker.  This is the first time I've heard anyone else talking about in terms of the benefits being dished out.  He's on GBNews at 7pm Mon-Thurs.

A million this year? That can't be right surely. That must be everything, dingy people and legal immigration.

These numbers are breath-taking. It simply has to end in chaos and pretty soon I'd say.

[Lightly Toasted]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

We rightly moan about polos but just to stress, our ever present civil service has been working to the mantra of "managed decline" for decades.

The UK's drive for EEC membership came from that mind-set so it must go back at least to the 1960s; as it turns out that "solution" eventually led to the creation of an indigenous underclass economically replaced (as noted a few posts back) by cheap EE labour.

[Errol]

30 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

The Overton window inches over...

https://www.politico.eu/article/vice-president-of-the-german-parliament-calls-for-activation-of-nord-stream-2/

"Germany should allow the blocked Nord Stream 2 pipeline to begin pumping Russian natural gas so 'people do not have to freeze in winter and that our industry does not suffer serious damage,' Wolfgang Kubicki, vice president of the German parliament, said Friday."

They would have to pay in roubles or gold etc.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

It’s all down to the 40 year disinflation cycle which will never be repeated again.

It’s wealth flowing upwards in assets, pulling up the ladder and kicking the legs of any support at the bottom for anything to sustain it. 

Trillions in QE money printing and resulting zero interest rates. People retiring at 50 on golden index linked final salary pensions. Bubble P/E ratio tech/FAANGs. Retirees owning multiple houses. UK Ltd turning a blind eye to  property being used as dodgey money laundering playground for foreign investment.

RTB being used to produce council house millionaires. Lucrative benefits that outweigh work paid from having the first child until 50-odd.

Unfettered immigration of cheap labour to cover up the fact that no one works anymore, ever cheaper outsourcing of manufacturing to ensure the same. 

Foreign influences with stakes steering direction from education to politics, filtering down to public services that take orders from above. Puppets and narratives put in place to gaslight society into line using education and media as a weapon.

Blowing up bureaucracy and non-jobs making a public sector black hole which then means cuts from elsewhere that actually matter and are vital for a functioning society.

How does it end? Look at Oxford street, hardly any different from Croydon now. This is the end result of the cycle and we haven’t even entered the ‘hard times’ yet. This is the result of the 40 year rape and pillage of what grandparents fought and died for.

https://www.ft.com/content/534dc8ab-d8f3-4f6d-bfca-e817c03655f9
 

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2F534dc8ab-d8f3-4f6d-bfca-e817c03655f9

This is all because if a 40 year disinflation cycle and ever more hands grabbing all the cookies they could from the jar. That’s why boom and bust cycles exist as greed is human nature.

Only this time money masters knew how it would end so made sure the dead horse could be flogged until the end game plan was put in place accordingly.

I agree.

And in terms of allowing human nature to trump dogma (always the best policy) I'm reminded of the saying, 'Tell me the incentives and I'll show you the outcome'... Except, this time, in relation to potential turning points and recovery - and if your right about those Money Masters driving this cycle toward its destruction - then I assume those Masters have absolutely no intention of providing a new set of incentives for the majority... Hmm what a very depressing thought.