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January 2022... Halifax house prices up yet again MoM 1.1%


haroldshand

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haroldshand

https://www.forres-gazette.co.uk/news/national/average-uk-house-price-rose-by-more-than-24-500-in-2021-says-halifax-37859/

 

Seriously I just burst out laughing.

Tanking economy, fucked up criminal financial and economic institutions, out of control welfare state and a green light at Dover with a nice meal and a bed for any dinghy  immigrant/s that just want to let himself in to the UK without checks  this year and stay for good with housing to follow and I dare say more of their family members in the years to come arriving "for a holiday"

Country is fucked..

But I do see that Nigel Farage is talking of making a comeback and rumour of Tories defecting to Reform party

 

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Frank Hovis

Without resorting to cliche, when inflation is roaring and interest rates on cash deposits are 0.1% then it is a rational response to put your money into something other than cash and for most people that other is houses.

It's not an original thought but I can only see house prices falling when interest rates rise making mortgages more expensive and returns on cash deposits better.

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TBH this year is gonna be crucial I think.

If sales volumes don't return to the market, then it is much easier for these rises to continue. But if volumes do return, that's a lot of people wanting to get out. Couple that with interest rate rises - not just 0.25% -  and that is a recipie for a melt down.

Neither are nailed on to happen, but more likely than last year.

I think we'll see an oddity this year in the papers; a raft of people who on paper have assets worth hundreds of thousands, yet at the same time not being able to afford heat and food.

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Axeman123
19 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Without resorting to cliche, when inflation is roaring and interest rates on cash deposits are 0.1% then it is a rational response to put your money into something other than cash and for most people that other is houses.

It's not an original thought but I can only see house prices falling when interest rates rise making mortgages more expensive and returns on cash deposits better.

US 10 year bond yield has moved up a fair bit lately, and likely has started a bigger move in that direction. That feeds through to funding costs of lenders, regardless of base rates etc.

The big worry here would be the return of TFS, under the guise of "helping" people with the cost of living. Very low risk of that though IMO.

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Frank Hovis
10 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

US 10 year bond yield has moved up a fair bit lately, and likely has started a bigger move in that direction. That feeds through to funding costs of lenders, regardless of base rates etc.

The big worry here would be the return of TFS, under the guise of "helping" people with the cost of living. Very low risk of that though IMO.

Yes but it has to move a lot; half a percent is nothing.

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Chewing Grass

Once they are done with importing HK Chinese there is no scope left for increases so prices will plateau due to lack of entrants at the bottom.

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Frank Hovis
27 minutes ago, Boon said:

think we'll see an oddity this year in the papers; a raft of people who on paper have assets worth hundreds of thousands, yet at the same time not being able to afford heat and food.

 

I've mentioned that I know an elderly couple whose house, given the current lunacy in coastal Cornwall, is worth about £800k.

It was his parents' house and he has lived in it for over sixty years.

They are both on AFAIK state pension only, they had low paid retail jobs their whole lives, and after paying the council tax and utilities are basically skint.

When both of those go up above inflation this year I can genuinely see their having to use a food bank.

Whilst living in an £800k house that they can barely afford to heat.

They haven't benefitted from HPI despite their paper wealth.

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Wight Flight
7 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

I've mentioned that I know an elderly couple whose house, given the current lunacy in coastal Cornwall, is worth about £800k.

It was his parents' house and he has lived in it for over sixty years.

They are both on AFAIK state pension only, they had low paid retail jobs their whole lives, and after paying the council tax and utilities are basically skint.

When both of those go up above inflation this year I can genuinely see their having to use a food bank.

Whilst living in an £800k house that they can barely afford to heat.

They haven't benefitted from HPI despite their paper wealth.

Why don't they just equity release £400k and live out their last days like kings?

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Frank Hovis
11 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Why don't they just equity release £400k and live out their last days like kings?

 

They are simple people who deal mainly in cash so they are probably ripe for the plucking by an equity release salesmen.

