Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, belfastchild said:

I like their faith in HMG to stop exporting and making money if there is a deficit at home with people paying less.

We recently signed a deal with Norway for more gas over the next few years. Of the major European nations excluding Russia we appear to be in the best position. Of course we will be paying the market rate for all additional gas.

The piece above doesn't mention that we've been burning gas to generate electricity to export to the continent also, mainly France. Great Britain, choosing the correct geography, is awash with gas currently. If only we had storage capacity.

I can't see the UK Gov banning or limiting gas export this winter. We should be ok, if nothing else gets worse such as an LNG tanker getting a missile in the face. We have a lot of leverage currently as an energy (re)exporter. The Government should use that to iron out some of the problems we have with the EU. They probably won't as they're not up to the job of representing the interests of the British people.

[JMD]

1 hour ago, ONC said:

Hi JMD,  nothing special, I just found the debt profile plot in their annual report. Did not see anything about debt cost though.

Correction on one point, AB Imbev  is Belgium company, with 30% Dividend withholding tax. Does not matter that it is on NYSE as BUD, still would pay withholding tax. However, it seems unclear if tax is paid if held within SIPP.

 

 

 

Think witholding taxes correspond to where the company pays its tax. So if said company pays US tax then part of the divi payment is withheld if stock is held in ISA, however US also has arrangements for pension products and doesn't apply witholding taxes to sipps. I don't think other countries operate this exclusion for sipps?

[Errol]

 

[Lightly Toasted]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Oh i see, telephone hygienists, etc.                                                                                                                                      Douglas Adams died too young, I'd love to have had his take on current events... I really should re-read his books, perhaps he predicted all this crap and left some useful info. in his writings?

The closest he got was probably this:

“You know," said Arthur, "it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse, and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young."
"Why, what did she tell you?"
"I don't know, I didn't listen.”

[M S E Refugee]

Royal Mail Managers have voted for Strike action.

I think this could be the first time in history that this has happened.

[Bobthebuilder]

23 minutes ago, Lightly Toasted said:

The closest he got was probably this:

“You know," said Arthur, "it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse, and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young."
"Why, what did she tell you?"
"I don't know, I didn't listen.”

"being teleported is a bit like being drunk"

"what's wrong with being drunk?" asks Arthur.

"Ask a glass of water".

[Spiney Norman]

9 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Royal Mail Managers have voted for Strike action.

I think this could be the first time in history that this has happened.

RMG shares maybe a good buy very soon?

[spygirl]

Central bank chiefs call end to era of low rates and moderate inflation ECB, Fed and BoE heads warn of painful shift after ‘massive geopolitical shock’ of Ukraine war and pandemic

https://www.ft.com/content/0c686df6-823b-49c2-bf0e-80e119d9e80a

The world’s top central bankers have warned that the era of low interest rates and moderate inflation has come to an end following the “massive geopolitical shock” from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and from the coronavirus pandemic.

Speaking at the European Central Bank’s annual conference, Christine Lagarde, its president, Jay Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, and Andrew Bailey, Bank of England governor, called for rapid action to curb inflation.

They said failing to raise interest rates quickly enough could allow high inflation to become embedded and ultimately require more drastic action by central banks to bring price growth back to more moderate levels.

“The process is highly likely to involve some pain, but the worst pain would be from failing to address this high inflation and allowing it to become persistent,” said Powell.

 

I read that as heads up that rates are going to go a lot lot higher than people were speculating only last month.

SO much for the CB being in charge and tweaking rates.

Fuckwtards.

 

 

[M S E Refugee]

4 minutes ago, Spiney Norman said:

RMG shares maybe a good buy very soon?

They will certainly be cheaper, I'm not sure if they will be a good investment.

[leonardratso]

15 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

They will certainly be cheaper, I'm not sure if they will be a good investment.

ive got 2 pcls arriving, can they put it off until ive got them? i promise not to order anymore after these 2 are delivered.

[Boon]

RMG have a lot of property on their books, priced at a discount to book value. Around me I can recall a few old depots being sold off for housing.

The staff thing appears to be their weakness. As of the last annual report they had 178,709 people working for them. Assuming average of 20 hours/week (not sure how many are part/full time) a raise of £1/hour will cost them £185m. What seems pretty small on an individual level ends up being a massive part of the profit.

The only way to offset that is to either charge more for stamps or getting more efficiency from current workers. The latter is difficult enough, raising prices also ends up pushing people towards alternatives. 

[DurhamBorn]

36 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Royal Mail Managers have voted for Strike action.

I think this could be the first time in history that this has happened.

Can they wait a week?,iv got loads of items on the way from the shoplifters.

