Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 4)

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Nice juicy divi just hit my account from Henderson Far East.

I'm going to be looking for a replacement for this fund over the next couple of months; it contains too much China / Taiwan at about 33%.

The world is changing fast, China is likely to have a pop at Taiwan at some point in the next year or two. Shares could go the same way as Russian ones did. Too much risk, if it was 5% then I could stomach that.

China recently changed some of their laws - to enable them to steal foreign assets.

World is getting smaller fast in investing terms.

The threat of hitting Taiwan might suit China more though than actually doing it.Russia is a tiny part of the world economy,but they are able to leverage energy due to dopey western polos (or is it the yanks destroying Germany),China though is huge.If you sanctioned them you would have zero new cars,zero new phones,zero new buses,zero new trains etc etc.Slow drift apart,we onshore,they build up a service industry looks more likely.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

I thought we were already on Better Call Saul.

I reckons DBs name is Saul Shitman 

 

[Pip321]

12 minutes ago, marceau said:

Was just scrolling through the BBC's live feed on the energy situation and it's hard not to get a sense of panic developing in there. The Q&A bits come across as a bit desperate, particularly the Russia one to the effect of 'why aren't the Russians taking the pain that we are?'. Perhaps the Beeboids getting cold feet on the prog programme?

Have noticed Blair has been cropping up with increasing frequency over the last month as well. The last time I remember that happening was when all of the Islamic street terror was getting too intense. As was the case back then it looks like his various handlers are getting uncomfortable with the situation and are trying to roll the madness back. Good luck with that. 

On the energy situation I like to get local info when I can. So at the pub last night, whilst steering carefully away from politics, I did ask the guys just how these small businesses are going to cope. 

One of them mentioned his best mate who owns a mini supermarket (independent, small unit ie 5/6 big fridges and another 4 aisles of corner shop type stock) currently pays £8K a year electricity. The owner rang for a electricity fixed price a couple of month ago and was told it was £28k...so he left it. Rang a few weeks later...more. A few weeks later...more again. So he has just fixed a tariff at £40k a year. Now I appreciate we need to adjust for exaggeration from the origin and then the teller of the story but many small businesses are knackered. Interestingly this guy runs quite a profitable business so can carry this....but he is still considering selling up on a cost v effort basis. 

Another chaps wife works in a little poxy wool shop. I assumed the same would apply.....(never assume). This shop has been going strong for 45 years and has never had any heating in and staff wear fingerless gloves in winter. They have put LED bulbs into the 3 pendant fittings and whilst my friend doesn't know the costs I think it seems set up to last another few years. 

Just got me thinking though the number of crappy and usually empty nail and hair salons and beauty treatment 'palaces', coffee shops (although they are busy) and pop up random shops etc in town is now huge. Incredibly hard time for the retail sector......tough for everyone.

What will be interesting is the ones left standing might do well in the longer term i.e. less competition?  My M&S soft spot (remember, a tad tongue in cheek) might come through.....but I wont be backing ANY retail stocks during this cycle because they are all going to be issuing profit warnings and asking for help. 

[dnb24]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

or is it the yanks destroying Germany

Or wef/ECB and CBDCs vs fed and commercial banking?

[Lightscribe]

12 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I'm probably being optimistic but I think the climate change nonsense and the engineered energy crisis is going to be a much harder sell to the NPC's than Covid was.

99% if not a 100% of humans are selfish and they have been used to free shit for decades, the tantrums will be epic!

But at the same time, they’ve been conditioned and are probably the weakest physically and mentally in centuries. Forever HPI, 40 years of disinflation, cheap labour, cheap goods, cheap credit, early retirement, there is not a time in history where everyone has had it so good. They don’t want to lose all that and will be desperate to keep it.

Remember in the 70/80s when the left wingers were anti-government, anti-big Pharma and anti-media? The government have played a blinder to make going against the ‘narrative’ as right wing now.
You’ll often find the more liberal a person is, the furthest towards the safe hand of the government they are, as they have the most to fear away from it.

