Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[DurhamBorn]

52 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Wheat INFLATION...where?

 

Anyone for the LARGEST BREAD in the shop... at ONLY 20p that's nearly 2 foot long!!!

 

All this moaning on here, ffs boys & girlies ...pull ya socks UP!

 

Actually i picked this up before any of the other scavengers could get their dirty paws on it, this was just as the YRS lady was coming down to do the final REDUCTION, as she was approaching...

 

I thanked her already with my BEST smooth "swiss Tony" chessy chat-up...to the utter astonishment of the other scavengers! But hey it worked cos I got it for 20p!

 

 

 

 

Spooky,thats similar to what i see when i take a piss.

My partner got 5 packs of 1kg steak mince for £2 a pack in Asda ,£1 per 500g,im finding more quality stuff reduced during the day,not the end of day pennies,but 50% off etc.

 

[King Penda]

9 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

I thought was illegal. You have to be an uncle or something. Pakistan family's rent from each others uncles to get around it?

You can rent it to your son or daughter. If you can prove the house has a history of being rented out I’m not kidding 

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

What's wrong with ABDRN, been a steady rinsing but they weathered the covids OK.

Is this a 1932 sort of thing in the long run.

I posted a bit recently about one of the analysts lowering the price target 230 to 180 that seemed to knocked them a bit. Though the asset managers in general have gone down recently HL, JUP.

(That bloody Vanguard jingle is in my head again now!)

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

(That bloody Vanguard jingle is in my head again now!)

Its OK, I have fallen in love with the Scarecrow off the Rightmove Advert, she could share my Duvet anyday of the week.

[Democorruptcy]

10 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

1 million Germans came to the uk in 1 year?

Not really, that was just one of my little embellishments to check who is paying attention - so good spot. Though in general isn't that what happens, people land in the EU then migrate upwards towards the UK for our bennies?

[DoINeedOne]

12 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Spooky,thats similar to what i see when i take a piss.

Great markets are shit, metals are shit, now @DurhamBorn eyesight is going to shit

[Virgil Caine]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Bennie reform is simple,replace child amounts with "family premium" ,so once you have a child you get the premium,but thats it,no extra for 2nd ,3rd child etc,say £65 a week on top of the £75 a single person gets.Means test away at 25% from £5k.Rent base on that,so two bedrooms only.Fund councils to build shared facilities housing like old peoples homes are like,so you can have 3 beds there,but shared kitchen,bathroom.Everyone can get a room if needed,but not very nice for longer term.

Another that would really help would be to extend bennie cap to those working and on sickness benneis.

Most of the ones driving around here in Range Rover on bennies is because their partners work but arent down as with them.I dont think they police it at all now,everyone i know on bennies is defrauding on one way or another.

Very likely we are at a tipping point where welfare goes up quicker than can be sustained now QE is over.Wealth taxes or bennie cuts.

Shared facilities in public housing was quite common even into the 1960s even for people in full time employment. When I was born my parents lived in just such a property. They had two bedrooms but the kitchen etc was shared. My sister in law lived in something similar in Islington in the 1970s.

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

I posted a bit recently about one of the analysts lowering the price target 230 to 180 that seemed to knocked them a bit. Though the asset managers in general have gone down recently HL, JUP.

(That bloody Vanguard jingle is in my head again now!)

I think what is interesting (for me) is Aberdeen is about 80% of its price at March 2020, shows a 9% divi (no guarantee of course) and a low P/E. HL is only around 60% of its March 2020 price, its divi and p/e are strong albeit lower than Aberdeen . Those are both hefty falls from March 2020, when the FTSE was at just over 5000.

However MnG (again great potential divi etc) is up by someway on its March 2020 price. 

I don't see March 2020 as some analytical genius process on my part or even a reason for me to buy never mind anyone else... @Harley and others have much better methodology. I just find it interesting how sentiment for various shares can vary so much. 

I do like these (all three) and may take another ladder on HL or Abdn today.

However there are others coming up to pick from with Synthomer (mentioned by DB but interesting by someone outside this forum too) which has lost 25% in the last 2 weeks.  

I also note those telecoms seem to be steady away....no ladders for me on those just at the moment. 

[reformed nice guy]

Does anyone have a view on concrete + aggregate mega companies?

Heidelbergcement and Holcim were two that are looking cheap.

Low P/E, seem like decent debt profiles, lots of depreciated capital on the books, relatively high margins.

Downside for Heidelbergcement is that its German in origin but both have massive overseas operations, particularly Holcim which I think is the largest in the world in the field.

[BWW]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Bennie reform is simple,replace child amounts with "family premium" ,so once you have a child you get the premium,but thats it,no extra for 2nd ,3rd child etc,say £65 a week on top of the £75 a single person gets.Means test away at 25% from £5k.Rent base on that,so two bedrooms only.Fund councils to build shared facilities housing like old peoples homes are like,so you can have 3 beds there,but shared kitchen,bathroom.Everyone can get a room if needed,but not very nice for longer term.

Another that would really help would be to extend bennie cap to those working and on sickness benneis.

Most of the ones driving around here in Range Rover on bennies is because their partners work but arent down as with them.I dont think they police it at all now,everyone i know on bennies is defrauding on one way or another.

Very likely we are at a tipping point where welfare goes up quicker than can be sustained now QE is over.Wealth taxes or bennie cuts.

