Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[RJT1979]

3 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Watching the western response to the assassination attempt on Dugin that killed his daughter I am absolutely amazed. 

 

The glee and justification, all going unchallenged by the presenters on BBC, sky, CNN etc.  China and Russia, Iran etc are watching this hypocrisy and taking note.

 

I'm more convinced than ever that we're ruled by maniacs. These people have no idea what they're unleashing.

 

We're basically in an undeclared WW3 now.

What's to stop Russians in the UK now killing celebrity children or politicians children in revenge. Popcorn 🍿 

[marceau]

34 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

It is still worth a listen, just for how scathing he is of central banking. He also aligns with much of the thread thesis, eg CBs will over tighten us into deflation.

On the larger point 2008 and the globally co-ordinated response of QE were baked in (through CB negligence and incompetence) years before. As much as I like to imagine a 2008 that was allowed to run it's course, I just can't imagine how that would have been acheived. In that alternative universe we could be living under PM Corbyn today for that matter.

Blanchflower's memory is rather selective. He wanted the presses running full speed in the years leading up to the collapse, not in response to it, and would appear week after week in every media outlet to push for looser and looser policy. When warnings started to emerge that the system was running too hot and the regulatory oversight had failed, he was always at the front of the group dismissing criticism.

He is a political creature whose prime objective was to enable the power aspirations of his buddy Gordon Brown. CBs being the villain of the financial crisis neatly skips over the role of that one-eyed cunt, and his disastrous changes to the regulatory environment. The city had reached the limit of plunder that the big bang had produced, until Brown & Greenspan opened the door to a whole new type of game; a horrible political and business chimera, under an 'oversight' system that resembled a shell game. CBs were by and large a hapless bystander.

To call his wikipedia entry generous would be an understatement, it's a total misrepresentation. The only way you can see the truth is to either have watched it in real time, or to trawl back through a decades worth of newspaper articles, which of course not many are going to do. A neat example of how history gets reconstructed.

[M S E Refugee]

11 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Watching the western response to the assassination attempt on Dugin that killed his daughter I am absolutely amazed. 

 

The glee and justification, all going unchallenged by the presenters on BBC, sky, CNN etc.  China and Russia, Iran etc are watching this hypocrisy and taking note.

 

I'm more convinced than ever that we're ruled by maniacs. These people have no idea what they're unleashing.

 

We're basically in an undeclared WW3 now.

Strangely RT aren't making a big issue out of it.

[marceau]

1 minute ago, M S E Refugee said:

Strangely RT aren't making a big issue out of it.

Dugin just isn't that important politically in Russia. Just like the power of the 'oligarchs', it's western received wisdom with no basis is observable reality.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, King Penda said:

A thread about how many women a day that my long term boyfriend is shagging on the side because I’m on the menopause should have them frothing then when they go nuts say he is a multi millionaire who indulges my horsey lifestyle 

"iv really hit the wall,im flabby everywhere and i regret now thinking a little extra weight was ok because now its a lot of extra weight.He on the other hand bought a barbell and is in better shape than when we met 20 years ago.Hes also grown a 10 day stubble,cut his hair short and looks great.Worse thing is i notice women 15 years younger or more giving him the eye now.I know most women hit the wall after 45 and most men ,at least the ones who look after themselves actually get better looks wise but im struggling with it.I wish i had treated him better now over the years .

Do you think i should hide his finasteride,his beard trimmer and his face routine?

[M S E Refugee]

3 minutes ago, marceau said:

Dugin just isn't that important politically in Russia. Just like the power of the 'oligarchs', it's western received wisdom with no basis is observable reality.

I just had a quick look at his Wikipedia page and Dugin looks like the perfect bogeyman for the West so they are undoubtedly trying to elevate his status as an influential Rasputin type figure.

[Axeman123]

12 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Watching the western response to the assassination attempt on Dugin that killed his daughter I am absolutely amazed.

The doors this opens are terrifying. Lines are being crossed that can't be taken back.

The Soviet Union fed cemtex to the IRA via Libya, to kill UK police and military personnel, but they at least maintained plausible deniability. NATO did plenty of comparable acts, but again under a veil of decorum. This enabled rapprochment as needed. It left options on the table for the future. Libya alone was small enough to smash, the Soviet union and later Russian Federation never were - hence a diplomatic component was always going to be needed.

