Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[HousePriceMania]

12 hours ago, nirvana said:

never met a nice South African, and that's not bloody surprising mun

 

In my younger days I used to work in S.A. quite a bit.

2 points

1) I agree, never met a nice south african

2) The women are dirty as ****.

 

[feed]

13 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Everything I read from Tories and the Tory press is calling for more bennies and more immigration.

That’s not strictly true is it.  There have been a number of articles linked here from the telegraph and Journos’ reading this site for material is starting to become a meme.
 

[HousePriceMania]

9 hours ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

HOLY FREAKIN GOD.

"Bluebells12 · Today 19:11

 

One of my favorite songs, jesus they look young.
 

 

16 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

You've made the post I was going to.

 

For a pivot towards sanity in taxation and work it requires a constituency in the media, think tanks etc to be laying the ground, but it doesn't exist.

 

Everything I read from Tories and the Tory press is calling for more bennies and more immigration.

 

I just can't see a change of course at this point, the country is too conditioned to bennies being from the magic money tree.

How does that fit in with a sustainable environment ?

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

Already we are seeing advice to extend mortgages or go interest only. Although the most laughable thing in this article is the example interest rate of 2%. Not for anyone re-mortgaging now. If they're suggesting repayment holidays for people still on a fix then they're talking about dead men walking.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/cut-biggest-bill-them-mortgage-080005151.html

[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Already we are seeing advice to extend mortgages or go interest only. Although the most laughable thing in this article is the example interest rate of 2%. Not for anyone re-mortgaging now. If they're suggesting repayment holidays for people still on a fix then they're talking about dead men walking.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/cut-biggest-bill-them-mortgage-080005151.html

Going interest only on large mortgage means you are never going to move house ever again.

[Majorpain]

12 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Germany days away from having to implement its gas rationing plan.

 

Putin is laughing his cock off.

Which makes this very dangerous territory indeed, once this snowball starts its going to be an avalanche before it can be stopped.

Issue is that if you prioritize people this winter then you have to let industry go to the wall and a load of people die next year as economy caves in, if you keep industry going as best as possible to keep economy going lots of people are going to be very cold at best, load of old people dying at worst.

IMO UK is mainly getting done in because despite having significant domestic, import and LNG capacity, those pipelines to Europe mean its more profitable to send as much as possible there rather than keep it in UK.  If those pipeline get shut off UK mainland gas prices are only going down.  Does Liz Truss fancy making herself super popular (with her own voters....) during her first week?

[nirvana]

54 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Euro taking a cold bath overnight. Someone might pull the plug out and watch it swirl down the hole.

only against the mighty USD, it's unmoved against the shitty £ eh? 

PS DXY takes 109, u heard it predicted yesterday eh? 

[HousePriceMania]

16 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Already we are seeing advice to extend mortgages or go interest only. Although the most laughable thing in this article is the example interest rate of 2%. Not for anyone re-mortgaging now. If they're suggesting repayment holidays for people still on a fix then they're talking about dead men walking.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/cut-biggest-bill-them-mortgage-080005151.html

IO mortgages still exist ?

[wherebee]

8 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Which makes this very dangerous territory indeed, once this snowball starts its going to be an avalanche before it can be stopped.

Issue is that if you prioritize people this winter then you have to let industry go to the wall and a load of people die next year as economy caves in, if you keep industry going as best as possible to keep economy going lots of people are going to be very cold at best, load of old people dying at worst.

IMO UK is mainly getting done in because despite having significant domestic, import and LNG capacity, those pipelines to Europe mean its more profitable to send as much as possible there rather than keep it in UK.  If those pipeline get shut off UK mainland gas prices are only going down.  Does Liz Truss fancy making herself super popular (with her own voters....) during her first week?

one plus size is the evolutionary advantages of white skin smash in hard in a country in which cheap energy is not available.  Can't make Vit D at northern latitudes, can't heat yourself cheaply, and facing coronavirus infection every 6-18 months?

you're fucked.  as in proper fucked.

