Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 4)

[Van Lady]

21 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I would love to know how that's possible. I am a bloody gas man ,and cannot get mine anywhere near that (even with theft), more like £300 a month.

You are either , taking the piss, or have something dodgy going on.

I think @DurhamBornhas fixed utility prices for a while.

Currently my gas/electric DD is £36 plus some pence per month with the £66 deduction/tax payer subsidy applied. I’ve always been a low gas/electricity user using slow cooker, top of stove for heating water/food and cooking food. Only use oven a couple of times a week at most and instead use an air fryer rather than using oven most days.

My home is heated by a multi fuel stove and all fuel to see me through winter and beyond was bought late April 2022. Replenishing supplies will be more expensive though but budgeted for.

Depends on size of home etc, my place is a small semi bungalow built around 1930’s.  Very warm home.
 

[XswampyX]

9 minutes ago, Van Lady said:

I think @DurhamBornhas fixed utility prices for a while.

If you had shares in EDF then £10,000 (1,000 shares) worth would pay out in dividends.

1000 x 0.12 x 4 = £480 a year.

Take that off your bill and you can still sell them.

 

[Bobthebuilder]

13 minutes ago, Van Lady said:

I think @DurhamBornhas fixed utility prices for a while.

Currently my gas/electric DD is £36 plus some pence per month with the £66 deduction/tax payer subsidy applied. I’ve always been a low gas/electricity user using slow cooker, top of stove for heating water/food and cooking food. Only use oven a couple of times a week at most and instead use an air fryer rather than using oven most days.

My home is heated by a multi fuel stove and all fuel to see me through winter and beyond was bought late April 2022. Replenishing supplies will be more expensive though but budgeted for.

Depends on size of home etc, my place is a small semi bungalow built around 1930’s.  Very warm home.
 

£36 a month is very close to the standing charge, if you use nothing.

[Van Lady]

1 minute ago, Bobthebuilder said:

£36 a month is very close to the standing charge, if you use nothing.

I just pay what they ask. I’m in credit to almost £200.

Had gas central heating on for days in the recent cold spell and just going to put it on  now before going to bed due to minus temps this evening.

I’ve cut back on hot water usage. Wash dishes only when sink basin is full and less bath water.

Sent readings after cold spell and as expected gas usage was up.

Someone called a few weeks ago from eon. Didn’t take readings for gas or electricity. He only looked at gas meter then went on his way. Suspected of fiddling maybe?

 

[JMD]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

One morbid thing is that im amazed lots of polos have not been murdered yet.They are destroying so many lives and refusing to reverse its only a matter of time i think.In past situations like this the ruling class has been removed and killed.

 

I suspect the MPs have got all upcoming security concerns covered. Once the MI5 tip them off that the general public are getting angry, they'll get health and safety to declare The Palace of Westminster unsafe. After all a required multi-billion pound upgrade to the building has been talked about for years. Thing is the MPs will simply withdraw behind their Skype screens, the actual building upgrade won't happen due to 'austerity cuts', and the MPs won't be seen again in public for many many years... 

Sounds fantastical but what a conveniently covert way in which to massively upset parliamentary process, plus allowing all kinds of other 'temporary'(?) emergency processes to be initiated. 

[No One]

3 hours ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

I've been reviewing my investment pot recently (mostly in ISA, but some cash, premium bonds, PMs in a vault). Note: "equities" means "shares". All figures are approximate.

The following is for equity index tracker funds I've held for a few years (can't remember now, but probably around 7 years). It's interesting to see that the UK has been a relatively poor performer, and Japan was not much better. Note: this is accumulation units, and it includes dividends re-invested and the effect of charges:

US 94%
Europe 56%
UK 35%
Japan 38%
Pacific (excluding Japan) 61%
Emerging markets 43%
Global small cap 66% (last I looked, around 50 to 60% of this fund was US small cap equities)

Here is my current asset allocation:

Total equities 71%
Equity index tracker funds 34%
Individual equities 37%
Cash (inc premium bonds & NS&I savings bonds) 21%
Gold (in a vault) 3%
Silver (in a vault) 4%

Individual equities allocation:

Oil & Gas 20%
Telecoms 6%
Tobacco 4%
Potash 3%
PM Miners 6%
Asset managers 2%

I had some utilities (SSE) but sold.
I had some transports (Go Ahead, Stagecoach) but they were sold or got taken over.

Rough estimate of my investment pots return over the past 12 months: +8%
Considering that the S&P500 seems to have returned approx -19% I feel like I've been quite lucky.

General thoughts:

I want more telecoms and asset managers shares.