It’s crucial how the governments play it from here as it could go two ways if we do indeed face collapse. (They’ll give the game away soon)

Either we descend into chaos, mortgages/bills default, business close, jobs lost, looting and rioting and essential services break apart - the broken window effect.

https://www.britannica.com/topic/broken-windows-theory

People are then desperate for security, so will accept ‘the solution’ from the government to restore order.

Or they don’t let it get to that stage. They introduce ‘the solution’ before to prevent it happening. This option however will have the most resistance and push back.

[M S E Refugee]

6 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

But at the same time, they’ve been conditioned and are probably the weakest physically and mentally in centuries. Forever HPI, 40 years of disinflation, cheap labour, cheap goods, cheap credit, early retirement, there is not a time in history where everyone has had it so good. They don’t want to lose all that and will be desperate to keep it.

Remember in the 70/80s when the left wingers were anti-government, anti-big Pharma and anti-media? The government have played a blinder to make going against the ‘narrative’ as right wing now.
You’ll often find the more liberal a person is, the furthest towards the safe hand of the government they are, as they have the most to fear away from it.

It’s crucial how the governments play it from here as it could go two ways if we do indeed face collapse. (They’ll give the game away soon)

Either we descend into chaos, mortgages/bills default, business close, jobs lost, looting and rioting and essential services break apart - the broken window effect.

https://www.britannica.com/topic/broken-windows-theory

People are then desperate for security, so will accept ‘the solution’ from the government to restore order.

Or they don’t let it get to that stage. They introduce ‘the solution’ before to prevent it happening. This option however will have the most resistance and push back.

I'm not sure the Government can guarantee anyone's security if the Pound collapses and we now have a significant amount of 3rd Worlder's who are only managble with extreme violence.

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11148651/Ofgem-energy-price-cap-Britons-tell-struggle-amid-rising-cost-living.html

Look at the amount of bennies on there.Obvious the first lot are just scroungers,moaning at getting £2k a month free money.Scottish woman with disabled child obvious genuine,then more scroungers,fat bloke with huge PC claims bi polar the made up illness of choice.Then lots of un-viable self employed.They are all consuming without producing.All part of the problem.Incredible the policy errors.We really are on the edge of a death spiral.

[Lightscribe]

5 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I'm not sure the Government can guarantee anyone's security if the Pound collapses and we now have a significant amount of 3rd Worlder's who are only managble with extreme violence.

That’s where Digital IDs come in. CBDCs. Drones. UBI.1984. (May help if you depopulate a few ‘useless eaters’ first however)

[Yadda yadda yadda]

24 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

On the energy situation I like to get local info when I can. So at the pub last night, whilst steering carefully away from politics, I did ask the guys just how these small businesses are going to cope. 

One of them mentioned his best mate who owns a mini supermarket (independent, small unit ie 5/6 big fridges and another 4 aisles of corner shop type stock) currently pays £8K a year electricity. The owner rang for a electricity fixed price a couple of month ago and was told it was £28k...so he left it. Rang a few weeks later...more. A few weeks later...more again. So he has just fixed a tariff at £40k a year. Now I appreciate we need to adjust for exaggeration from the origin and then the teller of the story but many small businesses are knackered. Interestingly this guy runs quite a profitable business so can carry this....but he is still considering selling up on a cost v effort basis. 

Another chaps wife works in a little poxy wool shop. I assumed the same would apply.....(never assume). This shop has been going strong for 45 years and has never had any heating in and staff wear fingerless gloves in winter. They have put LED bulbs into the 3 pendant fittings and whilst my friend doesn't know the costs I think it seems set up to last another few years. 

Just got me thinking though the number of crappy and usually empty nail and hair salons and beauty treatment 'palaces', coffee shops (although they are busy) and pop up random shops etc in town is now huge. Incredibly hard time for the retail sector......tough for everyone.

What will be interesting is the ones left standing might do well in the longer term i.e. less competition?  My M&S soft spot (remember, a tad tongue in cheek) might come through.....but I wont be backing ANY retail stocks during this cycle because they are all going to be issuing profit warnings and asking for help. 

It hadn't occured to me previously that the cost of washing money through high street fronts will soar. 

