Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[ThoughtCriminal]

"It's different this time".

[Funn3r]

20 hours ago, Calcutta said:

I pissed on the side of the BOE

I went there once to fix a server. Very weird you walk in this massive entrance and a fancy dress security guard called a "pink" escorts you to wherever. Lloyds is weird as well. BACS is more normal and they kicked me out for being scruffy - "maybe it's the computer room but this is still a bank." 

 

Cunts. 

[BWW]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Couple of comments there on lead times to new oil and gas, so worth saying again. And journos, just go ask any of your industry contacts and they'll tell you the same thing. It's really important to get out there and into thicko politician heads.

Lead time to new oil and gas projects is 5-10 years. 7 is a good rule of thumb. The odd one gets done in less than 5 years, if they are simple (the North sea isn't simple). Many run over ten years. 

This process cannot be speeded up with cutting paperwork, it's all about gathering information by drilling to meet investment metrics in a stable fiscal environment. So the UK North sea is effectively dead, thanks to the windfall tax. Managed decline.

Globally, we have about one more year to trigger another oil and gas investment cycle. Were almost at 7 years now of severe underinvestment, i.e. the average time for a new project from exploration. Which means weve run out of the last cycles projects.

There is currently no discernible uptick in exploration worldwide. It takes about three years of decent prices to convince people to invest in exploration, which kicks off the new project cycle. It's understandable, as you have a good 70% chance of losing your money. But you have to do it - no exploration, no new projects. About a year to go....

But I'm starting to think that won't happen this time. Shareholders want their money, and the skillset in the industry has been devastated. Exploration in particular takes high end teams, and they are mostly gone after 7 years of cuts and redundancy. They're not sitting on the shelf, they go stale after a year or two out anyway. As for the ones hanging on in the industry, there are few young people with new ideas and few old gits with the experience of how not to make stupid mistakes. They are mostly mid career. Even if investment suddenly starts pouring in, there aren't the people to do it anymore. Bad wells will be drilled, blowouts will happen. 

All that's going on really,globally, is managed decline of existing assets. 

If that doesn't do a sharp 180, what that means is an end to growth (as we are witnessing) and in turn the blowup of debt based monetary system, which requires constant growth (I.e. constant cheap energy). Even if we found a new superior energy source, we needed fossil fuels to transition to it. They're still there, but it'd take years to skill up again and trigger the next wave of projects. The university masters courses in petroleum geology and engineering, which were a basic qualification for industry entry (and pretty much guaranteed you a high paying job if you could get in) don't really exist anymore. Companies stopped hiring grads, and grads wanted renewable/ESG stuff anyway. Believe me, I went out and talked to them, and saw the ideology creeping in. The universities rebranded them as 'MSc in sustainable energy' or similar. Aberdeen still has theirs going in fairness, but that's the capital of managed decline now. BP didn't consider one of these graduates fully trained till they had around ten years experience. They literally had grad->early career training programmes for ten years. They produced superb professionals, eventually...

Can you see where I'm going with this lead time to new projects?

A point on UK gas for the journos to ask their contacts about: there are 30-50 small gas accumulations already discovered but undeveloped in the UK which were uncommercial but would make money now and help get us over this hump. But no one wants to commit to them. Get the govt to underwrite the sales price at half of current prices, say 125p a therm and they will get developed in 2-5years. The lead time is shorter as we already know where the are and they already have wells in them (information).

Edit:

Equinor is the exception wrt grad hiring, and exploration in Norway, mainly because you could claim back a cash credit for most of a failed exploration well. So they drilled lots. Problem is that the process is not very rigorous if you know the well is only going to cost you $5m instead of $30m, and so they are not very good at it outside Norway.

Thanks for that. Sober assessment.

Probably implies shell and less so bp which are now bumping along close to ath are reliant on green bollox for future growth (ie not gonna be) so maybe worth keeping for divis for a year or two but at some point in the next few years will start a terminal decline.

i assumed they would continue rising to ath plus inflation but maybe not and the divis do not match inflation.

[CannonFodder]

Why no one has ever reformed the system we have

 

 

[M S E Refugee]

I think that Mumsnutter thread could be one to keep an eye on.

 

DPMismyfavouritecolour · Today 19:27

He's in deep, I'd get out as soon as possible, you cannot save him, he doesn't believe he needs it, he thinks he's saving everyone else. It is a cult and he's lost to it, I'm sorry. You see the ones on here agreeing with his delusions? They are lost too, so take no notice of the gaslighting tripe they come out with. I had a friend like this, cut her out when she went full on with the 'covid is a hoax' and viruses don't exist at the beginning of the pandemic. I feel for her unvaccinated kids, especially the boy because unless he gets immunised against mumps before puberty, he could be made infertile by catching it after puberty. So her 'right' to be delusional trumps their rights to not be made vulnerable to all the easily vaccinated diseases and not be made infertile in his case. Fuck em, I cannot stand conspiracy theorists, they actively choose this bullshit and it's a big problem. I'm so sorry you have to deal with this, best of luck.

