Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[M S E Refugee]

2 minutes ago, Errol said:

Simple question to these people - do they support the Western sanctions and attacks on Russia? If yes, then I have zero sympathy for their plight. They must suffer the consequences of their choices.

I will point this out to anyone I work with who supports the Russian sanctions, Lockdowns or the Climate change bullshit.

Virtue signalling or first level thinking is detrimental to everyone in society.

[CannonFodder]

9 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Watch what they do an ignore what they say. Putin's "roubles for gas" policy continues to pay dividends:

Mind boggling as Poland and Baltics talking about banning russian tourists - a soft way of getting roubles.

Now they need to export more stuff that could feed a war machine ( industrial equipment and plastics) to make up the difference.

Small business owners in tourism in these countries are stuffed.

[feed]

https://www.teletrader.com/saudi-aramco-s-q2-net-income-surges-90-yoy-to-48-4b/news/details/58437810?internal=1

Saudi Aramco's Q2 net income surges 90% YoY to $48.4B

The Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco) announced on Sunday its net income in the second quarter of the fiscal year 2022 saw an annual increase of 90% to reach $48.4 billion. The company's positive result was mainly due to higher crude oil prices and volumes sold.

The company's free cash flow surged by 53% to $34.6 billion in the second quarter, while capital expenditure rose by 25% to $9.4 billion compared to the same period in 2021. Cash flow from operating activities stood at $44.0 billion. Finally, Saudi Aramco declared a dividend of $18.8 billion to be paid in the third quarter.

"While global market volatility and economic uncertainty remain, events during the first half of this year support our view that ongoing investment in our industry is essential — both to help ensure markets remain well supplied and to facilitate an orderly energy transition," said Aramco President & CEO Amin H. Nasser commenting on the results.

 

[feed]

18 minutes ago, Errol said:

Simple question to these people - do they support the Western sanctions and attacks on Russia? If yes, then I have zero sympathy for their plight. They must suffer the consequences of their choices.

The silence in the media on the correlation between the sanctions and energy pricing, is deafening. 

[CannonFodder]

 

Which one of you is this?

[Harley]

30 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Virtue signalling or first level thinking is detrimental to everyone in society.

Nice.  Can I borrow that one please? 

PS:  They'll probably think it's a compliment!

[Bobthebuilder]

8 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

I work in a very tall office building in London (I’m not going to say where ) the cranes on the skyline have definitely reduced in number from years past.

Lots of half built construction slowing right down and projects never going to be finished due to Chinese money drying up.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-15/london-property-news-chinese-developers-are-retreating-from-the-u-k-capital#xj4y7vzkg

 

My neighbor who is now painting that flat, normally works as a crane operator.

[Democorruptcy]

Have we had that Bill Bonner chap being very unahppy about climate change policies and suggesting oil is going to $500 a barrel in this cycle? The video I saw went all salesy buy my stuff for $49 towards the end.

America's Nightmare Winter

 

 

 

[Harley]

22 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Have we had that Bill Bonner chap being very unahppy about climate change policies and suggesting oil is going to $500 a barrel in this cycle? The video I saw went all salesy buy my stuff for $49 towards the end.

America's Nightmare Winter

 

 

 

I met Mr Bonner once and liked him.  Self effacing....and tall!  A bit Max Hedroom.  Surprised he's still going (a bit).  But yes, the whole business he built seemed quite salesy in at least parts.  Still, I enjoy his writings despite him telling me there were better things I could be doing with my life! 

[Animal Spirits]

 

UK’s debt and welfare payments bill set to soar by more than £50bn

The findings forecast that debt service costs are likely to almost double next year from £50bn to £95bn because £500bn of the UK’s public debt is linked to the consumer price index.

That bill falls as inflation comes down, but is replaced by higher social security benefits, which are also linked to prices, and are set to be £23bn higher every year by the time of the next election.

These payments will leave the new Tory leader hoping that tax revenues remain strong, helped by high inflation, at a time when the BoE thinks the economy will slide into recession.

https://archive.ph/QwlbQ

[Lightly Toasted]

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I think Frances O'Grady doesn't realise we are skint like my old boss.

“No one should struggle to get by in one of the richest countries in the world,” TUC general secretary Frances O’Grady said, adding: “But up and down the country, millions of families are being pushed to the brink by eyewatering energy bills. With prices set to skyrocket even further, it’s time to say enough is enough.”

She went on to stress that “Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak need to wake up to the size of this crisis. This requires a pandemic-scale intervention.”

Leftists and their clients keep using that phrase, it's part of the bot programming from which entitlement flows. It's deep-rooted, almost part of the national identity.

Unacknowledged problems cannot be solved. If you're already among the richest in your peer group, why should you have to work/invest to improve your situation further?