I think that the desire is to pass on some money to their children / grandchildren so that they can actually afford to buy in coastal Cornwall.

If they did spend it all then their grandchildren would be left renting somewhere inland.

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Yadda yadda yadda
10 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Why don't they just equity release £400k and live out their last days like kings?

Or just sell and move into something smaller or inland and cheaper. Foolish to live with the stress of poverty when you have such a valuable asset.

Presumably equity release can be done incrementally so £x per year. Eventually higher interest rates would make that sum run away but they would remain solvent longer than they would remain alive.

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HousePriceMania
7 hours ago, haroldshand said:

https://www.forres-gazette.co.uk/news/national/average-uk-house-price-rose-by-more-than-24-500-in-2021-says-halifax-37859/

 

Seriously I just burst out laughing.

Tanking economy, fucked up criminal financial and economic institutions, out of control welfare state and a green light at Dover with a nice meal and a bed for any dinghy  immigrant/s that just want to let himself in to the UK without checks  this year and stay for good with housing to follow and I dare say more of their family members in the years to come arriving "for a holiday"

Country is fucked..

But I do see that Nigel Farage is talking of making a comeback and rumour of Tories defecting to Reform party

 

I never realized the Halifax had a hand in  Rightmove.

 

Says it all.

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King Penda
20 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

I've mentioned that I know an elderly couple whose house, given the current lunacy in coastal Cornwall, is worth about £800k.

It was his parents' house and he has lived in it for over sixty years.

They are both on AFAIK state pension only, they had low paid retail jobs their whole lives, and after paying the council tax and utilities are basically skint.

When both of those go up above inflation this year I can genuinely see their having to use a food bank.

Whilst living in an £800k house that they can barely afford to heat.

They haven't benefitted from HPI despite their paper wealth.

They could go stay with friends for 2 weeks in summer and rent it out to holidaymakers how much would that get them for the winter months ?

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Frank Hovis
19 minutes ago, King Penda said:

They could go stay with friends for 2 weeks in summer and rent it out to holidaymakers how much would that get them for the winter months ?

 

Six grand.

However they really couldn't because it is in a poor state of repair.

This is a theme that @JoeDavola also picks up upon: elderly couples living in big old houses that they do not have the fitness or money to keep in a good state of repair. Despite the sky high value of the UK's housing stock its state of repair hasn't been this bad since the Blitz.

 

One of their relatives is in the property business and he said, maybe twenty years ago, that it would cost £100k to bring it up to a decent standard.

Make that £150k - £200k now but I doubt that they even have £20k.

 

 

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JoeDavola
7 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

This is a theme that @JoeDavola also picks up upon: elderly couples living in big old houses that they do not have the fitness or money to keep in a good state of repair.

And if the previous generation of retired older people couldn't afford to heat/repair these houses....well I was gonna ask how the coming generations will given soaring energy and material costs but I'm guessing the answer probably is "the upcoming generations will never retire".

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Frank Hovis
4 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

And if the previous generation of retired older people couldn't afford to heat/repair these houses....well I was gonna ask how the coming generations will given soaring energy and material costs but I'm guessing the answer probably is "the upcoming generations will never retire".

 

And also the renovations will be done by BtLers.

Though they prefer the smaller houses which are two or three bed because the yield is much better.

This is a big four bed; they have a much lower rental yield.

Maybe they will go the way of another I saw in Helston where a big double fronted terrace was being converted into four flats; presumably to rent.

Though where the tenants will park escapes me.

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I think this cycle you’ll see multiple family generations under one roof for this very reason. Especially as private care gets decimated, energy bills increase, food bills increase, I think it’s a certainty.

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Wight Flight
1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

This is a theme that @JoeDavola also picks up upon: elderly couples living in big old houses that they do not have the fitness or money to keep in a good state of repair. Despite the sky high value of the UK's housing stock its state of repair hasn't been this bad since the Blitz.

I saw a lot of that in Surrey.

