Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Axeman123]

9 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

I dont see why russia would end the war before winter to be honest - thats their best fun and games window.

Mud frozen solid and leaves all fallen off the trees = absolute walkover for Russia IMO. The deliberate goading of Russia to invade in spring tells you who benefits from a long war IMO.

From my previous link about Germans calling for opening NS2:

"Kubicki, a member of Finance Minister Christian Lindner’s Free Democrats (FDP), called for activating the pipeline 'as soon as possible' to fill gas storages ahead of winter."

I think he is dreaming, Putin will want zero in storage to maximise his leverage once the cold weather comes.

[M S E Refugee]

18 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Mud frozen solid and leaves all fallen off the trees = absolute walkover for Russia IMO. The deliberate goading of Russia to invade in spring tells you who benefits from a long war IMO.

From my previous link about Germans calling for opening NS2:

"Kubicki, a member of Finance Minister Christian Lindner’s Free Democrats (FDP), called for activating the pipeline 'as soon as possible' to fill gas storages ahead of winter."

I think he is dreaming, Putin will want zero in storage to maximise his leverage once the cold weather comes.

This shows you the psychopathic zealotry of the German Greens.

 

Noting the increase in heating costs was not as problematic for people of his income bracket, Kretschmann did admit that some Germans could not make ends meet without government aid. However, he argued that the Covid-19 pandemic has shown the German government will be there for people hit the hardest by the crisis.  

This time there would be some “loss in terms of prosperity,” Kretschmann said. “We all have to adjust to that.”

[ONC]

Interesting letter in the FT today.  Recognising the past Lack of investment in oil/gas, and need for more drilling.  

https://www.ft.com/content/25451156-434a-4c36-96ef-774d99c89688

The last paragraph is great. Translated to plain English, ‘Screw the Ukraine we want a shower!”

[Errol]

34 minutes ago, ONC said:

Interesting letter in the FT today.  Recognising the past Lack of investment in oil/gas, and need for more drilling.  

https://www.ft.com/content/25451156-434a-4c36-96ef-774d99c89688

The last paragraph is great. Translated to plain English, ‘Screw the Ukraine we want a shower!”

They are still all assuming that Russia will supply them with Gas.

I think this is quite unlikely. At best, Putin will say - 'Yes, we will think about starting supply again - but our thinking will take about a year'.

[M S E Refugee]

9 minutes ago, Errol said:

They are still all assuming that Russia will supply them with Gas.

I think this is quite unlikely. At best, Putin will say - 'Yes, we will think about starting supply again - but our thinking will take about a year'.

Hopefully he will do this and it may inspire the Europeans to depose all of the WEF shills that are in charge at the moment.

[ThoughtCriminal]

"You're all going to freeze to death, but the political and media class wont."

 

Fuck me, people voted for this shit.

 

 

[Axeman123]

20 minutes ago, Errol said:

They are still all assuming that Russia will supply them with Gas.

I think this is quite unlikely. At best, Putin will say - 'Yes, we will think about starting supply again - but our thinking will take about a year'.

I think different. Gas is a double edged sword: it can cause tremendous pain when temporarily withheld from the addict, but an easy and cheap supply is the best way to keep the victim hooked. Think of it like Heroine, where dealers have to give free samles to tempt former addicts that have completed withdrawals back into hell. As a weapon withholding gas is best used in short bursts. If I was Putin I would sell them as much gas as they could immediately burn, once NS2 was online, but not one BTU for storage. Even the will they/won't they about opening NS2 is about even greater supply of cheap gas as a Russian tool to crowd out alternative energy sources and entrench German addiction.

[Castlevania]

30 minutes ago, Errol said:

They are still all assuming that Russia will supply them with Gas.

I think this is quite unlikely. At best, Putin will say - 'Yes, we will think about starting supply again - but our thinking will take about a year'.

Yeah. Whilst I expect Ukraine to be thrown under the bus this Autumn, I think this winter is a right off and that’s assuming Russia are willing to play ball (they might be enjoying seeing Europe collapse too much). , even if there’s a settlement, prices will be high, probably not as high as people are fearing but even so it’ll be a grim winter for many. I don’t see gas ever returning to the prices of a few years ago.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Does anyone on here own natural gas etfs?

[Axeman123]

10 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Yeah. Whilst I expect Ukraine to be thrown under the bus this Autumn, I think this winter is a right off and that’s assuming Russia are willing to play ball (they might be enjoying seeing Europe collapse too much). , even if there’s a settlement, prices will be high, probably not as high as people are fearing but even so it’ll be a grim winter for many. I don’t see gas ever returning to the prices of a few years ago.

