Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Lightly Toasted]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

I suppose they already own nothing and be happy.

Well yes, I suppose of you own a negative amount (liabilities > assets) then owning nothing might well make you happy!

[Axeman123]

I don't know if this was previously posted, so apologies if it has:

Hugh Hendry and Prof David Blancheflower, former BoE MPC member(!)

Halfway through and already well worth watching, although sadly the Alchemist continues to be a twat.

Lots of stuff about MPC dysfunction. Also beleives many economic relationships from before 2008 have permanently broken but central banks haven't realised yet.

Will finish watching it tomorow.

(Bonus: The 'personal life' section of Blancheflowers' wikipedia page is...interesting)

[Joncrete Cungle]

Blanchflower was part of the problem when the was on the MPC.

From Wiki

Six other members of the MPC have served during Blanchflower's time on the MPC. Blanchflower continually voted for rate cuts.^[19] At the September 2008 MPC meeting, Blanchflower distanced himself further from consensus by voting for a 0.5% 'cut' against the other eight members' 'hold'.^[20]

In the Autumn of 2008, the worldwide economic situation began to deteriorate dramatically, most clearly evidenced by dramatic falls in the values of shares worldwide. On 8 October 2008, the BOE took part in a set of simultaneously announced cuts in the policy rate of a number of major Central Banks. The MPC eventually came around to Blanchflower's view and subsequently lowered rates to levels never before seen in the Bank of England's existence and moved to do unprecedented levels of quantitative easing.

 

[Phil]

52 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

I would like to own our home, then I can stop working 60 or 72 hour weeks. Put my feet up a bit and enjoy life, save and invest a bit more and semi retire at 58, assuming I can still access my SIPP then. Beats working to pay rent / huge mortgage into my late 60's or 70's

I don't want to be paying rent / compound interest all my adult life.

What the fuck is your problem? Ffs. Supply, supply, supply. Don’t be late for work tomorrow. GDP depends on you.

My Mrs gave 25p to charity on Saturday. I nearly blew my fuckin brains out. I kept calm for the sake of humanity, and obviously, not wanting to fall out with the Mrs as she would go into “ your just a tight cunt” mode, which she did slightly.

Rant over. I have had a tot.
 

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I find that post quite offensive. You seriously want my taxes to be used to bail out what could be multiple asset owners? People who have overstretched themselves now get my taxes to pay their energy bills, so they have enough left over to be able to pay bankers their mortgage payments. W... T.... F.... I have no problem with help being given to the really in need. Let them huddle together to keep warm in a debtor's prison.

The only bailout I'm interested in is in terms of stabilising energy costs for industry/business. It would help limit job losses over next 24 months, plus also encourage further inward investment by companies that will hopefully choose the UK over the chaotic energy polices of Europe. Imo this should be the current priority. And in any case BTL owners are already begining to sell up, although I do accept HMO owners would probably benefit from this - but only a temporary reprieve I expect.

This is actually part of my thinking in what Truss should be looking to offer the country. If politically clever she should do some of those business tax cuts she's earmarked to doing, however she should also offer other benefits such as free training budgets to further attract companies to expand/relocate to the UK. The clever part is that voters will like the idea of training+job. Truss has been coy over what her big-borrowing will be spent on. Policies offering hope will help secure the next election.... Will wait and see if anything like this is announced in coming weeks.

Decl: I don't vote conservative, but nor do I want to see Sir 'Barney Rubble' Starmer get in!

[Lightscribe]

3 hours ago, Loki said:

Could just be 77th

Exactly that, some people here won’t know what you mean by that, but the obvious info agents that were out in force during the covid narrative have moved on.

Mumsnet is the perfect target, groupthink, wide audience, moderation of alternative opinions etc.

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, JMD said:

The only bailout I'm interested in is in terms of stabilising energy costs for industry/business. It would help limit job losses over next 24 months, plus also encourage further inward investment by companies that will hopefully choose the UK over the chaotic energy polices of Europe. Imo this should be the current priority. And in any case BTL owners are already begining to sell up, although I do accept HMO owners would probably benefit from this - but only a temporary reprieve I expect.

