Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 4)

[spunko]

https://www.dosbods.co.uk/topic/18761-credit-deflation-and-the-reflation-cycle-to-come-part-3/page/1246/#comments

 

Carrying on from Part 3.

[M S E Refugee]

Part iv, the collapse!

[Sasquatch]

6 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Part iv, the collapse!

 

Is Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson playing the lead?

[Lightscribe]

 

45 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Part iv, the collapse!

Still the epilogue to go…

 

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, Sasquatch said:

 

Is Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson playing the lead?

I think a renowned thespian like "The Rock" could easily play the part of Joe Biden.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, M S E Refugee said:

I think a renowned thespian like "The Rock" could easily play the part of Joe Biden.

Reminds me of Idiocracy  

[marceau]

Will there be enough electricity to see us through to part 5?

[Calcutta]

5 minutes ago, marceau said:

Will there be enough electicity to see us through to part 5?

This reminds me, need to buy a little solar panel battery thing for charging my phone. Anybody got any recommendations? 

[spunko]

8 minutes ago, marceau said:

Will there be enough electicity to see us through to part 5?

Going by the number of outages from the hosting provider lately, I can't be sure. It does seem rather  strange that there have been 3 outages in the last month, and yet not any for the previous year.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

9 minutes ago, marceau said:

Will there be enough electicity to see us through to part 5?

Commuters will charge their phones from the sockets on trains. I'll charge mine from the solar lantern until the sun is too weak to assist. People who post from PCs will learn to speed type or skp th vwls lk ths jst 2 sv lccy.

Hopefully the servers are in a low cost country.

[marceau]

8 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Commuters will charge their phones from the sockets on trains. I'll charge mine from the solar lantern until the sun is too weak to assist. People who post from PCs will learn to speed type or skp th vwls lk ths jst 2 sv lccy.

Hopefully the servers are in a low cost country.

I'm actually thinking of charging a battery bank on a 3 hour route I take. Has the added bonus of screwing over the rail company, who I hate with a passion.

[feed]

https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/scholzs-spd-lawmakers-demand-an-end-to-ukraine-war-negotiations-with-russia/

Scholz’s SPD lawmakers demand an end to Ukraine war, negotiations with Russia

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is steering his pacifist SPD party through precedent-breaking arms shipments for Ukraine after Russia’s invasion, has been called on to engage in a diplomatic offensive by lawmakers.

As a consequence of the “Zeitenwende” Scholz observed, the German government boosted its military budget by an extraordinary €100 billion and shipped arms into a hot conflict for the first time ever. Parts of the SPD struggled with these measures and have now sent a letter signed by multiple MPs and MEPs to Scholz, titled “The weapons must be silent!”

“The escalation spiral must be stopped,” the letter reads, which calls for a “modus vivendi.”

Such a modus often refers to an agreement that allows conflicting parties to coexist in peace. On 22 August, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) found that Russia’s attack on Ukraine had seen 5,587 civilians killed and injured 7,890. 

“With every delivery of weapons, it is important to carefully weigh up and consider where the ‘red line’ lies, which could be perceived as entering the war and provoke corresponding reactions,” the lawmakers add, specifically mentioning a no-fly zone over Ukraine, and delivering fighter jets and tanks.

“Dear God, can this party still be saved? How can one be so heartless and oblivious to history?” commented Andrij Melnyk, Ukraine’s ambassador to Berlin.

German observers reacted similarly. “It’s already starting with the capitulations. If it weren’t for the fact that some MPs and MEPs were also involved, one could ignore the nonsense,” tweeted Carlo Masala, security expert. 

On Thursday (25 August), Scholz visited a training operation in Germany, where Ukrainian soldiers are trained to use Gepard anti-aircraft tanks, which will be sent to Ukraine.

The pacifist wing of the SPD, led by parliament whip Rolf Mützenich, has long been a thorn in the side of Scholz, who is not tired of repeating “Ukraine must not lose” and has ruled out peace by diktat.

Members of European Parliament in the mix

Amongst the signatories are two EU parliamentarians of the EU-SPD, Dietmar Köster, Joachim Schuster and Constanze Krehl. Krehl is on the committee for regional development and part of the parliament’s delegation to Belarus.

Schuster is vice-chair of the EU parliament’s delegation to South Africa and a member of the ECON committee, with his latest report being one on EU-Africa trade relations as a shadow rapporteur. 

Köster sits in the foreign affairs committee and delegations to Iran and the US. He is usually tasked with co-writing the parliament’s statements on the European Commission’s Bosnia-Herzegovina reports.

[Starsend]

@DurhamBornyou mention right at the end of the Part 3 that your roadmap is pointing to 100% systemic collapse. Can you elaborate on what you mean by systemic collapse?

To my mind it means primarily a collapse in sterling?

[Harley]

Why shouldn't bennies be taxed?  Forget the name as they are now more (depth and breadth) than they were originally and exceed that received by many paid workers.  They are, in essence, just a form of unearned income (in this case funded by taxpayers).  Why should the source/form of income affect the tax treatment, especially as in this case they are in the same group as earned income (i.e. not say investment income, and if not surely tax them at an even higher rate!).  Two identical families, but one pays tax and the other doesn't just because.....?        

[Harley]

1 hour ago, spunko said:

https://www.dosbods.co.uk/topic/18761-credit-deflation-and-the-reflation-cycle-to-come-part-3/page/1246/#comments

 

Carrying on from Part 3.

And what a Carry On......

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

 

Still the epilogue to go…

 

Then you need to know.....Appropriate positioning of the trigger finger but the use of a sling is a no-no!