Questions:

1) What percentage should I have in cash?
I'm 50. At that age my high equities & low cash allocation goes against the traditional idea of "Own your age in cash & bonds, and put the rest in equities". However, for the past few years I've believed that bonds were over valued (yield too low) and that cash is being rapidly debased/devalued by inflation, hence my low cash allocation. The main reason I might want to hold more cash is if I thought a big stockmarket crash was imminent, or if I wanted to buy a house in the next few years (I don't currently plan to but that might or might not change).

2) Should I buy more potash or is it too late now?

3) What other sectors (if any) should I consider?
I know @DurhamBorn mentioned Wetherspoons, but last I looked they haven't paid any dividends for a while, and I think of them as being like bricks & mortar retail, which is a sector I prefer to avoid at the moment. I feel quite reluctant to buy shares that don't pay a dividend (at least 2% but ideally more like 6%), with the possible exception of stocks that I think might rise a lot (e.g. PM miners).

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

1) What percentage should I have in cash?

Dunno

2) Should I buy more potash or is it too late now?

Ive considered this too, but I think its too late, this is cyclical and its best bought when unloved and sold after a run up.

3) What other sectors (if any) should I consider?
I know @DurhamBorn mentioned Wetherspoons,

 

Ive thiought of Uranium for very long term hold

 

[Lightscribe]

Bread and circuses

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/millions-of-low-income-households-to-get-new-cost-of-living-payments-from-spring-2023

Don’t worry for those still wondering, they’ll cut bennies and balance the books any day now….

[JMD]

5 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

As someone who read too many books instead of chasing girls, historically French revolution where powers that be get whacked are not that often.

Typically the rulers scapegoat a group be it jews in germany or the kulak middle classes in USSR.

Who will they try this time.

Perhaps the early retired, off to a carbon neutral gulag where guards are both sadistic and diversity trained.

Yes I mentioned recently that one of my canary warnings is for when Western governments start scapegoating. As you say it's part of the historical playbook.

Btw I think the first group to be targeted might be the un-vaccinated and anti-immigrant early-retiree with assets!?!

[Lightscribe]

5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

The reason millenials aren't becoming conservative is becasue they're the poorest generation since the second world war.

Sh1tty two bed terraace in Liecester is circa £160k min,local average £20k.They have no fincial stake in the UK like the generations before

There's fully qualified paras at work either living at home or in HMO's,can't afford to rent or buy as well as pay their student debt/utilities.

Yes I know that and you know that. Ask the average BBC news reading millennial though, and they’ll tell you that’s it’s down to Brexit and years of Tory austerity that’s kept wages down and not funded building enough supply of new build houses. i.e total tosh.

Point being that blaming net increase of 500k people increasing the population each year, landlords housing them by pushing up prices using cheap leveraged money to hoover up, cut and shut every suburb shitbox they can lay their grubby hands on to carve out as many rooms as possible for max LHA allowance, never comes up on the BBC surprisingly. 

If you do happen to mention anything like the above however, you’ll generally get the horrified, non-BBC-compliant glassy stare.

That indoctrination has been implemented slowly over decades and is the precursor for the change needed to transition away from conservatism to the ‘You will own nothing’ future using the CCP template.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/top-english-private-schools-put-chinese-communists-on-boards-vxsdtjcpk

https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/major-leak-exposes-members-and-lifts-the-lid-on-the-chinese-communist-party/video/71dbf74e7fa2da712f63b91429ec4d5d

As I’ve said previously by the next census we’ll have completely different demographic and the millennials will be the voting majority.

A left leaning younger generation and high migration will ensure leftist (and perhaps socialist) political powers are put in place for decades.

[Eventually Right]

5 hours ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

.

Questions:

1) What percentage should I have in cash?
I'm 50. At that age my high equities & low cash allocation goes against the traditional idea of "Own your age in cash & bonds, and put the rest in equities". However, for the past few years I've believed that bonds were over valued (yield too low) and that cash is being rapidly debased/devalued by inflation, hence my low cash allocation. The main reason I might want to hold more cash is if I thought a big stockmarket crash was imminent, or if I wanted to buy a house in the next few years (I don't currently plan to but that might or might not change).

2) Should I buy more potash or is it too late now?

3) What other sectors (if any) should I consider?

1) The million dollar question. If we get a Big Kahuna, as some think, you should have a shed load. If we get a sector rotation instead, you should have a lot less. 

2) It’s run a fair way, but could go further.

3) I know plenty of fintwit/mintwit people whose opinions I respect have positions in Tin miners (Alphamin and MLX.AX specifically). Also maybe uranium and coal (coal has run up a lot in the last year though)

(disclaimer-I own AFM.V and MLX.AX)

[King Penda]

2 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I would love to know how that's possible. I am a bloody gas man ,and cannot get mine anywhere near that (even with theft), more like £300 a month.