[DoINeedOne]

24 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Another chaps wife works in a little poxy wool shop. I assumed the same would apply.....(never assume). This shop has been going strong for 45 years and has never had any heating in and staff wear fingerless gloves in winter. They have put LED bulbs into the 3 pendant fittings and whilst my friend doesn't know the costs I think it seems set up to last another few years. 

And they can knit themselves some jumpers and hats to stay warm 

[Bus Stop Boxer]

4 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I'm not sure the Government can guarantee anyone's security if the Pound collapses and we now have a significant amount of 3rd Worlder's who are only managble with extreme violence.

I've spent the morning informing my entire neighbourhood via my kitchen window that i "want to do Boris Johnsons face with a house brick til there's no face left".

His suck it up announcement from Cockeraces lectern in Ukieland, has triggered me bigly.

[M S E Refugee]

7 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

That’s where Digital IDs come in. CBDCs. Drones. UBI.1984. (May help if you depopulate a few ‘useless eaters’ first however)

I think they are running out of time to depopulate, they would need to get rid of 50 million people by Christmas.

[Chewing Grass]

56 minutes ago, Starsend said:

World is getting smaller fast in investing terms.

What is left will be overpriced.

[Starsend]

44 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The threat of hitting Taiwan might suit China more though than actually doing it.Russia is a tiny part of the world economy,but they are able to leverage energy due to dopey western polos (or is it the yanks destroying Germany),China though is huge.If you sanctioned them you would have zero new cars,zero new phones,zero new buses,zero new trains etc etc.Slow drift apart,we onshore,they build up a service industry looks more likely.

Makes perfect sense from our point of view; from Xi Jinping's I'm not so sure, they don't think like us.

You're probably right but for me it's a risk - and one that's not easy to measure. I'm not in a massive hurry but if I can find alternative products with a much smaller exposure to China and Taiwan and still paying that extra juicy divi...

 

[Noallegiance]

25 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11148651/Ofgem-energy-price-cap-Britons-tell-struggle-amid-rising-cost-living.html

Look at the amount of bennies on there.Obvious the first lot are just scroungers,moaning at getting £2k a month free money.Scottish woman with disabled child obvious genuine,then more scroungers,fat bloke with huge PC claims bi polar the made up illness of choice.Then lots of un-viable self employed.They are all consuming without producing.All part of the problem.Incredible the policy errors.We really are on the edge of a death spiral.

Loving the top supported comment:

[Jay]

11 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

But at the same time, they’ve been conditioned and are probably the weakest physically and mentally in centuries. Forever HPI, 40 years of disinflation, cheap labour, cheap goods, cheap credit, early retirement, there is not a time in history where everyone has had it so good. They don’t want to lose all that and will be desperate to keep it.

Remember in the 70/80s when the left wingers were anti-government, anti-big Pharma and anti-media? The government have played a blinder to make going against the ‘narrative’ as right wing now.
You’ll often find the more liberal a person is, the furthest towards the safe hand of the government they are, as they have the most to fear away from it.

It’s crucial how the governments play it from here as it could go two ways if we do indeed face collapse. (They’ll give the game away soon)

Either we descend into chaos, mortgages/bills default, business close, jobs lost, looting and rioting and essential services break apart - the broken window effect.

https://www.britannica.com/topic/broken-windows-theory

People are then desperate for security, so will accept ‘the solution’ from the government to restore order.

Or they don’t let it get to that stage. They introduce ‘the solution’ before to prevent it happening. This option however will have the most resistance and push back.

A lot of information and informative posts..so the solution is complete centralized planning..I don’t buy that will happen..so war it is then..physically not economically…cattle jested about Ireland…it really is a little powerhouse now..now the speculation and unknown…legalism euthanasia..bring in national service and workhouses for Bennie brigade..link it to benefits..tax cuts etc..

relocate groups to Northern Ireland…get a United ireland created..

population needs to controlled..death creates demand destruction..not sure weather  the color of my shirt is black or brown…annex resources..

yes it is really horrible post but the solutions available are now horrid..

cut spending and benefits but the current government doesn’t seem to want to..

