Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Lightscribe]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

...And shameful that BBC doesn't even attempt serious reporting on these issues. I mean it's budget is well over £4billion pounds if include it's profit from worldwide commercial sales. With nearly 10% of that spent on news and current affairs - how exactly do they justify that kind of spend while operating such a poor service? 

Why would you expect the BBC to report on anything impartially that’s against the agenda?

[sancho panza]

8 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

That’s the direct cost and doesn’t include ‘other costs’ like support staff salaries etc. They’ve also reduced the training time compared to other forces and outsourced the main portion of officer training to a college run a 3rd party contractor (which was never going to end well) so they’re hardly at Hendon.

The attrition rate is increasing as well as using direct entry routes in which its even higher.

I've seen shifts recently where a newly qualified Paramedic is out with a trainee  technician(technicians can give less drugs than a para) a few shifts out of training School and they've then been given a uni student who's a few shifts in.very stressful shift for the para.

No idea on the costs but trainee techs get 14 weeks at training School.

Constant churn now, when I joined 10 years seniority was nothing as there were loads of 20 or 30 years in crew room.on a night shift now, 5 years can win you the prize. 

Which is all OK until you get those 'come to jesus' moments @Harley referred to a few pages back and then they wonder why the average career now is less than 5 years.Paras get hollowed out mentally in that time if they're constantly crewed without much experience around them

[sancho panza]

The title says it all.look out below.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/18/interest-rates-must-hit-6pc-tame-inflation-says-founding-bank/

Interest rates must hit 6pc to tame inflation, says founding Bank of England rate-setter

Willem Buiter says policy will need to be "seriously restrictive" to reach 2pc target

[ThoughtCriminal]

Police, prisons, paramedics etc, all suffer from the same problem: not getting the right people anymore. Is it pay? Is it just the quality of the pool they're drawn from has diminished?

 

Anyone see the RAF bollocks this week? Going to pause recruitment of heterosexual white men until ethnics, gays and women catch up.

 

Who are the competent people that fly the planes and keep them up there? Straight white men.

 

They even sent a memo asking for the pilot that went to the Top Gun premiere not to be a straight white male.

 

You can get away with this bullshit for so long, then one day everything just breaks.

 

My boss in the prison service once made three women form a cell extraction team when a con had made weapons and threatened to kill first officer through the door. Took me off the shield, my usual role as I'm a big lump, and said "These fuckers get paid the same as him. They can do it".

 

Two started crying. They went in and he threw them out the cell, one by one, they literally went skidding across the floor of the wing like a cartoon. Point was made, so then we went in and put him through the wall.

 

Don't ever forget that this country isnt what you think it is. The whole facade can come down at any time.

 

Off topic? Maybe, but I'd argue it applies across the board. This is a tired, creaking country and the rot runs deep. Most of us are on the Right and patriotic so it's easy to overlook things.

 

I maybe didn't frame my point that well as it pisses me off just thinking about what's been done to this country.

 

As was just said by (I think) JMD, who is confident of having all of their eggs in the UK basket? My confidence in the UK making it out the other side of this turning point (as history will judge it) diminishes by the day.

 

I lean more and more to what DB said about having exposure to foreign earning stocks. 

[Axeman123]

@sancho panza @ThoughtCriminal

Just think what replacing that pool of 20-30 years experienced people would cost, effectively priceless. Same in all areas of life. These last few years of stupid hiring will take the country decades to recover from.

[Boon]

It must be pay at end of the day. At least it is for some of the other sectors facing staff shortages.

Bennies are the culprit, because the wage rise required to tempt them would be ridiculous. And I think the initial effect would just be to tempt existing working people from other existing jobs which transfers the staff shortage elsewhere.

[DurhamBorn]

 

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I've seen shifts recently where a newly qualified Paramedic is out with a trainee  technician(technicians can give less drugs than a para) a few shifts out of training School and they've then been given a uni student who's a few shifts in.very stressful shift for the para.

No idea on the costs but trainee techs get 14 weeks at training School.

Constant churn now, when I joined 10 years seniority was nothing as there were loads of 20 or 30 years in crew room.on a night shift now, 5 years can win you the prize. 