[Lightscribe]

40 minutes ago, marceau said:

I'm actually thinking of charging a battery bank on a 3 hour route I take. Has the added bonus of screwing over the rail company, who I hate with a passion.

Power banks. Get some chunky 20000mah ones. I’ve got a few spare. If China imports collapse then they’ll be like gold dust.

Apart from that I have one of these at home for a backup

https://www.amazon.co.uk/ALLPOWERS-Portable-Generator-185200mAh-Emergency/dp/B08FDN1PH6/ref=asc_df_B08FDN1PH6/

[marceau]

Just now, Lightscribe said:

Power banks. Get some chunky 20000mah ones. I’ve got a few spare. If China imports collapse then they’ll be like gold dust.

Apart from that I have one of these at home for a backup

https://www.amazon.co.uk/ALLPOWERS-Portable-Generator-185200mAh-Emergency/dp/B08FDN1PH6/ref=asc_df_B08FDN1PH6/

Interesting. There's a lot of fake shit on Amazon though, and with something like this I'd want to be 100% it's the real deal.

[Axeman123]

With the spread between German and Italian Bond yields becoming wider, and EU fragmentation a real risk, it is good to see the Italian parties being responsible in their electioneering...by which I mean promising endless spending

"The pledges include sweeping tax cuts, higher state salaries and pensions, earlier retirement, a social housing drive, subsidies on electricity bills, and even a "dowry" of up to 10,000 euros ($9,950) for teenagers when they turn 18"

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-italys-giveaway-election-pledges-103645896.html

 

[reformed nice guy]

I have had a look at the governments NEST pension performance.

https://nestpensions.org.uk/schemeweb/nest/nestcorporation/investment-approach/fund-factsheets.html

Latest quarterly report is end of June 2022. Their benchmark is CPI + 3%. Annualised numbers.

Nest 2040 Retirement Fund (default strategy)

1 year: -5%, benchmark +12.7%

3 year: +5.2%, bm +7.2%

Nest Ethical Fund (growth phase)

1 yr: -7.3%, bm +12.7%

3 yr: +5.3%, bm + 7.2%

Nest Higher Risk Fund (no benchmark, mainly "Climate aware global developed equities")

1yr -5.7%

3yr +5.%

Nest sharia (no benchmark)

1yr -0.9%

3yr +13.9%

Nest Lower Growth Fund (all bonds)

1yr -3.3%

3yr -0.1% (this must be biggest loser)

Nest Guided Retirement Fund (basically 60% bonds, 40% equity/reits)

1yr -6.2%

since launch Mar 2020 +6.1% (since the biggest dip in years.... only this much!!)

 

Annual Management charge: 0.3%

Contribution charge: 1.8%

 

So £10,000 put in one year ago to their ethical fund would have £180 taken off for contribution charge, another £30 taken for annual charge, be valued at £9,100 due to fund loses but have the RPI spending power of £7,980. A £2,020 loss.

[Axeman123]

@reformed nice guy Sharia it is then.

It sort of stands to reason that as a niche it would be more profitable.

[spunko]

Leather-faced criminal alchy claims Climate Change is causing the cost of living crisis. More at 10.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11146627/ECB-president-Christine-Lagarde-warns-climate-change.html

[Yadda yadda yadda]

28 minutes ago, Starsend said:

@DurhamBornyou mention right at the end of the Part 3 that your roadmap is pointing to 100% systemic collapse. Can you elaborate on what you mean by systemic collapse?

To my mind it means primarily a collapse in sterling?

Good point. It would be interesting to see that fleshed out. Probably scary too too.

To my mind it is sterling collapse that will lead to other consequences. Eg very high inflation and the Government will be unable to match it with benefits, wages and pensions. Private sector would be hammered too.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 minutes ago, spunko said:

Leather-faced criminal alchy claims Climate Change is causing the cost of living crisis. More at 10.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11146627/ECB-president-Christine-Lagarde-warns-climate-change.html

Nearly correct, the response to so-called Climate change combined with the response to "covid" and the provocation of Russia have caused the cost of living crisis. Many of the proposed solutions are sticking plasters which will fall off to reveal that the injury has turned septic.

[Calcutta]

36 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

I have had a look at the governments NEST pension performance.

https://nestpensions.org.uk/schemeweb/nest/nestcorporation/investment-approach/fund-factsheets.html

Latest quarterly report is end of June 2022. Their benchmark is CPI + 3%. Annualised numbers.

Nest 2040 Retirement Fund (default strategy)

1 year: -5%, benchmark +12.7%

3 year: +5.2%, bm +7.2%

Nest Ethical Fund (growth phase)

1 yr: -7.3%, bm +12.7%

3 yr: +5.3%, bm + 7.2%

Nest Higher Risk Fund (no benchmark, mainly "Climate aware global developed equities")

1yr -5.7%

3yr +5.%

Nest sharia (no benchmark)

1yr -0.9%

3yr +13.9%

Nest Lower Growth Fund (all bonds)

1yr -3.3%

3yr -0.1% (this must be biggest loser)

Nest Guided Retirement Fund (basically 60% bonds, 40% equity/reits)

1yr -6.2%

since launch Mar 2020 +6.1% (since the biggest dip in years.... only this much!!)

 

Annual Management charge: 0.3%

Contribution charge: 1.8%

 

So £10,000 put in one year ago to their ethical fund would have £180 taken off for contribution charge, another £30 taken for annual charge, be valued at £9,100 due to fund loses but have the RPI spending power of £7,980. A £2,020 loss.

Transfered my 2500 out of beat as soon as I could. Invested it in United Airlines @35 when sterling was 1.40. Sterling crashed, UAL went to 50. Doubled my money over night. Now its sat in the SIPP waiting for the FTSE to go sub 5500.