Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[nirvana]

apparently the Turks have doubled their Russian oil imports and with the week lira it means petrol is about a quid a litre....

Turkey for winter anyone? maybe should be posting this in the 'get the fuk out of the UK' thread? 

[Jay]

3 hours ago, moneyscam said:

Whilst my stocks are taking a bath at least my hedge is the gift that keeps giving.

Well played sir..thanks for the post..at least I know who has been taking my money..didn’t think the Swiss would let it run..

[belfastchild]

Heres one for @DurhamBorn

Was out today and went looking for a new bed. Been thinking about bullwhip effect and all that and figured I at least needed a new mattress and also my bed is about 15 years old. Probably the best time about now to get one.
Fancied a proper heavy wooden bed with tailboard etc, not cheap shite. Had a look online from a local small retailer and an irish made mattress and irish made bed were the guts of 1500 quid. Figured that wouldnt be too bad in the scheme of things (bed cost 400 quid 15 years ago).
Went down to have a look and they didnt have the wooden one in, nobody else in the shop so got chatting to the guy. Wooden beds were the rage about 3 years ago then they got hit with a 1000% increase in shipping costs. That irish made oak bed actually came from China and just warehoused here. The box volume is quite high and they are quite heavy so were getting crucified on the shipping costs so no longer imported (although he managed to source me one). Said the push is for older style divan beds easier to make here.
Settled on the mattress, delivery etc and it was about 1500 quid roughly. He gets the calculator out and gives me 25% off. Said they had to reduce their prices recently and I was the first person through the door at around lunchtime!
A few other people came in whilst I was there so I didnt get the chance to ask more about trends and footfall etc.
I bought my first bed from the same shop when I just bought this house and its a poor end of town so the stuff I bought today was the most expensive they had. Interestingly the cheapest stuff was about the same price now as I paid about 6 years ago for a mattress but the cheap stuff now looks like cardboard in comparison.

[Funn3r]

8 minutes ago, nirvana said:

apparently the Turks have doubled their Russian oil imports and with the week lira it means petrol is about a quid a litre....

Turkey for winter anyone? maybe should be posting this in the 'get the fuk out of the UK' thread? 

When I was in Turkey in late May we drove past filling stations and we worked out it was £1.20 per litre

So if you're Turkish it's actually come down.

Have to believe it's not as simple as that though and there's a subsidy in it somewhere.

Whatever, have feeling they are not going to freeze like we are.

[Errol]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

GBP=monopoly money bro

Precisely my point.

[Axeman123]

32 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Whatever, have feeling they are not going to freeze like we are.

Geography certainly supports that.

[Starsend]

2 hours ago, BWW said:

and will stay at 15+ for ....

and svr or 2-5 year fixed rates for mortgages will hit ....

??

At what point are they absolutely forced to deal with this? When it breaches 20% ? 25% ? There must be a point where they have to act robustly.

This is getting quite alarming for me now. My retirement plans going up in smoke fast. Almost tempted to dump everything into gold as I have some faith that will always retain some value.

[Don Coglione]

1 hour ago, marceau said:

It is the only way out imo. At the moment muddled authority and responsibility is allowing money to call the shots. You need the man the media was claiming Trump to be. Someone who stands up on TV with a group of hard-looking Generals behind him and says 'it's mine now'. 'Mine' meaning both spoils AND responsibility.

Of course, Trump wasn't that guy. But if we don't get him, this situation just gets worse and worse as the vested interests, cartels and ideologues rip the place apart.

Vlad?

[Don Coglione]

3 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Geography certainly supports that.

Central Turkey can get fucking cold.

[Axeman123]

4 minutes ago, Starsend said:

At what point are they absolutely forced to deal with this? When it breaches 20% ? 25% ? There must be a point where they have to act robustly.

This kind of thing (from Friday) is what will scare them into action IMO

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/inflation-fuels-jump-government-debt-064741248.html

Headline: Inflation fuels jump in Government debt costs as borrowing hits £4.9bn

"It came as debt interest payments climbed to £5.8 billion in July, lifting from £3.5 billion in the same month last year due to increases in Retail Price Index (RPI) inflation."

4 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

Central Turkey can get fucking cold.

Fair point, I was just being facetious.

[Starsend]

2 hours ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Theres so much BS on YT re physical silver shortages.

When these vids crop up on my feed,  I just check in at Bairds, and every time there is no supply issue for bullion Sovs or silver Brits. There has only been one time in a decade where there was a wait for Sovs or Brits.

Even then Baird were still selling their bullion silver rounds Rabbits Monarchs Eagles etc...

