Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[ThoughtCriminal]

Great post by Michael Burry.

 

Look at that debt line versus the GDP.

 

"That which cannot go on won't".

[Lightly Toasted]

5 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

£2,500 is more likely. Part of the current rapid predicted bill inflation could be to make their eventual cap seem much more generous than it is. Eg without our help your bill would be £6k not £2.5k.

They should restructure so that the standing charge is lower also. The incentive to use less energy should be substantial.

The price cap applying to every unit consumed needs to go, it inhibits demand destruction. It was intended to stop suppliers using uncompetitive default tariffs to milk the elderly etc who weren't financially on-the-ball, but by preventing the market from operating it led to the bankruptcy of many (admittedly unwise) companies forced into supplying variable-price-customers at a loss.

A better intervention would have been to insist that the default tariff was reasonable in the context of the supplier's offering (limit the spread of tariffs offered by a single firm, for example). Or just insist that the company contacts its default-tariff customers every year, advising them that they could get a better deal.

I'd sooner see a bung to every household and the cap removed. Or maybe given that we are where we are, a price cap applied to the first n units. Either way, the poor would be spared the worst effects; the rich would be incentivised to be more frugal.

[BWW]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Just reached 45 minutes and he has come back in for the first time in ages. Had to pause, seriously reconsidering turning it off.

Interesting concept just before: nat gas 8usd USA, 40usd elsewhere (or something like that and I forget the units). If you have energy intensive industrial processes, or ones with NG as feedstock (like chemical fertiliser production) you essentially have to relocate to USA to be competitive.

To me this implies on-shoring German industry. It also fits in with my theory that the sanctions really are being applied on Europe, and gives a whole new set of reasons for the Ukraine war from a USA point of view.

it was 8 and 50 and in the follow up answer he said the 50 cost will remain as the maxoaid in europe but the 8 is likely to increase.

the numbers i found most interesting were cost/btu equivslent to barrel oil

oil 100 ish now

max elec edf 2000 guessing this is max for an hour or , not max average over a week or even a day

gas in eu 250

then followed up with extra cost for refining oil due to losing access to russian refineries has gone from10 usdper barrel  to 60.

obvious thoughts onall this is ability touse different furl sourcrs reduces cost.

remember a post here froman industry insider suggesting lead time to get more n sea oil gas is ? 2 years? if paperwork nonsense is slimmed down.

other options coal extraction and convert or recommission power stations. what.s the leadtime?

generationburning oil or make gas from oil .... again lead time? anyone know?

the problem with any option is that someone has to commit to an investment  with 10?? year payback. bp and shell are only gonna do stuff if gov promise them a long term fixed price.

instead media and starmers lot just whinge on about windfall tax.hopefully both bp and shell are investing in long term plans to relocate fast should need arise.

[Lightly Toasted]

16 minutes ago, Juniper said:

I won’t argue with the overall trend but my dad’s pit was productive and did have coal reserves when it was shut in the early 90s. He thinks it will be impossible to access what was left behind now the old shaft has been filled. I don’t suppose it would still be open today so maybe it’s a moot point but I don’t accept there was no political motivation - I saw them choose to send a thousand productive men to the dole queue because foreign coal was cheaper.

I'm convinced there was a political/ideological motivation*, I just don't think it had the long-term effect that people imagine.

Allowing significant coal reserves to become permanently inaccessible was clearly short-termist thinking, I remember this being discussed in 1980s. Mines irretrievably flooding once the pumping stopped, etc.

* payback for the miners' strike of 1972 that crippled the Heath government, plus ensuring that the Tories 1974 campaign question "who governs Britain?" could never again credibly be answered with "the unions".

 

[Starsend]

15 hours ago, Boon said:

Maybe one of your wives has rumbled you?

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/4615697-dh-has-completely-changed

That's an interesting thread to read, what a bunch of thickies. They rabbit on about DH not respecting her views and how abusive this is and yet they completely disrespect his. I found some of their notions that there's no 'control' going on, amusing to say the least - there are always groups seeking to control and gain advantage from any major shifts going on in the world.