You are either , taking the piss, or have something dodgy going on.

You should know that a gas meter can be fucked up by a very strong magnet if it’s a bellows system it depends on what metal is used in the diaphragm.obviously doing this might lower your gas pressure.I’m only joking obviesly lol . Xxx

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

5 hours ago, Van Lady said:

I’ve cut back on hot water usage. Wash dishes only when sink basin is full and less bath water.

I say...are YOU married?

If not, do ya wanna be?

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

2023 The COLLAPSE...

"Husband's anger as wife dies after waiting more than 16 hours for ambulance in Hull"

[Sugarlips]

@sancho panza Previous Oz conservative govt held power for 20 of last 26 years and over that time threw literally everything at the housing bubble with great success. They were still concocting schemes a week before their defeat (cash in your super for a house deposit, thankfully that came too late to save them).

The RBA opened a term funding window when they hit zero in 2019ish and the banks lent billions in mortgages to the masses at unheard of rates like 4 years at 1.99%. Well that window shut and the norm now as those terms start to expire is 6%. Sydney is down 12.7% from peak which is about $150k. and shows no signs of abating. Melbourne has just given up all its pandemic gains.

Logic would say the mortgage defaults will start soon but spending is strong as ever and as you say at a national level only the baby boomers have ever witnessed a proper recession 30 years ago - having said that the regions including Perth have had some very tough times over the years. 

It’s quite the mixed bag. They are bringing in migrants at record levels. Unemployment benefits are poor. Cost of living is high. Work is plentiful currently. Rental pool nationally is very tight and expensive.

They’ve raised interest rates from 0.5 to .3.5% so far which is slower than RBNZ, watch this space.

Av Borrowing costs today will be crimping capacity:

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Sugarlips said:

@sancho panza Previous Oz conservative govt held power for 20 of last 26 years and over that time threw literally everything at the housing bubble with great success. They were still concocting schemes a week before their defeat (cash in your super for a house deposit, thankfully that came too late to save them).

The RBA opened a term funding window when they hit zero in 2019ish and the banks lent billions in mortgages to the masses at unheard of rates like 4 years at 1.99%. Well that window shut and the norm now as those terms start to expire is 6%. Sydney is down 12.7% from peak which is about $150k. and shows no signs of abating. Melbourne has just given up all its pandemic gains.

Logic would say the mortgage defaults will start soon but spending is strong as ever and as you say at a national level only the baby boomers have ever witnessed a proper recession 30 years ago - having said that the regions including Perth have had some very tough times over the years. 

It’s quite the mixed bag. They are bringing in migrants at record levels. Unemployment benefits are poor. Cost of living is high. Work is plentiful currently. Rental pool nationally is very tight and expensive.

They’ve raised interest rates from 0.5 to .3.5% so far which is slower than RBNZ, watch this space.

Av Borrowing costs today will be crimping capacity:

It's not a blue thing.  The Labor cunts in Victoria have rolled out share ownership to push home ownership here, and all the Labor MPs I know push property as the sole route to riches.

I know three young couples in my network who are experiencing mortgage stress already.  All bought in the past 3 years.

 

edit: my monthly mortgage repayments are zero.  Because I and my wife focused on paying off the mortgage double quick instead of new cars and holidays.

[manservantjerkins]

7 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

£36 a month is very close to the standing charge, if you use nothing.

There are pretty substantial differences in standing charges too- I (SE) compared with someone up north, and his were at least 1/3 less than mine 

[ILikeCake]

9 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I would love to know how that's possible. I am a bloody gas man ,and cannot get mine anywhere near that (even with theft), more like £300 a month.

You are either , taking the piss, or have something dodgy going on.

It's possible.  Mine is only £20 a month after the £66 bung.  Managed to get a relatively cheap fix until 2024 with EDF before the prices went crazy (decided to fix mainly thanks to info on here) I only have a small 2 bed house though.  If I was still single I think the bung would put me in credit each month.

Edit.  I also had a new boiler installed approx 18 months ago just as inflation was taking off.  Old one was inefficient and on it's last legs.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

9 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

£36 a month is very close to the standing charge, if you use nothing.

His long term fix still has a much lower standing charge. £36 + £67 = £103 and is probably around the average bill from 18 months ago. Based on direct debit averaged over the year rather than the amount used during December.

[PatronizingGit]

2 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

@sancho panza Previous Oz conservative govt held power for 20 of last 26 years and over that time threw literally everything at the housing bubble with great success. They were still concocting schemes a week before their defeat (cash in your super for a house deposit, thankfully that came too late to save them).

