Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Ma2]

Mainstream now...

Forget fine art: investors urged to put their money into rewilding

A startup is planning to acquire land to rewild, restore biodiversity, store carbon – and make a healthy return

Forget gold, vintage wines and fine art: investors and landowners are being urged to put their money into Tamworth pigs, Dalmatian pelicans and ponds dug by beavers.

The Real Wild Estates Company says it has tens of millions of pounds already pledged to acquire land to rewild, restore biodiversity, store carbon – and make a healthy return for investors.

The “natural capital” startup, which was launched at the rewilded Somerset farm belonging to the environmentalist and fund manager Ben Goldsmith, aims to create more than 100,000 acres of wild land across Britain by 2030

 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/29/forget-fine-art-investors-urged-to-put-their-money-into-rewilding

[Ma2]

50 minutes ago, CVG said:

MY home? I don't include that at all. It's my home - not an investment.

 

28 minutes ago, Harley said:

Defo agree about the home (a chattle, not an investment)

I have been struggling with this myself for a number of reasons and maybe a massive outlay like a house should be an opportunity to consider some kind of return where losing the home is not a risk.

 - Choice between

1.  downsizing and going mortgage free or
2. buying a home with same 10 year fix at low rate mortgage. Somewhere that will produce a return somehow

So with 2. for instance we have seen somewhere with an annexe that could be rented for holidays, this alone would cover the mortgage. But at the mercy of the government tax treatments, lock downs etc. And still have the mortgage of course.

We also have seen somewhere with land, this could be providing a return in terms of being able to grow our own food, keep hens etc. It is south facing and so solar comes into play.

1. Mortgage free is a great idea and would protect us to a certain extent. No point having a 10 year fix with inflation doing the work if you lose your job and can't pay the mortgage when your savings have run out.

 

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, Ma2 said:

Mainstream now...

Forget fine art: investors urged to put their money into rewilding

A startup is planning to acquire land to rewild, restore biodiversity, store carbon – and make a healthy return

Forget gold, vintage wines and fine art: investors and landowners are being urged to put their money into Tamworth pigs, Dalmatian pelicans and ponds dug by beavers.

The Real Wild Estates Company says it has tens of millions of pounds already pledged to acquire land to rewild, restore biodiversity, store carbon – and make a healthy return for investors.

The “natural capital” startup, which was launched at the rewilded Somerset farm belonging to the environmentalist and fund manager Ben Goldsmith, aims to create more than 100,000 acres of wild land across Britain by 2030

 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/29/forget-fine-art-investors-urged-to-put-their-money-into-rewilding

Yep and much better than attacking oil companies.Far better to re-wild places and accept its a cost.Then renewables will grow due to price signals and big oil wil be a big part.UK countryside is mostly empty fields,look at Google earth,and we are desperate for re-wilding.Id invest in it,even if i lost because i see it as needed.

[CVG]

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep and much better than attacking oil companies.Far better to re-wild places and accept its a cost.Then renewables will grow due to price signals and big oil wil be a big part.UK countryside is mostly empty fields,look at Google earth,and we are desperate for re-wilding.Id invest in it,even if i lost because i see it as needed.

Fascinating video. One of the earlier projects

 

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I've watched George for a while now.  He really has grown into quite a talent from a zero start.  One of life's doers.  Shows what can be done with some application.

I only have one problem with GG. It literally is only one. 99% of the rest of him is outstanding.

He's made his fortune via property flipping and being a leveraged LL. So he sits there slamming the Fed, low rates and high borrowing but his bread has been copiously buttered by it.

He seems oblivious to it.

[stoobs]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2021/10/28/amazon-engulfed-supply-chain-chaos/

Happening now as we expected.However big makes no difference with cost push inflation.Amazon can cut margins to nothing or lose sales.The 17% they charge merchants isnt sustainable.

Given how much web services makes retail is probably burning cash.

As the majority of British surnames are old trades, what exactly were James Titcomb’s ancestors up to?

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I worked for Cummins,they build the best engines in the world.We were doing lots of work with Hyundai on hydrogen.100% they will have it sorted,they already have really.

Hydrogen fuel cells make a lot more sense for Britain than fully electric cars.  There is not the space/infrastructure/housing to accomodate those cars.  Unless of course they plan for the poor not to have cars.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Ma2 said:

So with 2. for instance we have seen somewhere with an annexe that could be rented for holidays....

Or in my case for elderly relatives to live, enabling a mutli-generational household as discussed here.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

I only have one problem with GG. It literally is only one. 99% of the rest of him is outstanding.

He's made his fortune via property flipping and being a leveraged LL. So he sits there slamming the Fed, low rates and high borrowing but his bread has been copiously buttered by it.

He seems oblivious to it.

TBF, he mentioned it in a recent podcast.  Said something like he did well out of the nonsense.  I'm not an apologist but, as I suggested on the mortgages thread, maybe sometimes you have to go with the flow and not fight it.

[jamtomorrow]

8 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Hydrogen fuel cells make a lot more sense for Britain than fully electric cars.  There is not the space/infrastructure/housing to accomodate those cars.  Unless of course they plan for the poor not to have cars.

