Have the markets priced in the next 18 months of hardship?

[Red Debt Redemption]

On 08/12/2022 at 12:12, Frank Hovis said:

 

But if the response of governments is the same - slash interest rates to the floor and the devil take the hindmost - then surely the main effect will be the same:

Asset price inflation - house prices will start going up as will share prices.

If I was a single mother in stoke interested in weighted pulls ups and cask would you advise to get a new mortgage fix in the short term or hold off? 

[Frank Hovis]

5 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

If I was a single mother in stoke interested in weighted pulls ups and cask would you advise to get a new mortgage fix in the short term or hold off? 

 

I would personally suggest holding off whilst trying to get hold of a lovely young man.

[Frank Hovis]

5 hours ago, spunko said:

How do you think Labour will sort it out - genuinely interested. Should I be looking at emigrating overseas to avoid a repeat of 75% income tax rates?

(Apparently the highest was 83%!)

 

4 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

I believe there was a 98% super tax rate at one point.

 

 

1970s Denmark won the prize for the greatest socialist disincentive to do any productive work with a top marginal rate of 102%.

 

In the 1970s, Sweden’s Social Democratic government introduced a tax regime that meant some self-employed individuals, such as well-off writers of beloved children’s books, would pay a top marginal rate of 102 percent. In response, Lindgren wrote the satirical and allegorical fairy tale “Pomperipossa in Monismania,” published in 1976 in a Stockholm newspaper. It’s the story of a children’s author who trades in writing for welfare because of confiscatory tax rates. Yes, a bit on the nose, but apparently effective as Lindgren’s tale undermined both the tax plan and the Social Democrats. (And the tax mechanism that led to such high rates was dubbed the “Pomperipossa Effect.”)

 

https://www.aei.org/economics/pippi-longstocking-and-the-opportunity-costs-of-socialism/

[Chewing Grass]

4 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

I believe there was a 98% super tax rate at one point.

 

'Let me tell you how it will be, there's one for you, nineteen for me'

First track, first sentence, Beatles Revolver Album - Taxman

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0zaebtU-CA

 

[Chewing Grass]

@Wight Flight you will like this (I think) sort of thing I've tried in the past with unobtainable traditionally made collectables.

 

[Wight Flight]

17 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

@Wight Flight you will like this (I think) sort of thing I've tried in the past with unobtainable traditionally made collectables.

 

Looks like the Beatles.

I'm out.

[Wight Flight]

30 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

 

1970s Denmark won the prize for the greatest socialist disincentive to do any productive work with a top marginal rate of 102%.

 

In the 1970s, Sweden’s Social Democratic government introduced a tax regime that meant some self-employed individuals, such as well-off writers of beloved children’s books, would pay a top marginal rate of 102 percent. In response, Lindgren wrote the satirical and allegorical fairy tale “Pomperipossa in Monismania,” published in 1976 in a Stockholm newspaper. It’s the story of a children’s author who trades in writing for welfare because of confiscatory tax rates. Yes, a bit on the nose, but apparently effective as Lindgren’s tale undermined both the tax plan and the Social Democrats. (And the tax mechanism that led to such high rates was dubbed the “Pomperipossa Effect.”)

 

https://www.aei.org/economics/pippi-longstocking-and-the-opportunity-costs-of-socialism/

You really are Frank of Dibley aren't you?I

He would have known that.

 

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, Wight Flight said:

Looks like the Beatles.

I'm out.

Nah, its about reprinting the Victorian poster on the wall using a traditional woodcut artist and antique letterpress.

[Wight Flight]

24 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Nah, its about reprinting the Victorian poster on the wall using a traditional woodcut artist and antique letterpress.

Ah. As a rule I never watch videos.

We used to have a couple of stone lithographs in the shed. Probably should have kept them.

[Frank Hovis]

44 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

You really are Frank of Dibley aren't you?I

He would have known that.