Alternatively replace right to free dosh with right to hours work at min wage.

Then have the jobcentre repurposed as gangmasters and sell the labour at very low cost [at a loss] to farmers / industries needing cleaners / etc / etc. Total cost is less than bennies because cost is exactly amount now paid as bennies.

Don't show up or don't work and don't get paid. Good training for workplace which may start to look more attractive to many.

[Chewing Grass]

12 minutes ago, BWW said:

Then have the jobcentre repurposed as gangmasters and sell the labour at very low cost

So what you are saying is repurpose the DHSS along the lines of the German SS and supply labour like they did to the HGW & Siemens etc.

[Chewing Grass]

39 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Does anyone have a view on concrete + aggregate mega companies?

Heidelbergcement and Holcim were two that are looking cheap.

Low P/E, seem like decent debt profiles, lots of depreciated capital on the books, relatively high margins.

Downside for Heidelbergcement is that its German in origin but both have massive overseas operations, particularly Holcim which I think is the largest in the world in the field.

Concrete requires Cement, Cement is very energy intensive, high costs = cancelled construction contracts and a fall in the demand for concrete (cement).

[janch]

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/whos-still-buying-fossil-fuels-russia

[Axeman123]

27 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

So what you are saying is repurpose the DHSS...

I bet they have a sale on...

[BWW]

15 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

So what you are saying is repurpose the DHSS along the lines of the German SS and supply labour like they did to the HGW & Siemens etc.

On that basis any temp agency is just like the SS too.

I think the problem with the SS may have been to do with freedom of choice.

Didn't the SS have any green policies so we can call them nazis too?

[janch]

I've been buying the own brands for years......trouble is I can no longer go cheaper but people are cutting back so there are more YRS items than before, especially fruit and veg.

For clothes has anyone looked in Poundland recently?  They started doing clothing a year or so back and it's just as good as Primark/Peacocks etc.....cheap and cheerful.

Talking of Primark as a few were on here the other day, I regularly shopped there years ago before it was a thing.  The best jacket I ever had was £15 and lasted at least ten years before the zip broke.  I used to buy a lot of clothing for my kids and would cut the labels off as it was grossly uncool for them to be seen in Primark stuff yet the things I bought they loved.  Funny how now it's desirable.

[HousePriceMania]

Nasdaq nose down.

[HousePriceMania]

Brace Brace Brace

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/city-jobs-banking-rishi-tax-numis-b1009322.html

 

BUSINESS

City braces for summer jobs cull as new London stock market floats dry up

you'd not have just bought a £3m pad in Surrey in case you missed out on the race for space. ( I know someone who has ).

[HousePriceMania]

Was thinking of going hiking up a hill in the lake district with my child on Saturday....the price of B&Bs are starting at £70, with £300 for come crappy hotels.

Who is paying these prices ? 

I'll make him wake up some hills locally instead

[Red Debt Redemption]

4 hours ago, Pip321 said:

Shopping this morning.

I like no added sugar heinz beans. Just picked some up today at the pound shop £2.75 for 4 pack. Sell by was July 2023👍🏻

As ever eggs, milk, orange juice, bread and fruit all bought from M&S this morning for much cheaper (ie 20% cheaper) than our ‘cheap local Co-op’. Those without cars and who can’t buy bulk will suffer. 

Did notice the ‘curry pack’ ie rice, naan, 3 curries, onion barge, at M&S was £10 is now £12. Found one with a sticker on…but still £10, ouch.

We favour M&S for two reasons….the staff are superb despite the shitty customers, and the fruit definitely lasts longer  

Then we had free lattes at the coffee shop. We go twice a week and our loyalty card came up trumps today.

(this post is starting to sound like a Facebook tosser with pictures of my breakfast for uninterested readers🤦🏻‍♂️) 

So my point….this morning a saved £5 but my shares dropped £1k 😆😆🥳. No worries, long term I am sure I am in the right place. 

What's instead of the sugar in Heinz, aspartame? 

[DoINeedOne]

Not sure if this was posted but HFEL Far East Income holdings as of end of February were these

[JMD]

2 hours ago, BWW said:

Alternatively replace right to free dosh with right to hours work at min wage.

Then have the jobcentre repurposed as gangmasters and sell the labour at very low cost [at a loss] to farmers / industries needing cleaners / etc / etc. Total cost is less than bennies because cost is exactly amount now paid as bennies.

Don't show up or don't work and don't get paid. Good training for workplace which may start to look more attractive to many.

Sounds rather like US Workfare? ...wasn't the programme extended under Clinton? He even put a 5 year cap on it, who'd have thunk it!

[Axeman123]

Sven calling a top in yields, indicating market expectations of a fed pivot. He has form for nailing these turns as well.

 

 

[Axeman123]

...and now we know what yields were pricing in (as predicted)

Will we even get a raise at the July meeting? That would certainly explain the urgency for a bumper rise last time around, as the final chance...

[Lightly Toasted]

19 minutes ago, JMD said:

Sounds rather like US Workfare? ...wasn't the programme extended under Clinton? He even put a 5 year cap on it, who'd have thunk it!

There was a memorable post (pretty sure on TOS) suggesting having a building where claimants have to spend 8 hours each workday, just sitting at a desk. Benefits would depend on attendance.

The idea could be fine-tuned to be more useful but even as it is, it might (a) motivate people to do something actually productive and (b) provide an insight into what the world of office work is actually like