Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Axeman123]

2 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Everyone can see what is looming, but it could still take another 3 months. These are trying times.

[HousePriceMania]

Just now, Axeman123 said:

Everyone can see what is looming, but it could still take another 3 months. These are trying times.

 

It doesn't matter when you sell, but sell you should.

Though, I have been buying oil/gas and miners since July as a hedge against collapse of the £ further down the line.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Harley said:

Is AWS essentially a data centre?  I have a watchlist of data centre stocks, but not them.  Quite hard to invest there atm as several are private, small, not just data centres, or get taken over.

On the subject of watchlists, thanks to @sancho panza for posting his now and then.  They offer a good headstart and/or cross check of my own.

AWS offers a complete cloud service, so DC's, pay as you go server platforms, etc. Interestingly it is the most profitable part of the Amazon empire (which itself begun as as a mere bookseller!.. quiet a transformation)

[Hancock]

12 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Everyone can see what is looming, but it could still take another 3 months. These are trying times.

It could take another 3 years for the BK people are waiting for, or maybe it doesnt happen at all.

[Axeman123]

9 minutes ago, Hancock said:

It could take another 3 years for the BK people are waiting for, or maybe it doesnt happen at all.

I will respectfully disagree. Everything seems to be in flux at the moment, and a lot of things taken for granted are suddenly uncertain. I really feel that we are in a situation like an approaching tsunami, where the tide has unexpectedly gone WAY out in a matter of minutes. We have gone to a rooftop bar at the hotel, and are watching idiots merrily wandering out to collect seashells. Now the doubts set in, are we missing out? Is this time really different?

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Ma2 said:

Mainstream now...

Forget fine art: investors urged to put their money into rewilding

A startup is planning to acquire land to rewild, restore biodiversity, store carbon – and make a healthy return

Forget gold, vintage wines and fine art: investors and landowners are being urged to put their money into Tamworth pigs, Dalmatian pelicans and ponds dug by beavers.

The Real Wild Estates Company says it has tens of millions of pounds already pledged to acquire land to rewild, restore biodiversity, store carbon – and make a healthy return for investors.

The “natural capital” startup, which was launched at the rewilded Somerset farm belonging to the environmentalist and fund manager Ben Goldsmith, aims to create more than 100,000 acres of wild land across Britain by 2030

 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/29/forget-fine-art-investors-urged-to-put-their-money-into-rewilding

I'm tempted, rewilding has been mentioned by @DurhamBorn before. Is this 'investment product' a good way to invest or are there better alternatives? I wonder, are others more knowledgable about this space able to comment please?        

[Axeman123]

Just now, JMD said:

I'm tempted, rewilding has been mentioned by @DurhamBorn before. Is this 'investment product' a good way to invest or are there better alternatives? I wonder, are others more knowledgable about this space able to comment please?        

I am not knowledgable about the space, but I am cynical. My take is while there may be good opportunities in rewilding, it is also the kind of buzzword investment that attracts scam-marketing. People have lost fortunes over the years on investment products pushing hogsheads of single malt, gemstones, off-plan ski apartments, trading carbon-credits, portfolios of appreciating classic cars or fine wines etc. Every investment is the same product: a huge front loaded loss on purchase through commisions and fees of an asset which never matches the forecast performance.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I only have one problem with GG. It literally is only one. 99% of the rest of him is outstanding.

He's made his fortune via property flipping and being a leveraged LL. So he sits there slamming the Fed, low rates and high borrowing but his bread has been copiously buttered by it.

He seems oblivious to it.

I doubt George is 'oblivious' to the irony... but I do expect he's hoping that most of his viewers/subscribers are!!

[Hancock]

10 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Is this time really different?

Yes as global govts/central banks are united, and have been dropping money into peoples bank accounts.

It is most certainly different, whether that means we get a crash is something only time will tell.

I'm about 65% cash as of today, and i'm waiting for a crash and i believe there will be one, but i just can't buy this guarantee that its almost certainly happening in a few months or in 2022.

[Axeman123]

4 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Yes as global govts/central banks are united, and have been dropping money into peoples bank accounts.

It is most certainly different, whether that means we get a crash is something only time will tell.

I'm about 65% cash as of today, and i'm waiting for a crash and i believe there will be one, but i just can't buy this guarantee that its almost certainly happening in a few months or in 2022.

100%.

I am roughly 50:50 Cash : GJGB (ie GDXJ in sterling on the LSE). Like I said these are trying times, and I have my eye on the door.

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

TBF, he mentioned it in a recent podcast.  Said something like he did well out of the nonsense.  I'm not an apologist but, as I suggested on the mortgages thread, maybe sometimes you have to go with the flow and not fight it.

Yes, tbc I also wouldn't attack him for being a property Investor. In fact the ultra forensic way he went about it (I've seen him before describe his process, etc) gives me some extra confidence in the financial punditry he does now!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

I will respectfully disagree. Everything seems to be in flux at the moment, and a lot of things taken for granted are suddenly uncertain. I really feel that we are in a situation like an approaching tsunami, where the tide has unexpectedly gone WAY out in a matter of minutes. We have gone to a rooftop bar at the hotel, and are watching idiots merrily wandering out to collect seashells. Now the doubts set in, are we missing out? Is this time really different?

I look at it mainly from a political angle.  Maybe they will pull the rug from under people at a time that suits them.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

I'm tempted, rewilding has been mentioned by @DurhamBorn before. Is this 'investment product' a good way to invest or are there better alternatives? I wonder, are others more knowledgable about this space able to comment please?        

I've planted hundreds of native trees, brought back habitats to the point of being swamped with wildlife, etc.  I don't need no financial product but I do need me social credits, loadsa them.  Blooming virtuous I am.  The real deal, out in the real world doing stuff, not one of these fake nancies.  Again, loadsa credits please, enough for me Harley and the central heating, plus a bit of meat now and then!

