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Where will the property bubble burst first?


spunko
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2 hours ago, Hancock said:

Thought id look at HPC website for the first time in ages.

Merely an advertising board these days, and unreadable.

image.thumb.png.7e3d2f03b4bfef370bf88357763a764d.png

 

They must now be coming close to the end of the "How to utterly destroy a thriving internet forum in four easy stages" Haynes manual.

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6 hours ago, Hancock said:

Thought id look at HPC website for the first time in ages.

Merely an advertising board these days, and unreadable.

image.thumb.png.7e3d2f03b4bfef370bf88357763a764d.png

TBF, just run an ad-blocker. I got so fed up with the clutter there and elsewhere. This site is blessing.

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I cant believe that the author of this article can claim it "risks creating a housing bubble"

For some reason i've a free subscription to the DT, as like fuck would i pay to read such bollocks.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/05/bank-england-poised-loosen-mortgage-lending-rules/

image.png.56e3d9df6ced82d2196f8f3a404568ec.png

The Bank of England is poised to loosen mortgage lending rules introduced in the wake of the financial crisis, in a move economists have warned risks sparking a housing bubble.

Officials are understood to be considering softening affordability checks for borrowers as part of a review of the market restrictions that concludes next week.

One of the measures being looked at is reducing the additional interest rate charge used to test borrowers’ ability to pay the reversion rate after an initial deal ends.

This would benefit first-time buyers, as tight rules designed to protect them against a return to old fashioned high interest rates has made it harder for some would-be homeowners in an era of apparently permanently low borrowing costs.

Tighter checks were brought in in 2014 to try to stop a repeat of the crisis.

However, economists warned that relaxing the lending rules risked creating a housing bubble by propelling property prices to “unsustainable levels”.

House prices soared 12pc in the 12 months to September, growing at a faster pace than the run-up to the financial crisis after being boosted by the stamp duty cut. Nationwide warned last week that house sales in 2021 are also close to levels last seen in 2007, just before the property market crash.

The average home is now worth 15pc more than before the pandemic

Andrew Wishart, housing economist at Capital Economics, said: “Loosening the affordability test increases the chances that you continue to get large increases in house prices, which would start to make us worry about the housing market entering bubble territory.

“It would help perpetuate very strong demand that might take prices to an unsustainable level.”

Mr Wishart warned prices could suffer a “correction” and slump if growth continues at its current rapid pace.

He said: “This is exactly the time when we probably want that affordability test to make a difference and slow down the most stretched lending a little bit, and cool things off a little.”

Lenders have to check homebuyers can afford repayments once any initial interest rate deal ends by testing their ability to pay the reversion rate. This is typically their bank’s standard variable rate (SVR), plus three percentage points. This is designed to make sure borrowers are not too vulnerable to higher interest rates in future.

However, interest rates have stayed at rock bottom levels for far longer than officials anticipated when they brought in the rules, while a rise in the base rate to 3pc now seems outlandish.

At the same time, SVRs have held steady at between 3.6pc and 4.6pc over the past decade, even as initial rates on mortgages have plunged, making the test tougher than was initially expected.

As a result, the Bank of England is looking at softening the affordability check, potentially reducing the additional interest rate charge from its current level of three percentage points.

Martin Beck at the EY Item Club said the move would be “odd given how loose mortgage lending has been – it has not been hard to get a loan”.

But he added that changing the rules after the stamp duty holiday has ended means officials are “not adding fuel to the fire; they are supporting the market at a time when headwinds are building”.

Kallum Pickering at Berenberg Bank said changing the rules could be proportionate, as banks have built up larger capital buffers in the years since the financial crisis, meaning they can withstand losses from risky loans without cutting back on lending to the rest of the economy.

At the same time, households are not heavily indebted by historic standards, with many building up significant savings over Covid lockdowns.

David Hollingworth, at brokerage L&C Mortgages, said the rules bite particularly for first-time buyers who typically have to accumulate a large deposit and then stretch to get a large mortgage to get onto the housing ladder.

Officials are also reviewing the rule which limits lending to buyers borrowing more than 4.5-times their income.

Currently such large loans can make up no more than 15pc of a bank’s total loanbook.

The Bank of England declined to comment.

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Lol, so when prices move up another 10% in a year, what then? Another loosening of the rules?

Cannot wait for the day for these cunts to dig a hole they can't get out of.

If you owned a property you would pretty much be like the journo - you know deep down its bad news but outwardly you like it because you benefit so ain't gonna call it out.

The 'I'm alright jack' attitude basically assures the Conservatives of power as most people's barometer of wealth is their property price. Stuff like this only increases that number of people, most notably the young who will be properly all-in.

Two effects for the government, pretty much impossible for Labour to get in, also they can do whatever shit they like as long as the house prices are respected.