 

 

It was maybe decades ago that I read that but I remembered it because of the Pippi Longstocking author writing a story about it so making it an easy search.

[With a crooked smile]

On 08/12/2022 at 10:42, Boon said:

It'll be Labours mess to sort out, anyway

Strongly suspect your correct here. Whatever the gov can afford to give away as a pre election bribe and however much the papers get behind the cons I can't see conservatives back in power after the next election. 

[tank]

9 hours ago, spunko said:

How do you think Labour will sort it out - genuinely interested. 

It's pretty obvious what Blair and Mandelson will do once their man Keir Starmer takes the reigns.

It won't be the Bennite high tax solution that Corbyn and McDonnell would have ordered, but a far more liberal interpretation of Brexit.

They can't take the UK back into the EU under the Lisbon Treaty, but they can realign its floundering, Abdul importing, Tory loon economy with the single market. It would immediately improve the UK's bottom line GDP without the continuing need to issue a million plus third world visas a year or ramp income taxes. 

[Guest]

On 09/12/2022 at 18:09, Frank Hovis said:

1970s Denmark won the prize for the greatest socialist disincentive to do any productive work with a top marginal rate of 102%.

The UK currently has multiple points in the income spectrum at which the marginal tax rate is over 100%.

If you are a parent of a 3/4 year old in England and go from earning £99,999.99 to £100,000 pa you instantly lose 15 free childcare hours a week which at current prices is worth several thousand pounds a year of net income (even more if you have multiple children in that age bracket), all for having the temerity to earn that last penny:

https://www.gov.uk/30-hours-free-childcare

Also, the last penny that puts you into higher rate income tax (£50,270 pa) costs you the entire Marriage Allowance whereby a low/non-earning spouse can transfer some or all of their personal allowance to the higher earner, this has a potential maximum value of about £2,500 of net income.

https://www.gov.uk/marriage-allowance

No doubt there will be plenty of others as the UK tax system is a poorly-maintained mess with caps and thresholds everywhere.

[spygirl]

On 08/12/2022 at 08:27, Frank Hovis said:

The FTSE 100 is only loosely associated with the British economy and a lot of the stocks will be barely touched by recession in the UK.

Look at the constituents, loads of overseas miners, financial services like HL who make a steady return, utility and oil companies which people are going to buy anywhere.

If the UK does fall hard and sterling slides then the value of those overseas miners with non-sterling assets and earnings will shoot up.

The only obvious fallers are the non-food retailers like Burberry and the housebuilders.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FTSE_100_Index

The FTSE 250 (101-350) is far more tied to the UK.

 

And as I've noted in some areas recession actually benefits some companies as people turn to value.

Wetherspoons undercuts other pubs and as they close it benefits, and chain restaurants tend to undercut independent and the same applies.

Similarly Primark will gain trade as smaller more expensive clothes shops fold.

Primark resists move online despite pandemic shock

Discount clothing retailer says ecommerce would damage profitability as it remains committed to stores

https://www.ft.com/content/de0870bc-b883-482c-81bc-aae3ca5e8ba7

Weston is adamant Primark “is and always has been a high street retailer” and said an evolution into a home delivery ecommerce business was simply not going to happen. “At our price points and our basket sizes [online] doesn’t just take some of the margin, it takes all of it,” he said.

 

Fair enough.

 

The fashion chain’s approach to international expansion is usually to start small and learn. In the US it planted its first flags in Boston because of the strong Irish-American presence there.

But as it quickly became clear the clothes were popular with Hispanic customers, it opened stores in Florida. In New York, managers noticed that a disproportionate number of customers were from lower income groups, so Primark initially focused on the outer boroughs of New York, rather than flagships on Manhattan’s Fifth Avenue.

 

Ive never seen an adult who looks like they have any money in Primark.

Its all Polish, kids and burkas.

 

[Wight Flight]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Ive never seen an adult who looks like they have any money in Primark.

