Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 4)

[One percent]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats right,and Tories wont exist as a party.Polos created this,if they think they can allow workers on £25k and no bennies to pay £7k just on energy they are in for a huge shock.Truss is right to remove the green levies,but she needs to accept she is going to have to find a way to keep the costs at £2.5k for everyone.If shes doesnt Labour will win a landslide,and i suspect Tory backbenchers would help bring her down before she starts.Talk of 5% VAT cuts is lunacy in this situation.

Il continue to but more butane bottles,family are all fixed until at least next July,my dad and daughter until a year in May,two winters covered.We will of collapsed by then if they dont get hold of this.Im very pleased its as bad as it is because it will blow away all the woke crap.Putin has already won,they need to accept that fact quickly.

But will labour do anything different?  I think not. 

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, One percent said:

But will labour do anything different?  I think not. 

Doesnt matter,people kill those who do it to them first,then worry about the next lot.

[Lightscribe]

42 minutes ago, marceau said:

BBC is reporting that Truss has ruled out any further direct support on energy prices. If that's the case she may as well not bother moving to No10, she won't be in office long enough to even unpack.

Oh…erm I’ve seemed to have dropped this here again. She’s the fall guy

[ThoughtCriminal]

Found out something about Switzerland that gives me even more confidence in the CHF:

 

They get 95% of their energy from hydro and nuclear.

[marceau]

21 minutes ago, Harley said:

FFS, HMT has no money, except ours! 

The state needs to step up. For a shock this big we can't afford some libertarian fantasy that things will adjust based on market forces.  Save that shit for once the situation has stabilised (assuming it ever does).

There is no way the prices that are being quoted can be met without state support, no way. Attempting to pass the costs of this fuckup onto the public will create a cascade of defaults - an economic black hole. There is no choice here.

[Lightly Toasted]

37 minutes ago, marceau said:

BBC is reporting that Truss has ruled out any further direct support on energy prices. If that's the case she may as well not bother moving to No10, she won't be in office long enough to even unpack.

It all depends on what indirect support is revealed, and in which direction (work vs claim) it drives incentives.

There will surely be something.

[Harley]

6 minutes ago, marceau said:

The state needs to step up. For a shock this big we can't afford some libertarian fantasy that things will adjust based on market forces.  Save that shit for once the situation has stabilised (assuming it ever does).

There is no way the prices that are being quoted can be met without state support, no way. Attempting to pass the costs of this fuckup onto the public will create a cascade of defaults - an economic black hole. There is no choice here.

Wtf....oh just forget it.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

19 minutes ago, One percent said:

But will labour do anything different?  I think not. 

If labour get in next year or the year after their hands will be tied anyway. Perhaps they could raise taxes on the rich but that will just be to fill the black hole in the finances. They won't be able to spend hundreds of billions of Great British Pesos on the benefits classes. They will drown in the shit show.

[marceau]

25 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im very pleased its as bad as it is because it will blow away all the woke crap.Putin has already won,they need to accept that fact quickly.

This is hopefully the economic equivalent of Suez.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 minute ago, Lightly Toasted said:

It all depends on what indirect support is revealed, and in which direction (work vs claim) it drives incentives.

There will surely be something.

Bung everyone a grand, whilst the bills are £3,500.  More if they increase further. That would be indirect. The problem there is that it would be a grand per household and how do you do that? Benefits claims can be by household but my tax isn't. Go £500 per adult and single people are getting fucked again. Although maybe not so much as with council tax, benefits, etc. The standing charge doesn't account for usage and single OAPs in the house they've lived in for 50 years will be the BBC story.

[Lightly Toasted]

9 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Bung everyone a grand, whilst the bills are £3,500.  More if they increase further. That would be indirect. The problem there is that it would be a grand per household and how do you do that? Benefits claims can be by household but my tax isn't. Go £500 per adult and single people are getting fucked again. Although maybe not so much as with council tax, benefits, etc. The standing charge doesn't account for usage and single OAPs in the house they've lived in for 50 years will be the BBC story.

I'd classify a fixed payment made directly to a recipient as "direct".

I'd classify more nuanced (but also much more complex to implement) measures such as differential pricing for the first n units as "indirect".

None of that addresses the problems of business/industry, of course.

As the punchline of the old "asking directions" joke goes: "If I were you, I wouldn't start from here."

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

The scale of unrest/riots will be unprecedented. Presumably they have some plan for how to deal with millions of angry people rampaging around London waving their £5,000 heating bills?

Flamethrowers?

Two birds, one stone.

[Axeman123]

A couple of stories from the Sunday Times, that could have been copied directly from this website well ahead of time:

https://archive.ph/Z3ACi

Headline:

The generational seesaw tips the young into poverty, but it’s their elders who wail

https://archive.ph/EAUfI

Headline:

Work is out of fashion because rewards are out of reach

 

[Noallegiance]

22 minutes ago, marceau said:

...we can't afford some libertarian fantasy that things will adjust based on market forces.  Save that shit for once the situation has stabilised.