The houses next door to West Hill golf club must be several £m each. But they are mainly knackered with decaying gardens.

Quite sad really.

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I worked in an office in the studio in the grounds of a big old house just off the Thames at Hampton Court. It had grounds down to the river (not the Thames, a tributary)

The house and studio belonged to a famous architect who died in 1980. His widow lived there alone until she passed away in 2018.

e1-11.jpg.a4e1614569c76c3a982e8d6d84cbaba4.jpg

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PatronizingGit

What happens when people's accrued covid bucks run out. 

I know a couple who, lucky for them, got furloughed jobs at the right time.

 

This couple had basically lived a bohemian lifestyle till late 2019, part time waitressing for her, food delivery for him when they needed the money, but spent most their time on the beach. Came back to the UK. Both got jobs on about £20k Laid off in April 2020. Full Furlough pay for a year, plus full bonus. So near 30k each. Plus they were working other jobs during lock downs. So, even after tax, likely got close to £100k between them for a year. 

This is a couple I doubt made much more than £10k between them annually on/near the beaches of Portugal/Spain the prior 10 years. 

 

I imagine we'll see a big increase in credit demand to replace the covid bucks. Indeed, looks like whats happening in the USA.

 

In Absolute and Percentage Terms, Consumer Credit Jumps the Most Ever - Mish Talk - Global Economic Trend Analysis

Housing first to fall?

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PatronizingGit
56 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

I saw a lot of that in Surrey.

The houses next door to West Hill golf club must be several £m each. But they are mainly knackered with decaying gardens.

Quite sad really.

Its the old 

"property IS my pension" (as if they'll sell it/downsize when required)

When that day comes, the wails of "all my memories are here, I can't leave"

And incessant daily mail headlines about the govt turfing Gladys out of her mansion. 

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Green Devil
On 07/01/2022 at 08:56, haroldshand said:

https://www.forres-gazette.co.uk/news/national/average-uk-house-price-rose-by-more-than-24-500-in-2021-says-halifax-37859/

 

Seriously I just burst out laughing.

Tanking economy, fucked up criminal financial and economic institutions, out of control welfare state and a green light at Dover with a nice meal and a bed for any dinghy  immigrant/s that just want to let himself in to the UK without checks  this year and stay for good with housing to follow and I dare say more of their family members in the years to come arriving "for a holiday"

Country is fucked..

But I do see that Nigel Farage is talking of making a comeback and rumour of Tories defecting to Reform party

 

Havent you twigged yet? 

Immigration is gdp growth. No wonder TPTB love it so much! 

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haroldshand
On 07/01/2022 at 13:11, Axeman123 said:

The big worry here would be the return of TFS, under the guise of "helping" people with the cost of living. Very low risk of that though IMO.

Yep, that one always pisses me off, so lovely how governments are so will to "help these poor people".

Funny how they are very unlikely to help those struggling with heating Bills 

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On 07/01/2022 at 13:25, Chewing Grass said:

Once they are done with importing HK Chinese there is no scope left for increases so prices will plateau due to lack of entrants at the bottom.

Population of India is over a billion. Are you sure?

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JoeDavola
On 08/01/2022 at 11:29, dnb24 said:

I think this cycle you’ll see multiple family generations under one roof for this very reason. Especially as private care gets decimated, energy bills increase, food bills increase, I think it’s a certainty.

Yes my parents house is a perfect multiple family home - 3 bathrooms ect… that they got cheap when prices crashed. The only bidders they had when they last tried selling it were Asian and Indian families who were moving multiple families in.

I don’t think they should sell the house at all as space is a great asset to have but it’s none of my business.

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On 08/01/2022 at 11:29, dnb24 said:

I think this cycle you’ll see multiple family generations under one roof for this very reason. Especially as private care gets decimated, energy bills increase, food bills increase, I think it’s a certainty.

We've just had the cycle where people stay at home due to unaffordable housing.

When housing becomes cheaper (which it will) then people will move out.

That is the certainty.

 

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