I do think it's a good example of polarisation of views on both sides - the truth almost certainly lies somewhere in the middle. Women rarely believe in conspiracy theories because they're not much interested in the world around them (mostly) other than immediate and obvious impacts on their own families lives. Men tend to think a bit more abstractly. He'd have been better off discussing nothing with her and telling her the food was because prices were rocketing which even a tard can't dispute. I have stockpiled food in my gaff, prob a good six months worth. This is primarily as an inflation hedge but also because it really doesn't take much imagination to see a scenario where the war in Ukraine gets out of hand, supply chains are completely fucked up, add seriously incompetent Governments across the Western world into the mix - and food shortages could easily be widespread. I don't need to believe in conspiracies where they're deliberately trying to starve me to death. 

I try to be somewhere in the middle with the conspiracy stuff. I remember on this forum many were convinced that all the vaccinated were going to be dead by the end of last Winter; spazzers  To me it's clear that the vaccines are not safe but they're not going to kill everybody in some dastardly plot either. Same with all the WEF stuff, they're showing the direction of travel they'd like to go in but it will likely end up something not quite as dystopian as many on here imagine - although it could be fairly shit.

Had to laugh at the constant references to DH spending joint money (translation: his wages).

[BWW]

24 minutes ago, Lightly Toasted said:

The price cap applying to every unit consumed needs to go, it inhibits demand destruction. It was intended to stop suppliers using uncompetitive default tariffs to milk the elderly etc who weren't financially on-the-ball, but by preventing the market from operating it led to the bankruptcy of many (admittedly unwise) companies forced into supplying variable-price-customers at a loss.

A better intervention would have been to insist that the default tariff was reasonable in the context of the supplier's offering (limit the spread of tariffs offered by a single firm, for example). Or just insist that the company contacts its default-tariff customers every year, advising them that they could get a better deal.

I'd sooner see a bung to every household and the cap removed. Or maybe given that we are where we are, a price cap applied to the first n units. Either way, the poor would be spared the worst effects; the rich would be incentivised to be more frugal.

interesting equivalence.in your last para.

mathematically they have same effect

pschologically the first xxx elec units at 20p rest at 70p is more likely to reduce usage / demand and can be billed exactly same way except anyone with very low usage would not get as big a bung.

BUT it would need a huge persistent media campaign to get half the pop to understand they pay for units shown on meter rather than what their dd is.

[ThoughtCriminal]

11 minutes ago, Starsend said:

That's an interesting thread to read, what a bunch of thickies. They rabbit on about DH not respecting her views and how abusive this is and yet they completely disrespect his. I found some of their notions that there's no 'control' going on, amusing to say the least - there are always groups seeking to control and gain advantage from any major shifts going on in the world.

I do think it's a good example of polarisation of views on both sides - the truth almost certainly lies somewhere in the middle. Women rarely believe in conspiracy theories because they're not much interested in the world around them (mostly) other than immediate and obvious impacts on their own families lives. Men tend to think a bit more abstractly. He'd have been better off discussing nothing with her and telling her the food was because prices were rocketing which even a tard can't dispute. I have stockpiled food in my gaff, prob a good six months worth. This is primarily as an inflation hedge but also because it really doesn't take much imagination to see a scenario where the war in Ukraine gets out of hand, supply chains are completely fucked up, add seriously incompetent Governments across the Western world into the mix - and food shortages could easily be widespread. I don't need to believe in conspiracies where they're deliberately trying to starve me to death. 

I try to be somewhere in the middle with the conspiracy stuff. I remember on this forum many were convinced that all the vaccinated were going to be dead by the end of last Winter; spazzers  To me it's clear that the vaccines are not safe but they're not going to kill everybody in some dastardly plot either. Same with all the WEF stuff, they're showing the direction of travel they'd like to go in but it will likely end up something not quite as dystopian as many on here imagine - although it could be fairly shit.

