Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 4)

[Noallegiance]

[Axeman123]

Some interesting reading, with lots of charts: 

https://www.crescat.net/a-vicious-stagflationary-environment/

Mostly just confirming thread themes.

A few standouts:

" Mining stocks, for instance, are currently trading at multiples not seen since their historically most depressed levels. This is a function of falling stock prices coupled with strong fundamentals. The P/E ratio for metals and mining stocks in the S&P 500 are now retesting the lows of the 2008 bottom"

"Gold miners also have the highest dividend yield in almost ten years. While this seems compelling, it is just a supplementary part of our bullish thesis on gold and silver mining stocks. These companies are almost paying more dividends than utility stocks for the first time in the history of the data."

[Red Debt Redemption]

On 26/08/2022 at 12:32, marceau said:

Interesting. There's a lot of fake shit on Amazon though, and with something like this I'd want to be 100% it's the real deal.

Anker do some nice 99wh ones biggest you can get on planes without permission or something. Lasts decent amount of time.

[Democorruptcy]

I haven't had a utility bill since 2019 but while laid on the beach today I remembered a spreadsheet I did back then to check my bills were correct. Just compared my usage and prices paid for 2018, compared to prices today and the bill now would be over 4 times as much. The UK is fucked, that is all.

[Shamone]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

all to play for still

That’s Us fucked, then.

[Red Debt Redemption]

On 26/08/2022 at 15:03, DurhamBorn said:

No timescale,its all about direction,the present direction is sterling going down 99,.999% etc,a week,15 years i dont know.Currency depends a lot on others,the case of you dont need to run faster than the lion,just faster than one other person running away.I think its sensible to be well hedged though,not all,but very much leaning outside of sterling.Houses are toast,i dont even bother with those.Even today i went to my seamstress to pick up a couple of shirts she shortened for me and i noticed loads of terraces houses up for sale,obvious BTL selling up,most iv seen since the 90s,couple in most streets.

Talking of shirts.I buy new or hardly worn Reiss shirts on Ebay usually around £15,they £90 new and she shortens etc them for me for £15 each.End up with £90 quality shirts that fit lovely for £30.She said she is getting busy,people with quality items repairing rather than buying new.Another little indicator.

Noticed the same 4-6 houses coming up for sale on some street rows.

[Harley]

20 hours ago, Virgil Caine said:

Just confirms much of what has been discussed on here. At the moment the media and politicians are framing it as a price problem when the reality is that the market signals are actually screaming that it is a supply problem. The only solution is to cut usage which means physical restrictions on use and power cuts. Unfortunately no one wants to be first mover in making that happen.  The U.K. is doubly fucked because of its over reliance on gas for electricity generation.

Smart meters make bit more sense now?  Those who listened to the soft sell with incredulity will feel a little better.  30 minute billing, a myriad of restrictions, etc?   That and because they didn't want to invest in building out the grid which clearly needs to be done.  So demand management and mandating surge arrestors in all new consumer units to cope with the failing supply.  A typical British TPTB response.  Keep it cheap to fritter money away elsewhere and dump on the public instead.

[Harley]

9 hours ago, Errol said:

Almost zero generation from wind today - http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

Walked past a large wind farm today.  None moving.  I just thought how much fossil fuels it took to build them.  Ozymandias, there they stood, the king of kings.

[Lightscribe]

40 minutes ago, Harley said:

Smart meters make bit more sense now?  Those who listened to the soft sell with incredulity will feel a little better.  30 minute billing, a myriad of restrictions, etc?   That and because they didn't want to invest in building out the grid which clearly need to be done.  So demand management and mandating surge arrestors in all new cinsumer units to cope with the failing supply.  A typical British TPTB response.  Keep it cheap to fritter money away elsewhere and dump on the public instead.

Exactly that, the smart meter push was for this inevitable point.

Lucky all my family are still on the old meters. I made sure they all politely declined.

[Harley]

11 hours ago, belfastchild said:

Ordered wood this week, paid almost double what I paid last year (bought half the amount for roughly the same money). Said the same thing, prices going up because they are running out of firewood, everyone stocking up. Footfall in the yard with people with trailers/filling the boot is per hour what it used to be per day.
Said they cant compete on price with the new starters as the new guys dont have the overheads, of course the new guys sellnig a ton of firewood on fb marketplace for just under the established peoples prices dont say if its hardwood/softwood seasoned/fresh etc.

Apologies, just catching up with the posts but someone mentioned the UK energy price problem being a supply, not a demand problem and for me that hits the nail on the head. Ive been chicken little about the UK energy supply for a couple of winters now and its been french nuclear and mild weather that has saved the grid from brownouts/blackouts.
In the energy threads I see posts about bennies people not paying and just using or using more, people not paying for electric etc etc. Thats not really an issue when its turned off. I remember my mate telling me that during the 70s there were certain areas where the electricity didnt go off here, not even the rolling blackouts. It was where the guys who decided on which sections of the grid get cut etc had family living (his dad was one of the network planners so they, his granny and the inlaws all stayed on). That was easier to do back then and with the different uk suppliers you cant really tell which areas arent paying etc but something to keep an eye on.