The RBA opened a term funding window when they hit zero in 2019ish and the banks lent billions in mortgages to the masses at unheard of rates like 4 years at 1.99%. Well that window shut and the norm now as those terms start to expire is 6%. Sydney is down 12.7% from peak which is about $150k. and shows no signs of abating. Melbourne has just given up all its pandemic gains.

Logic would say the mortgage defaults will start soon but spending is strong as ever and as you say at a national level only the baby boomers have ever witnessed a proper recession 30 years ago - having said that the regions including Perth have had some very tough times over the years. 

It’s quite the mixed bag. They are bringing in migrants at record levels. Unemployment benefits are poor. Cost of living is high. Work is plentiful currently. Rental pool nationally is very tight and expensive.

They’ve raised interest rates from 0.5 to .3.5% so far which is slower than RBNZ, watch this space.

Av Borrowing costs today will be crimping capacity:

Yup. For all the talk of 'immigration is our salvation' as far as I can tell, it doesnt matter one jot. Regardless if you are Canada or Australla, inviting (both countries should be head & shoulders above all other western countries purely by virtue of being such big raw material exporters the last 15 years) the highest numbers in, or whether you are Japan or Italy, having historically small amounts enter. The cost of living & low wage growth is a common factor in all. 

At least the Japanese dont have the racial shit to deal with. 

[jamtomorrow]

3 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

2023 The COLLAPSE...

"Husband's anger as wife dies after waiting more than 16 hours for ambulance in Hull"

This NHS unravelling is starting to look demographically interesting, especially in terms of how it affects those boomers with gold-plated pensions. What's the point in all that material wealth if diseases and conditions that were considered treatable just 5 years ago are now - effectively - disabling or fatal?

That penny has yet to drop (as far as I can tell) and it's rather a sneaky rug-pull. Unlike the working-age population, there's no way for retired wealthy boomers to ride the wave of occupational schemes that the working middle-classes are about to pile into, and they can't or won't sacrifice their material wellbeing to pay for care that was free and easily accessible until recently - it was never part of the plan, and it simply does not compute.

It also looks interesting as part of wider labour market policy when coupled with UBI: the idle get a roof over their head, food on the table, basic energy needs paid for; the productive get access to healthcare, and that becomes the defining incentive to work for the majority (much like in the US).

Question is, will fear of illness and death prove sufficient to reverse the recent downtrend in labour participation?

[DurhamBorn]

9 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I would love to know how that's possible. I am a bloody gas man ,and cannot get mine anywhere near that (even with theft), more like £300 a month.

You are either , taking the piss, or have something dodgy going on.

Fixed for 3 years,usually £105 a month so with governments £65 a month,down below £40 a month.My dads is fixed even longer with EDF,dont know what he is doing as his is £68 a month 

[DurhamBorn]

9 hours ago, PETR4 said:

I hope Emily can save us!

Economist, Macro-Financial Risks at Bank of England

https://uk.linkedin.com/in/emily-clayton-23470488

One of the Bank's few macro people. Sadly everyone at the top is Keynesian ☹️

No chance,she went to the same schools and uni as the rest of them.Thats the problem,no diversity of thought or experience.

[F150]

FTSE up 2%
USD up shitloads

whats happened

i thought number supposed to go down ffs

[DurhamBorn]

9 hours ago, Van Lady said:

I just pay what they ask. I’m in credit to almost £200.

Had gas central heating on for days in the recent cold spell and just going to put it on  now before going to bed due to minus temps this evening.

I’ve cut back on hot water usage. Wash dishes only when sink basin is full and less bath water.

Sent readings after cold spell and as expected gas usage was up.

Someone called a few weeks ago from eon. Didn’t take readings for gas or electricity. He only looked at gas meter then went on his way. Suspected of fiddling maybe?

 

My heating is on at 18.5c from 7am until 11pm most days,new combi.Iv got new windows (4 years old),cavity wall insulation,attic well done.I also put a lot of insulation around the inside of the internal garage.My electric will hit me when my fix is off though.I run 3 freezers,tropical fish tanks etc and huge televisions.Iv got carers allowance now though  so that will cover the increases.The loading of standing charges is disgusting though,government direct theft for their insane policies.If they had let Centrica make £10 more a month it would never of happened and The Scottish Play would remain a play.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

8 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Bread and circuses

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/millions-of-low-income-households-to-get-new-cost-of-living-payments-from-spring-2023

Don’t worry for those still wondering, they’ll cut bennies and balance the books any day now….

What is their plan to get people to do low wage jobs? They're better off on benefits.

The collapse is caused by people quitting work to suck the state teat. Nothing they're doing addresses that. Unless they want the collapse to usher in lower benefits that are not sufficient to live on, lower living standards and greater state control. I always try to forget that option in much the same way that a drunk forgets most of New Years Eve.