I wonder how many times someone's said that over the last 20 years?

I'm guessing a few times too often that's led to there being no fix for this. I'm accepted that it may be too late.

Fan and shit are about to combine with the fan of several hundred miles radius doing 40,000 RPM, the shit the size of a small moon.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

10 hours ago, marceau said:

In other news, this guy has said in today's Times that everyone will have to start drinking recycled sewage water because of the climate emergency. Nothing to do with population growth or deranged investment priorities, apparently.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/drinking-recycled-sewage-is-the-future-bwxt5bsns

It takes a special level of clownery to create a water shortage in one of the rainiest places in the world. This entire class of people needs to be liquidated, pronouns and all.

 

They always look like that.

Weak semi spastic cucked freaks of men.

[marceau]

3 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I wonder how many times someone's said that over the last 20 years?

I'm guessing a few times too often that's led to there being no fix for this. I'm accepted that it may be too late.

Fan and shit are about to combine with the fan of several hundred miles radius doing 40,000 RPM, the shit the size of a small moon.

It's unfortunate, but only the state is big enough to handle the burden in these sorts of situations. The other stuff should've been used to avoid getting into this position in the first place. 

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Lightly Toasted said:

There are approaches other than price caps or simple bungs.

We've previously discussed the possibility of low usage being subsidised while high usage pays more (potentially providing a full cross-subsidy to low users). Low users stay warm; high users are incentivised to cut usage = demand destruction.

Since the subject of VAT has come up, we could look at a negative VAT rate on energy*, offset by consumption/import-taming VAT rises elsewhere. Bring back a luxury VAT rate, as we had in the past. Help UK business with cheaper energy, paid for by squeezing [particularly luxury] consumption much of which will be imports or part of the froth economy that needs to be corrected anyway.

* negative VAT will seem like an odd idea but why not? We already do negative interest rates and negative tax rates.

 

A low usage subsidy? Hows does that work for somebody with half a dozen AirBnB's empty in winter, do they rake it in?

What about linking it to property because supporting property prices is largely why we are where we are. Low rates, low sterling = higher energy costs.

Not a penny for anyone mortgage free

Not a penny for anyone with more than one property

A loan in exchange for some of their equity for any other homeowner

Renters, the landlord pays the utility bills if they own more than one rental

Renters other, could be linked to income/rent...

[marceau]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Wtf....oh just forget it.

Maybe I got the wrong end of the stick? 

[King of Fools]

21 hours ago, King Penda said:

It’s captain was from stoke full steam ahead

The house where he lived is just down the road from me. Woman who owns it used to do guided tours, probably take about 5 minutes.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

10 hours ago, ONC said:

Nothing new, but still amazes me, in Times today

https://archive.ph/rP0zN

man with £852,000  Interest Only mortgage starts to get worried ….

 

Tim is worried, Vicky is getting the lot anyway.

[King Penda]

My experiments with the beast are now concluded and I now know if a meter can be stoped with a powerful magnet or not .my advice is do not ever have a smart meter

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, King Penda said:

My experiments with the beast are now concluded and I now know if a meter can be stoped with a powerful magnet or not .my advice is do not ever have a smart meter

Did it work?

[King Penda]

Just now, Phil said:

Did it work?

Yes but takes about 2/3 minnutes if it’s doing a rotation every 5 seconds I put the cooker on .it slows it down then stops and will juder foward .obviously you need to move it around until you spot it slowing.then you will need to secure it with masking tape the box is plastic.I’m puting it up now and hiding it today was the only day I could get it delivered without it being spotted the x is at Manchester pride lol.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

A couple of stories from the Sunday Times, that could have been copied directly from this website well ahead of time:

https://archive.ph/Z3ACi

Headline:

The generational seesaw tips the young into poverty, but it’s their elders who wail

https://archive.ph/EAUfI

Headline:

Work is out of fashion because rewards are out of reach

 

And our readers at the Telegraph latch on to the massive problem of State worker pensions.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/28/taxpayers-face-5bn-inflation-bill-topping-gold-plated-civil/

[Spiney Norman]

19 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Yes but takes about 2/3 minnutes if it’s doing a rotation every 5 seconds I put the cooker on .it slows it down then stops and will juder foward .obviously you need to move it around until you spot it slowing.then you will need to secure it with masking tape the box is plastic.I’m puting it up now and hiding it today was the only day I could get it delivered without it being spotted the x is at Manchester pride lol.

Make sure you have a plan to get rid of it quick if the meter reading bloke come a knockin'

My old man got caught fiddling the eletric meter back in 80's. Stupid bastard cut the lead seals on the meter and never said anything to the rest of the family. When the meter reader came round his 12 year old son (me) let him to read the meter. 30 minutes later I had the house full of coppers and my old man had a day in court.

Best of luck!