Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[spygirl]

32 minutes ago, AWW said:

You're making the mistake that all people on benefits are employable.

They can only get a job if someone's willing to pay them.

All people are employable - at some rate.

If not then hover them up and put them 3 to a room in a HMO and given them broom to push 9-5

Everyone becomes employable when the alternative is not very nice.

 

[DurhamBorn]

Markets are starting to price now for rates being higher for longer by the looks of it.They will get around to pricing inflation higher for longer too.

[spygirl]

25 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Bennie reform is simple,replace child amounts with "family premium" ,so once you have a child you get the premium,but thats it,no extra for 2nd ,3rd child etc,say £65 a week on top of the £75 a single person gets.Means test away at 25% from £5k.Rent base on that,so two bedrooms only.Fund councils to build shared facilities housing like old peoples homes are like,so you can have 3 beds there,but shared kitchen,bathroom.Everyone can get a room if needed,but not very nice for longer term.

Another that would really help would be to extend bennie cap to those working and on sickness benneis.

Most of the ones driving around here in Range Rover on bennies is because their partners work but arent down as with them.I dont think they police it at all now,everyone i know on bennies is defrauding on one way or another.

Very likely we are at a tipping point where welfare goes up quicker than can be sustained now QE is over.Wealth taxes or bennie cuts.

R$.

Back on the farm.

Strawberry pickers - Romania and .... Indonesia.

Local MP moron Goowill - Ireland have had to fly in 500 people from Brazil ..

Both UIK + Ireland have been swamped by migrants in the last 20 years.

Noone is doing anything fuckignproductive.

 

 

 

 

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

All true,but shes not fat,shes very attractive,but then she would be,she spends all her day doing a beauty routine and the gym.Public funded police pension bought the house,not public funded LHA paying it off,then he will give it to her i suspect.Free house in nice area.Young couples have to look at crappy terraces that used to be £25k

Gift it once all the kids are 18+. As long as you live 7 years after that date, no inheritance tax. Makes a lot of sense if you won’t need the money in retirement.

[Pip321]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Markets are starting to price now for rates being higher for longer by the looks of it.They will get around to pricing inflation higher for longer too.

Few wobbles around and some cheeky ladders.

My target ladder on a few shares are often the price @ March 2020…no science to that with an acknowledgement some sectors have move on since then eg oil, commodities. Several decent high yielding shares already lower than March 2020  

In terms of then translating that into a share price on a given day and ‘trading’ my process is simple.
I take the maths, the fundamentals, the science, the macros, the charts and throw them in a mixer with a big pile of shit. A random outcome normally applies and I buy in a dip…which normally has another 10/15% dip follows almost immediately after I buy 😆😆😆😆.

[ThoughtCriminal]

How do we short Germany? 

[Chewing Grass]

6 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

How do we short Germany? 

The 4th Reich can send them all to the Ukrainian Front and start producing Kohleverflüssigung using the Bergius Process with their new pool of slave labour.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Gift it once all the kids are 18+. As long as you live 7 years after that date, no inheritance tax. Makes a lot of sense if you won’t need the money in retirement.

Yep,i know a good few people renting to family using benefits to pay mortgages off.One of my mates was a rigger,£5k a month offshore,his partner down as single,he rented house to her and used the benefits to pay it off,in the UK if your in the private sector and dont cheat your letting your family down unless your on a very big salary.Sickening,but true.

[DurhamBorn]

14 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Few wobbles around and some cheeky ladders.

My target ladder on a few shares are often the price @ March 2020…no science to that with an acknowledgement some sectors have move on since then eg oil, commodities. Several decent high yielding shares already lower than March 2020  

In terms of then translating that into a share price on a given day and ‘trading’ my process is simple.
I take the maths, the fundamentals, the science, the macros, the charts and through them in a mixer with a big pile of shit. A random outcome normally applies and I buy in a dip…which normally has another 10/15% dip follows almost immediately after I buy 😆😆😆😆.

