Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[CannonFodder]

54 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Russian gas transit to EU via Nord Stream to be halted  – Gazprom https://www.rt.com/business/561178-nord-stream-pipeline-shutdown/

Gazprom are closing it for a few days for repairs.

Very safety conscious those Russians.

They just really trolling - world leading actually

Blame the disrepair on the sanctions crippling their availability of parts so EU politicians need to explain that sanctions that were meant to hurt russian gas industry worked and now no exports to EU.

Hilarious. They either have to say their sanctions useless and russia putting it on or sanctions scored an own goal.

[Axeman123]

3 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

They just really trolling - world leading actually

My favourite Putin-ism concerns the return of the freshly serviced gas turbine. He says he cannot accept it, for fear that doing so would break sanctions and make it impossible for him to get the other four serviced in due course! His concern is that this would prevent him fulfilling his contract to supply gas to the EU!

Its the way he tells 'em!

[Lightly Toasted]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Are you saying if the UK union were to break up it would be negative for England? If that is what your saying i would disagree and think the public spending figures per person (below) speak for themselves. I believe it would be a net gain for England if the region's went independent, reducing the UK population by 10 million (5m Scotland, 3m Wales, 2m NI) would alone help reduce social support costs, infrastructure costs, etc. Plus if factor in the taxes raised per person from the region's, the tax-spend ratio becomes even more stark. Not to mention that lots of central government jobs (eg DVLC) would relocate back to England.        Btw, I genuinely wanted Scotland to stay  back at the time of their first indie vote, but now I couldn't much care what they decide next time they wangle another 'once in a generation vote'!                  

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn04033/

All well and good, but do you want failed states on your northern and western borders? 

 

[Funn3r]

8 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

They could have ended the Covid nonsense swiftly if they wanted and we are now seeing the same thing with this climate change bullshit.

We are governed by psychopaths. 

Yes. The endless stupid decisions are not because they're stupid. They are not stupid and everything is deliberate. 

I suspect they thought they could force the country and us to our knees and because globally everywhere else was in the same boat we would have no choice but to accept whatever solution they proposed. This has not worked out for them with the unplanned resistance from Russia and BRICS and so on. Unfortunately they have not realised this yet and they think the plan is on schedule. It isn't, and they will eventually be lamp-posted, just worried we may get sucked down along with them. 

[M S E Refugee]

Russia’s energy export revenues forecast to soar https://www.rt.com/business/561180-russia-energy-export-revenues-rise/

The Germans seem impressed by the Russians resilience.

"Overall, the German Economy Ministry forecast cited by Reuters suggested that the Russian economy is coping well with the sanctions regime and will contract by less than expected."

I would expect the Russians to make it through the Winter with ease, I doubt the Germans will.

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, Lightly Toasted said:

Thanks, I'd not read that one before: a powerful expression of an idea though not one of his best poetically, IMO.

A comment from a page about the poem:

... the stranger within my gates is a white socialist who holds the gate open for others to take my home while other white socialists hold me down so I cannot shut the gate. Those entering are not the enemy, the stranger. They are doing what normal people should do. The enemy, the stranger, are those members of my own stock who make war on their own.

We are heading for culture war not a race war. There will be significant overlap but I think it's culture/values that will define "sides", not Kipling's "stock".

 

I think it's all of it. 

 

Mass immigration, wokeism, multiculturalism, these are all things that can only be indulged by a decadent society on borrowed funds and time.

 

If anyone thinks Somalis and Pakistanis in the Midlands and london are going to pull together in blitz spirit when the financial shit hits the fan, then I have magic beans to sell.

 

Everything Kipling wrote was a warning. Gods Of The Copybook Headings could have been written about 2022:

 

But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy, 
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "If you don't work you die."  

Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more. 

[Bus Stop Boxer]

2 hours ago, Sue Lowe said:

Love Dom but have been a little concerned why he was at a garden party with a very establishment crowd the other week . Hopefully just gathering material for his next song.

I think his old man used to be a bit of a gadabout in those circles. Maybe i remember wrong.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Partner has just had the local government pay offer.£1900 across all grades and an extra holiday.So around 8% for lower paid.Manager will get the same increase.Interesting that,obvious they know its the lower grades where they cant or hold staff now and that unlikely any managers etc will leave.