This is actually part of my thinking in what Truss should be looking to offer the country. If politically clever she should do some of those business tax cuts she's earmarked to doing, however she should also offer other benefits such as free training budgets to further attract companies to expand/relocate to the UK. The clever part is that voters will like the idea of training+job. Truss has been coy over what her big-borrowing will be spent on. Policies offering hope will help secure the next election.... Will wait and see if anything like this is announced in coming weeks.

Decl: I don't vote conservative, but nor do I want to see Sir 'Barney Rubble' Starmer get in!

I like your post. But. The Cuntry only wants free stuff. I hate to say, but , unfortunately, it will be labour and more idiotic BS 2024 ( maybe, had to put that in to seem an optimist) Not dissimilar to the present imo. Shame. It could have been all so different. Me personally, imo, think the UK is fubared. All mentioned here on this thread.
A return to Boys from the black stuff is what I see, hopefully wrong. But I doubt it. Bring on Yozzer  Hugh’s . Gizza job. 
 

[wherebee]

It's a sea of red across the markets here in Oz this morning, as well as the off market trading in oilies is down.  Did Sleepy Joe die last night or something?

[Lightscribe]

6 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Very strange logic that she thinks the Husband is controlling and making all of the decisions and yet this fool is quite happy to outsource her mind,body and wealth to Klaus.

Lots of these spend their lives on mumsnet in the beginning because they’re bored and frustrated with life at home in stagnant relationship.

They go there to moan and get confirmation bias how they are in the right in regards to all their relationship issues. Lots of men stopped being men a long time ago. 

In nature females naturally herd themselves and their offspring to the dominant authority for safety. 

Being dominated by Klaus probably offers some type of weird fetish.

[wherebee]

13 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Lots of these spend their lives on mumsnet in the beginning because they’re bored and frustrated with life at home in stagnant relationship.

They go there to moan and get confirmation bias how they are in the right in regards to all their relationship issues. Lots of men stopped being men a long time ago. 

In nature females naturally herd themselves and their offspring to the dominant authority for safety. 

Being dominated by Klaus probably offers some type of weird fetish.

I think we should get @King Penda a mumsnet account and set him loose.  He'd die of exhaustion in a week.

[Lightscribe]

6 hours ago, ILikeCake said:

Big mortgage and Audi or Range Rover on hire guaranteed.

Yup, it’s the acceptance part of the Kubler Ross scale. When things are proven that they are no longer a conspiracy i.e damage of lockdowns, economic fallout etc and they can finally see the direction where it’s going (bankruptcy) the only option is to roll over with whatever the government solution may be and pretend they agreed with it the whole time.

It’s the same with digital ID cards. They were a conspiracy a couple of years ago. When the government plans become apparent and they can finally see the direction of where it’s heading, people then say ‘well it’s handy having your driving licence, passport and wallet all in one and I’ve got nothing to hide anyway’ and again, pretend they agreed with it all along. 

[marceau]

6 hours ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Blanchflower was part of the problem when the was on the MPC.

From Wiki

Six other members of the MPC have served during Blanchflower's time on the MPC. Blanchflower continually voted for rate cuts.^[19] At the September 2008 MPC meeting, Blanchflower distanced himself further from consensus by voting for a 0.5% 'cut' against the other eight members' 'hold'.^[20]

In the Autumn of 2008, the worldwide economic situation began to deteriorate dramatically, most clearly evidenced by dramatic falls in the values of shares worldwide. On 8 October 2008, the BOE took part in a set of simultaneously announced cuts in the policy rate of a number of major Central Banks. The MPC eventually came around to Blanchflower's view and subsequently lowered rates to levels never before seen in the Bank of England's existence and moved to do unprecedented levels of quantitative easing.

 

Indeed. Blanchflower's one of Brown's crew - one of the worst, in fact. What a blast from the past, perhaps he can bring on some of the journos next? Maybe Kaletsky or David Smith? Fully recreate the 2000s environment.

I sometimes forget how terrible it was watching that crew fuck things up so horribly. The support was wall-to-wall though, it just couldn't be stopped.

Edit: For the record I think Hendry's a self-promoting bullshitter who'll latch on to whatever best enables his grift. 

[No One]

 

+76.02% up 

 

Buffet may be the oracle of Omaha, but DB is the oracle of Durham

[ThoughtCriminal]

That's a pretty sobering chart.