Had to laugh at the constant references to DH spending joint money (translation: his wages).

You might want to check non covid excess mortality figures, it's through the roof in all age groups.

 

Birth rates have also plunged in numerous countries.

[Starsend]

7 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

You might want to check non covid excess mortality figures, it's through the roof in all age groups.

 

Birth rates have also plunged in numerous countries.

I've seen them and I don't dispute that there's certainly something going on. But there are other factors at play as well. It's not as simple as the vaccine is killing everybody - although there's no doubt it is killing some. Not safe, is clear to me. 

[JMD]

Edward Chancellor has a new book out - it's topic is a deep dive into the whole subject of interest, interest rates, the history of interest rates, etc. This podcast is part1, part2 is subscription only, but still well worth a listen.

            https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QBV9e1FQFAk

[BWW]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

That's an interesting thread to read, what a bunch of thickies. They rabbit on about DH not respecting her views and how abusive this is and yet they completely disrespect his. I found some of their notions that there's no 'control' going on, amusing to say the least - there are always groups seeking to control and gain advantage from any major shifts going on in the world.

I do think it's a good example of polarisation of views on both sides - the truth almost certainly lies somewhere in the middle. Women rarely believe in conspiracy theories because they're not much interested in the world around them (mostly) other than immediate and obvious impacts on their own families lives. Men tend to think a bit more abstractly. He'd have been better off discussing nothing with her and telling her the food was because prices were rocketing which even a tard can't dispute. I have stockpiled food in my gaff, prob a good six months worth. This is primarily as an inflation hedge but also because it really doesn't take much imagination to see a scenario where the war in Ukraine gets out of hand, supply chains are completely fucked up, add seriously incompetent Governments across the Western world into the mix - and food shortages could easily be widespread. I don't need to believe in conspiracies where they're deliberately trying to starve me to death. 

I try to be somewhere in the middle with the conspiracy stuff. I remember on this forum many were convinced that all the vaccinated were going to be dead by the end of last Winter; spazzers  To me it's clear that the vaccines are not safe but they're not going to kill everybody in some dastardly plot either. Same with all the WEF stuff, they're showing the direction of travel they'd like to go in but it will likely end up something not quite as dystopian as many on here imagine - although it could be fairly shit.

Had to laugh at the constant references to DH spending joint money (translation: his wages).

I think OP on that thread has a valid gripe. The dh is more extreme than posters here, where's our thread that says nuclear war is coming ? Gripe is valid because if she requested he not discuss with her, he should respect that.

The scary part of the thread is the dominant opinon that the bloke has MH problems. Leading to reprogram him, lock him up. They belong in China. Includes many utter cunts who are scrounging our tax money for 'work' in their repressive occupation which is not far from totalitarianism.

This for example

"Sorry to hear this - I work in this field, it’s not at all east for friends and family.

First off, this doesn’t necessarily mean MH issues, but it’s worth checking for signs of genuine paranoia. From what you’ve described it doesn’t sound like that, but if it is then there’s more specific pathways to ahelp.

More likely from what you’ve said is that he’s fallen into a trap that literally millions have, which is partly to do with the way the internet works, partly to do with the speed of comms, partly to do with bad actors (as they’re broadly called in security policy terms) taking advantage of credulous people - sometimes it’s for profit, sometimes for profile, sometimes if it’s government it’s more complex - and partly to do with a feeling of insecurity in the world (COVID as the pandemic was bad enough, but the disinfodemic is perhaps longer lasting)

If it’s any consolation, he’s one of literally millions globally that have been shown to be more susceptible to being hoodwinked, and the sad irony is that he thinks he’s actually the one who is thinking clearly.

The bad news is that the best psychological science shows there’s no easy fix. We have some ideas, primarily from cult deprogramming, but honestly ...."