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9 hours ago, Hancock said:

I cant believe that the author of this article can claim it "risks creating a housing bubble"

For some reason i've a free subscription to the DT, as like fuck would i pay to read such bollocks.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/05/bank-england-poised-loosen-mortgage-lending-rules/

image.png.56e3d9df6ced82d2196f8f3a404568ec.png

The Bank of England is poised to loosen mortgage lending rules introduced in the wake of the financial crisis, in a move economists have warned risks sparking a housing bubble.

Officials are understood to be considering softening affordability checks for borrowers as part of a review of the market restrictions that concludes next week.

One of the measures being looked at is reducing the additional interest rate charge used to test borrowers’ ability to pay the reversion rate after an initial deal ends.

This would benefit first-time buyers, as tight rules designed to protect them against a return to old fashioned high interest rates has made it harder for some would-be homeowners in an era of apparently permanently low borrowing costs.

Tighter checks were brought in in 2014 to try to stop a repeat of the crisis.

However, economists warned that relaxing the lending rules risked creating a housing bubble by propelling property prices to “unsustainable levels”.

House prices soared 12pc in the 12 months to September, growing at a faster pace than the run-up to the financial crisis after being boosted by the stamp duty cut. Nationwide warned last week that house sales in 2021 are also close to levels last seen in 2007, just before the property market crash.

The average home is now worth 15pc more than before the pandemic

Andrew Wishart, housing economist at Capital Economics, said: “Loosening the affordability test increases the chances that you continue to get large increases in house prices, which would start to make us worry about the housing market entering bubble territory.

“It would help perpetuate very strong demand that might take prices to an unsustainable level.”

Mr Wishart warned prices could suffer a “correction” and slump if growth continues at its current rapid pace.

He said: “This is exactly the time when we probably want that affordability test to make a difference and slow down the most stretched lending a little bit, and cool things off a little.”

Lenders have to check homebuyers can afford repayments once any initial interest rate deal ends by testing their ability to pay the reversion rate. This is typically their bank’s standard variable rate (SVR), plus three percentage points. This is designed to make sure borrowers are not too vulnerable to higher interest rates in future.

However, interest rates have stayed at rock bottom levels for far longer than officials anticipated when they brought in the rules, while a rise in the base rate to 3pc now seems outlandish.

At the same time, SVRs have held steady at between 3.6pc and 4.6pc over the past decade, even as initial rates on mortgages have plunged, making the test tougher than was initially expected.

As a result, the Bank of England is looking at softening the affordability check, potentially reducing the additional interest rate charge from its current level of three percentage points.

Martin Beck at the EY Item Club said the move would be “odd given how loose mortgage lending has been – it has not been hard to get a loan”.

But he added that changing the rules after the stamp duty holiday has ended means officials are “not adding fuel to the fire; they are supporting the market at a time when headwinds are building”.

Kallum Pickering at Berenberg Bank said changing the rules could be proportionate, as banks have built up larger capital buffers in the years since the financial crisis, meaning they can withstand losses from risky loans without cutting back on lending to the rest of the economy.

At the same time, households are not heavily indebted by historic standards, with many building up significant savings over Covid lockdowns.

David Hollingworth, at brokerage L&C Mortgages, said the rules bite particularly for first-time buyers who typically have to accumulate a large deposit and then stretch to get a large mortgage to get onto the housing ladder.

Officials are also reviewing the rule which limits lending to buyers borrowing more than 4.5-times their income.

Currently such large loans can make up no more than 15pc of a bank’s total loanbook.

The Bank of England declined to comment.

"old fashioned high interest rates".

old fashioned

What a funny turn of phrase.

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10 hours ago, Boon said:

Lol, so when prices move up another 10% in a year, what then? Another loosening of the rules?

Cannot wait for the day for these cunts to dig a hole they can't get out of.

If you owned a property you would pretty much be like the journo - you know deep down its bad news but outwardly you like it because you benefit so ain't gonna call it out.

The 'I'm alright jack' attitude basically assures the Conservatives of power as most people's barometer of wealth is their property price. Stuff like this only increases that number of people, most notably the young who will be properly all-in.

Two effects for the government, pretty much impossible for Labour to get in, also they can do whatever shit they like as long as the house prices are respected.

 

What however is the advantage of higher house prices for those who own them?  People really don't think this through.

My house is up 64% since I bought it.

If it was a shareholding I could realise the profits by selling it and trebles all round.

I however need a house in which to live; so if I sell it then I need to buy another one which is also 64% up.

HPI is an unrealisable paper profit. 

IMO why people welcome it is because in their minds it puts them upon a higher social platform than non-homeowners. They can look at them and say that they don't have a half million pound house and, more to the point, can't afford to buy one.

That they also can't afford to buy one, but just happen to have experienced high HPI since buying, doesn't seem to cross their minds.

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Bus Stop Boxer
2 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

What however is the advantage of higher house prices for those who own them?  People really don't think this through.

My house is up 64% since I bought it.

If it was a shareholding I could realise the profits by selling it and trebles all round.