As the economy tanks..death, destruction, and hardship are a given…so again the road to war…

on the positive side I think we still will have sterling as a currency…we will still be Allies and beneficiaries of America due to our special relationship…

apologies for such a gloomy prediction…I am no Marc Faber..I think a lot of us sense this …it will not be nice and I hope I am wrong…

but I think this is Malthusian..reading pip post just triggered that we are in a spiral..my death spiral is different to db but probably ends in the same way…

all solutions are going to be unpleasant for a minority..which is the domestic minority that suffers is debatable..

I think it’s all very 1930s again…apologies if you find the post offensive but give it time and I am sure I will post another one..I do hope that I am wrong but bitter economic medicine doesn’t seem to be on the horizon anytime soon.

what a barrel of laughs me..be lucky

 

[feed]

45 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

Or wef/ECB and CBDCs vs fed and commercial banking?

it's an interesting question.

The sanctions were initiated by the white house without input from the FED or wall street.  Is this a mechanism to get the EU to break those sanctions. 

Is it who blinks first. The Germans going into winter or the US and a high DXY, crippling it's allies.   

[Van Lady]

34 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11148651/Ofgem-energy-price-cap-Britons-tell-struggle-amid-rising-cost-living.html

Look at the amount of bennies on there.Obvious the first lot are just scroungers,moaning at getting £2k a month free money.Scottish woman with disabled child obvious genuine,then more scroungers,fat bloke with huge PC claims bi polar the made up illness of choice.Then lots of un-viable self employed.They are all consuming without producing.All part of the problem.Incredible the policy errors.We really are on the edge of a death spiral.

Look at the top rated comments on the article…..

The comments below have been moderated in advance.

 

Justsaying666, Everwhere, United Kingdom, 1 hour ago

They get more in benefits than many do in wages and want more handouts, they also would have received the cost of living payments etc. No wonder people are getting angry

ReplyNew Comment

 

 

41

 

648

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Shopaholic12, Newcastle Upon Tyne, United Kingdom, 1 hour ago

Amazed by the levels of benefits families can get, 2k per month and no one works, everyone caring for each other

ReplyNew Comment

 

 

14

 

509

Rated

 

 

SunShining02, London, United Kingdom, 1 hour ago

With all due respect, I assume the learning disabled child goes to a special needs school so the mother surely doesn't care for her 24/7 so why doesn't she get a part time job?

ReplyNew Comment

 

 

41

 

475

Click to rate

 

 

Extrabeansforme, dundee, United Kingdom, 1 hour ago

Goodness makes me wonder why im working full time , the first family on this story gets 1988 benefits a month and extra for her partner who cant work due to depression and anxiety, im working full time and after tax and contributions ive got 1300. It doesn't pay to work when unemployed are better off, i could cry but i will carry on, sitting in the dark 

ReplyNew Comment

 

 

9

 

451

Rated

 

 

Thoth, Harpenden , United Kingdom, 2 hours ago

So they get 24,000 a year for doing nothing. That's why the rest of us taxpayers can't afford the government giving away yet more of our money.

 

 

[M S E Refugee]

13 minutes ago, Van Lady said:

Look at the top rated comments on the article…..

The comments below have been moderated in advance.

 

Justsaying666, Everwhere, United Kingdom, 1 hour ago

They get more in benefits than many do in wages and want more handouts, they also would have received the cost of living payments etc. No wonder people are getting angry

ReplyNew Comment

 

 

41

 

648

Rated

 

 

Shopaholic12, Newcastle Upon Tyne, United Kingdom, 1 hour ago

Amazed by the levels of benefits families can get, 2k per month and no one works, everyone caring for each other

ReplyNew Comment

 

 

14

 

509

Rated

 

 

SunShining02, London, United Kingdom, 1 hour ago

With all due respect, I assume the learning disabled child goes to a special needs school so the mother surely doesn't care for her 24/7 so why doesn't she get a part time job?