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, marceau said:

I normally avoid them but I've been reading some of the Tory think tank and policy types over the last 24 hours. Not a single one grasps the problem. They're all focused on pushing more money out to the 'needy' - ie pensioners, benefits and disability, with no finer discernment of the content of those groups whatsoever. The general tone for those in work is they are going to have to 'suck it up' - and there's near total backing for more immigration, which the UK public are apparently 'happy' with now that Brexit has happened. Unless Truss has some magic team that isn't connected to these people I think a Sterling crisis is baked in at this point.

As was the case for 2008, seeing it coming sets you up for a shock when the world cooks up a false narrative in front of your eyes. Nobody will want to engage with the true story. Just take your profits, correctly arrange your affairs and let the retards move on to the next disaster, it's all you can do.

I’ve always said Brexit was a set up. UKIP and then Brexit party clamoring was getting to hard to ignore. Cameron gambled with the vote and no one expected the vote to go the way it did. May was a remainer and Boris then went missing as usual. His whole family were remain as was he and we were expected to believe that he ‘changed’ his mind and switched sides. Brexit was no way part of the globalist playbook. 

It was set up to fail. The disinflation cycle was already ending and the reckoning was always coming, and the timing of leaving was closely lined up. It was going to be the ‘fall guy’ excuse for our hyperinflation, when really it was because of our service based economy, bloated public sector/pension costs and the fact that half our country relies on bennies and pays no tax. 

They must have been laughing behind closed doors letting millions in through the back door, whilst promoting meme flights to Rwanda and Joe public swallowing it up.

The final nail in the coffin is house prices. Once our holy mantra in this county of house prices collapse and millions are in negative equity with mortgages they can’t afford (what do you think the stamp duty holiday was for?) then our glorious leaders will hold another referendum to rejoin and that we all made a terrible mistake as we are ‘stronger together’ through these hard times. War may even accelerate that.

 

[marceau]

1 minute ago, Lightscribe said:

I’ve always said Brexit was a set up. UKIP and then Brexit party clamoring was getting to hard to ignore. Cameron gambled with the vote and no one expected the vote to go the way it did. May was a remainer and Boris then went missing as usual. His whole family were remain as was he and we were expected to believe that he ‘changed’ his mind and switched sides. Brexit was no way part of the globalist playbook. 

It was set up to fail. The disinflation cycle was already ending and the reckoning was always coming, and the timing of leaving was closely lined up. It was going to be the ‘fall guy’ excuse for our hyperinflation, when really it was because of our bloated public sector/pension costs and the fact that half our country relies on bennies and pays no tax. 

They must have been laughing behind closed doors letting millions in through the back door and whilst promoting meme flights to Rwanda and Joe public swallowing it up.

The final nail in the coffin is house prices. Once our holy mantra in this county of house prices collapse and millions are in negative equity with mortgages they can’t afford (what do you think the stamp duty holiday was for?) then our glorious leaders will hold another referendum to rejoin and that we all made a terrible mistake as we are ‘stronger together’ through these hard times. War may even accelerate that.

 

The flaw in this is that there is no way in hell this masterplan can work. Being in charge of ruins isn't an upgrade for our elites - and even if it was, they aren't likely to remain elites in a system without any foundations or legitimacy.

These people are fuck ups, and they've FUCKED UP TOO OFTEN to keep the show on the road. If there's conspiracy, it's a really, really shit one.

[M S E Refugee]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I’ve always said Brexit was a set up. UKIP and then Brexit party clamoring was getting to hard to ignore. Cameron gambled with the vote and no one expected the vote to go the way it did. May was a remainer and Boris then went missing as usual. His whole family were remain as was he and we were expected to believe that he ‘changed’ his mind and switched sides. Brexit was no way part of the globalist playbook. 

It was set up to fail. The disinflation cycle was already ending and the reckoning was always coming, and the timing of leaving was closely lined up. It was going to be the ‘fall guy’ excuse for our hyperinflation, when really it was because of our bloated public sector/pension costs and the fact that half our country relies on bennies and pays no tax. 

They must have been laughing behind closed doors letting millions in through the back door and whilst promoting meme flights to Rwanda and Joe public swallowing it up.