The turn from disinflation to reflation will do that anyway. We've become so accustomed to the fruits of lean manufacturing and JIT supply chains, we think we're entitled to a car each.

[Ma2]

10 minutes ago, Harley said:

Or in my case for elderly relatives to live, enabling a mutli-generational household as discussed here.

Yep same possibility for us if required, but would be moving to be closer to the olds in any case with that one.

So I think, when looking at houses, we can be thinking about how it could add value beyond simply a dwelling.

[Harley]

I've had me call up papers!

Come on folk, time to do ya bit ('cause they'll make you later anyway?)!

[Ma2]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

Come on folk, time to do ya bit ('cause they'll make you later anyway?)!

ha ha yeah - All money is 100% safe, backed by the HM Treasury. Wonder what you'll be able to buy with your money in 3 years time

[DoINeedOne]

13 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

Another anecdote

Farmer friend went to sell some cows today. Price is down about 10-20%, especially young ones that other farmers would normally buy to fatten up (~2 years). Reason is price of feed is up so the cost of rearing them is seen as too risky. Fertiliser is also up at least 50%

Forgot to post this the other day I saved it from a guy I follow on Twitter who has a farm in the UK

 

 

Also this guy I like 

 

[CVG]

43 minutes ago, Harley said:

I've had me call up papers!

Come on folk, time to do ya bit ('cause they'll make you later anyway?)!

I think that this bit is a lie and so I've reported to ASA.

"A £1,000 deposit would be worth £1,019.62 at the end of the 3-year term."

https://www.nsandi.com/files/asset/pdf/green-savings-bonds-summary.pdf

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

 maybe sometimes you have to go with the flow and not fight it.

Until we end up like this?

[Majorpain]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think to be fair they are adding huge capacity everywhere funded from cashflow so likely they will increase free cash in the medium term.However they have a massive cost base,and every part of it facing headlong into inflation.

 

On the flip side they also have full visibility of those pressures because they are integrated, so may be able to manage them better than traditional retail selling to each other at each stage of the chain.  They can also access a ridiculous amount of printed money through the US financial system, so again may fair relatively well if the Fed can continue to print.

Of course, if they cant print and Amazon is forced into the markets then lending 10% to 10 smaller companies is less risky than lending 100% to one big one.  There would obviously need to be a switch to "return of" rather than "return on" capital for that to occur however.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I've had me call up papers!

Come on folk, time to do ya bit ('cause they'll make you later anyway?)!

Or you can buy HM Treasury backed property, with returns of circa 50-100% per annum, of the initial sum you put down as a deposit.

[Wheeler]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

I've had me call up papers!

Come on folk, time to do ya bit ('cause they'll make you later anyway?)!

I might be interested at RPI + 0.65%, tax free!

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

They never said.  Just that it did not comply.  No warnings, nothing.  Just took it down.  I'm sure it'll still be down if he did not have the support. 

PS:  I've watched George for a while now.  He really has grown into quite a talent from a zero start.  One of life's doers.  Shows what can be done with some application.

Yes. I bet there are still some easily found old videos on YouTube of George Gammon when he was 'only a humble' property (BTL?) Investor. I remember seeing one of them many years ago shot from his home in South America where I think he has most of his property portfolio... I was really surprised years later, after he begun to be mentioned on here, to see him in his new role as financial pundit!!

[Harley]

24 minutes ago, Wheeler said:

I might be interested at RPI + 0.65%, tax free!

They pulled those years ago! 

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, CVG said:

I think that this bit is a lie and so I've reported to ASA.

"A £1,000 deposit would be worth £1,019.62 £325.00 at the end of the 3-year term."

https://www.nsandi.com/files/asset/pdf/green-savings-bonds-summary.pdf

FTFY

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

They pulled those years ago! 

Tories issued one, maybe 2.  They were from the labour era more. Then establishment realised they could just QE up the cash and no one would hang them.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Harley said:

Yep  I wonder about property too, although I have not rebought as overpriced atm.  I agree about considering bond proxies rather than just bonds.  Have to get back to the fundamentals of the approach to work that out.  After much dilly dallying I'm putting my indexed linked NS&I in there.  I appreciate the loss of normal bonds but that's partly portfolio insurance for me, although I'll hold less than 25% total.  The portfolio is after all about long term preservation first and foremost.

Hard assets is a key area for me and like all the four asset classes, I'm sub-dividing it into areas beyond the suggested make up.  So more than gold in PMs - crypto, other PMs, commodities, etc.

They way I approach all this stuff (Browne portfolio, DCF, etc) is to use it all as a sound starting point and then cautiously move where I think I need to.  At least I better know where I'm starting.  The biggest moment in my investing life was getting grounded - having a playbook from which to play rather than being blown around by single events, media, emotion, available time, commentators, etc.  

I am also always on the lookout for hard-asset 'alternatives', bond 'alternative', etc.... I've mentioned these guys before: Horizon Kinetics money managers are an old fashioned (imho, and not said as criticism) type outfit, but do have interesting ideas on finding hard assets for the next cycle. Their Q3 update is here...                                            https://horizonkinetics.com/whats-new/#3rd-quarter-2021-commentary

[HousePriceMania]

[HousePriceMania]