Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

Ukrainian dead/MIA are near to 200,000 now. By refusing to surrender, Zelensky is simply sending his men to the slaughter. The Russians/DPR/LPR will carry on at their own pace and kill them all if necessary. 

Zelensky is clearly hopelessly out of his depth.

Zel is a stooge.  His masters are out of their depth and/or evil, as we are beginning to see in many areas.

Russia is called a Bear for a reason.  They really have a very high pain threshold once roused.  Your best weapons against them is a bit of respect and a bottle of vodka.  Boris sure missed his Churchillian moment.

Bringing my things back on topic, that article was good in putting an alternative scenario but as a standalone piece, riddled with nonsense.  Tiresome MSM stuff as usual.

[harp]

11 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Personally, I would have invested the £43k and used the divis to go on holiday.

I have had a couple of transporters and a caddy over the last decade or , for business use. No end of trouble with them IME, Diesel gate compensation was the only bonus really. I do hope they have got more reliable now.

(I am becoming obsessed with divis).

I’m obsessed with divis too. That’s why I sold most my crypto last year. Besides , divis on £43k say around 6% is around £2.5k pa. That would buy me barely one week holiday. Happy with my decision, I think 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

It just shows how captured by the MIC our governments are, that the above is seen as a diss. Putin is getting it done with the lowest tier kit needed, and probably glad to clear out some crap from inventory in the process. The fact he is winning while doing so is neatly glossed over, showing that the real goal of western war is to destroy the highest priced inventory possible.

Plus er yea, even if these APCs are old, so what?  So typically boring of the MSM.  Suggest something and leave it there.  Nudge, nudge, wink, wink. Include a persuasive factual assessment of APC developments in the last 70 years or take it with you on the way out.  Or, given the earlier reference to Douglas Adams, "the statement hung in the air the same way bricks don't"!

[JMD]

I do confess to having a bias toward royalty companies and own some in a few different sectors.

Below is Horizon Kinetics latest quarterly review. Interesting presentation between 00:56mins - 1:03mins where HK put the case that gold royalty companies do far better than gold mining companies even in times of long term inflation. They don't hold an entirely contrarian view to the thread on PMs, but HK view gold mainly as a dollar hedge. Would be interested to hear others thoughts.

(HK are, refreshingly imo 'old school', so please excuse their slightly unpolished delivery. I like them because they are very focused on leveraging the inflation cycle, and were early critics of financialisation, zombie companies, market etf's, etc. If interested in other examples of royalty companies watch from 56mins to end)

https://vimeo.com/731939103/55d294a535

[Harley]

29 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

(I am becoming obsessed with divis).

Indeed.  I saw another load of FTSE companies went ex div on 11 Aug22.  I was a bit annoyed I had sold down RIO earlier.  I've learnt to keep an eye out and maybe add a temporary ladder around ex div time, assuming I think it'll not get trashed by any price fall.  I added a ladder to a few paying out on 18 Aug22.  I'm also looking for any trends in share prices around the ex div date.  As mentioned previously, it's not always the case the price simply falls/rises and there seems to be a bit of a longer dance in price a few weeks around the ex div date.  Live and learn.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, honkydonkey said:

Houses will be empty and people living in the warm vans on the drive. 

Sounds a bit like 'The Lady in the Van' by Alan Bennett... part true story apparently!

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Don't forget the oil refiners?

I'm specifically looking at the US refiners, 45 years since last one built there apparently. Plus if European energy costs remain high compared to the far lower US energy input costs for their own industrial sector, surely must result in massive competitive advantage. 

 

Ref the above energy costs. I'm actually wondering, and concerned investment wise, how companies like BASF and Evonik will successfully sell their products internationally and competitively. Domestically, Germany will I guess support. But longer term - will it result in a panic 'Fortress Europe' economic model?

 @DurhamBornsaid recently that he was buying Evonik, I wonder if he has thoughts about the increased energy costs for Europe/EU industry in general?

These guys are so big they can do deals themselves,Evonik is firing up its own coal fired powe station.They also have plants in other countries BASF is huge in Asian.Hydrogen will be the big fuel in time,i still think most cars will end up hydrogen even though nobody seems to think so at the moment.At Cummins we has our best guys working with Hyundai on hydrogen,then a 2nd lower team on electric.Obvious the electric were insurance,but hydrogen was the main focus.I also bought some of a company called Chemours Co (CC) during the covid crash,its trebled since,but i only bought a small holding and was wanting to add more but never got the chance to add.They make a product called Nafion we were using in the fuel cells (i worked in Emission Solutions for Cummins).

[Harley]

Many thanks to those offering twitter, etc links.  Maybe this one is also worth having if Lizzy gets the job: @johnredwood.