[ILikeCake]

10 minutes ago, BWW said:

I think OP on that thread has a valid gripe. The dh is more extreme than posters here, where's our thread that says nuclear war is coming ? Gripe is valid because if she requested he not discuss with her, he should respect that.

The scary part of the thread is the dominant opinon that the bloke has MH problems. Leading to reprogram him, lock him up. They belong in China. Includes many utter cunts who are scrounging our tax money for 'work' in their repressive occupation which is not far from totalitarianism.

This for example

"Sorry to hear this - I work in this field, it’s not at all east for friends and family.

First off, this doesn’t necessarily mean MH issues, but it’s worth checking for signs of genuine paranoia. From what you’ve described it doesn’t sound like that, but if it is then there’s more specific pathways to ahelp.

More likely from what you’ve said is that he’s fallen into a trap that literally millions have, which is partly to do with the way the internet works, partly to do with the speed of comms, partly to do with bad actors (as they’re broadly called in security policy terms) taking advantage of credulous people - sometimes it’s for profit, sometimes for profile, sometimes if it’s government it’s more complex - and partly to do with a feeling of insecurity in the world (COVID as the pandemic was bad enough, but the disinfodemic is perhaps longer lasting)

If it’s any consolation, he’s one of literally millions globally that have been shown to be more susceptible to being hoodwinked, and the sad irony is that he thinks he’s actually the one who is thinking clearly.

The bad news is that the best psychological science shows there’s no easy fix. We have some ideas, primarily from cult deprogramming, but honestly ...."

A lot of people are in for a big shock and a lot of pain the next few years.  I include the OP in that statement, not the husband.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Juniper said:

I won’t argue with the overall trend but my dad’s pit was productive and did have coal reserves when it was shut in the early 90s. He thinks it will be impossible to access what was left behind now the old shaft has been filled. I don’t suppose it would still be open today so maybe it’s a moot point but I don’t accept there was no political motivation - I saw them choose to send a thousand productive men to the dole queue because foreign coal was cheaper.

Here in Durham our drifts near me closed first,the coal was shallow,sometimes at the surface,but the seams could be very thin,more suited to the old pickaxe mining than to mechanized.The coal measures slowly dropped deeper and by Easington were deep.Those seams ran way out to sea and it took half a shift getting to and from the face.However there are places where they could still get huge amounts of coal.Unlikely the drifts,but even they could be profitable given energy prices.Mining moved to where huge pits were needed like in South Africa,but we really should of kept a small industry going that could ramp a bit.

[DurhamBorn]

17 minutes ago, BWW said:

I think OP on that thread has a valid gripe. The dh is more extreme than posters here, where's our thread that says nuclear war is coming ? Gripe is valid because if she requested he not discuss with her, he should respect that.

The scary part of the thread is the dominant opinon that the bloke has MH problems. Leading to reprogram him, lock him up. They belong in China. Includes many utter cunts who are scrounging our tax money for 'work' in their repressive occupation which is not far from totalitarianism.

This for example

"Sorry to hear this - I work in this field, it’s not at all east for friends and family.

First off, this doesn’t necessarily mean MH issues, but it’s worth checking for signs of genuine paranoia. From what you’ve described it doesn’t sound like that, but if it is then there’s more specific pathways to ahelp.

More likely from what you’ve said is that he’s fallen into a trap that literally millions have, which is partly to do with the way the internet works, partly to do with the speed of comms, partly to do with bad actors (as they’re broadly called in security policy terms) taking advantage of credulous people - sometimes it’s for profit, sometimes for profile, sometimes if it’s government it’s more complex - and partly to do with a feeling of insecurity in the world (COVID as the pandemic was bad enough, but the disinfodemic is perhaps longer lasting)

If it’s any consolation, he’s one of literally millions globally that have been shown to be more susceptible to being hoodwinked, and the sad irony is that he thinks he’s actually the one who is thinking clearly.

The bad news is that the best psychological science shows there’s no easy fix. We have some ideas, primarily from cult deprogramming, but honestly ...."