The final nail in the coffin is house prices. Once our holy mantra in this county of house prices collapse and millions are in negative equity with mortgages they can’t afford (what do you think the stamp duty holiday was for?) then our glorious leaders will hold another referendum to rejoin and that we all made a terrible mistake as we are ‘stronger together’ through these hard times. War may even accelerate that.

 

I'm not sure there will be an EU to join, I think it's everyone for themselves.

Poland has been criticising the larger Countries in the EU who dictate terms to the smaller Countries so I wouldn't be suprised if there is a lot of push back after the Italian elections by the smaller Countries.

[Option5]

9 minutes ago, nirvana said:

only against the mighty USD, it's unmoved against the shitty £ eh? 

PS DXY takes 109, u heard it predicted yesterday eh? 

The Norwegian Krone is up 1.7% on the pound in a week, 1.46% up against the Euro and 0.77% down against the USD.

I'm afraid this all makes no sense to me as Norway is a rich country and the rest are up to their eyeballs in debt. Currency exchange rates seem to be supply and demand driven,not value driven. I suppose it's because most of Norway's exports (oil and gas) are traded in USD.

But, what happens if the petrodollar and other reserve currencies collapse, will countries expect to be paid in their own currency for their goods, just as Russia is attempting to do?

I suspect a big change is coming in world trade.

[M S E Refugee]

3 minutes ago, marceau said:

The flaw in this is that there is no way in hell this masterplan can work. Being in charge of ruins isn't an upgrade for our elites - and even if it was, they aren't likely to remain elites in a system without any foundations or legitimacy.

These people are fuck ups, and they've FUCKED UP TOO OFTEN to keep the show on the road. If there's conspiracy, it's a really, really shit one.

Klaus 'Ozymandias' Schwab looks to have fucked up bigtime!

 

[Lightscribe]

3 minutes ago, marceau said:

The flaw in this is that there is no way in hell this masterplan can work. Being in charge of ruins isn't an upgrade for our elites - and even if it was, they aren't likely to remain elites in a system without any foundations or legitimacy.

These people are fuck ups, and they've FUCKED UP TOO OFTEN to keep the show on the road. If there's conspiracy, it's a really, really shit one.

Name one policy (not blue passports) that we have taken the advantage of Brexit when it could have been the springboard to secure this county through these hard times. Energy (nope), Fishing rights (nope), immigration (nope), trade deals (nope).

Who says we were ever supposed to come out of this. For them it’s just a guaranteed seat on the Ark.

[marceau]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Name one policy (not blue passports) that we have taken the advantage of Brexit when it could have been the springboard to secure this county through these hard times. Energy (nope), Fishing rights (nope), immigration (nope), trade deals (nope).

Who says we were ever supposed to come out of this. For them it’s just a guaranteed seat on the Ark.

Just looks like more fuck ups to me.

And what ark? If they want to condemn themselves to a future of green zones with the plebs rotting outside they're fucking idiots. Green zones are PRISONS with fancy restaurants.

And, of course, no matter how well provisioned, they have to go outside the wire eventually.......

[Option5]

8 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I'm not sure there will be an EU to join, I think it's everyone for themselves.

Poland has been criticising the larger Countries in the EU who dictate terms to the smaller Countries so I wouldn't be suprised if there is a lot of push back after the Italian elections by the smaller Countries.

There are even rumblings of Norway leaving the EEA, the population is fed up of the energy market rules imposed by membership pushing up prices of gas and electricity which are plentiful here.

[Starsend]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Name one policy (not blue passports) that we have taken the advantage of Brexit when it could have been the springboard to secure this county through these hard times. Energy (nope), Fishing rights (nope), immigration (nope), trade deals (nope).

Who says we were ever supposed to come out of this. For them it’s just a guaranteed seat on the Ark.

Getting rid of the EU was only ever half the task, the other half getting rid of the cretins in this country. I recall many people predicting they would open the floodgates to non-EU immigration once we left and so they have.

Was always clear that our politicians were a big part of the problem. At least they can no longer hide behind the EU anymore as they did for years. We need a a new Farage and new parties.

