Yes we will get distressed mortgage payers, but do you think they will be repossessed? Not a chance

[haroldshand]

Something just dawned on me today and it is going piss a lot of people off hoping that they will be able to snap up a cheap distressed house someone has been kicked out of in a couple of years. I would just ask yourself to take a long hard look at woke Britain, look at the fact that Immigrants are landing on our shores daily and put in comfortable 4 start hotels and spas, £100's Billions of free money is handed out to the work shy and lazy and anyone who can prove the slightest case of victimhood is looked after financially, basically our politicians are cowards and hate negative MSM.

Now ask yourself in 18 months time and 100'000's of couples cannot meet their mortgage payments and have no chance ever doing so again, do you honestly think out politicians are going to be seen throwing families out of their homes?

It's not going to happen in today's Britain

[Bobthebuilder]

Bollocks.

[Axeman123]

, how exactly would that be implemented?

Make the banks whole with printed money? Weimar

De Facto nationalise the banks without compensation, and no-one pays their mortgage ever again? Weimar, and tenants start wanting a free house too. Without mortgage finance (because who would lend under that threat?) houses effectively go cash sales only.

I don't doubt that banks will give forebearance for anyone making the right noises, and be given mark to book discretion by regulators as a sweetener. The big thing is I expect people to start demanding mortgage balances marked down to new lower market values, and that will have to be nipped in the bud. People will be walking away from mortgages IMO.

For all your "anything for a quiet life" examples of govt behaviour, what about the current strikes over pay? A lot of iron will on display by govt there IMO, especially considering how damaging the rail etc strikes are for the economy. If 10% wage rises would be too inflationary, what would a de facto 50% pay rise for many people from not having to pay a third of their takehome on a mortgage anymore do?

Interesting times though.

[AWW]

What do you think the politicians can do about it?

If a distressed mortgage holder can't come to a deal with the bank, for example by switching to IO, or taking a payment holiday, the property will get repossessed and sold at auction at whatever price the market supports.

That's notwithstanding the fact that housebuilders need to sell their product, and they can only do so at prices commensurate with the cost of borrowing.

[haroldshand]

4 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

, how exactly would that be implemented?

Make the banks whole with printed money? Weimar

De Facto nationalise the banks without compensation, and no-one pays their mortgage ever again? Weimar, and tenants start wanting a free house too. Without mortgage finance (because who would lend under that threat?) houses effectively go cash sales only.

I don't doubt that banks will give forebearance for anyone making the right noises, and be given mark to book discretion by regulators as a sweetener. The big thing is I expect people to start demanding mortgage balances marked down to new lower market values, and that will have to be nipped in the bud. People will be walking away from mortgages IMO.

For all your "anything for a quiet life" examples of govt behaviour, what about the current strikes over pay? A lot of iron will on display by govt there IMO, especially considering how damaging the rail etc strikes are for the economy. If 10% wage rises would be too inflationary, what would a de facto 50% pay rise for many people from not having to pay a third of their takehome on a mortgage anymore do?

Interesting times though.

Seriously, try and picture it in your head.

All the newspapers, the BBC are leading with articles of the evil Tories kicking families out of their warm homes because of their bad policies and Labour are sticking the knife in.

 

[Boon]

I don't think there are many people like that, those would be on ToS.

The optics of families getting repo'd is bad but already there is forbearance. Maybe government could ban repos if a child lives in the property, or enhance existing help if one does.

But repo's aren't going to stop. If you owe more than the property is worth and you have arranged it that you have no other assets then bankruptcy is not a bad choice.

 

[haroldshand]

7 minutes ago, AWW said:

What do you think the politicians can do about it?

If a distressed mortgage holder can't come to a deal with the bank, for example by switching to IO, or taking a payment holiday, the property will get repossessed and sold at auction at whatever price the market supports.

That's notwithstanding the fact that housebuilders need to sell their product, and they can only do so at prices commensurate with the cost of borrowing.

All I am saying is be prepared

It must be clear to most now what these political parties are prepared to do these days to stay in power and ask yourself  this if Labour win there is no chance they will be able to stand by and watch people kicked out of their homes..

Wait and see

[Wight Flight]

10 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Seriously, try and picture it in your head.

All the newspapers, the BBC are leading with articles of the evil Tories kicking families out of their warm homes because of their bad policies and Labour are sticking the knife in.

 

It happens every single day down here to renters when the landlord sells their home.

Never, ever makes the papers.

Why should this be any different?