What we are seeing now is the formation of a permanent divide. They really are trying to split the world in two. I don't beleive Ukraine could have done this car-bombing without CIA/MI5 help, and neither will the RF. The open crowing tone of the media wouldn't be happening without a nod from the top. I also think this is intended to provoke an attrocity against Kiev, again to enable a total divide.

[Errol]

28 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Watching the western response to the assassination attempt on Dugin that killed his daughter I am absolutely amazed. 

 

The glee and justification, all going unchallenged by the presenters on BBC, sky, CNN etc.  China and Russia, Iran etc are watching this hypocrisy and taking note.

 

I'm more convinced than ever that we're ruled by maniacs. These people have no idea what they're unleashing.

 

We're basically in an undeclared WW3 now.

Dugin had nothing to do with Putin anyway. In Russia he is an irrelevance. It was the West that played him up and made him into some kind of important figure. Similar to Navalny, in that respect.

[marceau]

14 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I just had a quick look at his Wikipedia page and Dugin looks like the perfect bogeyman for the West so they are undoubtedly trying to elevate his status as an influential Rasputin type figure.

Yeah he's kind of a combination of David Starkey and Katie Hopkins, and about as influential in policy terms.

The British equivalent of this would be assassinating Niall Ferguson or someone like that. Just a weird and stupid target - stinks of CIA.

[ThoughtCriminal]

17 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Strangely RT aren't making a big issue out of it.

They don't need to.

 

This one is going in back pocket for later use.

 

"Well you did it to Dugin. Now we do it".

[DurhamBorn]

34 minutes ago, honkydonkey said:

NINETY ONE PLC pulled back enough for me to buy it today in the ISA.

Im hoping i can get all ladders in them,i think il remove bottom ladder and do 2 more instead of 3.They are at the speculative end of my portfolio,,but these EM asset managers as a group might really leverage things once money flows into their markets.Vanguard and Blackrock wont be getting the flows.These companies also manage a lot for public sector bodies,local authority pensions etc.Pay increases see flows increase there as well.They will suffer of course as markets fall,but i dont think the market understands the structural position here.If it doesnt work out they might go down 40%,but if it does go up 300%+.I always like those odds.

AUM will likely keep falling for a while though due to inflation,but as usual im using ladders rather than try to time.

[ThoughtCriminal]

4 minutes ago, Errol said:

Dugin had nothing to do with Putin anyway. In Russia he is an irrelevance. It was the West that played him up and made him into some kind of important figure. Similar to Navalny, in that respect.

Yup, people are calling him Goebbels. Absurd.

 

What it does is provide justification for anything BRICS want to do in future. Our hypocrisy will be our undoing.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Let's check in on Germany

 

🤡🤡🤡

 

 

 

 

[Errol]

15 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Yup, people are calling him Goebbels. Absurd.

It's surprising to see so many Western media pundits and commentators cheering this heinous act. 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

11 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I don't know if this was previously posted, so apologies if it has:

Hugh Hendry and Prof David Blancheflower, former BoE MPC member(!)

Halfway through and already well worth watching, although sadly the Alchemist continues to be a twat.

Lots of stuff about MPC dysfunction. Also beleives many economic relationships from before 2008 have permanently broken but central banks haven't realised yet.

Will finish watching it tomorow.

(Bonus: The 'personal life' section of Blancheflowers' wikipedia page is...interesting)

Why did the relationship between unemployment and pay break down starting in 2008? Blanchflower doesn't answer and isn't asked such an obvious question. My view is that it is globalisation and related immigration. However, if the date is 2008, rather than the much earlier breaking of the link between productivity and earnings, then perhaps it is his rate cuts.

He also comes across as a twat conflating Brexit and a business moving because of energy costs. Also the idea that he is the most knowledgeable in the room and still knows little is an excuse. A way of belittling those who disagree - they know even less. Conceited twat.

[Starsend]

3 hours ago, marceau said:

Indeed. Blanchflower's one of Brown's crew - one of the worst, in fact. What a blast from the past, perhaps he can bring on some of the journos next? Maybe Kaletsky or David Smith? Fully recreate the 2000s environment.