[ILikeCake]

1 hour ago, BWW said:

Thanks for that. Sober assessment.

Probably implies shell and less so bp which are now bumping along close to ath are reliant on green bollox for future growth (ie not gonna be) so maybe worth keeping for divis for a year or two but at some point in the next few years will start a terminal decline.

i assumed they would continue rising to ath plus inflation but maybe not and the divis do not match inflation.

Hard to know what's actually going on for certain.  I caught up with a mate who I hadn't seen for a while last weekend.  He's a pipeline engineer/designer and currently contracting for Total.  He said that they like to portray the green/renewable image but in reality they are all about oil.

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I think that Mumsnutter thread could be one to keep an eye on.

 

DPMismyfavouritecolour · Today 19:27

He's in deep, I'd get out as soon as possible, you cannot save him, he doesn't believe he needs it, he thinks he's saving everyone else. It is a cult and he's lost to it, I'm sorry. You see the ones on here agreeing with his delusions? They are lost too, so take no notice of the gaslighting tripe they come out with. I had a friend like this, cut her out when she went full on with the 'covid is a hoax' and viruses don't exist at the beginning of the pandemic. I feel for her unvaccinated kids, especially the boy because unless he gets immunised against mumps before puberty, he could be made infertile by catching it after puberty. So her 'right' to be delusional trumps their rights to not be made vulnerable to all the easily vaccinated diseases and not be made infertile in his case. Fuck em, I cannot stand conspiracy theorists, they actively choose this bullshit and it's a big problem. I'm so sorry you have to deal with this, best of luck.

Its ironic,but the mental cases are the ones who dont see the problems.Imagine that they simply think the world will stay exactly the same.Makes you wonder if these are bennie mothers etc,or loaded because they arent normal.Energy has trebled and more,the guy tried to simply prepare.Lots of these people are in for a huge shock.Wonder if the above has a few BTL and/or a big mortgage.

[Loki]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

Its ironic,but the mental cases are the ones who dont see the problems.Imagine that they simply think the world will stay exactly the same.Makes you wonder if these are bennie mothers etc,or loaded because they arent normal.Energy has trebled and more,the guy tried to simply prepare.Lots of these people are in for a huge shock.Wonder if the above has a few BTL and/or a big mortgage.

Could just be 77th

[ThoughtCriminal]

10 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I think that Mumsnutter thread could be one to keep an eye on.

 

DPMismyfavouritecolour · Today 19:27

He's in deep, I'd get out as soon as possible, you cannot save him, he doesn't believe he needs it, he thinks he's saving everyone else. It is a cult and he's lost to it, I'm sorry. You see the ones on here agreeing with his delusions? They are lost too, so take no notice of the gaslighting tripe they come out with. I had a friend like this, cut her out when she went full on with the 'covid is a hoax' and viruses don't exist at the beginning of the pandemic. I feel for her unvaccinated kids, especially the boy because unless he gets immunised against mumps before puberty, he could be made infertile by catching it after puberty. So her 'right' to be delusional trumps their rights to not be made vulnerable to all the easily vaccinated diseases and not be made infertile in his case. Fuck em, I cannot stand conspiracy theorists, they actively choose this bullshit and it's a big problem. I'm so sorry you have to deal with this, best of luck.

I'd happily kick stupid bitches like this around a room until I couldn't feel my legs.

 

Me with a mumsnutter when she starts slagging her husband off for being a prepper. (Don't watch if you're of a nervous disposition).

 

 

[leonardratso]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its ironic,but the mental cases are the ones who dont see the problems.Imagine that they simply think the world will stay exactly the same.Makes you wonder if these are bennie mothers etc,or loaded because they arent normal.Energy has trebled and more,the guy tried to simply prepare.Lots of these people are in for a huge shock.Wonder if the above has a few BTL and/or a big mortgage.

lets hope , hahaha. A good old kick in the teeth will set them straight.

[M S E Refugee]

This is the worst one so far

Notgoingbacktofuture · Today 10:39

EthicalNonMahogany · Today 09:08

Occam's razor disproves the idea of a giant great reset that's been planned in secret and is designed to harm individuals.

The WEF is not a shadowy sinister organisation. It's describing the problems with current capitalism- which we can all see, right? - inequity, oil dependency, and the paticular way our overconsumption of resources and economic growth is now bumping against the boundaries of the ecosystems of the planet. They are taking responsibility as a membership organisation of the people who DO have power in the world to transparently discuss how we could run things differently. What's the problem with that? Why does anyone think it's being done secretly? What, in fact, should they do, if not that? There's no future for conventional economics.