[ThoughtCriminal]

39 minutes ago, feed said:

That’s not strictly true is it.  There have been a number of articles linked here from the telegraph and Journos’ reading this site for material is starting to become a meme.
 

VAST majority are "more help needed for the poor".

 

But if it makes you feel better to believe in the second coming of Thatcher then far be it for me to come between a man and his delusions.

 

Congratulations btw, you just became an "AKSHUALLY" man. Pedantry achievement unlocked.

[feed]

8 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

VAST majority are "more help needed for the poor".

 

But if it makes you feel better to believe in the second coming of Thatcher then far be it for me to come between a man and his delusions.

 

Congratulations btw, you just became an "AKSHUALLY" man. Pedantry achievement unlocked.

The second coming of Thatcher. Could you be more disingenuous.   What is important to maintain credibility is to acknowledge the change in the narrative, the change in direction.  There is a shift in what is being published, is being discussed that would have been unthinkable as little a 6 months ago.  That people expect an instant flip in mainstream thinking after 40 years is bizarre.   

But If you want to maintain your DOOM, DOOM, DOOM, narrative, then go ahead. But it’s utterly tedious.  
 

[Option5]

You couldn't make it up.

A major solar panel manufacturer in Norway has advised it will be stopping production and laying off workers from September 8th as it can't afford the electricity need to run its facilities.

Ho hum. 

[Noallegiance]

44 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Which makes this very dangerous territory indeed, once this snowball starts its going to be an avalanche before it can be stopped.

UK is mainly getting done in because despite having significant domestic, import and LNG capacity, those pipelines to Europe mean its more profitable to send as much as possible there rather than keep it in UK.  If those pipeline get shut off UK mainland gas prices are only going down.  Does Liz Truss fancy making herself super popular (with her own voters....) during her first week?

This is why I'm holding off on getting more Calor until I see what her direction is.

[moneyscam]

As I'm of Italian origin I keep a keen eye on Italy and its upcoming elections and how this affects the Euro macro outlook. Elections are due to be held on Sept 25th. The current leading party in the polls is the right wing Fratelli d'Italia (brothers of Italy) followed closely behind by the left wing Partito Democratico.

This is quite a turnaround from a few years ago when FDI only polled around 5% and Matteo Salvini's Lega was the leading right wing party having governed in a coalition with the populist 5 Star party after the last elections in 2018.

The main reason for this is that FDI refused to participate in the Draghi coalition (which all the other partied did) and its draconian Covid policies like the Green Pass (no jab, no job). It is expected that FDI will form the next government in a coalition with Lega and Forza Italia the other right leaning parties. They may even attain a 2/3rds majority in both houses of parliament which would allow them to change the constitution and reduce the power of the President and increase those of the Prime Minister amongst other things.

This is already making markets nervous with the MIB stock market one of the worst European performers this year and the BTP/Bund spread beginning to widen. It also adds to the pressure on the Euro.

I'll update as things develop as it bears keeping an eye on as it will add to an already shit situation in Euroland as Italy is also a big importer of Russian gas and oil albeit not to the same extent as Germany.

Those who are calling for a recession in Europe IMO are being optimistic. If we get to the stage that energy has to be rationed then we will have a depression never mind a recession. This mornings Euro area PMI's are coming in below 50 signifying contraction and IMO this is only just getting started. 

[marceau]

11 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Getting rid of the EU was only ever half the task, the other half getting rid of the cretins in this country. I recall many people predicting they would open the floodgates to non-EU immigration once we left and so they have.

Was always clear that our politicians were a big part of the problem. At least they can no longer hide behind the EU anymore as they did for years. We need a a new Farage and new parties.

All leaving the EU did was remove one of the shells from the shell game. It made the excuses and misdirections a little tougher, nothing more.

In some cases the polos didn't even bother to adapt, they just carried on blaming the EU while sitting on an 80 seat majority.

[M S E Refugee]

I am waiting for some of the Cash rich tight-arses at work to ask me how to buy Gold, this would indicate that hyperinflation was very much a possibility.

A few of them yesterday were reconciled to the fact that the UK was fucked although I don't think they have a clue of how bad its going to be.