Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[ThoughtCriminal]

10 minutes ago, AWW said:

If you're buying gold and silver UK coins, always go for current limited editions (like Queens beasts)  even if you don't really like the designs. The premium over plain old Brits isn't usually very much at all, but it soon increases when they stop being minted.

Not a lot in stock anywhere it seems. I suppose more and more minds are turning to gold and silver given the direction of travel

[DoINeedOne]

 

[sancho panza]

14 hours ago, Viceroy said:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-clarification/

 

Gold will NOT rally due to debt levels, QE, or any other BS scenario. Gold rallies due to CONFIDENCE collapsing. This is what we are dealing with the failure of central banks and the collapse in Keynesian Economics. This is why they are endorsing the Great Reset because CBs cannot raise interest rates and they have destroyed the bond market in Europe while wiping out their pension funds because they also decreed these funds MUST invest in government debt. They have destroyed the economy and that is why they are using COVID as a military tactic.
Therefore, what I am saying about gold is that it rises when CONFIDENCE collapses, not the rise and fall of QE and interest rates in the normal course of business. We must look to the general public. When they wake up and realize that there is no way this COVID nonsense will ever end because they are deliberately using it to seize the economy and transform it into this Great Reset where governments will no longer borrow money – just print. They intent to default on all public debt and replace even pensions with Guaranteed Basic Income. They are moving toward these end goals step by step so the people do not realize what is taking place.



 

Thanks for that Viceroy.Appreciate the time you've put in to enlighten us.Must say I think he's an amazing historian and analyst.I remember him writing a decade agao or so about how we're going to see the a crisis in Big Govt and a return longer term to smaller nations-this was pre Brexit.

He's also right above,they have destroyed the bond market which has been the root of all their spending and wealth for the last forty years.They're planning a Great reset but the Great Reset might jsut be the end of their time in power.

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Hancock said:

This issue with Armstrong is he is the biggest bullshitter out of all the bloggers, twitter people and is constantly wrong.

Chinas neighbour Kazakhstan has more than enough unused land to feed the Chinese. 

I wouldn't time trades of him but as a historian and reader of teh bigger pciture,he's up there with the best.,

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

Viceroy, thanks for doing that summary. I will read some of those links as I'd like to understand more of Armstrong's hypothesis. However, one big part of his thesis jumps out at me, I am maybe oversimplifying - but he says socialism will die after 2032... So does he expect authoritarianism to continue afterwards, maybe in the form of 'right wing'?  Or is he predicting total breakdown and world anarchy?... Which I guess would kind of fit with his other predictions of national structural breakups and then reforming of countries including the USA?

Socialism is based on Big Govt across countries,he's predicting that will unwind ie possible breakdown of USA/EU etc,and also a breakdown in the economics of scoialism ie welfare state/pensions etc.I don't think that fits the definiton of anarchy

[belfastchild]

18 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv got a will trust set up for him and his sisters  if i die and they are married they can leave in trust then if a divorce etc they dont lose anything.Trusts are wonderful things.

Just a quick word of warning about trusts from my own experience.
I set one up about 20 years ago for my nephews and nieces after I got ill. Just in case I was ever stupid enough to get married or someone try to take me for a fortune...
Anyway solictor (london based) set it up with bank of Ireland commercial which had been someone else before that.
They withdrew from the market but were taken over by the post office I think, anyway one day I just got a cheque in the post, no more trust.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Harley said:

Cheers.  Some excellent political economics.  I've chickened out of subscribing given the cost but maybe I should sacrifice some of my other subscriptions to fund it.  The other subscriptions are good but mostly in the BAU camp and I could clearly benefit from a better spread of thought.  Others in his camp rant and rave, but he is far more studious and practical.

Do you subscribe to Copely? I don't, but his analysis - at least what I've seen when viewing his youtube interview output - is also very good on the political economics. Copely is I think less conspiratorial than Armstrong and has a better geopolitical understanding compared to Armstrong, though I'm open to being corrected on this?