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, feed said:

and i don't see how anyone would want to be the third PM in one term a year ahead of an election when the government is so unpopular it needs a third PM. Unless Rishi really is that dumb.  If they do that, then they really want to lose. 

but frankly i can't see how anyone can predictions on the next GE now.  

We've the midterms and whatever shenanigans that brings along with a potential FED pivot, Xi's third term and Russia / Ukraine all playing out, over the next 3 to 6 months.  Those will impact the direction of British politics more than anything Truss does.  

Truss will win the next election easily if she sticks to the policies she states.If she just stopped the boats and returned a load she would win.The public sense something is badly badly wrong and are desperate for tough policies.Crucial to her is getting the right people in her cabinet.Its a shame our country isnt big enough to split like India and Pakistan and send the lefties to one half.The Tories have been a disaster as well as the last Labour government mainly because they have moved to the left.Most of the Red Wall voters i know who moved from Labour at the last election would scrap bennies and machine gun the invaders in the channel.Where the media get the idea they want more of both i dont know.

[Bobthebuilder]

15 minutes ago, Harley said:

I was a bit annoyed I had sold down RIO earlier.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/r/rio-tinto-plc-ordinary-10p

That is a whopper of a divi, if accurate.

Also, a big cliff on the morning of the 11th.

Interesting stuff, thanks.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I just don't see the current energy prices as sustainable, and only Russia can provide releif. Sooner or later the EU is going to have to make some kind of dirty deal and pivot to a more ambiguous alignment IMO, akin to Turkey. There are no other alternatives for the decade ahead. LNG? nowhere near the capacity, long lead-times to add more. SMRs? lead-time. A return to medieval living standards? Le Penn et al will rise.

Don't get me wrong, the EU will never openly align with BRICS or renounce its NATO alignment. I would however expect to see strategic relaxation and non-enforcement of sanctions in tandem with the same old rhatoric. Watch what they do and ignore what they say. We are already seeing this with the pipeline turbine etc.

For sure I agree with your main point, but I still see big disparity in price. After all Europe has missed the cheap longterm gas contract it could have done with Russia. At same time US energy is nominally cheaper, it's domesticly produced meaning no added transport costs, and far less taxed.

Thing is I'm assuming US will be even more agrresive on its cost cutting going forward if it wants to onshore it's own industries, and so wonder how this will play out In competition with Europe...  plus should UK become part of NAFTA quick sharp?!

[feed]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Truss will win the next election easily if she sticks to the policies she states.If she just stopped the boats and returned a load she would win.The public sense something is badly badly wrong and are desperate for tough policies.Crucial to her is getting the right people in her cabinet.Its a shame our country isnt big enough to split like India and Pakistan and send the lefties to one half.The Tories have been a disaster as well as the last Labour government mainly because they have moved to the left.Most of the Red Wall voters i know who moved from Labour at the last election would scrap bennies and machine gun the invaders in the channel.Where the media get the idea they want more of both i dont know.

They're slaves to the macro.  

As much as we talk about the failure of the British political system, their options have been limited for the last 20+ years by Greenspans actions post 9/11 and dot com bust, followed by the GFC.  The fear of a deflationary collapse. real or imaginary.    

The left seem to be under the impression that giving money to those that spend it to shore up velocity was something else.  Of course those vested in the continuation will fight the change, but it's inevitable.  We’re in the end of a 40 year cycle transition.  And transitional places and spaces are always the most dangerous.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Have you not been outside today?

We don't need Putin's energy look how much Solar Power we are producing.

♫ Who do think you think you are kidding Mr Putler♫

Dad's Army, Allo Allo...  When will someone be brave enough to make a gentle comedy about the brutish and inept USSR?        ...However maybe that opportunity is now missed if we are now entering a new Cold War II? 

[Harley]

18 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/r/rio-tinto-plc-ordinary-10p

That is a whopper of a divi, if accurate.

Also, a big cliff on the morning of the 11th.

Interesting stuff, thanks.

It's the candle on the 5 Aug22, especially the HA candle, that's the humdinger.  Drifting higher atm but not much conviction, as that candle suggests.  Like several others.  Glad you pointed out the cliff on 11 Aug22.  Maybe I need to day trade these ones or use some limit orders.  I could have paid for a year's heating oil there!

[M S E Refugee]

11 minutes ago, JMD said:

Dad's Army, Allo Allo...  When will someone be brave enough to make a gentle comedy about the brutish and inept USSR?        ...However maybe that opportunity is now missed if we are now entering a new Cold War II? 

At the moment comedy is pretty much dead and has been for quite a few years.