Yes nice to see,areas im full mostly holding up well over this year so far,areas im laddering into drifting lower.Im tilting more to certain EMs though as well.UK policy is a shit show.

The Tesco spat with Heinz is interesting.Tesco know suppliers or them will take the pain.High margin consumer staples think they are ok in an inflation due to brand strength,but i doubt it this cycle.

[King Penda]

5 hours ago, tank said:

It depends on what section of the housing market you look at. The upper tier in London/SE and a handful of other places is basically foreign money parking and/or domestic equity swapping.

The middle to lower tiers are a different story.

Take a look around the regions propped up by huge welfare spend and state employment e.g. NHS, LAs, emergency services etc. Durham likes to mention the fat single mum in his close living in a family house rented off her retired public sector parents. HB is clearly being used to pay off countless BTL mortgages and inflate prices across regional Britain.

The wheeze is to buy a btl house rent it to a friend who might not even move in for 2/3 months ,then they leave and you can let a family member rent it .you need a history of it being rented out to someone.otherwise the system won’t pay houseing benifit if it’s rented to a family member .the irony is it’s hard working tax payers not those on actual benifits that operate this scam or I should say loophole

[King Penda]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes nice to see,areas im full mostly holding up well over this year so far,areas im laddering into drifting lower.Im tilting more to certain EMs though as well.UK policy is a shit show.

The Tesco spat with Heinz is interesting.Tesco know suppliers or them will take the pain.High margin consumer staples think they are ok in an inflation due to brand strength,but i doubt it this cycle.

Indeed the only branded things I’m rigid about is coffee and washing clothes stuff

[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

High margin consumer staples think they are ok in an inflation due to brand strength,but i doubt it this cycle.

I have been merrily switching, Hellmans is no more, Walkers are no more, Heinz Beanz are no more. All have bean replaced by anonymous products that are 95% the same or even better (in the case of fried potatoes).

No amount of advertising is going to save the over-leveraged big boys.

[Talking Monkey]

39 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Few wobbles around and some cheeky ladders.

My target ladder on a few shares are often the price @ March 2020…no science to that with an acknowledgement some sectors have move on since then eg oil, commodities. Several decent high yielding shares already lower than March 2020  

In terms of then translating that into a share price on a given day and ‘trading’ my process is simple.
I take the maths, the fundamentals, the science, the macros, the charts and through them in a mixer with a big pile of shit. A random outcome normally applies and I buy in a dip…which normally has another 10/15% dip follows almost immediately after I buy 😆😆😆😆.

Kin hell, that's more or less how I do it. I get the same outcome too the second after I buy 😃

[Democorruptcy]

33 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

How do we short Germany? 

Funnily enough earlier on I'd read some German immigration figures and thought "that could be their unemployment rate going up". We have to give them time to find a job?

Quote

 

“Net immigration across Germany’s borders rose in 2021, following a decrease in the previous year, returning to roughly the level recorded before the Covid-19 pandemic broke out (2019: 327,000),” the press release explains.

More specifically, 1.3 million arrivals were recorded in 2021, compared to one million departures largely to the UK, taking the balance to over 300,000 in one year alone. In the previous year, when the COVID-19 pandemic had hit the world, the number of arrivals stood at 1.2 million, with one million departures.

However, the highest number of arrivals was recorded in 2015, known as a migration crisis for European countries, when millions of Syrians and other nationalities crossed the border and entered the zone. During this time, 1.2 million Syrians came to Europe, marking the second-highest since World War II.

More specifically, 2.1 million arrivals were recorded during this time, while the departures stood at one million.

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/germanys-immigration-exceeds-emigration-rates-by-over-300000-people/

 

 

[Don Coglione]

39 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

How do we short Germany? 

You can borrow my BASF shares, if you want.

[Chewing Grass]

What's wrong with ABDRN, been a steady rinsing but they weathered the covids OK.