[M S E Refugee]

Berlin fails to secure LNG imports from Gulf nation – media https://www.rt.com/business/560793-germany-qatar-lng-supplies/

[Virgil Caine]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

What it shows though is how all wealth can easily be taken,even if you use as little as you can its still a whack with the standing charges,those should be scrapped of course a huge scam.£5k energy bills are horrific for people and wont stand for long,government will have to cover them down to £2.5k i suspect maximum.Of course the problem lies 100% at the polos feet.My dad made an interesting point how energy companies mostly public listed kept getting hammered by government,yet water companies mostly owned by a few elites were allowed to fleece massive dividends with zero investment.Obvious where the back handers and corruption are.

Of course its very very simple why we are here.Massive immigration living of whitey and massive welfare spending consuming but not producing.Unless they tackle those two things hard and then re-build production its a spiral that leads to currency collapse.

British energy companies massively over invested in gas as an electrical generation source as it was the cheapest option. The government should have spotted the risk and mandated a much more diverse mix using planning laws if necessary. Now the taxpayer is probably going to end up subsidising the building of nuclear and even coal plants to redress the imbalance. Anyway Truss is right that handouts are not going to fix the problem. The best solution is to use what money is available to address the supply side issue. In the interim the best way to keep costs down and to put downward pressure on prices is to ration use which to me means mandating  rolling 3 hour power cuts a couple of times a day as in the 1970s. The problem is no politicians now have the guts to take that sort of decision. As for water it is a natural monopoly and should never have been privatised.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Animal Spirits said:

 

UK’s debt and welfare payments bill set to soar by more than £50bn

The findings forecast that debt service costs are likely to almost double next year from £50bn to £95bn because £500bn of the UK’s public debt is linked to the consumer price index.

That bill falls as inflation comes down, but is replaced by higher social security benefits, which are also linked to prices, and are set to be £23bn higher every year by the time of the next election.

These payments will leave the new Tory leader hoping that tax revenues remain strong, helped by high inflation, at a time when the BoE thinks the economy will slide into recession.

https://archive.ph/QwlbQ

That and this will ensure systemic collapse after private assets are all stolen.Inflation is moving all private sector wealth to government and those on its tit,only question from the macro is will it change or go to conclusion.

https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/DP103_Great-British-Rake-Off_web.pdf

In the NHS Pension Scheme in 2020-21, contributions from employees were 9.8% of salary (this is a figure recognisable by millions of employees from their payslips); contributions from the employer were 20.6% of salary, so the total contributions in 2020-21 were 9.8% + 20.6% = 30.4% of salary. But the current service cost for 2020-21 was 62.2%! This means that on average every NHS employee is getting 62.2% of salary worth of pension (i.e. a fabulously generous pension) at a cost of only 30.4%, of which he or she only pays 9.8% out of his/her salary. It also means that the taxpayer (to be more exact, future taxpayers) have no idea that the pensions 13 £17 billion = [(62.2%-30.4%) x £53.3 billion]. £53.3 billion is the NHS Payroll based on Table G. 20 promised by the Treasury have only been half accounted for, and indeed both the accounted-for half and the unaccounted-for half will have to be paid by them – future taxpayers

[M S E Refugee]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

That and this will ensure systemic collapse after private assets are all stolen.Inflation is moving all private sector wealth to government and those on its tit,only question from the macro is will it change or go to conclusion.

https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/DP103_Great-British-Rake-Off_web.pdf

In the NHS Pension Scheme in 2020-21, contributions from employees were 9.8% of salary (this is a figure recognisable by millions of employees from their payslips); contributions from the employer were 20.6% of salary, so the total contributions in 2020-21 were 9.8% + 20.6% = 30.4% of salary. But the current service cost for 2020-21 was 62.2%! This means that on average every NHS employee is getting 62.2% of salary worth of pension (i.e. a fabulously generous pension) at a cost of only 30.4%, of which he or she only pays 9.8% out of his/her salary. It also means that the taxpayer (to be more exact, future taxpayers) have no idea that the pensions 13 £17 billion = [(62.2%-30.4%) x £53.3 billion]. £53.3 billion is the NHS Payroll based on Table G. 20 promised by the Treasury have only been half accounted for, and indeed both the accounted-for half and the unaccounted-for half will have to be paid by them – future taxpayers

The NHS is the 8th biggest employer in the World with 1.7 million employees.

Fucking mind-boggling!

[Virgil Caine]

13 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

The NHS is the 8th biggest employer in the World with 1.7 million employees.

Fucking mind-boggling!

It is crazy. They employ three times as many people as all the other government departments put together. There is an NHS worker for every 30 people of working age and one for every 60 people in the general population. It is almost guaranteed there is one on your street yet you will struggle to get into a GP surgery or a hospital. What are they all doing? 