[JMD]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/25/joe-biden-scapegoating-oil-companies-inflation-caused-american/

Telegraph reading the thread and taking @Cattle Prod work this time ?

If those hacks and other quislings are going to continue to steal this threads ideas - and so by osmosis also rob us of our ethos/not to mention our future wealth(?!) - perhaps it is time to 'take the thread private' so to speak!         

[Starsend]

51 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Who do you use to buy from, S??

 

Thanks to everyone who responded about the metals. Much appreciated 👍

I bought pretty much all of mine about 15 years ago. Bought the gold from Baird in London and most of the silver I bought in bulk from a dealer in the US (sorry don't have details for him anymore but it was a lot cheaper than buying in the UK). I actually used to sell 10oz bars on eBay until they forced you to accept PayPal and fraud went through the roof.

[belfastchild]

2 hours ago, Starsend said:

Physical gold I only own 1oz bullion coins and sovereigns. Highly liquid anywhere in the world.

 

I think it was in Bravo Two Zero I read that they carried 4 sovereigns sewn into their belts to help get the fuck out of dodge.
Ive carried three on my travels for this same reason. They are small enough to hide in plain sight in your spare change you put through the metal detectors at airports etc.

Without getting into the crypto debate Ive been on dodgy border crossings or remote locations I need to transit and have always had a backup stash of a couple of thousand dollars cash (and euro and pounds) and every border guard seems to recognise genuine gold and silver coins. No fucking about with internet connections or special keys. Im sure it would work but if Im standing behind you in the queue 1000 usd cash I get to the front of the queue before youve done the facial unlock on your phone. 20 usd cash in the back of your passport to get across the argentine/brazil border for an afternoon and skip the tourist queues... Anyway I digress...

Ive mostly silver 1oz, maples, eagles, brits, kangaroos, philharmonics. When i travel for my long periods, I usually walk into the nearest bullion dealer with my emergency stash and swap it for 30 pieces of silver ;-) Have had a few looks from airport security when I stick tubes through the hand scanner but usually they have been more curious than suspicious.
Only just started collecting sovs in the last couple of years. More because Id run out of places to stash monster box worth of silver! Used to tell the delivery drivers they were engine parts. Sovs easier to store and easier to transport.

Unlike DB I do include them in my wealth calculations as I intend to drip feed them to various buyers (atkinsons, chards or if I am somewhere else in the world, the local version - hence the collection above) as (if ) I get older. Will drip feed the 'foreign' ones up to CGT allowance then use the uk ones. Dublin is just a 30 quid train ride away from home for the day. Chards is train/bus ride away from where Im sitting today (atkinsons a bit longer).

I do hand a batch out every christmas as christmas presents to friends and family kids. At first I was the looney uncle/godfather then about 2 years ago I got asked to include folk in my next order...

[belfastchild]

1 hour ago, Erewhon888 said:

A quote from Armstrong that I took note of many years ago. Having worked in computing since 1970, this significantly coloured my ability to believe anything from Armstrong.

Needless to say, this is garbage.

I used to follow his blog until someone told me to google his full name + jail

Stopped paying attention to anything he said after that.

[Majorpain]

33 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

 

Bulb administration was looking like it was going to cost treasury £2.2bn over winter due to price cap/energy cost mismatch, yet more privatising of profits and socialising of losses in action.  If its a cold winter I would not be surprised if its a choice between losing the price cap or losing a load more utility companies.  Fun choice for the government.

[Hancock]

6 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

I used to follow his blog until someone told me to google his full name + jail

Stopped paying attention to anything he said after that.

 

[JMD]

4 hours ago, dnb24 said:

This is an issue I’ve had with Armstrong for some time- China are in serious trouble- the basics are not in place for this to happen- clean water, oil, gas, and usable agricultural land is just not available to China - without these basics I can’t see how it becomes the financial capital of the world. 