I sometimes forget how terrible it was watching that crew fuck things up so horribly. The support was wall-to-wall though, it just couldn't be stopped.

Edit: For the record I think Hendry's a self-promoting bullshitter who'll latch on to whatever best enables his grift. 

Have to a agree. I've watched some of his stuff and he just annoys me, he's fucking twat.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Why did the relationship between unemployment and pay break down starting in 2008? Blanchflower doesn't answer and isn't asked such an obvious question. My view is that it is globalisation and related immigration. However, if the date is 2008, rather than the much earlier breaking of the link between productivity and earnings, then perhaps it is his rate cuts.

He also comes across as a twat conflating Brexit and a business moving because of energy costs. Also the idea that he is the most knowledgeable in the room and still knows little is an excuse. A way of belittling those who disagree - they know even less. Conceited twat.

He is one of the reasons we are in this mess of course,anyone who helped the Labour government are.The Tories risk being wiped out because they arent in government when they are in government now.The charities,civil service,unis etc all taken over by the left.First sign of a cut they roll out the "victims".I cant remember the last time anyone rolled out the real victims.Young working people not on bennies.The destruction has of course now speeded up and ran into inflation,always the great truth teller of a society.

So far though it looks like those on the government tit are being able to pass all the pain onto the private worker,or saver.The road to currency collapse and hyperinflation.

[Noallegiance]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

He is one of the reasons we are in this mess of course,anyone who helped the Labour government are.The Tories risk being wiped out because they arent in government when they are in government now.The charities,civil service,unis etc all taken over by the left.First sign of a cut they role out the "victims".I cant remember the last time anyone rolled out the real victims.Young working people not on bennies.The destruction has of course now speeded up and ran into inflation,always the great truth teller of a society.

So far though it looks like those on the government tit are being able to pass all the pain onto the private worker,or saver.The road to currency collapse and hyperinflation.

The potential for Sterling collapse before Euro collapse.....

 

[Starsend]

53 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

The doors this opens are terrifying. Lines are being crossed that can't be taken back.

The Soviet Union fed cemtex to the IRA via Libya, to kill UK police and military personnel, but they at least maintained plausible deniability. NATO did plenty of comparable acts, but again under a veil of decorum. This enabled rapprochment as needed. It left options on the table for the future. Libya alone was small enough to smash, the Soviet union and later Russian Federation never were - hence a diplomatic component was always going to be needed.

What we are seeing now is the formation of a permanent divide. They really are trying to split the world in two. I don't beleive Ukraine could have done this car-bombing without CIA/MI5 help, and neither will the RF. The open crowing tone of the media wouldn't be happening without a nod from the top. I also think this is intended to provoke an attrocity against Kiev, again to enable a total divide.

The Russians assassinated people in the UK not so long ago, with an innocent Brit killed as well and a piggy who spent months in hospital.

Fuck 'em.

[M S E Refugee]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

He is one of the reasons we are in this mess of course,anyone who helped the Labour government are.The Tories risk being wiped out because they arent in government when they are in government now.The charities,civil service,unis etc all taken over by the left.First sign of a cut they role out the "victims".I cant remember the last time anyone rolled out the real victims.Young working people not on bennies.The destruction has of course now speeded up and ran into inflation,always the great truth teller of a society.

So far though it looks like those on the government tit are being able to pass all the pain onto the private worker,or saver.The road to currency collapse and hyperinflation.

Do you think a new party will emerge?

I don't think Labour are any more popular than the Tories in the North.

[Starsend]

44 minutes ago, Errol said:

It's surprising to see so many Western media pundits and commentators cheering this heinous act. 

I don't approve of this act and we shouldn't be cheering it on but why the fuck is everybody acting like the Russians are fucking angels?

[Errol]

Just now, Starsend said:

The Russians assassinated people in the UK not so long ago, with an innocent Brit killed as well and a piggy who spent months in hospital.

Almost certainly a Western intelligence operation. Don't believe what you read in the UK media.

[Plan-b]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

Gold is dying, again....

Hangman looks round as he waits

Cord stretches tight then it breaks

Someday we will die in your dreams

How I wish we were here with you now

 

In context it's fine on a day where most things are down

[Errol]

 

[HousePriceMania]