Main reason to buy old silver coins on ebay is to avoid VAT. My mate has been doing this for over a decade.

Hes now in to full on fine pieces mind.

That is a different ball game all together. Very very bouyant i'm told.

My experience on eBay is that you don't save the VAT, the prices simply adjust to what you'd pay from a dealer with VAT - for the premium bullion coins anyway. 

I've always bought from dealers because if you buy a hundred at a time the unit price is usually much cheaper than eBay.

[Starsend]

2 hours ago, Funn3r said:

I must have got my maths wrong then as it seemed only slightly cheaper to me. I am not a maths person trust me. Maybe I was wrong in believing that value of 11.3g for florin weight. Or maybe as you said I should be focusing on the 50% silver ones rather than 100%

I don't think you're allowing for a troy ounce? An addition 2.76g

[Harley]

57 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Heres one for @DurhamBorn

Was out today and went looking for a new bed. Been thinking about bullwhip effect and all that and figured I at least needed a new mattress and also my bed is about 15 years old. Probably the best time about now to get one.
Fancied a proper heavy wooden bed with tailboard etc, not cheap shite. Had a look online from a local small retailer and an irish made mattress and irish made bed were the guts of 1500 quid. Figured that wouldnt be too bad in the scheme of things (bed cost 400 quid 15 years ago).
Went down to have a look and they didnt have the wooden one in, nobody else in the shop so got chatting to the guy. Wooden beds were the rage about 3 years ago then they got hit with a 1000% increase in shipping costs. That irish made oak bed actually came from China and just warehoused here. The box volume is quite high and they are quite heavy so were getting crucified on the shipping costs so no longer imported (although he managed to source me one). Said the push is for older style divan beds easier to make here.
Settled on the mattress, delivery etc and it was about 1500 quid roughly. He gets the calculator out and gives me 25% off. Said they had to reduce their prices recently and I was the first person through the door at around lunchtime!
A few other people came in whilst I was there so I didnt get the chance to ask more about trends and footfall etc.
I bought my first bed from the same shop when I just bought this house and its a poor end of town so the stuff I bought today was the most expensive they had. Interestingly the cheapest stuff was about the same price now as I paid about 6 years ago for a mattress but the cheap stuff now looks like cardboard in comparison.

Ah the old nice guy routine.  Well played!

[ThoughtCriminal]

They say it like it's nothing.

 

"Only 5-10 winters. What's your problem?"

[marceau]

25 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

Vlad?

Yes. Although it's a lot more likely in the US than UK.

[Harley]

1 minute ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

They say it like it's nothing.

 

"Only 5-10 winters. What's your problem?"

And all voted for so naturally just following the declared wishes of the people!

[Funn3r]

17 minutes ago, Starsend said:

I don't think you're allowing for a troy ounce? An addition 2.76g

Ooh I vaguely remember troy ounces from the back inside cover of my "log tables" at school. 1,780 farthings equal 5,280 furlongs or something like that.  Failed O-level maths 3 times, scraped through on attempt 4 with a "pity pass"

[Funn3r]

17 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

They say it like it's nothing.

"Only 5-10 winters. What's your problem?"

Well it is nothing. To them. Herr Presidente is not actually going to wipe himself down with a tissue instead of having a shower you know, that's just for the press release. 

[Noallegiance]

Controversial biomass power station scheme ‘to be greenlit by Government’ (msn.com)

[ThoughtCriminal]

Saudi's flexing their muscle 

[Harley]

Slow day on the markets today.  Little on the screens or current holdings.  My AUM is weakening.  Some potentially bearish chart setups (head and shoulders type stuff) and the market short ETFs are bottoming.  Feeling a bit calm before the storm.

[JMD]

16 hours ago, Phil said:

I like your post. But. The Cuntry only wants free stuff. I hate to say, but , unfortunately, it will be labour and more idiotic BS 2024 ( maybe, had to put that in to seem an optimist) Not dissimilar to the present imo. Shame. It could have been all so different. Me personally, imo, think the UK is fubared. All mentioned here on this thread.
A return to Boys from the black stuff is what I see, hopefully wrong. But I doubt it. Bring on Yozzer  Hugh’s . Gizza job. 
 

Tbc I'm not confident of, or forecasting that Truss will do any of those things I listed. They are just part of my personal litmus test to gauge if new cabinet is moving things in the right direction. But if it is just more BAU I will seriously re-evaluate my 10 year 2018-2028 plan, investment strategy... Maybe I'm being naive in hoping government can (even slightly) move the dial away from economic collapse - however I'm not really looking at it in those terms - it's more that my choices/actions are pretty constrained and so it's more a case of monitoring 'what they do' (not what they say they'll do) and de-risking my portfolio and assets accordingly....         Tbh, I don't know what other realistic options are open to me? If I may ask Phil - how are you approaching this, are you for example exclusively in gold and cash? What are others doing in regard to reducing portfolio risk going forward? 