Arm the NHS and they would be one of the world largest military forces.

[Noallegiance]

4 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

 

She went on to stress that “Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak need to wake up to the size of this crisis. This requires a pandemic-scale intervention.”

At what stage do the interventionist policies cease? No matter how bad they make things, they just keep on coming.

[DoINeedOne]

On 13/08/2022 at 14:24, JMD said:

I do confess to having a bias toward royalty companies and own some in a few different sectors.

Below is Horizon Kinetics latest quarterly review. Interesting presentation between 00:56mins - 1:03mins where HK put the case that gold royalty companies do far better than gold mining companies even in times of long term inflation. They don't hold an entirely contrarian view to the thread on PMs, but HK view gold mainly as a dollar hedge. Would be interested to hear others thoughts.

(HK are, refreshingly imo 'old school', so please excuse their slightly unpolished delivery. I like them because they are very focused on leveraging the inflation cycle, and were early critics of financialisation, zombie companies, market etf's, etc. If interested in other examples of royalty companies watch from 56mins to end)

https://vimeo.com/731939103/55d294a535

Thanks, Just sat and watch that with a coffee the royalties companies are very interesting 

also this part about the miners 

[JMD]

5 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

"So cut by 20% or we're fucked this year, but long-term we're completely fucked anyway".

 

Awesome 

I had been thinking and fearing the same for months (but last few days been digging around). The practicalities and challenges of changing power infrastructure are great - but (as ever!) there is more going on here... For example looks like Germany's own pivot back to coal started some time ago...

If the below article is accurate (contains chart from federal statistical office of Germany), it shows clearly not only how unachievable the emission reduction targets always were for industrialised nations (we all guessed as much I know, but here is some factual evidence), but also how hypocritical countries like Germany really are. I mean if UK electricity generation was still coming from 30% coal and this figure was increasing, the media would tear the government to shreds - yet all we heard was how great Europe (exception Poland) was!                            

Thing is German reliance on coal to generate its electricity looked like was increasing even before the Ukraine war had even begun!   

                https://www.dw.com/en/coal-and-fossil-fuel-share-of-german-electricity-rises-in-3q/a-60114010

[Red Debt Redemption]

17 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Anecdotal. Trade work in London is drying up, have a neighbor whos sleeping on site 20 miles from home painting a flat????????????

This is what I've been waiting for, tradie twats fucking people around with all the coof money slooshing about. 

Ahahaha 

 

14 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I worked there for 10 years at GSK,fantastic around here.I take it you went over the tops through Middleton in Teesdale and over to Alston.If you drove past Brampton back in Cumbria i had a few very interesting weekends staying in The Howard Arms with a sales manager for Greggs from Glasgow, 

B6277 great road for getting a shift on.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

 

 

So many businesses will be going under over winter and we will be seeing more and more of these can't even imagine trying to run something like a pub, hotel or anything with things you can just switch off with these kinda bills

'Mama Mia!!' That's awful.

  ...but on tangent and being somewhat irrelevant perhaps, but can I ask why on the bill he holds up, has the euro figure total got a dot where a comma should be, and a comma where a dot should be?  The 'European way' I guess, and bet was only a matter of time before such crazyness was forced upon us over here. I think every passing day shows how close to the wire our Great Brexit Escape was!! 

[feed]

Luke Gromen  

 

[JMD]

5 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I will point this out to anyone I work with who supports the Russian sanctions, Lockdowns or the Climate change bullshit.

Virtue signalling or first level thinking is detrimental to everyone in society.

Yes very damaging to society. But the whole virtue signalling/pc thing permeates far deeper (as a new mode of thing and as a religion) than many think - as covered in new book 'The New Puritans' by Andrew Doyle. (I haven't read it yet but plan to)

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

4 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

 

Which one of you is this?

 

marvelous MARVELOUS...keep 'em coming!

 

With the current heat & drought I've now used up all my water from the numerous water butts I have.

 

Here's my latest scheme: the ULTIMATE skinflintery OR am I just SCRAPING the Barrel?!

 

My tight-wad neighbour drives to a nearby spring/water outlet to refill his, but fukit i'm not using my EXPENSIVE petrol for that!

 

There's an allotment a few minutes from me, yep you guessed it they have FREE water, so armed with my trolley and free 20 liter water containers that someone gave me at the rubbish-tip last year,(i knew they would come in handy!)

 

As I'm up at 1st light in summer, I decided to do a trip, as ya can't in the daytime as the neighbours would see what ya doing!

 

Anyway I was doing this every other day, until yesterday when my tight-wad neighbour saw me, he even said good-morning to me! ffs talk about embarrassment or what!!!

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

I wonder when this particular penny drop moment is going to hit the mainstream.