Is this a 1932 sort of thing in the long run.

[JMD]

17 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

I have been merrily switching, Hellmans is no more, Walkers are no more, Heinz Beanz are no more. All have bean replaced by anonymous products that are 95% the same or even better (in the case of fried potatoes).

No amount of advertising is going to save the over-leveraged big boys.

(I see what you did there?!) Your first line reads like Proclaimers, Letters from America...    'Hellmans no more, Walkers no more' - sing in (strident/aggressive) Scottish accent - a rousing chant for the masses?

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

Wheat INFLATION...where?

 

Anyone for the LARGEST BREAD in the shop... at ONLY 20p that's nearly 2 foot long!!!

 

All this moaning on here, ffs boys & girlies ...pull ya socks UP!

 

Actually i picked this up before any of the other scavengers could get their dirty paws on it, this was just as the YRS lady was coming down to do the final REDUCTION, as she was approaching...

 

I thanked her already with my BEST smooth "swiss Tony" chessy chat-up...to the utter astonishment of the other scavengers! But hey it worked cos I got it for 20p!

 

 

 

 

[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, JMD said:

(I see what you did there?!) Your first line reads like Proclaimers, Letters from America...    'Hellmans no more, Walkers no more' - sing in (strident/aggressive) Scottish accent - a rousing chant for the masses?

You missed the miss spelling of been I chucked in as well as a pun on Heinz.

[ThoughtCriminal]

28 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Funnily enough earlier on I'd read some German immigration figures and thought "that could be their unemployment rate going up". We have to give them time to find a job?

 

Finding a job would impact on their ability to brutally rape young German girls and throw them in rivers.

 

You need some diversity awareness training.

9 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

You missed the miss spelling of been I chucked in as well as a pun on Heinz.

You're wasted on these Philistines 😉

[M S E Refugee]

[Pip321]

51 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

I have been merrily switching, Hellmans is no more, Walkers are no more, Heinz Beanz are no more. All have bean replaced by anonymous products that are 95% the same or even better (in the case of fried potatoes).

No amount of advertising is going to save the over-leveraged big boys.

Shopping this morning.

I like no added sugar heinz beans. Just picked some up today at the pound shop £2.75 for 4 pack. Sell by was July 2023👍🏻

As ever eggs, milk, orange juice, bread and fruit all bought from M&S this morning for much cheaper (ie 20% cheaper) than our ‘cheap local Co-op’. Those without cars and who can’t buy bulk will suffer. 

Did notice the ‘curry pack’ ie rice, naan, 3 curries, onion barge, at M&S was £10 is now £12. Found one with a sticker on…but still £10, ouch.

We favour M&S for two reasons….the staff are superb despite the shitty customers, and the fruit definitely lasts longer  

Then we had free lattes at the coffee shop. We go twice a week and our loyalty card came up trumps today.

(this post is starting to sound like a Facebook tosser with pictures of my breakfast for uninterested readers🤦🏻‍♂️) 

So my point….this morning a saved £5 but my shares dropped £1k 😆😆🥳. No worries, long term I am sure I am in the right place. 

[M S E Refugee]

Skepticism grows over Russian oil price cap https://www.rt.com/business/558126-skepticism-russian-oil-price-cap/

[RJT1979]

1 hour ago, King Penda said:

The wheeze is to buy a btl house rent it to a friend who might not even move in for 2/3 months ,then they leave and you can let a family member rent it .you need a history of it being rented out to someone.otherwise the system won’t pay houseing benifit if it’s rented to a family member .the irony is it’s hard working tax payers not those on actual benifits that operate this scam or I should say loophole

I thought was illegal. You have to be an uncle or something. Pakistan family's rent from each others uncles to get around it?

[RJT1979]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

Funnily enough earlier on I'd read some German immigration figures and thought "that could be their unemployment rate going up". We have to give them time to find a job?

 

1 million Germans came to the uk in 1 year?