[feed]

These only one day strike actions though, aren't they. 

[RJT1979]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Can they wait a week?,iv got loads of items on the way from the shoplifters.

Do you know anyone who can steal a 500 quid driver from American Golf? 😆 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Can they wait a week?,iv got loads of items on the way from the shoplifters.

Do they remove the Boots price labels?

[Lightscribe]

Another anecdotal. Extended family, major haulage firm in the UK. Fixed term contract for HVO fuel fixed for two more years at £1.12 a litre. 

Needs natural gas to produce the energy for hydrogen to create the high flashpoint (blue hydrogen).

How long have we got until supply is taken up with veg oil demand now sunflower oil out the picture (Ukraine) and October when the energy cap rises.

Ticking time bomb in the supply chain.

https://www.fwi.co.uk/machinery/hvo-fuel-what-you-need-to-know

[Joncrete Cungle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nf7T5I93i1E

Rick Rule on how to find the best Junior Mining investments

[UnconventionalWisdom]

10 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

Mechanic told me Kia / Hyundai ( same thing more or less ) is the car he expects to repair least.

My mechanic said he went for Kias. Mate who used to work in data at RAC said they were one of the best

[Ash4781b]

7 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Another anecdotal. Extended family, major haulage firm in the UK. Fixed term contract for HVO fuel fixed for two more years at £1.12 a litre. 

Needs natural gas to produce the energy for hydrogen to create the high flashpoint (blue hydrogen).

How long have we got until supply is taken up with veg oil demand now sunflower oil out the picture (Ukraine) and October when the energy cap rises.

Ticking time bomb in the supply chain.

https://www.fwi.co.uk/machinery/hvo-fuel-what-you-need-to-know

Yeah cost pressures in supply chains. Seem to be battles going on behind the scenes bubbling out into view. See below re Heinz. Think Tesco is flexing muscle due to market size. Fighting the consumer corner. Well that’s what they say. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61978595

[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

My mechanic said he went for Kias. Mate who used to work in data at RAC said they were one of the best

The best cars are generally the ones people have low expectations of but are looked after due to the type of ownership.

If they are widely, leased, screwed and abused before hitting the used market then they are expensive and unreliable to own.

[Chewing Grass]

5 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

Yeah cost pressures in supply chains. Seem to be battles going on behind the scenes bubbling out into view. See below re Heinz. Think Tesco is flexing muscle due to market size. Fighting the consumer corner. Well that’s what they say. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61978595

This is a direct result of Kraft an American scum firm acquiring Heinz in 2015 and effectively resulted in another hand (a greedy one) in the till.

Kraft are a parasite.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kraft_Heinz

[M S E Refugee]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

ive got 2 pcls arriving, can they put it off until ive got them? i promise not to order anymore after these 2 are delivered.

You can order stuff for a few months yet, you will only notice disruption when the Postmen and Women go on strike.

I received my ballot paper this morning.

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, RJT1979 said:

Do you know anyone who can steal a 500 quid driver from American Golf? 😆 

It still won't fix that slice

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

This is a direct result of Kraft an American scum firm acquiring Heinz in 2015 and effectively resulted in another hand (a greedy one) in the till.

Kraft are a parasite.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kraft_Heinz

Wll 3G are a massive fucktarded PE parasite, who merged with Kraft, who are fucktarded parasites.

And now they are trying to push tge cost if true fuckup in consumer.

I reckon it'll fail, and 3g-kraft-heinz will go back to their parts.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kraft-heinz-disaster-shows-brutal-224231597.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kraft-heinz-failure-put-3g-144124013.html

 

[sancho panza]

8 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

If they will just be collecting the payments from existing mortgages, then it could be a good or bad idea depending entirely on the price paid. Rising mortgage rates would equal a greater spread over cost of funding. If they are planning to roll out more of this kind of lending it is a disaster.

Random thought: maybe this is a covert bailout of a lender going insolvent, government directed.

Barclays total assets are around£1.4 trillion.QUite why they're buying such a risky mortgage book that peanuts in value to them I don't know.Adding £2bn mortgage book to their outstanding £156bn mortgage book.Even then it's peanuts.

In terms of arbing rising rates,then I'd suspect they'll do better spending the effort on their credit card business.

your random thought maybe closer to the truth.

 

7 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

DXY short then? 😉

there's not enough elverage in that trade to draw me in.I'm currently nursing some humdinging red per centages in our US goldies options trades.

Having said that,weak dollar means rising yellow stuff and there are some shares that look well oversold but I've bored about them before

From the recent April 18th gold-ZG- lower high.Picture paints a 1000 words