Back then, the grid going off would be like the internet going off today in terms of magnitude but people were significantly more stoic back then (well, so it seemed to a kid) and we muddled through with candles and the loss of four TV channels, which shut down at midnight anyway!

[BadAlchemy]

 

some people in London tonight politely complaining that their energy bills are going up. They want to "Freeze Profits". Same first level thinking that brought us clapping for the NHS, rainbows and Ukraine flags. How can so many people know something is seriously wrong yet still not able to see past the end of their noses. I despair. Somebody throw these muppets some more free money. That'll fix it.

[Van Lady]

11 minutes ago, Harley said:

Back then, the grid going off would be like the internet going off today in terms of magnitude but people were significantly more stoic back then (well, so it seemed to a kid) and we muddled through with candles and the loss of four TV channels, which shut down at midnight anyway!

Doubt many could cope with Internet going off in younger generations. Some older folk too perhaps.

I really enjoyed the rolling power cuts in the 70’s. It wasn’t a hardship because we had a coal fire, camping stove and tv wasn’t a priority. Often had family/friends visiting and the focus was on chatting and playing cards/board games.

No problem going to a shop either to buy a pint of milk or some crisps/nuts whatever for a treat because shops had manual tills and could still function.

In my opinion prolonged Internet outage will devastate many of the population because they can’t entertain themselves.

[Lightscribe]

20 minutes ago, BadAlchemy said:

 

some people in London tonight politely complaining that their energy bills are going up. They want to "Freeze Profits". Same first level thinking that brought us clapping for the NHS, rainbows and Ukraine flags. How can so many people know something is seriously wrong yet still not able to see past the end of their noses. I despair. Somebody throw these muppets some more free money. That'll fix it.

Because they don’t want to know and are not interested to know. Their exposure is what is ever fed to them on the 6 o’clock news or BBC news website (some choose not to do that and just ignore everything completely).

I know several, work with several and even have them in my partners family.

We are basically on the Titanic. We’re in the boiler room and are battening down the hatches and escaping to the upper decks.

The gentry (the politicians and civil service) are up on the top deck having a wail of time and don’t care. (Boris on holidays)

The rest of the UK is just blissfully unaware and can’t understand why their feet are getting wet.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

13 minutes ago, Van Lady said:

Doubt many could cope with Internet going off in younger generations. Some older folk too perhaps.

I really enjoyed the rolling power cuts in the 70’s. It wasn’t a hardship because we had a coal fire, camping stove and tv wasn’t a priority. Often had family/friends visiting and the focus was on chatting and playing cards/board games.

No problem going to a shop either to buy a pint of milk or some crisps/nuts whatever for a treat because shops had manual tills and could still function.

In my opinion prolonged Internet outage will devastate many of the population because they can’t entertain themselves.

First 2 and a half minutes willl cover all of this.

Edit. Cued in wrong place, just go to start run for 2.35.

 

[Noallegiance]

36 minutes ago, Van Lady said:

Doubt many could cope with Internet going off in younger generations. Some older folk too perhaps.

I really enjoyed the rolling power cuts in the 70’s. It wasn’t a hardship because we had a coal fire, camping stove and tv wasn’t a priority. Often had family/friends visiting and the focus was on chatting and playing cards/board games.

No problem going to a shop either to buy a pint of milk or some crisps/nuts whatever for a treat because shops had manual tills and could still function.

In my opinion prolonged Internet outage will devastate many of the population because they can’t entertain themselves.

I'm about as sorted as I can be right now for my family.

Kids (5, 7 & 9) know clock patience and some other card games.

Wind up & solar radio/torch/USB charger for phone.

Paid for phone with unlimited data for less than £10 per month.

Cash

Powerful torch 

Shit loads of batteries

Shit loads of candles and old school carry/holders.

52 KG of Propane.

Propane space heater

Propane double hob and grill

A month of food

 

Bring it

[No One]

On 26/08/2022 at 16:23, DurhamBorn said:

Im buying Ashmore and Ninety One at the moment,few grand of divis today from Henderson Asian Income into them between ladders.I might buy more VOD at some point,i sold down well over half my BT at the high £1.80s for a very nice profit because i wanted more outside of sterling and they have little income outside.Id be happy to add more back here,but im not.Im watching DS Smith,could ladder them and expect a smack to hit the ladders but havent set any yet.

Fund managers are hated right now,but the ones who do EMs could be diamonds hidden in full view later in the cycle.Thats my focus at the moment.Im down drafting of course,but only 7% off highs on the portfolio,very happy with that,but some big quick reds and big quick greens keep coming.

 

1 hour ago, BadAlchemy said:

 

some people in London tonight politely complaining that their energy bills are going up. They want to "Freeze Profits". Same first level thinking that brought us clapping for the NHS, rainbows and Ukraine flags. How can so many people know something is seriously wrong yet still not able to see past the end of their noses. I despair. Somebody throw these muppets some more free money. That'll fix it.

Whose gas? Putins gas! Whose gas? Putins gas !

[Van Lady]

20 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I'm about as sorted as I can be right now for my family.

Kids (5, 7 & 9) know clock patience and some other card games.

