Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 4)

[moneyscam]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

You know the drill.........

Winning! Germany clearly is winning the economic war it has engaged in. 

 

[DoINeedOne]

20 minutes ago, Xtal said:

And yes , surprised at how much construction is going on. Maybe a rush to get projects finished.

probably in 2008 a few friends working on new build sites were told to get the front doors on so they can be locked up and then the site closed

[Axeman123]

In Breaking Bad terms I would say the thread has reached the end of season 2. Early success and on the cusp of big things. The weak dollar phase is Gus Fring, and the season 4 BK will have us telling people "I am the danger".

Fuck season 5 though.

[DoINeedOne]

1 minute ago, moneyscam said:

Winning! Germany clearly is winning the economic war it has engaged in. 

 

its all under control they have a plan 

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

40 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Not 1 politician 

Not 1 MSM output

Not 1 "expert"

...calling for interest rate rises.

And there you have the reason for the economic collapse.

 

@DurhamBorn What are you timescales for a currency event ?

Do I have time to wait for house prices to implode ?

 

No timescale,its all about direction,the present direction is sterling going down 99,.999% etc,a week,15 years i dont know.Currency depends a lot on others,the case of you dont need to run faster than the lion,just faster than one other person running away.I think its sensible to be well hedged though,not all,but very much leaning outside of sterling.Houses are toast,i dont even bother with those.Even today i went to my seamstress to pick up a couple of shirts she shortened for me and i noticed loads of terraces houses up for sale,obvious BTL selling up,most iv seen since the 90s,couple in most streets.

Talking of shirts.I buy new or hardly worn Reiss shirts on Ebay usually around £15,they £90 new and she shortens etc them for me for £15 each.End up with £90 quality shirts that fit lovely for £30.She said she is getting busy,people with quality items repairing rather than buying new.Another little indicator.

[Axeman123]

Perhaps slightly off topic, but on the theme of politicians wanting to legislate against physics rather than take their head out of their own arse:

 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, feed said:

https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/scholzs-spd-lawmakers-demand-an-end-to-ukraine-war-negotiations-with-russia/

Scholz’s SPD lawmakers demand an end to Ukraine war, negotiations with Russia

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is steering his pacifist SPD party through precedent-breaking arms shipments for Ukraine after Russia’s invasion, has been called on to engage in a diplomatic offensive by lawmakers.

As a consequence of the “Zeitenwende” Scholz observed, the German government boosted its military budget by an extraordinary €100 billion and shipped arms into a hot conflict for the first time ever. Parts of the SPD struggled with these measures and have now sent a letter signed by multiple MPs and MEPs to Scholz, titled “The weapons must be silent!”

“The escalation spiral must be stopped,” the letter reads, which calls for a “modus vivendi.”

Such a modus often refers to an agreement that allows conflicting parties to coexist in peace. On 22 August, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) found that Russia’s attack on Ukraine had seen 5,587 civilians killed and injured 7,890. 

“With every delivery of weapons, it is important to carefully weigh up and consider where the ‘red line’ lies, which could be perceived as entering the war and provoke corresponding reactions,” the lawmakers add, specifically mentioning a no-fly zone over Ukraine, and delivering fighter jets and tanks.

“Dear God, can this party still be saved? How can one be so heartless and oblivious to history?” commented Andrij Melnyk, Ukraine’s ambassador to Berlin.

German observers reacted similarly. “It’s already starting with the capitulations. If it weren’t for the fact that some MPs and MEPs were also involved, one could ignore the nonsense,” tweeted Carlo Masala, security expert. 

On Thursday (25 August), Scholz visited a training operation in Germany, where Ukrainian soldiers are trained to use Gepard anti-aircraft tanks, which will be sent to Ukraine.

The pacifist wing of the SPD, led by parliament whip Rolf Mützenich, has long been a thorn in the side of Scholz, who is not tired of repeating “Ukraine must not lose” and has ruled out peace by diktat.

Members of European Parliament in the mix

Amongst the signatories are two EU parliamentarians of the EU-SPD, Dietmar Köster, Joachim Schuster and Constanze Krehl. Krehl is on the committee for regional development and part of the parliament’s delegation to Belarus.

Schuster is vice-chair of the EU parliament’s delegation to South Africa and a member of the ECON committee, with his latest report being one on EU-Africa trade relations as a shadow rapporteur. 