[Bobthebuilder]

23 minutes ago, Harley said:

It's the candle on the 5 Aug22, especially the HA candle, that's the humdinger.  Drifting higher atm but not much conviction, as that candle suggests.  Like several others.  Glad you pointed out the cliff on 11 Aug22.  Maybe I need to day trade these ones or use some limit orders.  I could have paid for a year's heating oil there!

I bought some FRES earlier this year, similar roller-coaster price wise. Been thinking of attempting to trade it between 6.50-7.50. might try some RIO also.

I need to start trying a bit of trading, been very lazy on this thread so far regarding that.

But then again, look at those lovely divis, whopper with cheese and bacon.

[M S E Refugee]

43 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Truss will win the next election easily if she sticks to the policies she states.If she just stopped the boats and returned a load she would win.The public sense something is badly badly wrong and are desperate for tough policies.Crucial to her is getting the right people in her cabinet.Its a shame our country isnt big enough to split like India and Pakistan and send the lefties to one half.The Tories have been a disaster as well as the last Labour government mainly because they have moved to the left.Most of the Red Wall voters i know who moved from Labour at the last election would scrap bennies and machine gun the invaders in the channel.Where the media get the idea they want more of both i dont know.

We got stuck on the A66 yesterday so I decided to take a detour over the Peninines back to Cumbria and passed through your neck of the woods.

I have never been to Barnard Castle before and I have to say it is stunning, it took ages to get back home but it was a very enjoyable drive home.

[JMD]

49 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

These guys are so big they can do deals themselves,Evonik is firing up its own coal fired powe station.They also have plants in other countries BASF is huge in Asian.Hydrogen will be the big fuel in time,i still think most cars will end up hydrogen even though nobody seems to think so at the moment.At Cummins we has our best guys working with Hyundai on hydrogen,then a 2nd lower team on electric.Obvious the electric were insurance,but hydrogen was the main focus.I also bought some of a company called Chemours Co (CC) during the covid crash,its trebled since,but i only bought a small holding and was wanting to add more but never got the chance to add.They make a product called Nafion we were using in the fuel cells (i worked in Emission Solutions for Cummins).

Thanks DB. Many good points you make there. My fixed energy deal runs out next March, and I think all the prospects of frighteningly high prices are negatively biasing my thought processes!?!

 I'd had heard of the industrial energy switch occuring (from gas to coal), but did think this might be impractical for most factories, etc? Confess I am pretty ignorant about this important topic. Maybe someone (technical?) could post more info about the coal energy switch - in terms of how successful it could be for Europe, plus also how long such a change could/would take?

[Axeman123]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

For sure I agree with your main point, but I still see big disparity in price. After all Europe has missed the cheap longterm gas contract it could have done with Russia. At same time US energy is nominally cheaper, it's domesticly produced meaning no added transport costs, and far less taxed.

Thing is I'm assuming US will be even more agrresive on its cost cutting going forward if it wants to onshore it's own industries, and so wonder how this will play out In competition with Europe...  plus should UK become part of NAFTA quick sharp?!

I bolded the IMO important part, the USA is now a rival to Europe. Hobbling them with uncompetitive energy prices stops American companies putting manufacturing there that has been pulled back from Asia.

I would expect NAFTA to be strictly limited to the geographic Americas, and Mexico/the isthmus countries/Colombia to pick up any low wage stuff that the USA doesn't want within it's own borders.

[Ma2]

4 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

Indeed any army that can make hypersonic missiles from washing machines and fridges would be unstoppable

Sounds like they might have hired The A Team 

[ThoughtCriminal]

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

 

What a fucking legend Putin is.

[Loki]

10 hours ago, RJT1979 said:

 

 

 

YES

[Bobthebuilder]

9 minutes ago, Loki said:

YES

They did a right shit job anyway, best rip it out and start again.

Anecdotal. Trade work in London is drying up, have a neighbor whos sleeping on site 20 miles from home painting a flat????????????

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Loki said:

YES

It happens alot, sometimes on a small scale, like when you  don't get paid for fitting front door locks, getting shafted and the only recourse is to drop the whole bunch of keys ( 15 sets)  into the river, all 3 for the set, after sneaking  back on site and locking the doors. Should have paid up instead of  scamming bloke. 

It is against the law to do damage blah blah blah. Fuck em. Don't let em finish the job, then say you ain't happy ( never had intent to pay or knew they couldn't afford it). 

[Loki]

13 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

They did a right shit job anyway, best rip it out and start again.

Anecdotal. Trade work in London is drying up, have a neighbor whos sleeping on site 20 miles from home painting a flat????????????

I don't go anywhere near that shithole anymore unless it's made extremely worth my while