Incredible.Inflation alone he has saved them loads already.The problem is women arent wired up for whats here and coming,men are.Also we have created so many none jobs and bennies for these women they have no idea about wealth creation etc.They are detached from reality.

[M S E Refugee]

21 minutes ago, ILikeCake said:

A lot of people are in for a big shock and a lot of pain the next few years.  I include the OP in that statement, not the husband.

Those Women will go the way of that fearless flightless Bird from Madagascar which became extinct due to it being unable to sense danger.

 

[BWW]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Incredible.Inflation alone he has saved them loads already.The problem is women arent wired up for whats here and coming,men are.Also we have created so many none jobs and bennies for these women they have no idea about wealth creation etc.They are detached from reality.

lots of spends was on camping kit and eeerm knives. every attentive reader here at least.knows it should be crossbows.

[sleepwello'nights]

On 19/08/2022 at 12:21, marceau said:

No, not at the top anyway. I know these people.  They genuinely think of themselves as world saviours, genius machiavellians, the shepherds of human progress - they fully bought their own bullshit. Decline isn't part of their mindset at all; it's ambition, narcissism, virtue and  sanctimony.

You've missed out lining their pockets 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Beyond parody.

 

I can't tell anymore if it's incompetence or intentional.

 

 

[Noallegiance]

25 minutes ago, BWW said:

eeerm knives

What are these? Knives for scousers?

[ThoughtCriminal]

Gromen nails it, as usual.

[Lightly Toasted]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Incredible.Inflation alone he has saved them loads already.The problem is women arent wired up for whats here and coming,men are.Also we have created so many none jobs and bennies for these women they have no idea about wealth creation etc.They are detached from reality.

What's caused this is that the state has deliberately stepped into the "provider of last resort" role, displacing husbands/fathers. That predisposes her to dismiss his efforts (which are weird and inconvenient to her in the short term) because she believes that her long term comfort is secured by other means.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

It's a death cult. No other explanation.

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Incredible.Inflation alone he has saved them loads already.The problem is women arent wired up for whats here and coming,men are.Also we have created so many none jobs and bennies for these women they have no idea about wealth creation etc.They are detached from reality.

Exactly. I’m labelled as all sorts, but I know as does everyone else what both what men and women are capable of and each have there strengths. It’s always been that way since time infinitum.

Say what you want about women police officers but they are second to none for compassion in a devastating scenario for families or domestic violence and children. (don’t get me wrong there are exceptions on both sides) but the modern world tries to obscuriate that and blur the lines.

Everyone has their strengths and that should be celebrated at the end of the day when you need a heavy lump the laws of physics doesn’t change.

[Axeman123]

7 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

It's a death cult. No other explanation.

He is a Green, just in case anyone was wondering.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

Edward Chancellor has a new book out - it's topic is a deep dive into the whole subject of interest, interest rates, the history of interest rates, etc. This podcast is part1, part2 is subscription only, but still well worth a listen.

            https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QBV9e1FQFAk

Forgot to mention Chancellor in the podcast makes an interesting observation that some economists are how pretty much ignored because their work can not be easily modelled. Minsky is apparently one of those economists, and I believe is a favourite of @sancho panza?           ...I'm thinking paying attention to these otherwise forgotten economists gives those who understand their work an added 'edge'?

[Democorruptcy]

16 hours ago, JMD said:

I think/hope a energy price cap of £2000 will be set, paid for by extra taxes (perhaps involving a sinking fund paid over 20 years) and removing the green levy/vat on bills. Plus extra government benefit support for the poorest.

I find that post quite offensive. You seriously want my taxes to be used to bail out what could be multiple asset owners? People who have overstretched themselves now get my taxes to pay their energy bills, so they have enough left over to be able to pay bankers their mortgage payments. W... T.... F.... I have no problem with help being given to the really in need. Let them huddle together to keep warm in a debtor's prison.