Doing some of the easier percentages, below. Plus some speculation.

£19k = 10%. That is good but they'll need it. Private sector doing similar at that level of wage.

£25k = 7.6%. This might be the sort of wage that bin men are on. Could be other better paid opportunities coming up for people in this bracket.

£38k = 5%. A good wage. Very good in Durham. Few local government workers on that money would move on even if they got nothing.

£50k = 3.8%. People on this money will think they're important. They're going to get taxed at 40% on all the increase and will be pissed off. Might look for another job but unlikely to find anything in the private sector. Maybe some of the older ones will retire early. Even at this level it is more than a lot in the private sector will be getting.

Will the top bosses be making do with £1,900 or will they have a separate deal?

We have said that wage differentials will decrease and this is a clear sign of it. Still far too much of a raise at the higher levels.

[Stuey]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

Russia’s energy export revenues forecast to soar https://www.rt.com/business/561180-russia-energy-export-revenues-rise/

The Germans seem impressed by the Russians resilience.

"Overall, the German Economy Ministry forecast cited by Reuters suggested that the Russian economy is coping well with the sanctions regime and will contract by less than expected."

I would expect the Russians to make it through the Winter with ease, I doubt the Germans will.

Selling half as much, at around six times the price...

[Chewing Grass]

4 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Selling half as much, at around six times the price...

Vorsprung Durch Technik...

[Chewing Grass]

12 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Doing some of the easier percentages, below. Plus some speculation.

£19k = 10%. That is good but they'll need it. Private sector doing similar at that level of wage.

£25k = 7.6%. This might be the sort of wage that bin men are on. Could be other better paid opportunities coming up for people in this bracket.

£38k = 5%. A good wage. Very good in Durham. Few local government workers on that money would move on even if they got nothing.

£50k = 3.8%. People on this money will think they're important. They're going to get taxed at 40% on all the increase and will be pissed off. Might look for another job but unlikely to find anything in the private sector. Maybe some of the older ones will retire early. Even at this level it is more than a lot in the private sector will be getting.

Will the top bosses be making do with £1,900 or will they have a separate deal?

We have said that wage differentials will decrease and this is a clear sign of it. Still far too much of a raise at the higher levels.

Union chap at work was pissing himself at the Industrial staff refusing promotions to management as it is a pay cut, they would be expected to do unpaid overtime and the government steals an extra 20%.

Staying on 'the tools' means overtime, shift pay, disturbance and hot work allowance.

Its the Government, HMRC and large monopoly employers who have primarily fucked this country.

[feed]

8 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Union chap at work was pissing himself at the Industrial staff refusing promotions to management as it is a pay cut, they would be expected to do unpaid overtime and the government steals an extra 20%.

Staying on 'the tools' means overtime, shift pay, disturbance and hot work allowance.

Its the Government, HMRC and large monopoly employers who have primarily fucked this country.

Been like that at our place for a decade.  I've been refusing to apply for one since 2016.  People only take promotions if they think they'll get another one after that or as a stepping stone to something outside the company.

Expect it'll get worse as hourly and general salary grades pay is union negotiated, management isn't .    

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Russian gas transit to EU via Nord Stream to be halted  – Gazprom https://www.rt.com/business/561178-nord-stream-pipeline-shutdown/

Gazprom are closing it for a few days for repairs.

Very safety conscious those Russians.

MSE,you've been following the Ukraine thing closely.From what I'm seeing in the media-ie less hero worship Zelensky,less moeny for arms,less arms,,less MSM coverage-looks like the germans are buttering up for a surrender soon as per the telegraph article posted earlier.

Cost of living crisis,plus Germany being needed to support the Euro/EU means they need german industry back on track asap to get the bills paid and to keep the Italians and greeks in the eurozone.

Is it jsut me,or has the mood music changed-also putting it out there for the hive mind.

If it is the case then european industrials like Thyssenkrupp could be a leveraged play on it?BASF are worth a nudge at these levels if we get a peace deal,surely?

[sancho panza]

Talking of mood music

Interesting to see them using income deciles for comparison.......a point often made down in htis here basement........nice to see it.