Köster sits in the foreign affairs committee and delegations to Iran and the US. He is usually tasked with co-writing the parliament’s statements on the European Commission’s Bosnia-Herzegovina reports.

On the BBC today for the first time - i believe it so anyway - in explanation of the ever increasing energy caps, the  reporter said it was because of the gas wholesale price which itself had increased due to 'some Western countries shunning russian gas' (actual words!!!), and also partly because Russia having shut off some countries supply of gas. He went on to say the price spike was because those countries were now desperately trying to find alternative sources on the world markets but that the supply there was very limited.

Nothing we on here don't already know of course. But to have the media frame it like that suggests something might at last be changing in policy circles. About time too, after six months and a day, after this bloody Russian/Ukrainian war began.    

[M S E Refugee]

3 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Perhaps slightly off topic, but on the theme of politicians wanting to legislate against physics rather than take their head out of their own arse:

 

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, spunko said:

Leather-faced criminal alchy claims Climate Change is causing the cost of living crisis. More at 10.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11146627/ECB-president-Christine-Lagarde-warns-climate-change.html

Bloody climate change, causes sunny UK weather, heart attacks and prints loads of helicopter money. Wouldn’t be surprised if it masterminded the war in Ukraine too.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

37 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

its all under control they have a plan 

 

 

Just checked my map for confirmation. As I thought fuck all of the Baltic Sea is German. They're going to march east again, to meet the Russians.

[BWW]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

It gets to a point where it becomes meaningless, €1000 or €1000000, what's the difference! It's unpayable for almost everybody.

Does provide a good laugh though at how dysfunctional it all is and the inability of politicians to get a grip on it.

it.s only 1 euro per kwh which is less than double the new retailrate from oct.

[janch]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

It's an odd one - food is the one element that polos should fear most, as it's the one that gets them strung up on lamposts if they mess it up. And yet, they are wilfully messing it up. Taking over good farmland for solar, mandating fertliser is cut back, eating meat is bad etc. I don't get it.

It makes perfect sense if you think (or are planning for) the population will decrease...........I wonder what may kill a few people off before what would have been their natural age to die?

Sorry for the pessimism but I can't help but conclude this is the expected outcome for the green agenda.

[janch]

Shortage of water in China affecting everything........food, energy production and their exports:

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/chinas-water-crisis-could-trigger-global-catastrophe

[Pip321]

VOD, BT, ASHM, SYTN, HOC, D Line, Jupiter all mentioned on this thread and all looking hit over the past few days. Anyone buying?

As an aside I cant get my GDXJ to correlate with the google price, one at $27 ish on the HL, AJ Bell and Halifax share dealing sites....but google only shows me the $31 ish price which I imagine is on the US exchange. Never mind...one for another day. 

[PETR4]

Hi all, after lurking for years I think I finally have something of value to add to the “best thread on the internet”!

In answer to:

“@Starsend Posted yesterday at 12:31

I'd like to see somebody do some real analysis into what will happen to my BP shares in the event of hyper-inflation / a new currency. There must be plenty of examples in history but nobody ever talks about the things we all want to know.”

There is a very good answer to this in Brazil and Petrobras.

Since 1967 the Brazilian currency has changed 7 times, most recently to the Real in 1994 to end Brazil’s hyper inflation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian_real

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Brazil

Petrobras has been around since 1953 and is a major component of the IBOVESPA, Brazil’s stock market.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrobras

I couldn’t find any price data on the internet for Petrobras prior to 1994, however I did find this re-indexed IBOVESPA chart going back to 1963 which covers all the currency switch overs and the hyperinflation. The 35 times increase is the hyperinflation era.

https://media.moneytimes.com.br/uploads/2022/02/image5-5-1536x1083.png

It’s in this larger article (browser will translate) about investing in Brazil:

https://www.moneytimes.com.br/conteudo-de-marca/depois-do-resultado-de-petrobras-petr4-e-hora-de-comprar-analista-que-lucrou-600-com-a-queda-da-acao-muda-de-ideia-e-recomenda-compra-brdfa020/

Brazil and Petrobras have obviously had there losing and winning streaks over the years and that chart has some savage pull backs, but overtime and through adversity Petrobras has held its value against fiat currencies. I think political confiscation during a crisis would be the bigger risk. In Brazil they froze cash accounts and forced conversion onto a new currency in 1990. I don’t think they took people’s stock portfolios, and the extreme measures didn’t work in the long run anyhow!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plano_Collor

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1990-03-25-9001240707-story.html

As an aside, Brazil’s a fantastic country. I think most dosbods would love it!

