Where will the property bubble burst first?

[With a crooked smile]

On 24/01/2022 at 13:50, HousePriceMania said:

Where will the property bubble burst first...on the stock exchange is perhaps the answer

 

 

Yawn, seeing what you want to see again Count? Look at cloud stocks going through post covid stock rotation. A similar graph to PB. What you've posted really means nothing of significance. 

[Innkeeper]

1 hour ago, With a crooked smile said:

Yawn, seeing what you want to see again Count? Look at cloud stocks going through post covid stock rotation. A similar graph to PB. What you've posted really means nothing of significance. 

Er, this is a UK property bubble thread and PB’s drop is of great significance.  Even more so if you’re holding shares.

No idea what the above stocks have to do with UK property...

[With a crooked smile]

1 minute ago, Innkeeper said:

Er, this is a UK property bubble thread and PB’s drop is of great significance.  Even more so if you’re holding shares.

No idea what the above stocks have to do with UK property...

What I'm pointing out is PBs share price has little to do with house prices or market activity. Look at PBs share preformance over the last 2 years and market activity /prices they are completely diverged. 

TheCount sees what TheCount wants to see. 

[Bobthebuilder]

40 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

TheCount sees what TheCount wants to see. 

I think we are all guilty of that.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

Yawn, seeing what you want to see again Count? Look at cloud stocks going through post covid stock rotation. A similar graph to PB. What you've posted really means nothing of significance. 

key metric I like is how many months invetory are we at.LE2 is a psotcode I know

currently 62 semi's for sale

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=OUTCODE^1431&propertyTypes=semi-detached&secondaryDisplayPropertyType=semidetachedhouses&includeSSTC=false&mustHave=&dontShow=&furnishTypes=&keywords=

 

At current rates of sales for semis,that's roughly 2 months invetory at worst,at worst it's 45 days

 

for flats it's different,roughly about 10+ months inventory .

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=OUTCODE^1431&propertyTypes=flat&primaryDisplayPropertyType=flats&includeSSTC=false&mustHave=&dontShow=&furnishTypes=&keywords=

 

this is two marekts at least,one that's unlikely to see anythign but a rise (1 to 2 months inventory is nothing let's be honest)and the otehr prone to falls/weakness.

 

 

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Innkeeper said:

Er, this is a UK property bubble thread and PB’s drop is of great significance.  Even more so if you’re holding shares.

No idea what the above stocks have to do with UK property...

PB's price drop is an indcator of how badly they're faring,not a sign of the housing market more generally.

RMV has twenty bagged over 13 years

 

 

[Boon]

Purplebricks drop I think has more specifics to that company; a potential blizzard of deposit protection cases, the added problem of now employing staff rather than freelancers, competition now starting to bite and the basic product offering very little differentiation with that of others.

Their valuation is not much more than the cash they had in the bank at last reporting, but if things go wrong that cash is burned quickly.

I must agree with @sancho panzathat there are markets within markets, I thought the new year might see an uptick in volumes but this hasn't happened. More specifically in London I feel there is a tidal wave of pent-up supply in flats, lots haven't been listed due to no certificate, lots haven't been listed due to no certainty in cost. Despite what Gove says I reckon it might take ages for it to be resolved. So that wave might take more time.

PB also specialises in the shitter properties as well - when was the last time you saw something decent using them? 

So certainly in a couple of years I can see a case where house prices overall have shown a small increase, but PB share price being much weaker. If its another bad year with low volumes they might even choose to raise equity before their price gets too low.

[HousePriceMania]

8 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

 

"TheCount sees what TheCount wants to see. "

 

I think we are all guilty of that.

Got to laugh at the Irony of the troll loon calling someone TheCount when even Spunko's told him the count is in France, yip, we see what we want to see.

 

[HousePriceMania]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

PB's price drop is an indcator of how badly they're faring,not a sign of the housing market more generally.

RMV has twenty bagged over 13 years

 

 

They'd be faring a lot better if the housing market was booming and volumes were normal.

[spygirl]

11 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

What I'm pointing out is PBs share price has little to do with house prices or market activity. Look at PBs share preformance over the last 2 years and market activity /prices they are completely diverged. 

TheCount sees what TheCount wants to see. 

No, PB share [rice is a good proxy.

Ditto having a nosey into a bricks n mortar and seeing how many people are sat at desks.

None, in the palces I poke my noses in.

Most towns EA drags are empty.

And its not covid.

Market is - prices x transaction.

Cant have one without the other.

 

[With a crooked smile]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Got to laugh at the Irony of the troll loon calling someone TheCount when even Spunko's told him the count is in France, yip, we see what we want to see

Sorry I forgot, you guys just happened to share logins and once even lived in the same house. Very credible.

Clearly as a STR who's badly down you wouldnt compartmentalising yourself via multiple accounts ect. 

[Don Coglione]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Got to laugh at the Irony of the troll loon calling someone TheCount when even Spunko's told him the count is in France, yip, we see what we want to see.

 

 

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Boon said:

Purplebricks drop I think has more specifics to that company; a potential blizzard of deposit protection cases, the added problem of now employing staff rather than freelancers, competition now starting to bite and the basic product offering very little differentiation with that of others.

Their valuation is not much more than the cash they had in the bank at last reporting, but if things go wrong that cash is burned quickly.