Which is all OK until you get those 'come to jesus' moments @Harley referred to a few pages back and then they wonder why the average career now is less than 5 years.Paras get hollowed out mentally in that time if they're constantly crewed without much experience around them

Its all down to state pensions in payment and bennies.Too much tax being paid by companies and workers so the reward to the workers and the owners of capital too low.The Scottish share a prime example.The government pushed their margin so low they couldnt invest.I worked out the difference to have a much stronger industry was around £12 a month on a bill,so then £120 instead of £108.Instead government chose to hammer them and give half the country not producing anything that saving.Now of course that £12 is £300 due to those actions.All consumption ends up destructive,the key is how much investment alongside it.We tilted for 20 years to where over 50% of the population was simply consuming,not producing.Imagine if 1/3 of the welfare budger and 1/3 of the in payment state pensions had gone into energy,water etc,£50 billion a year,or £1 trillion over the 20 years.Instead it was consumed and the only place the money used was saved was into houses and foreign countries where we bought the goods.

[ThoughtCriminal]

15 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

@sancho panza @ThoughtCriminal

Just think what replacing that pool of 20-30 years experienced people would cost, effectively priceless. Same in all areas of life. These last few years of stupid hiring will take the country decades to recover from.

Yup 

 

But I don't think we will recover. The problem is that whereas once we were governed by pragmatism, the thing that propelled us to governing over a third of the earth's service, we're now governed by ideology. 

 

Energy policy, ideology. Criminal justice, ideology. NHS, ideology. Foreign policy, ideology. The list goes on.

 

The West doesnt have a God given right to rule, we got to where we are on the back of our ancestors who were pragmatists. They'd be building nuclear power stations and opening coal mines like there's no tomorrow.

 

Our governing class are STILL talking about platitudes of "Green revolution, Green jobs etc". Even after seeing where it's got Germany they persist. It's a death cult.

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, Boon said:

It must be pay at end of the day. At least it is for some of the other sectors facing staff shortages.

Bennies are the culprit, because the wage rise required to tempt them would be ridiculous. And I think the initial effect would just be to tempt existing working people from other existing jobs which transfers the staff shortage elsewhere.

Its bennies and housing mostly in relation to pay.The other big one is making men pay for it through their tax,but not be able to earn enough to be more attractive than bennies to the women.It destroys the women in the end as well.I know lots of washed out 50 year old lonely women,now low bennies,only blokes they get are ones than use and abuse.The whole system is a disaster.Benefits are a disaster for everyone,including longer term those getting them.

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Yup 

 

But I don't think we will recover. The problem is that whereas once we were governed by pragmatism, the thing that propelled us to governing over a third of the earth's service, we're now governed by ideology. 

 

Energy policy, ideology. Criminal justice, ideology. NHS, ideology. Foreign policy, ideology. The list goes on.

 

The West doesnt have a God given right to rule, we got to where we are on the back of our ancestors who were pragmatists. They'd be building nuclear power stations and opening coal mines like there's no tomorrow.

 

Our governing class are STILL talking about platitudes of "Green revolution, Green jobs etc". Even after seeing where it's got Germany they persist. It's a death cult.

 

 

Exactly.300 years of coal under my feet.We have no energy crisis,we have a politician and liberal elite crisis destroying us.They should be sinking shafts here now,but with all the regs etc it would take years.My great grandads generation were sinking drifts around here in a few months.

My home town was one of the most important in the industrial revolution,we invented the railways,first passenger train ever left the town.Now its 80% bennies.Shocking.

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Police, prisons, paramedics etc, all suffer from the same problem: not getting the right people anymore. Is it pay? Is it just the quality of the pool they're drawn from has diminished?

 

Anyone see the RAF bollocks this week? Going to pause recruitment of heterosexual white men until ethnics, gays and women catch up.

 

Who are the competent people that fly the planes and keep them up there? Straight white men.

 

They even sent a memo asking for the pilot that went to the Top Gun premiere not to be a straight white male.

 

You can get away with this bullshit for so long, then one day everything just breaks.

 

My boss in the prison service once made three women form a cell extraction team when a con had made weapons and threatened to kill first officer through the door. Took me off the shield, my usual role as I'm a big lump, and said "These fuckers get paid the same as him. They can do it".

 

Two started crying. They went in and he threw them out the cell, one by one, they literally went skidding across the floor of the wing like a cartoon. Point was made, so then we went in and put him through the wall.

 

Don't ever forget that this country isnt what you think it is. The whole facade can come down at any time.

 

Off topic? Maybe, but I'd argue it applies across the board. This is a tired, creaking country and the rot runs deep. Most of us are on the Right and patriotic so it's easy to overlook things.

 

I maybe didn't frame my point that well as it pisses me off just thinking about what's been done to this country.

 

As was just said by (I think) JMD, who is confident of having all of their eggs in the UK basket? My confidence in the UK making it out the other side of this turning point (as history will judge it) diminishes by the day.