Its all Polish, kids and burkas

I did know one woman, married to a multi millionaire, who shopped there ironically as she knew none of her friends would ever be wearing the same things that she wore.

Primani.

[spygirl]

1 minute ago, Wight Flight said:

I did know one woman, married to a multi millionaire, who shopped there ironically as she knew none of her friends would ever be wearing the same things that she wore.

Primani.

Ive browsed te wimmin stuff whilst waiting for daughter to finish.

The 'party' stuff has a certain style - cheap hooker.

 

[spunko]

Primark are missing a huge trick by not being online. Millions of people simply do not go to the High Street any more.

ALDI are another one. I'd switch to ALDI if I could shop online. But I'll be damned if I have to venture into town just to shop there. Easier just to do it online via Sainsburys.

Why not test the waters and just start doing online in certain areas? If it's not profitable, then ditch it.

[Boon]

I can kind of understand why.

Return rates are around 50% for similar fashion and the shop will have to pay for the shipment out and the return back, plus the costs to process it. 

For a shop selling cheap stuff it would be sure to raise revenues quite a lot but not necessarily any profits.

Stuff that might make sense would be more expensive, slow moving items that take up lots of shop space. But I don't think they have many of those.

[MooVin]

On 09/12/2022 at 15:59, Frank Hovis said:

 

I would personally suggest holding off whilst trying to get hold of a lovely young man.

Oooh you are awful putting that up!! Where did you get it? 😂

[MooVin]

On 03/01/2023 at 09:19, spygirl said:

Primark resists move online despite pandemic shock

Discount clothing retailer says ecommerce would damage profitability as it remains committed to stores

https://www.ft.com/content/de0870bc-b883-482c-81bc-aae3ca5e8ba7

Weston is adamant Primark “is and always has been a high street retailer” and said an evolution into a home delivery ecommerce business was simply not going to happen. “At our price points and our basket sizes [online] doesn’t just take some of the margin, it takes all of it,” he said.

 

Fair enough.

 

The fashion chain’s approach to international expansion is usually to start small and learn. In the US it planted its first flags in Boston because of the strong Irish-American presence there.

But as it quickly became clear the clothes were popular with Hispanic customers, it opened stores in Florida. In New York, managers noticed that a disproportionate number of customers were from lower income groups, so Primark initially focused on the outer boroughs of New York, rather than flagships on Manhattan’s Fifth Avenue.

 

Ive never seen an adult who looks like they have any money in Primark.

Its all Polish, kids and burkas.

 

Worked for part of ABF for 32 years and now in another division, have met and shaken hands with George Weston, very brief meeting but he seemed fairly normal for a multi billionaire, unlike one of his CEOs at the time who always was an arrogant c**t!! He has a seriously disabled young son that all his money isn’t going to cure and I think that reflects his outlook on life to a point.

[belfastchild]

On 03/01/2023 at 13:06, spunko said:

Primark are missing a huge trick by not being online. Millions of people simply do not go to the High Street any more.

Primarks customers are very loyal, they see it as a day out. They can get the bus in to town, buy something and come home for very little.
Ive done some work involving Primark in the past and when the store in Belfast burned down there was a palpable loss to a lot of people (I bought the first clothes Id ever bought myself in Primark), a lot of people I know in well paying professional jobs did work experience/summer/student jobs in Primark.
There were queues for the Belfast shop reopening, there were even queues when the temporary shop reopened and they kept everyones job open as well.
I can only speak for Belfast, Dublin, Liverpool city centres as thats all Ive visited in the last 2 months but if anyone is carrying a shopping bag in those city centres during the day, I will bet you the most are Primark/Pennies.

Online does have its advantages but women like to go out, meet friends/family and be seen buying things.

[Funn3r]

Primark are brilliant at buying stock and managing stores but have been held back by their internal IT, which you might characterise as "a bodge." Rumour has it that they spent megabucks on a new one. I haven't heard how it's going but I have my suspicions.