Why shouldn't we own nothing and be happy? Better than owning a load of shite and being unhappy. I would invite conspiracy theorists to engage with the problems of the world and proffer solutions rather than hide from the problems by whining that the grown ups are corrupt.

Really well put! @EthicalNonMahogany

Add

[Chewing Grass]

7 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

This is the worst one so far

Notgoingbacktofuture · Today 10:39

EthicalNonMahogany · Today 09:08

Occam's razor disproves the idea of a giant great reset that's been planned in secret and is designed to harm individuals.

The WEF is not a shadowy sinister organisation. It's describing the problems with current capitalism- which we can all see, right? - inequity, oil dependency, and the paticular way our overconsumption of resources and economic growth is now bumping against the boundaries of the ecosystems of the planet. They are taking responsibility as a membership organisation of the people who DO have power in the world to transparently discuss how we could run things differently. What's the problem with that? Why does anyone think it's being done secretly? What, in fact, should they do, if not that? There's no future for conventional economics.

Why shouldn't we own nothing and be happy? Better than owning a load of shite and being unhappy. I would invite conspiracy theorists to engage with the problems of the world and proffer solutions rather than hide from the problems by whining that the grown ups are corrupt.

Really well put! @EthicalNonMahogany

Add

Misses out that all the wealth is being siphoned off to the top of the pyramid in a rather undemocratic and globalist totalitarian fashion.

[leonardratso]

just a bunch of annoying cunts as far as i can see, ill bet that guy/gal wouldnt be very happy owning nothing, hypocrites of the highest delusional champagne socialist 'immigrants welcome' virtue signalling arsehole order. I hope they feel it really hard.

probably a teacher or NHS worker.

 

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

This is the worst one so far

Notgoingbacktofuture · Today 10:39

EthicalNonMahogany · Today 09:08

Occam's razor disproves the idea of a giant great reset that's been planned in secret and is designed to harm individuals.

The WEF is not a shadowy sinister organisation. It's describing the problems with current capitalism- which we can all see, right? - inequity, oil dependency, and the paticular way our overconsumption of resources and economic growth is now bumping against the boundaries of the ecosystems of the planet. They are taking responsibility as a membership organisation of the people who DO have power in the world to transparently discuss how we could run things differently. What's the problem with that? Why does anyone think it's being done secretly? What, in fact, should they do, if not that? There's no future for conventional economics.

Why shouldn't we own nothing and be happy? Better than owning a load of shite and being unhappy. I would invite conspiracy theorists to engage with the problems of the world and proffer solutions rather than hide from the problems by whining that the grown ups are corrupt.

Really well put! @EthicalNonMahogany

Add

Now That's What I Call Midwit 

[Starsend]

15 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I'd happily kick stupid bitches like this around a room until I couldn't feel my legs.

 

Me with a mumsnutter when she starts slagging her husband off for being a prepper. (Don't watch if you're of a nervous disposition).

 

 

Haha shit, that'll certainly learn 'em

[M S E Refugee]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

Now That's What I Call Midwit 

Very strange logic that she thinks the Husband is controlling and making all of the decisions and yet this fool is quite happy to outsource her mind,body and wealth to Klaus.

[Starsend]

14 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

This is the worst one so far

Notgoingbacktofuture · Today 10:39

EthicalNonMahogany · Today 09:08

Occam's razor disproves the idea of a giant great reset that's been planned in secret and is designed to harm individuals.

The WEF is not a shadowy sinister organisation. It's describing the problems with current capitalism- which we can all see, right? - inequity, oil dependency, and the paticular way our overconsumption of resources and economic growth is now bumping against the boundaries of the ecosystems of the planet. They are taking responsibility as a membership organisation of the people who DO have power in the world to transparently discuss how we could run things differently. What's the problem with that? Why does anyone think it's being done secretly? What, in fact, should they do, if not that? There's no future for conventional economics.

Why shouldn't we own nothing and be happy? Better than owning a load of shite and being unhappy. I would invite conspiracy theorists to engage with the problems of the world and proffer solutions rather than hide from the problems by whining that the grown ups are corrupt.

Really well put! @EthicalNonMahogany

Add

"Why shouldn't we own nothing and be happy? Better than owning a load of shite and being unhappy."

That bit made me laugh. I'm sure you all thought the same as I did, how about I own something and am happy. Christ, reminds me of an ex of mine, that kind of gibberish, you just can't reason with them.

[Rare Bear]

9 hours ago, Virgil Caine said:

I am sure that graph will be a great comfort when the power goes off. 

The problem in the 1970s was that Britain was overdependent on coal for electrical power generation. Now it is overdependent on gas. The major failure is that the U.K. has not opened any nuclear power stations since 1995. Our power generation mix is simply wrong and we have essentially learnt nothing from the 1970s.
 