ReplyNew Comment

 

 

41

 

475

Click to rate

 

 

Extrabeansforme, dundee, United Kingdom, 1 hour ago

Goodness makes me wonder why im working full time , the first family on this story gets 1988 benefits a month and extra for her partner who cant work due to depression and anxiety, im working full time and after tax and contributions ive got 1300. It doesn't pay to work when unemployed are better off, i could cry but i will carry on, sitting in the dark 

ReplyNew Comment

 

 

9

 

451

Rated

 

 

Thoth, Harpenden , United Kingdom, 2 hours ago

So they get 24,000 a year for doing nothing. That's why the rest of us taxpayers can't afford the government giving away yet more of our money.

 

 

I have noticed that one of our 16 hour a Week benefit scroungers has put her name up for overtime,I think her kids are no longer in full-time education so she must be skint.

I'm wondering if benefit recipients are going to treated with same revulsion as the unvaccinated were last Winter, working people are getting pretty pissed off with these chancers.

[Lightly Toasted]

22 minutes ago, Van Lady said:

Look at the top rated comments on the article…..

The comments below have been moderated in advance.

 

Justsaying666, Everwhere, United Kingdom, 1 hour ago

They get more in benefits than many do in wages and want more handouts, they also would have received the cost of living payments etc. No wonder people are getting angry

ReplyNew Comment

 

 

41

 

648

Rated

 

 

Shopaholic12, Newcastle Upon Tyne, United Kingdom, 1 hour ago

Amazed by the levels of benefits families can get, 2k per month and no one works, everyone caring for each other

ReplyNew Comment

 

 

14

 

509

Rated

 

 

SunShining02, London, United Kingdom, 1 hour ago

With all due respect, I assume the learning disabled child goes to a special needs school so the mother surely doesn't care for her 24/7 so why doesn't she get a part time job?

ReplyNew Comment

 

 

41

 

475

Click to rate

 

 

Extrabeansforme, dundee, United Kingdom, 1 hour ago

Goodness makes me wonder why im working full time , the first family on this story gets 1988 benefits a month and extra for her partner who cant work due to depression and anxiety, im working full time and after tax and contributions ive got 1300. It doesn't pay to work when unemployed are better off, i could cry but i will carry on, sitting in the dark 

ReplyNew Comment

 

 

9

 

451

Rated

 

 

Thoth, Harpenden , United Kingdom, 2 hours ago

So they get 24,000 a year for doing nothing. That's why the rest of us taxpayers can't afford the government giving away yet more of our money.

 

 

In fairness they're not all on welfare, one has his own business:

https://essentialise.co.uk/

We are a trusted, award winning wellbeing and inclusion agency, and as one of the UK’s leading workplace wellbeing specialists, we have bespoke solutions that can give you the competitive advantage, attract talent and support your teams to excel. From wellbeing workshops, mental health training to wellbeing strategy, we create and design tailored solutions that will fit your needs and bring effective, evidence-based wellbeing to empower your team.

essentialize
in British English
or essentialise (ɪˈsɛnʃəˌlaɪz IPA Pronunciation Guide )
VERB (transitive)
to render essential

Can't fault his insight into what's needed for a business to survive in hard times 

[Ash4781b]

56 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11148651/Ofgem-energy-price-cap-Britons-tell-struggle-amid-rising-cost-living.html

Look at the amount of bennies on there.Obvious the first lot are just scroungers,moaning at getting £2k a month free money.Scottish woman with disabled child obvious genuine,then more scroungers,fat bloke with huge PC claims bi polar the made up illness of choice.Then lots of un-viable self employed.They are all consuming without producing.All part of the problem.Incredible the policy errors.We really are on the edge of a death spiral.

Forecasts for £7k energy cap (edited) in April. I must have lost track. Is that right ?  
 

edit

[M S E Refugee]

2 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

Forecasts for £7k energy bills in April. I must have lost track. Is that right ?  

From what I can gather from that story if they have to choose between heating or food most of them look as if they can skip a few meals quite easily.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

From what I can gather from that story if they have to choose between heating or food most of them look as if they can skip a few meals quite easily.

Handouts based on BMI. It is the future.

[Ash4781b]

Any situation where the euro , dollar, and pound all go to parity? 

[M S E Refugee]

I must admit I'm sensing a disturbance in the force.

People are going to lose their shit both figuratively and literally.