Wind up & solar radio/torch/USB charger for phone.

Paid for phone with unlimited data for less than £10 per month.

Cash

Powerful torch 

Shit loads of batteries

Shit loads of candles and old school carry/holders.

52 KG of Propane.

Propane space heater

Propane double hob and grill

A month of food

 

Bring it

Respect!

[Yadda yadda yadda]

50 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Because they don’t want to know and are not interested to know. Their exposure is what is ever fed to them on the 6 o’clock news or BBC news website (some choose not to do that and just ignore everything completely).

I know several, work with several and even have them in my partners family.

We are basically on the Titanic. We’re in the boiler room and are battening down the hatches and escaping to the upper decks.

The gentry (the politicians and civil service) are up on the top deck having a wail of time and don’t care. (Boris on holidays)

The rest of the UK is just blissfully unaware and can’t understand why their feet are getting wet.

The few people protesting are probably in a Twitter or union bubble. There will be no thinking about the why only reacting to the what. They've had the call to go down London and are protesting an empty building.

I'm sure they will have enjoyed themselves and will get a lot more coverage than protests I've been on.

Thoroughly agree with your Titanic analogy although this iceberg will be taking out many economies.

[Axeman123]

Watched this earlier, apart from a couple of sections there is nothing new in it.

The two exceptions are the "Whatever it takes" and "texas hustle" sections.

The former really clicked for me in explaining the systemic risk associated with Italian bond ("BTP") yields blowing up. Really recomend that for anyone wanting to get their head around it. 

The later really was just familiar stuff from this thread, plus quant analysis confirming an ongoing secular move higher in Nat Gas prices in the US (completely unconnected to Ukraine or seasonality) and just how far asian NG demand can riase based on their low useage per capita at present. Hardly essential viewing.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

Because they don’t want to know and are not interested to know. Their exposure is what is ever fed to them on the 6 o’clock news or BBC news website (some choose not to do that and just ignore everything completely).

I know several, work with several and even have them in my partners family.

We are basically on the Titanic. We’re in the boiler room and are battening down the hatches and escaping to the upper decks.

The gentry (the politicians and civil service) are up on the top deck having a wail of time and don’t care. (Boris on holidays)

The rest of the UK is just blissfully unaware and can’t understand why their feet are getting wet.

Everything about the night the Titanic sank should be studied and understood by anyone wanting to understand human nature and hubris when disaster strikes.You will not get a better lesson in whats happening now from any numbers or economists.Try putting the energy crisis on top of the 2 hours of the Titanic sinking.Going at full speed even though they were warned about the risk of icebergs.Thinking they could spot them in time if needed.So sure of the ship they didnt even remember the binoculars for the look outs.They hit the berg because the sea was so still,so easy and perfect that they couldnt see the waves lashing up the side.

Thomas Andrews:
The pumps will buy you time, but minutes only. From this moment on, no matter what we do, Titanic will founder.

Ismay:
But this ship can't sink!

Thomas Andrews:
She is made of iron, sir. I assure you, she can. And she will. It is a mathematical certainty.

[King Penda]

20 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Everything about the night the Titanic sank should be studied and understood by anyone wanting to understand human nature and hubris when disaster strikes.You will not get a better lesson in whats happening now from any numbers or economists.Try putting the energy crisis on top of the 2 hours of the Titanic sinking.Going at full speed even though they were warned about the risk of icebergs.Thinking they could spot them in time if needed.So sure of the ship they didnt even remember the binoculars for the look outs.They hit the berg because the sea was so still,so easy and perfect that they couldnt see the waves lashing up the side.

It’s captain was from stoke full steam ahead

[Noallegiance]

18 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Everything about the night the Titanic sank should be studied and understood by anyone wanting to understand human nature and hubris when disaster strikes.You will not get a better lesson in whats happening now from any numbers or economists.Try putting the energy crisis on top of the 2 hours of the Titanic sinking.Going at full speed even though they were warned about the risk of icebergs.Thinking they could spot them in time if needed.So sure of the ship they didnt even remember the binoculars for the look outs.They hit the berg because the sea was so still,so easy and perfect that they couldnt see the waves lashing up the side.

Me and my 9 year old boy recently built an Airfix Titanic and we talked about it and watched a documentary. 

The common questions throughout from my 9 year old? Why didn't they slow down? Why didn't they listen to the other ships warning of ice? Why didn't they have enough lifeboats?

It's why our bedroom cupboard is full of food, son. Our lifeboat.

They're gonna grow up faster than I did.

 

NB to above prep list - forgot to mention my two super-powerful pistol crossbows with 50 metal rod and tip bolts. I practice quick firing and reloads into a thick sofa cushion in my garage. I don't believe the police will definitely be there if I need them.

Life is different now. I was supposed to be a soft pussy office boy for life. Now I feel like I've got to be my own home front as well as finance bloke.

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, King Penda said:

It’s captain was from stoke full steam ahead

Yes,Hanley

[Noallegiance]

[Yadda yadda yadda]

24 minutes ago, King Penda said:

It’s captain was from stoke full steam ahead

The famous seafaring city of Stoke.