[sancho panza]

26 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Something just dawned on me today and it is going piss a lot of people off hoping that they will be able to snap up a cheap distressed house someone has been kicked out of in a couple of years. I would just ask yourself to take a long hard look at woke Britain, look at the fact that Immigrants are landing on our shores daily and put in comfortable 4 start hotels and spas, £100's Billions of free money is handed out to the work shy and lazy and anyone who can prove the slightest case of victimhood is looked after financially, basically our politicians are cowards and hate negative MSM.

Now ask yourself in 18 months time and 100'000's of couples cannot meet their mortgage payments and have no chance ever doing so again, do you honestly think out politicians are going to be seen throwing families out of their homes?

It's not going to happen in today's Britain

Problem is with running a smorgasboard of forebearance is that it createsa moral hazard such that before you know it,the fact that some punters are getting afreebie means everyone will want it.

I think we're reaching that peculiar point in the ponzi when the efforts to extend and pretend will be the very thing that undoes it.

as @AWW says price discovery is price discovery.marignal trades set the price and they're being priced off 6% IRs not 2%.Govt doens't have the abaility to turn rates back to 2%

[AWW]

8 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

All I am saying is be prepared

It must be clear to most now what these political parties are prepared to do these days to stay in power and ask yourself  this if Labour win there is no chance they will be able to stand by and watch people kicked out of their homes..

Wait and see

I can confidently state that there is absolutely nothing any government of any stripe can do about repos. If they are outlawed, who'd pay their mortgage? If nobody pays their mortgage, which bank will lend? Then watch what happens to values...

If government attempts to fund mortgage payments, watch Gilt yields. It'll make the Truss/Kwarteng spike look like a picnic.

The only thing that stopped a ton of repos last time we were here was ZIRP. And that isn't coming back either.

[haroldshand]

1 minute ago, Wight Flight said:

It happens every single day down here to renters when the landlord sells their home.

Never, ever makes the papers.

Why should this be any different?

The one thing I have learnt in the last decade is that there are "poor struggling homeowners" and "renters",  nobody gives a f*** about them, Oh come on you must know that from the MSM.

OK, I am just putting it out there and without a doubt what I suggested will play out in the MSM and for sure in the lefty MSM, what happens with the politicians and the pressure they put on banks I am just saying be prepared

[Lightscribe]

21 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

All I am saying is be prepared

It must be clear to most now what these political parties are prepared to do these days to stay in power and ask yourself  this if Labour win there is no chance they will be able to stand by and watch people kicked out of their homes..

Wait and see

Yes property prices have seen their peak probably for decades and will drop, some areas more than others and will lose real value regardless in an inflationary cycle.

Will there be an army of house price crashists and landlords waiting to snap up cheap properties? No, because they won’t be able to.

People will default and 100s of thousands if not millions will eventually be in negative equity. Will they be chucked out? No, the banks will arrange interest only repayments on the never never. We will eventually turn to rental/subscription models for pretty much everything. CBDCs and UBI will eventually be rolled out. 

Lending will be restricted and expensive, cash rich will look at other avenues as the hassle increases exponentially (voids/eviction bans) whilst returns are increasingly taxed/diminished. Private investing in the property sector will become as popular as a fart in a lift.

Banks, pensions funds and financial institutions will become the new landlords.

[haroldshand]

5 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Yes property prices have seen their peak probably for decades and will drop, some areas more than others and will lose real value regardless in an inflationary cycle.

Will there be an army of house price crashists and landlords waiting to snap up cheap properties? No, because they won’t be able to.

People will default and 100s of thousands if not millions will eventually be in negative equity. Will they be chucked out? No, the banks will arrange interest only repayments on the never never. We will eventually turn to rental/subscription models for pretty much everything.

Lending will be restricted and expensive, cash rich will look at other avenues as the hassle increases exponentially (voids/eviction bans) whilst returns are increasingly taxed/diminished. Private investing in the property sector will become as popular as a fart in a lift.

Banks, pensions and financial institutions will become the new landlords.

you are more or less in line with how I see it.

I would love to see a return of moral hazard in so many avenues in life, sadly I suspect there is little chance of that now.

[SNACR]

19 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

you are more or less in line with how I see it.

I would love to see a return of moral hazard in so many avenues in life, sadly I suspect there is little chance of that now.

That’s one of the good arguments for Bitcoin and crypto. Idiots who put their money in it lost their shirts.

[Bobthebuilder]

19 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

you are more or less in line with how I see it.

I would love to see a return of moral hazard in so many avenues in life, sadly I suspect there is little chance of that now.

I do wish you would make your fucking mind up, whores drawers.

[haroldshand]

1 minute ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I do wish you would make your fucking mind up, whores drawers.