I expect Putin would not want a collapsing and desperate nuclear-armed neighbour.

High gas prices make aternatives like SMR fleets seem cheap, a bit like the idiom that the cure for high oil prices is high oil prices.

In terms of operant conditioning Putin has already shown that defiance = unlimited pain, now to reinforce that he needs to show that compliance = instant pleasure when gas prices go right back down. He can then train Europe like a dog, using gas as both carrot and stick. The carrot is tyically seen as a much more effective long-term training strategy, from dogs to schools and even the workplace.

[Plan-b]

If you cant buy it take it from somebody else 

https://vk.com/wall230659921_7240

 

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, ONC said:

Interesting letter in the FT today.  Recognising the past Lack of investment in oil/gas, and need for more drilling.  

https://www.ft.com/content/25451156-434a-4c36-96ef-774d99c89688

The last paragraph is great. Translated to plain English, ‘Screw the Ukraine we want a shower!”

Hopefully the Ukraine narrative is becoming clearer to many people.

For me, (NATO provocation aside) the decision to condemn Putin for the invasion, perhaps even some humanitarian support for Ukraine….is one thing. We could debate if it was misplaced but it’s fair to say it would be expected and understandable.

However the decision to impose sanctions, target oligarchs, play games with energy was totally, completely and utterly nothing to do with the invasion of Ukraine.

Germany (and the EU) needs to separate that distinction very quickly…try save face ie remove most sanctions whilst keeping up the rhetoric. They would continue to condemn Russia to placate the dumb but Russia will know is just good old political rhetoric.

If not I think there will be a day of reckoning come winter (even if Russia keep some gas flowing). At that point either the EU concedes completely or this escalates to full on US/China or West/BRICS situation that we can speculate the outcome….but where nobody really wins. Hopefully not a kinetic war…but certainly this gets real messy as the economics kick in and citizens start losing money, going hungry and getting cold. 

The more I watch China (Pelosi goading etc) the more I see how patient they are being. Too much at stake to make a rookie error and show their cards, all we are seeing is an occasional nod to Russia across the table….I think they believe the game hasn’t even really started. 

[desertorchid]

7 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

The more I watch China (Pelosi goading etc) the more I see how patient they are being. Too much at stake to make a rookie error and show their cards, all we are seeing is an occasional nod to Russia across the table….I think they believe the game hasn’t even really started. 

China are always playing the long game, and by that I mean they view themselves as navigating their way to becoming the supreme civilisation over a thousand year time frame. The "West" don't have a scooby against this with their rolling coverage and need for instant gratification/victory. 

[CannonFodder]

China declared in response that any parts sold or used in its supply chain must state 'made in china' on them if they come from taiwan.

American companies such as apple now telling Taiwanese companies to mark their chips and parts as made in china.

The escalation by west on Taiwan is going as well as the sanctions on russia.

[Lightly Toasted]

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

This shows you the psychopathic zealotry of the German Greens.

 

Noting the increase in heating costs was not as problematic for people of his income bracket, Kretschmann did admit that some Germans could not make ends meet without government aid. However, he argued that the Covid-19 pandemic has shown the German government will be there for people hit the hardest by the crisis.  

This time there would be some “loss in terms of prosperity,” Kretschmann said. “We all have to adjust to that.”

The green left wants it both ways: "loss of prosperity to save the planet" and "open borders because wir schaffen das". (1) We haven't got enough for ourselves (2) we have unlimited abundance to share.

Two positions that can only be pitched simultaneously by liars and hypocrites.

[wherebee]

20 minutes ago, desertorchid said:

China are always playing the long game, and by that I mean they view themselves as navigating their way to becoming the supreme civilisation over a thousand year time frame. The "West" don't have a scooby against this with their rolling coverage and need for instant gratification/victory. 

You say that, but they fight like rats in a sack as individuals to get money and power.  long term planning my arse.

The British Empire used to plan long term.  We have just forgotten how to.
 

[M S E Refugee]

12 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

China declared in response that any parts sold or used in its supply chain must state 'made in china' on them if they come from taiwan.

American companies such as apple now telling Taiwanese companies to mark their chips and parts as made in china.

The escalation by west on Taiwan is going as well as the sanctions on russia.

I have always believed that the Democrats are in bed with the Chinese so I wouldn't be suprised if Pelosi's trip was just misdirection by them to look as if they were being tough.

 

[Lightly Toasted]

2 hours ago, Errol said:

They are still all assuming that Russia will supply them with Gas.