Good point. Are there any good articles about the dire situation re Chinese agriculture and the systemic reasons why it cannot feed itself, instead it relies on big imports? Only I'd like to learn more about this.

[Hancock]

Just now, Majorpain said:

Bulb administration was looking like it was going to cost treasury £2.2bn over winter due to price cap/energy cost mismatch, yet more privatising of profits and socialising of losses in action.  If its a cold winter I would not be surprised if its a choice between losing the price cap or losing a load more utility companies.  Fun choice for the government.

If they had to choose one price to cap, Mays govt should have gone for rent caps to save the British economy, instead it was more Help to Buy to boost house prices ... offset by saving a few quid on the heating bill.

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

Whilst this is undoubtedly true, if the West is fucked (and it is), what takes its place?

Perhaps we could give Japan another go!!

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Hancock said:

This issue with Armstrong is he is the biggest bullshitter out of all the bloggers, twitter people and is constantly wrong.

Chinas neighbour Kazakhstan has more than enough unused land to feed the Chinese. 

But isn't Kazakhstan very much Putin's backyard? I believe the two countries have strong military treaties.

[Hancock]

5 minutes ago, JMD said:

But isn't Kazakhstan very much Putin's backyard? I believe the two countries have strong military treaties.

When i was last there about 3 years ago one of the locals i was working with was saying Chinese are buying up huge swathes of land.

I drove for about 10 hours from the Russian border to Aytrau and it was just unused flat land that went on forever, presumably viable for farming.

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Atyrau,+Kazakhstan/51.4552978,52.9619718/@50.8535822,51.2549209,964022m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m9!4m8!1m5!1m1!1s0x41a3ea26f5b2dd0d:0x3e4a125c0e268d2d!2m2!1d51.9238373!2d47.0944959!1m0!3e0

[DurhamBorn]

Il just leave this with you ,they do everything to stop transfers and now this 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/pension-savers-shoe-horned-woke-funds/

Il give you a little something from the NEST report,

Total expense ratio 1.8% 

Holdings, 51% Global aware global equity.Tesla is in their top 10.

I returned in 16 months what they returned in 6 years.

 

"Sarah Pritchard, of the FCA, said: "These proposals will ensure that customers who don’t take financial advice can benefit from a professionally designed investment strategy, and reduce the risk of their retirement income being eroded by inflation."  

[Loki]

 

[Transistor Man]

38 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

I think it was in Bravo Two Zero I read that they carried 4 sovereigns sewn into their belts to help get the fuck out of dodge.
 

What made it back after Gulf War 1 was sold off in 1996. 

[feed]

So we just had our pay rise offer confirmed.  

In the first year of the agreement the Company proposes to increase salaries, by 5.15% effective 1 November 2021
In the second year of the agreement the Company proposes to increase salaries, by RPI (with a 2% floor) effective 1 November 2022

Over the prior 5 years, it averaged to 2.5% a year. 

 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Starsend said:

For silver I hold a mix of one ounce coins, one ounce bars and ten ounce bars.

You get more silver per $ if you buy a ten ounce bar due to the costs of fabrication being higher on one ounce coins. They are all extremely liquid. I've avoided the larger bars because I believe you don't get much more silver per $ than a 10oz bar and they could obviously get very expensive if silver rocketed. A 10oz bar could be $2000 if silver hits $200 but it will still be affordable to many, a 100oz bar not so much.

 

Hmm, what if you were dumb enough to have bought 5kg 'coin bars' (ie used to mean no vat)... just asking for a friend you understand!

[harp]

22 minutes ago, Transistor Man said:

What made it back after Gulf War 1 was sold off in 1996. 

Hope they got the black and nasty tape residue off those coins 😉

Bravo two Zero. Fiction of course 🙄

[CannonFodder]

Was in an annoucement at work that they going to chance the default pensio  fund to green options and funds, company choice. current default is a ftse type tracker.

Will hit many that just pay their percentage in and dont check.