I however need a house in which to live; so if I sell it then I need to buy another one which is also 64% up.

HPI is an unrealisable paper profit. 

IMO why people welcome it is because in their minds it puts them upon a higher social platform than non-homeowners. They can look at them and say that they don't have a half million pound house and, more to the point, can't afford to buy one.

That they also can't afford to buy one, but just happen to have experienced high HPI since buying, doesn't seem to cross their minds.

I've just got a great price for my place, and so it follows, i'm absolutely stuck finding an improved replacement.

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15 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

I've just got a great price for my place, and so it follows, i'm absolutely stuck finding an improved replacement.

 

Yup.

One of the local radio presenters this summer told about his friend who had put his house, in Cornwall but the location wasn't otherwise specified, up for sale this summer and was delighted to see it very quickly go for £15k over the asking price.

Only then he found out that he couldn't find anywhere he could afford to buy.

Who'd a thunk it?

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I have said it before on here and Halifax is confirming it yet again, not only are house prices holding but they are gaining momentum. I have a sneaking suspicion  CPI inflation will also create more house price inflation as the BOE refuse to control.

Debt is the new God and savers are mugs, not my thoughts I might add but just the reality of UK 2021/22

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Chewing Grass
3 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

I have said it before on here and Halifax is confirming it yet again, not only are house prices holding but they are gaining momentum. I have a sneaking suspicion  CPI inflation will also create more house price inflation as the BOE refuse to control.

Debt is the new God and savers are mugs, not my thoughts I might add but just the reality of UK 2021/22

Just done my first three characters postcode search on Rightmove and its down to 117, was 150 in the summer and 200 ten years ago. Supply must be at its lowest ever other than new builds which are not obviously listed unless.

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6 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Just done my first three characters postcode search on Rightmove and its down to 117, was 150 in the summer and 200 ten years ago. Supply must be at its lowest ever other than new builds which are not obviously listed unless.

And that tells you what?

To me it probably means there is a shortage of demand and people will pay over the odds and reading the DT yesterday there are now rumours that the BOE are going to relax mortgage lending even more.

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55 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

reading the DT yesterday there are now rumours that the BOE are going to relax mortgage lending even more.

Half the time rumours in the papaers are trial balloons, and the other half special pleading. I see unsubstantiated rumours of looser regulation of lending as the weakest form of house price propaganda, below government talk of same, and both of those far below the firehose of taxpayer cash being pointed at the market ie HTB.

If that is the best they can muster, it rather seems the market is being left high and dry.

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5 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Half the time rumours in the papaers are trial balloons, and the other half special pleading. I see unsubstantiated rumours of looser regulation of lending as the weakest form of house price propaganda, below government talk of same, and both of those far below the firehose of taxpayer cash being pointed at the market ie HTB.

If that is the best they can muster, it rather seems the market is being left high and dry.

As someone who goes way back to 2015 on TOS I have heard it all before and though I don't rule out a property crash I think one now is very unlikey going on our immigration and welfare breeding program

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30 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

image.png.f07ffa4ae373ed614c363d5ef4a434a9.png

Probably well over priced to start with and if they are grade 2 listed I would not go near it, they might be great to look at from over the road in say your more comfortable Victorian or Edwardian home, but you try heating and maintaining it, the work is constant.

I have several customers in Barrington Cambs in these type of homes built by Oliver Cromwell as a reward to his loyal,  mates, they are just a nightmare to look after and you are forced to do so

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On 05/12/2021 at 12:05, Hancock said:

Thought id look at HPC website for the first time in ages.

Merely an advertising board these days, and unreadable.

image.thumb.png.7e3d2f03b4bfef370bf88357763a764d.png

I bought my first home at 22 and most of my mates did the same around the 20 to 25 mark, my Sister got her first place a 18.

Times have changed and not for the better for many young

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22 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

I bought my first home at 22 and most of my mates did the same around the 20 to 25 mark, my Sister got her first place a 18.

Times have changed and not for the better for many young

Getting worse by the day in this country!

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Bus Stop Boxer
On 07/12/2021 at 10:32, haroldshand said:

I have said it before on here and Halifax is confirming it yet again, not only are house prices holding but they are gaining momentum. I have a sneaking suspicion  CPI inflation will also create more house price inflation as the BOE refuse to control.

Debt is the new God and savers are mugs, not my thoughts I might add but just the reality of UK 2021/22

Prices coming down in my 5 fingered bit of Dorset.

Asking prices were up but air is coming out of balloon post SD coming back.

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HousePriceMania
On 04/12/2021 at 17:18, Wight Flight said:

Sorry. Bit confused here. What is odd about that?

https://www.healthline.com/health/polydactyly#:~:text=It occurs in 1 in,in 1 in 150 births.

 

  • It’s found more frequently in the African American population, occurring in 1 in 150 births.

 

Surprisingly common !!!

has anyone met someone with 6 fingers ?

I think Sunake might have 7 the way he's pickpocket-ting everyone

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