Thanks all for such an amazing meeting of minds and talent.

[reformed nice guy]

I bought my first ladder in Evonik today, 52wk low

[Bus Stop Boxer]

2 hours ago, Starsend said:

New video by Alasdair Macleod. Not watched it yet but looks like a bit of a chuckle, saving it for this evening with a beer and some popcorn.

 

Note the black and white pic so you cant see his red nose.

[Starsend]

31 minutes ago, BWW said:

it.s only 1 euro per kwh which is less than double the new retailrate from oct.

Exactly! It's half price right now. We should be grabbing as much of that lovely leccy as we can while the gettings good.

[Starsend]

1 minute ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Note the black and white pic so you cant see his red nose.

I'd noticed that, incredibly red nose.

[DurhamBorn]

19 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

VOD, BT, ASHM, SYTN, HOC, D Line, Jupiter all mentioned on this thread and all looking hit over the past few days. Anyone buying?

As an aside I cant get my GDXJ to correlate with the google price, one at $27 ish on the HL, AJ Bell and Halifax share dealing sites....but google only shows me the $31 ish price which I imagine is on the US exchange. Never mind...one for another day. 

Im buying Ashmore and Ninety One at the moment,few grand of divis today from Henderson Asian Income into them between ladders.I might buy more VOD at some point,i sold down well over half my BT at the high £1.80s for a very nice profit because i wanted more outside of sterling and they have little income outside.Id be happy to add more back here,but im not.Im watching DS Smith,could ladder them and expect a smack to hit the ladders but havent set any yet.

Fund managers are hated right now,but the ones who do EMs could be diamonds hidden in full view later in the cycle.Thats my focus at the moment.Im down drafting of course,but only 7% off highs on the portfolio,very happy with that,but some big quick reds and big quick greens keep coming.

[ILikeCake]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

Perhaps slightly off topic, but on the theme of politicians wanting to legislate against physics rather than take their head out of their own arse:

 

Land of the free indeed.

[M S E Refugee]

35 minutes ago, janch said:

It makes perfect sense if you think (or are planning for) the population will decrease...........I wonder what may kill a few people off before what would have been their natural age to die?

Sorry for the pessimism but I can't help but conclude this is the expected outcome for the green agenda.

I'm probably being optimistic but I think the climate change nonsense and the engineered energy crisis is going to be a much harder sell to the NPC's than Covid was.

99% if not a 100% of humans are selfish and they have been used to free shit for decades, the tantrums will be epic!

[Starsend]

Nice juicy divi just hit my account from Henderson Far East.

I'm going to be looking for a replacement for this fund over the next couple of months; it contains too much China / Taiwan at about 33%.

The world is changing fast, China is likely to have a pop at Taiwan at some point in the next year or two. Shares could go the same way as Russian ones did. Too much risk, if it was 5% then I could stomach that.

China recently changed some of their laws - to enable them to steal foreign assets.

World is getting smaller fast in investing terms.

[marceau]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

On the BBC today for the first time - i believe it so anyway - in explanation of the ever increasing energy caps, the  reporter said it was because of the gas wholesale price which itself had increased due to 'some Western countries shunning russian gas' (actual words!!!), and also partly because Russia having shut off some countries supply of gas. He went on to say the price spike was because those countries were now desperately trying to find alternative sources on the world markets but that the supply there was very limited.

Nothing we on here don't already know of course. But to have the media frame it like that suggests something might at last be changing in policy circles. About time too, after six months and a day, after this bloody Russian/Ukrainian war began.    

Was just scrolling through the BBC's live feed on the energy situation and it's hard not to get a sense of panic developing in there. The Q&A bits come across as a bit desperate, particularly the Russia one to the effect of 'why aren't the Russians taking the pain that we are?'. Perhaps the Beeboids getting cold feet on the prog programme?

Have noticed Blair has been cropping up with increasing frequency over the last month as well. The last time I remember that happening was when all of the Islamic street terror was getting too intense. As was the case back then it looks like his various handlers are getting uncomfortable with the situation and are trying to roll the madness back. Good luck with that. 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, moneyscam said:

Winning! Germany clearly is winning the economic war it has engaged in. 

 

Knowing my chart patterns like I do, we call that one the bearish "two fingered salute"!

The inverse bullish pattern is "the V for victory" but that's not appropriate here for a number of reasons.