 

I lean more and more to what DB said about having exposure to foreign earning stocks. 

The problem is future pension liability.

These chickens are now landing to roost.

Im not sure what the average public sector pension liability  is - ~40% of pay.

UKGOV has been kidding itself and paying 10% + 10% employees contributions for wayy too long, much longer (2000) when the cost of DB was clear.

The TPS is bandying figures of 40% around. The reality is even worse as that what the pension contribution would cost. However, theyve not been paying that level, so LA pension contrib are going to shoot up to pay for the shortfall.

The problem is made even worse as there  are a very large number of females on the public sector payroll. typically these cost ~20% more than blokes - that extra ~5 years life expectancy is v expensive.

The actual worse, biggest shortfall is female coppers - pension contribution needs to be around 100% of salary.

The rapid increase and rise to 67 for male + female SRA pension by Gidiot was a quick response to the really terrible figures/projection that were rolling in, after that one eyed cretin ignored them for 16 years.

 

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

Pound taking a battering today. I wonder how far it can fall over the coming months?

[Chewing Grass]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly.300 years of coal under my feet.We have no energy crisis,we have a politician and liberal elite crisis destroying us.They should be sinking shafts here now,but with all the regs etc it would take years.My great grandads generation were sinking drifts around here in a few months.

My home town was one of the most important in the industrial revolution,we invented the railways,first passenger train ever left the town.Now its 80% bennies.Shocking.

I'm sat next to a 2000MW coal station that was perfectly serviceable when they shut it down 18 months ago, it isn't now.

If they hadn't made that stupid globo-politicised decision the lights probably wouldn't go out this winter and electricity bills would be 5% lower.

[ThoughtCriminal]

23 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

Its all down to state pensions in payment and bennies.Too much tax being paid by companies and workers so the reward to the workers and the owners of capital too low.The Scottish share a prime example.The government pushed their margin so low they couldnt invest.I worked out the difference to have a much stronger industry was around £12 a month on a bill,so then £120 instead of £108.Instead government chose to hammer them and give half the country not producing anything that saving.Now of course that £12 is £300 due to those actions.All consumption ends up destructive,the key is how much investment alongside it.We tilted for 20 years to where over 50% of the population was simply consuming,not producing.Imagine if 1/3 of the welfare budger and 1/3 of the in payment state pensions had gone into energy,water etc,£50 billion a year,or £1 trillion over the 20 years.Instead it was consumed and the only place the money used was saved was into house and foreign countries where we bought the goods.

I'd like this 100 times if I could.

 

We've lived on credit for too long and become so used to it that we think we can go on borrowing from the future and Chinese etc labour.

 

That's coming to an end now.

 

Sometimes I think that we on here, for all that we're intelligent, forget that barely anyone thinks the way we do. That's why I'm so pessimistic.

[Jay]

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly.300 years of coal under my feet.We have no energy crisis,we have a politician and liberal elite crisis destroying us.They should be sinking shafts here now,but with all the regs etc it would take years.My great grandads generation were sinking drifts around here in a few months.

My home town was one of the most important in the industrial revolution,we invented the railways,first passenger train ever left the town.Now its 80% bennies.Shocking.

I hope you are exaggerating..80% ..but probably not..you talk of collapse….would collapse mean a within Britain or would you classify the break up of Britain as a collapse..I think cable was 1.7 during the last referendum.. would make sense for the scots to try again..the possibility of independent Scotland seem to be increasing imo especially as I think we get to deflation..even the welsh go there own..that for me would a collapse and not for others…that would mean England gets the bulk of the problems economically.. would have no choice but to cut benefits, pensions etc..be lucky..

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I'd like this 100 times if I could.

 

We've lived on credit for too long and become so used to it that we think we can go on borrowing from the future and Chinese etc labour.

 

That's coming to an end now.

 

Sometimes I think that we on here, for all that we're intelligent, forget that barely anyone thinks the way we do. That's why I'm so pessimistic.

They could have ended the Covid nonsense swiftly if they wanted and we are now seeing the same thing with this climate change bullshit.

We are governed by psychopaths. 

[Axeman123]

8 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Pound taking a battering today. I wonder how far it can fall over the coming months?

We have to hope there is a line in the sand already drawn for an emergency rate rise. Other posters have previously posted that the chart looks set for a big drop, if it fell much below (iirc) 1.20usd.

Today could be the day, one way or the other.

[spygirl]

10 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Pound taking a battering today. I wonder how far it can fall over the coming months?

It falling as the reality of how far behind the BoE on raising IR is coming more clear.