I must agree with @sancho panzathat there are markets within markets, I thought the new year might see an uptick in volumes but this hasn't happened. More specifically in London I feel there is a tidal wave of pent-up supply in flats, lots haven't been listed due to no certificate, lots haven't been listed due to no certainty in cost. Despite what Gove says I reckon it might take ages for it to be resolved. So that wave might take more time.

PB also specialises in the shitter properties as well - when was the last time you saw something decent using them? 

So certainly in a couple of years I can see a case where house prices overall have shown a small increase, but PB share price being much weaker. If its another bad year with low volumes they might even choose to raise equity before their price gets too low.

I think PB got a ehad start by charging £500 for access to RM but the competition competed and cut their charges,improved service.ALos,crucially,volumes hitting the market have been really poor.RM used to publish their houses for sale data on a historic basis but now don't.

LE2 used to have 700 + properties for sale,nowadays it's 350 and been worse.PB's cashflow relies on strong lsiting rates

They're screwed structurally in the same way countrywide was but for different reasons

 

[mh9000]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

No, PB share [rice is a good proxy.

Ditto having a nosey into a bricks n mortar and seeing how many people are sat at desks.

None, in the palces I poke my noses in.

Most towns EA drags are empty.

And its not covid.

Market is - prices x transaction.

Cant have one without the other.

 

What I don't get, I think I mentioned elsewhere,  is how was 2021 a record year for transactions (1.5 million or thereabouts) but looking round there is sod all for sale which is driving prices up?

[spygirl]

3 minutes ago, mh9000 said:

What I don't get, I think I mentioned elsewhere,  is how was 2021 a record year for transactions (1.5 million or thereabouts) but looking round there is sod all for sale which is driving prices up?

No, I dont think it was 'a record year'

Just not as shit as al the years since 2008.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/mortgage-approvals

Again,. as Ive said on other threads - it looks like the UK has never regained the heady heights of 1988, never mind 2008.

I have a distinct memory of going to an EA with mate, a how was trying to sell his place in ~1995. He was going in to complain about lack of interest.

When I bumped into the Ea, in a pub, a few weeks alter, his pretty much exact quote was - 'These have been worst years Ive ever know' I think became an EA in the mid to late 70s.

The UK market overall, has been ~3/4 of the 'worst market known' since ~2008.

Its even worse, when you consider the number of FTBS, which are the future equity/sales.

Get out of London/Se and the numbers are even worse.

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=scarborough&all=1

Basically level since 2004 - coming up to 20 years now.

Your chances of selling are ~1/5 of what it was in 1995 - 

		Jan 1995	Oct 2021	Change
	Detached	11	2	-82%
	Semi	20	4	-80%
	Terraced	17	5	-71%
	Flat	7	7	0%

 

And all the time, hem owners are getting older and theres few if any FTBers looking to move up.

If IRs return to ~5% then I can another 20/30% coming off locally.

 

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

Where will the bubble burst first...America ?
 

 

[HousePriceMania]

Now, when you put it like this

 

 

[mh9000]

^ genuine question, what's the significance of that?

Less volume of transactions so less profit for them?

[Option5]

2 minutes ago, mh9000 said:

^ genuine question, what's the significance of that?

Less volume of transactions so less profit for them?

Yes, estate sales agents are struggling as they only make money on sales, with add on fees from solicitors, mortgage arrangement, etc.

No sales means no sales fee and no add one.

Some are offering to waivetheir fee to get custom hoping to rely on the add ons to stay afloat.

The ones who'll survive are those who deal with rentals as well as sales.

[With a crooked smile]

1 hour ago, Option5 said:

The ones who'll survive are those who deal with rentals as well as sales.

I thought that was almost all of them these days. 

[spygirl]

3 hours ago, Option5 said:

Yes, estate sales agents are struggling as they only make money on sales, with add on fees from solicitors, mortgage arrangement, etc.

No sales means no sales fee and no add one.

Some are offering to waivetheir fee to get custom hoping to rely on the add ons to stay afloat.

The ones who'll survive are those who deal with rentals as well as sales.

No letting fees now, at least on the tenant.

 

[Wight Flight]

6 hours ago, spygirl said:

No letting fees now, at least on the tenant.

 

And very few rentals being put on the market.

It's a lose lose for them.

[With a crooked smile]

1 hour ago, Wight Flight said:

And very few rentals being put on the market.

It's a lose lose for them.

They take a % of the monthly rent. It's the change over that actually involves something other than just running the monthly accounts. I would have thought a stable tenancy ticking over for years was better for them than having to bring stuff to market, pay advertising fees do viewings ect. 

[Wight Flight]

4 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

They take a % of the monthly rent. It's the change over that actually involves something other than just running the monthly accounts. I would have thought a stable tenancy ticking over for years was better for them than having to bring stuff to market, pay advertising fees do viewings ect. 

Not the ones I know. Finders fee and then the landlord thinks they can do it all themselves.

[With a crooked smile]

4 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Not the ones I know. Finders fee and then the landlord thinks they can do it all themselves.

Interesting, weve never bothered with finders fee. I've only ever done fully by agent or simply done it ourselves. It's not rocket science. 

I don't ever remember paying a finders fee when fully managed but we're pretty good to our tenants keep the place well maintained and rarey raise the rent outside of re assessing it when people leave. I recon our average tenancy is 4-5 years.