Anecdotally,I was talking to a friend last night close to the motor trade who confirmed the heads up @ThoughtCriminal gave us ref things being very quiet.Lot of people putting of purchases,keeping what they got

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/19/record-breaking-gloom-grips-britain-ahead-nightmare-winter/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-onward-journey

Record-breaking gloom grips Britain ahead of 'nightmare' winter

Consumer confidence slumps to lowest ever level as businesses and households brace for further surge in prices

A record-breaking economic gloom is gripping Britain as households brace for a “nightmare” winter of soaring costs.

Consumer confidence has plummeted to its lowest ever level as the Bank of England increases interest rates to counter rocketing inflation, according to a closely watched survey from the data company GfK.

Meanwhile, separate data showed that a host of industries are in contraction in a sign the country is teetering on the brink of recession.

GfK blamed acute concerns over the cost of living for a drop in its confidence index to -44, the lowest it has been since launching in 1974.

The outlook darkened on every one of GfK's measures, with Britons feeling increasingly pessimistic about their own finances and the general economy both at present and over the next year.

The bleak outlook is unlikely to be enough to prevent the Bank of England from a spate of further interest rate rises to control inflation, which reached a new 40-year high of 10.1pc in July.

At -60, the sub-gauge for how Britons see the economy performing a year from now was also a record low.

Mortgage holders are facing painful cost increases as the Bank of England rapidly raises interest rates to slow demand and try to ease the rate of inflation.

Prices are expected to surge even further in the coming months as a significant increase in the Ofgem energy price cap kicks in from October. Analysts say the cap could rise by 82pc or more amid elevated natural gas prices.

 

Nine of out 14 major business sectors saw their output contract during July, according to the Lloyds Bank UK Sector Tracker – the most in 18 months.

Small companies are giving up hope, with the majority expecting zero or negative growth in the coming year.

 

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

Or they just want less of us so rammed the system into a wall at 100mph?

Unless their Big Brain thinking really did only come up with the genius plan of "Less is better" 

No of course not 

 

[M S E Refugee]

8 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

MSE,you've been following the Ukraine thing closely.From what I'm seeing in the media-ie less hero worship Zelensky,less moeny for arms,less arms,,less MSM coverage-looks like the germans are buttering up for a surrender soon as per the telegraph article posted earlier.

Cost of living crisis,plus Germany being needed to support the Euro/EU means they need german industry back on track asap to get the bills paid and to keep the Italians and greeks in the eurozone.

Is it jsut me,or has the mood music changed-also putting it out there for the hive mind.

If it is the case then european industrials like Thyssenkrupp could be a leveraged play on it?BASF are worth a nudge at these levels if we get a peace deal,surely?

I think the Germans arrogance and pig-headedness will be their downfall and the Greens in the German Government seem very committed to their aim of destroying German Industry.

Also there can be no peace unless the Americans give their blessing so I'm not sure that the Germans would stand up to the Americans.

[Starsend]

Occidental up 10% today as Buffet is given the go ahead to buy up to 50% of the company,

Juicy, one of my biggest holdings.

[onlyme]

8 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I think the Germans arrogance and pig-headedness will be their downfall and the Greens in the German Government seem very committed to their aim of destroying German Industry.

Also there can be no peace unless the Americans give their blessing so I'm not sure that the Germans would stand up to the Americans.

Years of getting their own way with all the countries in the EU.

[ONC]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

MSE,you've been following the Ukraine thing closely.From what I'm seeing in the media-ie less hero worship Zelensky,less moeny for arms,less arms,,less MSM coverage-looks like the germans are buttering up for a surrender soon as per the telegraph article posted earlier.

Cost of living crisis,plus Germany being needed to support the Euro/EU means they need german industry back on track asap to get the bills paid and to keep the Italians and greeks in the eurozone.

Is it jsut me,or has the mood music changed-also putting it out there for the hive mind.

If it is the case then european industrials like Thyssenkrupp could be a leveraged play on it?BASF are worth a nudge at these levels if we get a peace deal,surely?

I think this is real @sancho panza, I notice that Polymetal has been moving up recently, just as gold generally is moving down. See chart of polymetal vs GDX below diverging, 

 

 

 

[Axeman123]

24 minutes ago, ONC said:

I notice that Polymetal has been moving up recently, just as gold generally is moving down. See chart of polymetal vs GDX below diverging,

I have had my eye on similar. As a counterpoint though, Poly is basically flat since the big drop. Getting above ~340 would be the start of a move IMO.