[Axeman123]

7 minutes ago, Harley said:

I look at it mainly from a political angle.  Maybe they will pull the rug from under people at a time that suits them.

I hear that. What do you make of the co-ordinated moves to raise rates by mortgage lenders? They have clearly been told what to expect. What if the rug-pull isn't at a time of their choosing, but rather they have reached the end of the road due to inflation? Now they have to choose between two policy errors, and letting inflation run too hot is the scarier prospect.

[Loki]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

I'm tempted, rewilding has been mentioned by @DurhamBorn before. Is this 'investment product' a good way to invest or are there better alternatives? I wonder, are others more knowledgable about this space able to comment please?        

Not quite the answer to the question you asked, but it got me thinking.  Apart from the reflationary shocks we all know about, I consider my PMs a 'hedge' against almost everything.  Like carbon hysteria as we're discussing.

- More controls on CO2 - more overheads in transport, mining, energy, etc - inflationary - PMs do their job and preserve wealth.

If they want to give me a nice plot of land to be an organic steward I would be more than happy but (a) I doubt that's what they have in mind and (b) I can't fit it in my pocket

[Chewing Grass]

Just now, Axeman123 said:

I hear that. What do you make of the co-ordinated moves to raise rates by mortgage lenders? They have clearly been told what to expect. What if the rug-pull isn't at a time of their choosing, but rather they have reached the end of the road due to inflation? Now they have to choose between two policy errors, and letting inflation run too hot is the scarier prospect.

Banks will be losing usury money hand over fist, everyone I know is paying credit off as fast as they can and that was their main money earner, they will soon need to extract money from somewhere and in the absence of a debt fuelled boom it will be from existing punters and the best punters have secured loans.

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I hear that. What do you make of the co-ordinated moves to raise rates by mortgage lenders? They have clearly been told what to expect. What if the rug-pull isn't at a time of their choosing, but rather they have reached the end of the road due to inflation? Now they have to choose between two policy errors, and letting inflation run too hot is the scarier prospect.

No idea with these guys.  It'll probably be more than just housing though.  Maybe they'll just turn the covid machine to the finance area: dependency, serfdom, compliance, and life as a service as you'll own nothing and they will be happy!  The existing rentier setup on steroids.

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, Ma2 said:

Mainstream now...

Forget fine art: investors urged to put their money into rewilding

A startup is planning to acquire land to rewild, restore biodiversity, store carbon – and make a healthy return

Forget gold, vintage wines and fine art: investors and landowners are being urged to put their money into Tamworth pigs, Dalmatian pelicans and ponds dug by beavers.

The Real Wild Estates Company says it has tens of millions of pounds already pledged to acquire land to rewild, restore biodiversity, store carbon – and make a healthy return for investors.

The “natural capital” startup, which was launched at the rewilded Somerset farm belonging to the environmentalist and fund manager Ben Goldsmith, aims to create more than 100,000 acres of wild land across Britain by 2030

 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/29/forget-fine-art-investors-urged-to-put-their-money-into-rewilding

Yeah right!...the only return will be on the carbon capture, and unlike forestry a) you wouldn't be able to harvest due to potential public outrage/government interference, and b) the more rewilding the site the greater protected status, so further restrictions I.e no potential for housing.....at least farmers get paid (via the countryside stewardship scheme) to do similar on the less productive parts of their estates whilst optimizing the rest......the problem with biodiversity initiatives is that everyone thinks they are a great idea but they expect somebody else to pay for it.

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

I hear that. What do you make of the co-ordinated moves to raise rates by mortgage lenders? They have clearly been told what to expect. What if the rug-pull isn't at a time of their choosing, but rather they have reached the end of the road due to inflation? Now they have to choose between two policy errors, and letting inflation run too hot is the scarier prospect.

The banks were given the heads up alright as I posted some letters back in August when they were preparing to move the goalposts.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

No idea with these guys.  It'll probably be more than just housing though.  Maybe they'll just turn the covid machine to the finance area: dependency, serfdom, compliance, and life as a service as you'll own nothing and they will be happy!  The existing rentier setup on steroids.

It could happen, but it'd only have legs for a while until a Corbyn/Farage esq politician calls it out.

But then i realise we've only got the choice of 2 identical parties, and Corbyn never really came close to being PM due to his own stupidity and the MSM brainwashing the masses.

[Majorpain]

Euro Inflation print is a scorcher, despite relatively solid average GDP growth of 2.2% its still going backwards due to 4% inflation.  I do like how ECB's "core" inflation, just like the Fed, takes out useless things that people don't need like food and energy.

[reformed nice guy]

Was reading an article on diesel shortages in China.

The country imports >70% of its oil.

Price at the pumps is an all time high of 7.22 yuan, which is 82p per litre

Lucky bastards!

[Barnsey]

Pretty sure this is exactly what Sunak is focused on...

 

[wherebee]

7 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I will respectfully disagree. Everything seems to be in flux at the moment, and a lot of things taken for granted are suddenly uncertain. I really feel that we are in a situation like an approaching tsunami, where the tide has unexpectedly gone WAY out in a matter of minutes. We have gone to a rooftop bar at the hotel, and are watching idiots merrily wandering out to collect seashells. Now the doubts set in, are we missing out? Is this time really different?

great wording, classic in fact.  Even I have felt the pull of the FAAANGS every now and then as people crow about their paper profits.

I'll sit here with my oilies and miners, and the scottish share of course (400 quid up now, woooo), and my licklt pile of cash to buy the BK.

[Hancock]

34 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Pretty sure this is exactly what Sunak is focused on...

 

Maybe if we get actual deflation people will spend their savings.