Oh come on Bob, that's a little below the belt

Seriously, I don't think anything can stop falling prices now and stressed mortgage holders, turfing them out is another story and that is just not the  British way anymore.

Just wait for all the press, sick child thrown into a hostel, family kicked out because they were immigrants and fight against a racist country, I can see it so clearly

[haroldshand]

9 minutes ago, SNACR said:

That’s one of the good arguments for Bitcoin and crypto. Idiots who put their money in it lost their shirts.

You are just a total prick 

Just not even worth a reply to you statement  and hand on heart and on my Mothers grave I haven't lost a penny, but won;t stop you trolling will it

[lovelyboy]

In Ireland, following the 2008 financial crisis, very few 'primary residences' were repossessed. The banks were desperate for cash and were more than willing to take pennies to the pound to shift bad debts off their books. Independent Financial Advisors were making a killing advising people to simply refuse to pay their mortgage and let the banks come begging. I'm talking about people who were perfectly able to service their debt.

My father paid £250K for a run down two bed cottage in the west or Ireland. Despite advising him against it, he was too wrapped up in the housing mania to listen. Anyway, he had the last laugh when the bank accepted £60K in full settlement of the debt. No one thought to ask how a poor impoverished pensioner could pull £60K out of his back pocket just like that. No one thought to look at his pension income which was above the national average in addition to his full state pension.

The Irish government made the decision to go cap in hand to the IMF then let the tax payer foot the bill to pay off the IMF loan. The banks suffered, the developers suffered, the taxpayer suffered, but it was a small lottery win for most borrowers. If you don't believe me, read the following blog. In the whole country, the number of repossessions barely got above double figures per year...

Actual repossessions versus perceived repossessions | Irish Mortgage Brokers

[Noallegiance]

34 minutes ago, lovelyboy said:

In Ireland, following the 2008 financial crisis, very few 'primary residences' were repossessed. The banks were desperate for cash and were more than willing to take pennies to the pound to shift bad debts off their books. Independent Financial Advisors were making a killing advising people to simply refuse to pay their mortgage and let the banks come begging. I'm talking about people who were perfectly able to service their debt.

My father paid £250K for a run down two bed cottage in the west or Ireland. Despite advising him against it, he was too wrapped up in the housing mania to listen. Anyway, he had the last laugh when the bank accepted £60K in full settlement of the debt. No one thought to ask how a poor impoverished pensioner could pull £60K out of his back pocket just like that. No one thought to look at his pension income which was above the national average in addition to his full state pension.

The Irish government made the decision to go cap in hand to the IMF then let the tax payer foot the bill to pay off the IMF loan. The banks suffered, the developers suffered, the taxpayer suffered, but it was a small lottery win for most borrowers. If you don't believe me, read the following blog. In the whole country, the number of repossessions barely got above double figures per year...

Actual repossessions versus perceived repossessions | Irish Mortgage Brokers

This playbook assumes that there is worthwhile currency to create to make people whole.

[MightyTharg]

Haven’t they incentivised the banks to repossess? Under the Mortgage Guarantee Scheme the banks just need to find someone who can’t afford a 200,000 house, offer them a mortgage, repossess and then a bank buys it for 160,000. Rinse and repeat.

The bank makes 40,000 a go from the taxpayer.

If the bank doesn’t repossess at 160,000 then they risk making a loss. Why would they do that when there’s endless free money available?

[spygirl]

10 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Bollocks.

Agree.

The level of financial fuckwittery over the last ~20y is off scale.

Theres just been not enough wage increases to ride thru the bump.

 

 

[BurntBread]

14 hours ago, haroldshand said:

The one thing I have learnt in the last decade is that there are "poor struggling homeowners" and "renters",  nobody gives a f*** about them, Oh come on you must know that from the MSM.

The one thing I have learnt in the last decade is that the powers that be have more or less total control over the narrative, at least as far as the average man is concerned.

If there are large numbers of people being repossessed, then once upon a time the simplest solution would have been a financial one to kick the problem into the long grass. If the government no longer has the ability to do that (inflation/exchange rates/no QE), then the simplest solution is surely for the evictions just to not to make it into the public discourse.

Witness, for example: election fraud, mass rapes, vaccine injuries, Nordstream sabotage etc. You can argue that they are all going to spill out into the public square, but none of them have yet, and the government seems to be quite happy to rely on censorship even when the truth is staring people in the face.

Labour don't need to use evictions to get into power: they will get into power anyway. Why would they want an unsolvable problem as the first item on their to-do list? Even if they weren't the same organisation of crooks from the same public schools, they would be happy to have the problem "ignored" for them by the controlled press.