 

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

They say it like it's nothing.

 

"Only 5-10 winters. What's your problem?"

Not sure we’d get through one winter without serious disorder, let alone 5-10. The times drawing near methinks.

Well that time magazine roadmap looks increasingly becoming more accurate.

Maybe the economy will be ‘fixed’ by 2023 (in their eyes), can’t make an omelette without cracking a few eggs and all that.

 

[No One]

8 hours ago, nirvana said:

Gold is dying, again....

Hangman looks round as he waits

Cord stretches tight then it breaks

Someday we will die in your dreams

How I wish we were here with you now

 

Buy the dip.

8 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Watching the western response to the assassination attempt on Dugin that killed his daughter I am absolutely amazed. 

The glee and justification, all going unchallenged by the presenters on BBC, sky, CNN etc.  China and Russia, Iran etc are watching this hypocrisy and taking note.

I'm more convinced than ever that we're ruled by maniacs. These people have no idea what they're unleashing.

We're basically in an undeclared WW3 now.

No MSM is publicly rejoicing, the twitterati are a different story.

8 hours ago, RJT1979 said:

What's to stop Russians in the UK now killing celebrity children or politicians children in revenge. Popcorn 🍿 

Exactly, Very dangerous game. However I don't think this was a western led assassination's.

7 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Strangely RT aren't making a big issue out of it.

Dougin is not, contrary to western tripe, an influential figure.

7 hours ago, marceau said:

Dugin just isn't that important politically in Russia. Just like the power of the 'oligarchs', it's western received wisdom with no basis is observable reality.

This

6 hours ago, Errol said:

Almost certainly a Western intelligence operation. Don't believe what you read in the UK media.

Almost certainly a Ukrainian led op, a western led op would not use car bombing as too much collateral. Must be a Ukraine thing as they have massive contempt for Russians.

6 hours ago, Starsend said:

The Russians assassinated people in the UK not so long ago, with an innocent Brit killed as well and a piggy who spent months in hospital.

Fuck 'em.

This is also true, although using poisons to be targeted as opposed to car bombings that can cause carnage. Also directed at ex-kgb, i.e defectors.

But you are right, you reap what you sow.

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im hoping i can get all ladders in them,i think il remove bottom ladder and do 2 more instead of 3.They are at the speculative end of my portfolio,,but these EM asset managers as a group might really leverage things once money flows into their markets.Vanguard and Blackrock wont be getting the flows.These companies also manage a lot for public sector bodies,local authority pensions etc.Pay increases see flows increase there as well.They will suffer of course as markets fall,but i dont think the market understands the structural position here.If it doesnt work out they might go down 40%,but if it does go up 300%+.I always like those odds.

AUM will likely keep falling for a while though due to inflation,but as usual im using ladders rather than try to time.

 the next DB tip, nice. Worth checking.

5 hours ago, moneyscam said:

Hey SP. I would be guessing as much as anyone else even if it's an educated guess. Bear in mind that as far as fiat fx goes it's a relative game of who is the least ugly. Can cable go below parity? Absolutely because of massive balance of payments deficit and increasing budget deficits - the dreaded twin deficits that only the US can sustain (for a time) as USD is reserve currency. It is because of this reserve currency status that as things break down further I can see further flows to the USD and thus cable being pulled below parity. End of 2023 is a realistic scenario but I wouldn't bet the house on it as there are a lot of things that can happen between now and then.

As for interest rates, normally I would argue you need positive real rates so way above where we are now. However I think the inflationary shock which leads to demand destruction and reduction of aggregate demand will do most of the heavy lifting and so rates will not need to go above current inflation to achieve this outcome.

That's a pun surely

 

3 hours ago, marceau said:

Putin was the least worst option given what had happened to Russia in the 90s. If you are genuinely interested there's a good book called 'Godfather of the Kremlin' which details the period of Putin's rise. The author, Paul Klebnikov, was killed for his writing.

You can get Hitler like figures in these scenarios, Putin is tame by comparison.

Invading Ukraine vs all of Europe.

 

 

@HousePriceManiawas this you?

 

[No One]

4 hours ago, baffledbyzirp said:

SP, I agree with MS that those who claim to know, generally know nothing, and those of us who are honest, are simply reading the tea leaves.

 

2. Inflation looks set to be circa 10% into next year