I think this is quite unlikely. At best, Putin will say - 'Yes, we will think about starting supply again - but our thinking will take about a year'.

I think that if Russia felt confident that its security needs are being met, it would resume supply (and the geopolitical picture in Europe would have fundamentally changed, with Germany/EU accepting a degree of Finlandisation).

That's unlikely though, with Finland intent on deFindlandising, the Baltics already in NATO, etc.

I can't see how Russia can stop the wheels that have been set in motion (by the West) simply to meekly return to the status quo ante.

[belfastchild]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

 If I was Putin I would sell them as much gas as they could immediately burn, once NS2 was online, but not one BTU for storage.

Id sell them slighly less so they deplete their storage just in time for winter.
But Im like that!

[M S E Refugee]

Millions could be left without heat and food in winter, London mayor warns https://www.rt.com/news/561209-uk-inflation-khan-london/

Khan wants the Government to step in, as usual he offers no solutions he just wants more money.

First level thinking is really getting out of hand.

[Virgil Caine]

3 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I think different. Gas is a double edged sword: it can cause tremendous pain when temporarily withheld from the addict, but an easy and cheap supply is the best way to keep the victim hooked. Think of it like Heroine, where dealers have to give free samles to tempt former addicts that have completed withdrawals back into hell. As a weapon withholding gas is best used in short bursts. If I was Putin I would sell them as much gas as they could immediately burn, once NS2 was online, but not one BTU for storage. Even the will they/won't they about opening NS2 is about even greater supply of cheap gas as a Russian tool to crowd out alternative energy sources and entrench German addiction.

The reason natural gas became popular was because it was a cheap fossil fuel energy resource that provided more energy and produced less carbon than alternatives like coal. If prices stay high too long that first part of the equation goes out of the window. Moreover, now countries have seen it weaponised they are not going to want to be in this position again. Nuclear power and coal are already making a comeback. Coal has the added advantage that it can be used as a feedstock to produce gas itself and in fact was the main source of gas in much of Europe prior to the 1960s. All governments need to do to override the noisy Green lobby is simply to present the alternatives to their populaces in referendums if necessary. I don’t think the results would be in much doubt.  

[Virgil Caine]

18 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Millions could be left without heat and food in winter, London mayor warns https://www.rt.com/news/561209-uk-inflation-khan-london/

Khan wants the Government to step in, as usual he offers no solutions he just wants more money.

First level thinking is really getting out of hand.

In all crises the usual top level official panhandlers such as the Mayor of London and the NHS are the first to put out the begging bowl. It would be naive to expect it to be different this time. I think there is a very high probability that everyone in the U.K. will be without power at sometime this winter no matter how much money is thrown at the problem.

[JMD]

18 hours ago, Lightly Toasted said:

All well and good, but do you want failed states on your northern and western borders? 

 

I wasn't pushing for UK breakup to happen. It's the nationalist political types from Wales and Scotland that want independence referendums etc.

Yes I accept we could end up with failed states on our borders, but I was only commenting that on balance England would be economically better off. Plus I think could also make the argument that England would improve socially and politically - become a more cohesive nation, making more self-interested decisions can only be good thing, especially considering what this thread says lies ahead for us all. 

Actually I don't think Scotland will vote for its independence. But if it did, I think it would be both  hysterical - and sad - the political horse trading over sharing out our joint assets and liabilities. Canada went part way down this track in the 70s - and they had real wealth to divi up - however even they ultimately didn't persue the break up of their country.

[JMD]

18 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Mass immigration, wokeism, multiculturalism, these are all things that can only be indulged by a decadent society on borrowed funds and time.

If anyone thinks Somalis and Pakistanis in the Midlands and london are going to pull together in blitz spirit when the financial shit hits the fan, then I have magic beans to sell.

Everything Kipling wrote was a warning. Gods Of The Copybook Headings could have been written about 2022:

But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy, 
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "If you don't work you die."  

Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once morett

It is well worth reading Kipling's 'God's of the copy book headings' poem in full. Theme of losing ancient wisdoms due to pseudo-intellectual neglect, or simply by not practising such things in public for fear of being un-modern.

[dnb24]

24 minutes ago, JMD said:

It is well worth reading Kipling's 'God's of the copy book headings' poem in full. Theme of losing ancient wisdoms due to pseudo-intellectual neglect, or simply by not practising such things in public for fear of being un-modern.

The final verse sums up where we are now-

There are only four things certain since Social Progress began:---
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her mire,
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire;
And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,