[Axeman123]

16 minutes ago, Rollseyes said:

You would think Turkey would be cheap with their currency on the floor, but their hotel sector in Istanbul isn't. 

Might that not just be Russian's having fewer destinations to choose from, and filling the hotels?

Lots of Russian Superyachts in Turkey now I think, so plenty of rooms needed for associated camp-followers and sex-workers too.

[Ash4781b]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Talking of mood music

Interesting to see them using income deciles for comparison.......a point often made down in htis here basement........nice to see it.

Anecdotally,I was talking to a friend last night close to the motor trade who confirmed the heads up @ThoughtCriminal gave us ref things being very quiet.Lot of people putting of purchases,keeping what they got

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/19/record-breaking-gloom-grips-britain-ahead-nightmare-winter/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-onward-journey

Record-breaking gloom grips Britain ahead of 'nightmare' winter

Consumer confidence slumps to lowest ever level as businesses and households brace for further surge in prices

A record-breaking economic gloom is gripping Britain as households brace for a “nightmare” winter of soaring costs.

Consumer confidence has plummeted to its lowest ever level as the Bank of England increases interest rates to counter rocketing inflation, according to a closely watched survey from the data company GfK.

Meanwhile, separate data showed that a host of industries are in contraction in a sign the country is teetering on the brink of recession.

GfK blamed acute concerns over the cost of living for a drop in its confidence index to -44, the lowest it has been since launching in 1974.

The outlook darkened on every one of GfK's measures, with Britons feeling increasingly pessimistic about their own finances and the general economy both at present and over the next year.

The bleak outlook is unlikely to be enough to prevent the Bank of England from a spate of further interest rate rises to control inflation, which reached a new 40-year high of 10.1pc in July.

At -60, the sub-gauge for how Britons see the economy performing a year from now was also a record low.

Mortgage holders are facing painful cost increases as the Bank of England rapidly raises interest rates to slow demand and try to ease the rate of inflation.

Prices are expected to surge even further in the coming months as a significant increase in the Ofgem energy price cap kicks in from October. Analysts say the cap could rise by 82pc or more amid elevated natural gas prices.

 

Nine of out 14 major business sectors saw their output contract during July, according to the Lloyds Bank UK Sector Tracker – the most in 18 months.

Small companies are giving up hope, with the majority expecting zero or negative growth in the coming year.

 

Dreadful reading there. And getting worse. £5k a year energy bills aren’t great for confidence. House prices still rising and if they start falling that reading will go to new records

[CannonFodder]

regards poly and jrs - some are viewing risk of more western sanctions as low imho. West also seems to have stopped narrative of siezing russian assets.

I dont see why russia would end the war before winter to be honest - thats their best fun and games window.

[sarahbell]

On 18/08/2022 at 12:56, Barnsey said:

Wouldn't be surprised about Morrisons going under given it's more expensive than not only Aldi and Lidl, but also Tesco and Sainsburys. Most of their supermarkets feel dingy as fook.

They don't need the big supermarkets anymore. Warehouse does home delivery 

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, ONC said:

I think this is real @sancho panza, I notice that Polymetal has been moving up recently, just as gold generally is moving down. See chart of polymetal vs GDX below diverging, 

 

 

 

You msut be psychic.I was literally having that conversation with my Mum this afternoon.I follow my watchlists all day every day when I'm not at wrok in between running around after the kids and doing my research.

I was saying to her today that Poly had been steadily building little up moves the last week sometimes against the run of play.Hence I asked her to have a sift in the MSM for stuff about a Russia/Ukraine peace deal.She was the one who sent me the links I posted earlier.I think he points @M S E Refugee rasied earlier are probably more in line with where we are than the 'dirty deal' getting done.

Having said that,I picked up on Poly not moving with the market but I didn't think to run a comparison with GDX.Good spot.

We'll watch here.Could be a real tell.

 

1 hour ago, Ash4781b said:

Dreadful reading there. And getting worse. £5k a year energy bills aren’t great for confidence. House prices still rising and if they start falling that reading will go to new records

Couldn't agree more Ash,I think we're possibly on the verge of some uncharted terrotiry for a lot of people under 40.

British consumer confidence-pardon the pun- is built on hosuing the same way the USA stock market moves things there.

DOn't know how they're going to refloat this time if there's a buyers strike.