 

The illusion economy.

[M S E Refugee]

Russia finished according to this guy.

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

8 hours ago, JMD said:

The only bailout I'm interested in is in terms of stabilising energy costs for industry/business. It would help limit job losses over next 24 months, plus also encourage further inward investment by companies that will hopefully choose the UK over the chaotic energy polices of Europe. Imo this should be the current priority. And in any case BTL owners are already begining to sell up, although I do accept HMO owners would probably benefit from this - but only a temporary reprieve I expect.

This is actually part of my thinking in what Truss should be looking to offer the country. If politically clever she should do some of those business tax cuts she's earmarked to doing, however she should also offer other benefits such as free training budgets to further attract companies to expand/relocate to the UK. The clever part is that voters will like the idea of training+job. Truss has been coy over what her big-borrowing will be spent on. Policies offering hope will help secure the next election.... Will wait and see if anything like this is announced in coming weeks.

Decl: I don't vote conservative, but nor do I want to see Sir 'Barney Rubble' Starmer get in!

Right, so now my taxes are only going to keep zombie companies going instead of zombie households? Keep that executive pay flowing? Sorry but I'd like a return to capitalism, businesses going bust if they aren't viable instead of them keeping profits but any losses socialised and paid by taxpayers. It's subsidy after subsidy, let's have a good clearout, no pain no gain.

[King Penda]

4 hours ago, wherebee said:

I think we should get @King Penda a mumsnet account and set him loose.  He'd die of exhaustion in a week.

A thread about how many women a day that my long term boyfriend is shagging on the side because I’m on the menopause should have them frothing then when they go nuts say he is a multi millionaire who indulges my horsey lifestyle 

[CannonFodder]

8 minutes ago, King Penda said:

A thread about how many women a day that my long term boyfriend is shagging on the side because I’m on the menopause should have them frothing then when they go nuts say he is a multi millionaire who indulges my horsey lifestyle 

Important for the kids to have stability in a 8 bed mansion with adjoining stables!

Divorce might mean they need to leave private school

[King Penda]

3 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Important for the kids to have stability in a 8 bed mansion with adjoining stables!

Divorce might mean they need to leave private school

Yep they will demand divorce or separation and be has jelous has fuck 

[Pip321]

6 hours ago, wherebee said:

It's a sea of red across the markets here in Oz this morning, as well as the off market trading in oilies is down.  Did Sleepy Joe die last night or something?

Tricky, how would they know if he is dead? 
Unresponsive, grey cold skin, unable to move on his own…that’s just business as usual 😉

18 minutes ago, King Penda said:

A thread about how many women a day that my long term boyfriend is shagging on the side because I’m on the menopause should have them frothing then when they go nuts say he is a multi millionaire who indulges my horsey lifestyle 

Frothing 🤦🏻‍♂️😆

[Axeman123]

9 hours ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Blanchflower was part of the problem when the was on the MPC.

It is still worth a listen, just for how scathing he is of central banking. He also aligns with much of the thread thesis, eg CBs will over tighten us into deflation.

On the larger point 2008 and the globally co-ordinated response of QE were baked in (through CB negligence and incompetence) years before. As much as I like to imagine a 2008 that was allowed to run it's course, I just can't imagine how that would have been acheived. In that alternative universe we could be living under PM Corbyn today for that matter.

[nirvana]

Gold is dying, again....

Hangman looks round as he waits

Cord stretches tight then it breaks

Someday we will die in your dreams

How I wish we were here with you now

 

[honkydonkey]

NINETY ONE PLC pulled back enough for me to buy it today in the ISA.

[HousePriceMania]

9 minutes ago, honkydonkey said:

NINETY ONE PLC pulled back enough for me to buy it today in the ISA.

Bitcoin has pulled back enough for me not to touch it with a barge pole 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Watching the western response to the assassination attempt on Dugin that killed his daughter I am absolutely amazed. 

 

The glee and justification, all going unchallenged by the presenters on BBC, sky, CNN etc.  China and Russia, Iran etc are watching this hypocrisy and taking note.

 

I'm more convinced than ever that we're ruled by maniacs. These people have no idea what they're unleashing.

 

We're basically in an undeclared WW3 now.