Bit like a comment a thinking priest said of the population falling away from the church. Careful you don't replace one tyranny with another.

[ThoughtCriminal]

23 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

This is the worst one so far

Notgoingbacktofuture · Today 10:39

EthicalNonMahogany · Today 09:08

Occam's razor disproves the idea of a giant great reset that's been planned in secret and is designed to harm individuals.

The WEF is not a shadowy sinister organisation. It's describing the problems with current capitalism- which we can all see, right? - inequity, oil dependency, and the paticular way our overconsumption of resources and economic growth is now bumping against the boundaries of the ecosystems of the planet. They are taking responsibility as a membership organisation of the people who DO have power in the world to transparently discuss how we could run things differently. What's the problem with that? Why does anyone think it's being done secretly? What, in fact, should they do, if not that? There's no future for conventional economics.

Why shouldn't we own nothing and be happy? Better than owning a load of shite and being unhappy. I would invite conspiracy theorists to engage with the problems of the world and proffer solutions rather than hide from the problems by whining that the grown ups are corrupt.

Really well put! @EthicalNonMahogany

Add

This has to be one of you fuckers on there winding me up! 😂

[ILikeCake]

39 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its ironic,but the mental cases are the ones who dont see the problems.Imagine that they simply think the world will stay exactly the same.Makes you wonder if these are bennie mothers etc,or loaded because they arent normal.Energy has trebled and more,the guy tried to simply prepare.Lots of these people are in for a huge shock.Wonder if the above has a few BTL and/or a big mortgage.

Big mortgage and Audi or Range Rover on hire guaranteed.

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, ILikeCake said:

Big mortgage and Audi or Range Rover on hire guaranteed.

I suppose they already own nothing and be happy.

[Starsend]

21 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I suppose they already own nothing and be happy.

I've had way too many pints of Hobgoblin, I no longer own them cos I drank them, but I am way happy.

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Starsend said:

I've had way too many pints of Hobgoblin, I no longer own them cos I drank them, but I am way happy.

Of course you own it, except now it's Fosters

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

I think that Mumsnutter thread could be one to keep an eye on.

DPMismyfavouritecolour · Today 19:27

He's in deep, I'd get out as soon as possible, you cannot save him, he doesn't believe he needs it, he thinks he's saving everyone else. It is a cult and he's lost to it, I'm sorry. You see the ones on here agreeing with his delusions? They are lost too, so take no notice of the gaslighting tripe they come out with. I had a friend like this, cut her out when she went full on with the 'covid is a hoax' and viruses don't exist at the beginning of the pandemic. I feel for her unvaccinated kids, especially the boy because unless he gets immunised against mumps before puberty, he could be made infertile by catching it after puberty. So her 'right' to be delusional trumps their rights to not be made vulnerable to all the easily vaccinated diseases and not be made infertile in his case. Fuck em, I cannot stand conspiracy theorists, they actively choose this bullshit and it's a big problem. I'm so sorry you have to deal with this, best of luck.

Thx. Good thread…if a little frustrating.

Some reflection on our views, would be whilst it might be great to have an academic argument with a friend/neighbour or family member for self gratification….it’s more important to be cleverer than that. 

It’s about winning real battles, not debates and not burning bridges. And i don’t mean it’s all about being liked or not wanting to offend but all bridges are useful even if they lead to a fuckwit….you may need them as a stepping stone if waters get deep. That’s how the rich get richer and more powerful, by stepping on others. 

So whilst it’s good to have a few like minded associates it’s not worth trying to debate how the US goaded Putin into invading Ukraine, or debating macros when down the pub to the man at the bar. Deaf ears. (Others on here may have different experiences of course) 

A spouse obviously is a different and trickier matter. I guess the DH in the original mumsnet post needed to ‘manage’ that relationship differently….she will never be on board, no point banging your head on a brick wall. It’s then a question of being more understated (ie still buy that gold but not ‘preach’ about it) if you want to keep the relationship going more than you want to prepare….or move on if the relationship isn’t as important as preparing.

We have 3 months supply of beans and my wife just assumes I stocked up because they were cheap and prices are rising. She’s happy with that….better I chase beans than chasing women.😉

[Joncrete Cungle]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

"Why shouldn't we own nothing and be happy? Better than owning a load of shite and being unhappy."

That bit made me laugh. I'm sure you all thought the same as I did, how about I own something and am happy. Christ, reminds me of an ex of mine, that kind of gibberish, you just can't reason with them.

I would like to own our home, then I can stop working 60 or 72 hour weeks. Put my feet up a bit and enjoy life, save and invest a bit more and semi retire at 58, assuming I can still access my SIPP then. Beats working to pay rent / huge mortgage into my late 60's or 70's

I don't want to be paying rent / compound interest all my adult life.