Cretins at the BoE need to be looking at a couple of 1% rises, just to get the market back on their side/surprise them.

 

 

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, spygirl said:

It falling as the reality of how far behind the BoE on raising IR is coming more clear.

Cretins at the BoE need to be looking at a couple of 1% rises, just to get the market back on their side/surprise them.

Luke Gromen's words spring to mind; something like emerging market crisis requires emerging market solutions. The BoE need to actively burn cable shorters through rate rise warfare, and cultivate a culture of intimidation through unpredictable snap rate rises.

[feed]

Clock is ticking. 

Berlin should negotiate gas with Russia to secure supply - official

https://breakingthenews.net/Article/Berlin-should-negotiate-gas-with-Russia-to-secure-supply-official/58469233

Bundestag Chairman of the Committee on Climate Protection and Energy Klaus Ernst (pictured) underscored on Friday that it is "wise" for Germany to negotiate with Russia to secure the country's gas supply which would effectively lower the prices.

"Leading politicians in the ruling parties also join my position," stressed Ernst on his Twitter account, adding that such a shift toward Berlin-Moscow dialogue would also enable the nation to avoid the effects of its own sanctions against Russia.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz earlier said that the federal government plans to temporarily lower the sales tax on gas to 7% for its consumers, while the country prepares to connect liquefied natural gas (LNG) floating terminals in Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbuettel to the gas network.

[spygirl]

9 minutes ago, Jay said:

I hope you are exaggerating..80% ..but probably not..you talk of collapse….would collapse mean a within Britain or would you classify the break up of Britain as a collapse..I think cable was 1.7 during the last referendum.. would make sense for the scots to try again..the possibility of independent Scotland seem to be increasing imo especially as I think we get to deflation..even the welsh go there own..that for me would a collapse and not for others…that would mean England gets the bulk of the problems economically.. would have no choice but to cut benefits, pensions etc..be lucky..

https://www.statista.com/statistics/382858/uk-state-benefits-by-region/

Official 60%.

However ...

With benefits theres also a large number of public sector employment - to 'do stuff for people on benefits.

2 scum family support 1 social worker.

 

 

[marceau]

52 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

@sancho panza @ThoughtCriminal

Just think what replacing that pool of 20-30 years experienced people would cost, effectively priceless. Same in all areas of life. These last few years of stupid hiring will take the country decades to recover from.

More likely we won't recover from it at all. People aren't robots. They're not interchangable, reprogrammable or unemotional. For some reason the govt seems to think they are and just a few changes to a policy or process can get things back on track. They're very, very wrong.

Imo this is the real killer we face further down the line. A govt in trouble, falling back to pull on old forgotten levers, and finding they no longer work. You can't make a large UK city do the things it could do during the 1970s, let alone WW2, the people there are different now. It'll be the same with reshoring, infrastructure renewal etc. For all our millions in population growth there just isn't enough human clay.

[spygirl]

12 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

They could have ended the Covid nonsense swiftly if they wanted and we are now seeing the same thing with this climate change bullshit.

We are governed by psychopaths. 

No.

We have a very large governance sector which just fail to govern.

Governments need to make decisions.

 The more people a government employ, the slower n worse the decisions are.

There was this crap on the radio -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62598309

The NHS Confederation said the UK was facing a "humanitarian crisis".

A large part of the fix is - remove access to benefit s to migrant.s

Poof! ~5m cold brown n black people will fuck off home

Its down to the lobbying and bling eye turning in the public sector that so many migrants are drawing down vast sums from UK tax payers.

 

 

[spygirl]

3 minutes ago, marceau said:

More likely we won't recover from it at all. People aren't robots. They're not interchangable, reprogrammable or unemotional. For some reason the govt seems to think they are and just a few changes to a policy or process can get things back on track. They're very, very wrong.

Imo this is the real killer we face further down the line. A govt in trouble, falling back to pull on old forgotten levers, and finding they no longer work. You can't make a large UK city do the things it could do during the 1970s, let alone WW2, the people there are different now. It'll be the same with reshoring, infrastructure renewal etc. For all our millions in population growth there just isn't enough human clay.

No, people adapt.

Just slash benefits and theyll adapt.

 

[marceau]

7 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Luke Gromen's words spring to mind; something like emerging market crisis requires emerging market solutions. The BoE need to actively burn cable shorters through rate rise warfare, and cultivate a culture of intimidation through unpredictable snap rate rises.

The longer they lag reality, the more likely it'll require shock treatment to solve. Just the last few months of rate stupidity has made the hole bigger than it needed to be.