Maybe some financial or regulatory rabbit could be pulled out the hat, but as Flighty says, they are quite happy to ignore evictions for one group, so why not do the lazy thing and ignore another group? A controlled press really is a super-power. Maybe that is what the CIA bought with the $2.3T they lost down the back of the sofa in 2001 (or the $200B they saved by only going in LEO thirty odd years before).

[dnb24]

@haroldshand

the BOE have stopped financing the welfare budget- (they had been doing this for 10years- and now the BOE have stopped, the gov are having to scrape together as much as they can through the freezing of tax brackets etc), so if the BOE aren’t printing the welfare budget now, then they aren’t going to prop up housing with bailouts for distressed buyers.

[haroldshand]

14 hours ago, lovelyboy said:

In Ireland, following the 2008 financial crisis, very few 'primary residences' were repossessed. The banks were desperate for cash and were more than willing to take pennies to the pound to shift bad debts off their books. Independent Financial Advisors were making a killing advising people to simply refuse to pay their mortgage and let the banks come begging. I'm talking about people who were perfectly able to service their debt.

My father paid £250K for a run down two bed cottage in the west or Ireland. Despite advising him against it, he was too wrapped up in the housing mania to listen. Anyway, he had the last laugh when the bank accepted £60K in full settlement of the debt. No one thought to ask how a poor impoverished pensioner could pull £60K out of his back pocket just like that. No one thought to look at his pension income which was above the national average in addition to his full state pension.

The Irish government made the decision to go cap in hand to the IMF then let the tax payer foot the bill to pay off the IMF loan. The banks suffered, the developers suffered, the taxpayer suffered, but it was a small lottery win for most borrowers. If you don't believe me, read the following blog. In the whole country, the number of repossessions barely got above double figures per year...

Actual repossessions versus perceived repossessions | Irish Mortgage Brokers

Thank You.

You have just highlighted my one major concern with an actual real life example and I might add the UK also did the same with people with huge personal/credit card debt 2008-10 who were struggling and banks took a "better than nothing" stance.

I was sick to death of hearing bragging c***s boasting  they paid £12,000 to clear £55,000 debts, nobody ever questioning where the £12,000 came from

[belfastchild]

15 hours ago, lovelyboy said:

In Ireland, following the 2008 financial crisis, very few 'primary residences' were repossessed. The banks were desperate for cash and were more than willing to take pennies to the pound to shift bad debts off their books. Independent Financial Advisors were making a killing advising people to simply refuse to pay their mortgage and let the banks come begging. I'm talking about people who were perfectly able to service their debt.

My father paid £250K for a run down two bed cottage in the west or Ireland. Despite advising him against it, he was too wrapped up in the housing mania to listen. Anyway, he had the last laugh when the bank accepted £60K in full settlement of the debt. No one thought to ask how a poor impoverished pensioner could pull £60K out of his back pocket just like that. No one thought to look at his pension income which was above the national average in addition to his full state pension.

The Irish government made the decision to go cap in hand to the IMF then let the tax payer foot the bill to pay off the IMF loan. The banks suffered, the developers suffered, the taxpayer suffered, but it was a small lottery win for most borrowers. If you don't believe me, read the following blog. In the whole country, the number of repossessions barely got above double figures per year...

Actual repossessions versus perceived repossessions | Irish Mortgage Brokers

I was about to come on and post something similar. There were repossessions in the North but every one I heard of was where people voluntarily gave back the keys after the banks said they were going to repossess after trying every possible route to keep them paying something, anything.
One of my good mates fell into this category, wife kicked him out of the home as he was working all hours trying to save his business, bought a big house (could afford it) to make sure the kids could be housed (3 teens) when they came to visit, lost a couple of contracts and business went pop. Took in lodgers but a few of those refused to pay after a while so eventually he just gave the keys back and said fuck it, ended up in my spare room for a few weeks.

Another mate almost identical situation except he was employed finally sold the flat he bought at the peak during divorce last year. Sold it at a 60k paper loss but had been paying the mortgage anyway for 12 years so had paid it down.

BTLs in my street went very quickly, were taken over by NAMA but that was years in the resolution where they continued to rent to the sitting tenants and eventually sold on but you are talking about 10 years or so later so prices werent that  bad. The BTLs were fair game but it was the large scale buyers and funds that bought them, not joe public.

As lovelyboy said, the level of write offs (if you could afford to pay, which is key) was ridiculous. I said to a few people who had means to do exactly what was mentioned above, say they were in difficulty and ask for a settlement figure to just fuck off. I tell people with 5 years or so left on their mortgages now to do the same. Very few takers over the last couple of years due to the cheap loans but might well be a feature soon enough.